Global Climate Update and Global Warming Odds and Ends; Cooler Air Set To Move Into Ohio Valley September 30, 2008

Polar Bear Practicing In Case Forecast Was True

The forecast is pretty much on track. Front comes through on Tuesday. Late Monday night with some rain showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder but, generally, not much to write home about. Perhaps a quarter of an inch or so…its the first general rain we’ve had for some time and anything you get will be welcome and the last real chance for some time to come. The only real changes are that we feel like that an upper level disturbance rotating around the main storm center will bring some clouds on Wednesday and the clouds on Tuesday will erode in the afternoon before we get some cloud cover back on Wednesday with perhaps some light showers. Otherwise, we will go from above average temperatures to well below seasonal averages for the balance of the week before we warm up into the weekend.

August 2008 Climate Map

Global Warming Odds and Ends: Here are some items that I have been storing up for a day when it was rather boring in the weather department and boring on the history front. First is the global climate conditions for July. It was one of the rare occurences in many months that the global temperatures have been warmer than the 20 year average. Note that June was globally cooler than average and that La Nina was reported to have been waning. Here is a post regarding previous months. Here’s the July report:

UAH July

Here’s the August preliminary global climate report. August was slightly colder globally. There was almost an equal split between the northern and southern hemispheres.

UAH August Global Climate Report

Arctic Ice Began Growing Again 09.12.08

If you recall, at the beginning of the summer, we had all sorts of articles warning of the polar ice caps melting away and the risk of Santa Claus having his home end up in the frigid ocean waters. We had visions of polar bears swimming endlessly. At the time, I pointed out that the writers trumpeted a headline that suggested such doom. Yet, if you read down many paragraphs into the article, then you find that the probability of the headline becoming fact was not as high as suggested. In fact, the amount of sea-ice was actually a little greater than at the same time the previous year. Late this summer, I found a similar article. This one said that the sea ice at the poles were the second smallest in recorded history, which goes back to those ancient days of 1979. That is one way to look at it. Another way to look at it was that the amount of sea ice had grown over the previous summer and then asked the open-ended question as to whether this was a trend or an anomaly. They could have had the headline “Arctic Sea Ice Increases by 9 Percent” Or they could have said “Arctic Sea Ice increases to 1.7 million square miles!” But no…instead it says that this years sea ice came close to the lowest total ever.

In any event, THIS ARTICLE shows a far cry from the fear of Santa swimming with his reindeer and certainly indicates a bit of editorializing on the part of the headline writer, if not the AP writer, who seems to be nameless.

IPCC Hockey Stick vs True Graph

Much has been made about the IPCC report and it is being used as gospel regarding the last word on Global Warming. Mr. Gore has suggested it means that the debate is over. However, I have been reading many articles by learned folks who take issue with the IPCC Report. One of the things that they question is the Hockey Stick Graph (see previous post), which the IPCC subsequently admitted was not correct and quietly changed it to something that at least is closer to what the data suggested, which was a big warm up back in the times of the Vikings living in Greenland. Also, it reflected somewhat the time that is commonly known as the mini-ice age which was partly resposible for the immigration of Europeans to North America.

Another problem is that they have with report is that they used work by people who did not go through peer-review. Typically, before data can be used as evidence in an academic work, it must go through a review process by other academians to test the views presented. Most of the time, the citations would have been previously published after which they would have gone through more peer review. Apparently, much of the key parts of the IPCC report did not go through the process. Further, the guys who were drawing the conclusions were also some of the same guys who wrote the evidence that was never reviewed by anyone. You might call that a stacked deck.

Here is a letter from members of the US House of Representatives questioning the IPCC Methodology and asking for explanations. Congressional Letter to IPCC Chairman Dr. Rajendra Pachauri asking for some explanation.

If that is not enough….

Here is a letter from scholars asking the same chairman, Dr. Pachauri, to “admit that there is no observational evidence in measured data going back 22,000 years or even millions of years that CO2 levels (whether from man or nature) have driven or are driving world temperatures.” Pretty tough.

Here is the letter calling on the IPCC to make yet another admission of error.

****************

Now. earlier this year the head of the Associated Press, Ron Fournier, said he wanted the writers to abandon the just-the-facts approach to writing news and instead encouraged first person accounts and to include the writer’s personal emotions.(Here’s a related opinion piece) In my journalism class, that would have gotten an “F”. Where are you Griff Singer when we need you? I’ve noticed a whole lot of editorializing of late, even more than usual, especially in the area of headlines and how stories are written. This is very true with the reporting of Global Warming. I’ve cited another example here on this post. I would also suggest that the open letters that I’ve included here questioning the IPCC report may have been reported, but were probably buried whereas the actual IPCC report was brought out at the top of newspapers and tv broadcasts. Yes, people have questioned the report that Mr. Gore claims is settled science, but not too many people know that its been questioned or by whom. I wonder how many people know that the infamous hockey stick graph was quietly replaced after enough people complained of its inaccuracy? I wonder how many Americans would be on board the current climate bandwagon if Mr. Gore’s movie had revealed that data that may not have been reviewed and that those writing the conclusions were the same people who wrote the non-reviewed data were the very same people? All I am advocating is pure, straight truth. I question whether or not that is possible to achieve when those orchestrating the report is a necessarily political body such as the United Nations. This subject needs to be put solely into the academic arena and out of the hands of politicians, or politician turned film-makers.

Salacious Stories: Man’s Penis Amputated Without Knowledge; Father Kills Naked Man In Daughter’s Room with Bare Hands September 29, 2008

In a shameless attempt to increase blogviews, I have stooped to publishing a page with two salacious stories that are sure to pique the interest of the minions.

First off, here is a story of a man who hears his teenage daughter scream.  He rushed to her bedroom to find a naked man, wearing a ski-mask and latex gloves with a bunch of condoms.  Dad choked the man to death.  Turns out the guy had a heart condition and he was a convicted sex-offender.  Still…dad choked the man to death.  It does not appear that the Indiana authorities will charge dad.  In Texas, they’d give him a parade.  Chuck Norris would be proud….and I bet we know who this young woman’s hero will be for the rest of her life.    Click Here for the story.

Lorena Bobbit in the Operating Room?

How would you like to go to the doctor, thinking that you were getting a simple circumcision and waking up to find out that the doctor took a little more liberty.  The guy thought he was getting a little extra skin removed but the doctor decided the man had cancer.  So, while the man was out cold, the doctor apparently unilaterally determined it was time to whack the wanker!  Click Here for the story and associated video.  Just the VIDEO HERE

No More Bull and No More Hurricane Kyle September 29, 2008

Davis Declares No More Bull

if you hurry, you may be able to catch the tropical storm kyle radar loop by CLICKING HERE before it scoots off out of radar range into Canada. just navigate away from the ohio valley default location and move northeast, then click animate to loop.

We have one more day of warmer than average temperatures before we do a flip-flop. We’ve had below average rain totals for every month this summer and it is carrying into fall. A cold front coming through early Tuesday will bring some light showers but nothing of real consequence. While I think everyone will get some rain, you will be hard pressed to find anyone who got a quarter inch before it comes to an end midday on Tuesday. Highs for the rest of the week will be in the upper 60’s and low 70’s and over night lows for a couple of nights will be in the low 40’s. It would not surprise me to see some folks in the outlying areas get to the upper 30’s on Thursday morning and maybe Friday morning as well. We warm up some over next weekend but no real rain is in the offing.

Tropical Storm Kyle Satellite IR image 0929 0245Z

Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Track 0928 11pm

Tropical Storm Kyle: Yes, we’re back to a tropical storm and it is no longer Hurricane Kyle. Most of Sunday it held on to the more robust moniker though it didn’t deserve it. The winds were about the only thing that was hurricane about it. It was a becoming a cold core low with arguably a front extending from it, was over water temperatures in the 50’s and the air temperatures were in the low 60’s. Nothing really tropical about it but since it had already been a hurricane, might as well keep it as that designation to keep the public up to speed. It made landfall east of Maine and will be moving quickly to and through the Gulf of St. Lawrence and into Quebec by Monday night. Canadian officials are concerned that people inland aren’t taking the storm seriously and so thats why its well enough that they kept the more menacing designation for as long as they did. We can tell you in Louisville, winds of 40-60 mph for several hours and cause a lot of damage and make for a lot of headaches. Look to the bottom for the National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion.

On This Date in History: Union General William “Bull” Nelson got his name from being a big, bearish man who used his physical size to intimidate others. He had initially been an officer in the navy and somehow became a general in the army. But the Bull was butchered in the Galt House in Louisville on this date in 1862. Not only was he murdered by another Union General named Jefferson Davis, he met his demise in the presence of the Governor of Indiana.

In the summer of 1862, while General Don Carlos Buell was wandering around Tennessee with his Louisville based Army of the Ohio building railroads following the battle of Shiloh, the contingent of men left to defend Louisville was left to one of Buell’s subordinates, Nelson. Confederate General Braxton Bragg began a campaign into Kentucky and the fear was he would get to Louisville before Buell could return. So, while Buell was plodding along back to Louisville, Nelson started putting cannon on the Indiana side of the river so he could shell the city if the Confederates ever invaded. For some reason, Bragg didn’t come to Louisville…probably a blunder…though he was probably fearful of the reception he would get from the populous. So, as Buell’s army trickled back in, Nelson spied Gen. Jeff Davis of Indiana ordering his men to dig in. Bull didn’t think much of that and let Davis know.

Davis wasn’t pleased but instead of manning up and facing Bull, he ran back to Indianapolis and fetched Indiana Governor Oliver Morton and on the evening of September 29 1862 in the stairwell of the Galt House in Louisville, tough guy Davis confronted Nelson. He challenged the powerful Nelson to a duel who, in front of Morton, rebuffed Davis with a scoff and then with the back of his hand when pressed. Nelson went up the stairs and our hero Davis grabbed a pistol, ran up the stairs and shot General Nelson dead. Before he died, Nelson tried to cover all of his bases by getting baptized but that didn’t help with the post mortem scales of justice. See, Buell had Davis arrested but Buell got fired about two months later following the battle of Perryville. With Buell out of the way and the main witness being a good Republican Governor from a Union State, Davis never faced trial and so the murder of a Union General in front of several witnesses was never “solved.” And so ends another tale of courage and justice during the Civil War and it all happened at the Galt House.

No word on whether or not Davis spent the rest of his life looking on golf courses for the real killer.

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH KYLE…AND THE SYSTEM WAS UNCLASSIFIABLE USING THE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE. CONSEQUENTLY…KYLE IS CONSIDERED TO BE
EXTRATROPICAL AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. A QUIKSCAT PASS
AT 23Z SHOWED ONE HURRICANE FORCE WIND VECTOR. THE MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE ASSUMED TO HAVE DECREASED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KT. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER NEW BRUNSWICK.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/23…WHICH IS LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF KYLE IS BEING ERODED BY THE LARGE LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC…AND AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE
BYPASSES KYLE TO THE NORTH ITS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MISSED THE
MORE NORTHWARD TURN THIS EVENING…AND AS A RESULT I’VE PLACED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 18Z UKMET.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 44.8N 65.9W 60 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 29/1200Z 47.2N 64.6W 50 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 30/0000Z 49.5N 63.7W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/1200Z 50.6N 63.7W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 01/0000Z 51.5N 64.0W 25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 02/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Hurricane Kyle Headed Toward A Cold Demise September 28, 2008

Hurricane Kyle Satellite IR Image 0928 2045Z

 

For a Hurricane Kyle Radar Image as it moves through the Gulf of Maine, CLICK HERE, but you better do so fast as the storm is moving quickly.  Just navigate from the Ohio Valley default region to the northeast.  Hit animate to loop and you can add clouds and lightning if it suits your fancy.

Hurricane Kyle Forecast Track 0928 5pm

Hurricane Kyle is behaving.  If it were being analyzed for the first time, it probably would not be called a hurricane.  But, since it was, then it is.  It is rapidly losing tropical characteristics and even looks to have a frontal zone associated with it. Certainly you can see its more of a classical comma shape than a tropical cyclone.  It is over waters that are less than 60 degrees.  Remember, you need at least 80 degrees for a tropical cyclone.  But, the winds remain high so why not keep it designated as a hurricane for public consumption so people won’t get lackadasical.  In the report below you see them reference the buoy that at 1pm edt reported seas of 36 feet.  The water temperature at that location 170 NM east of Hyannisport, MA was 55 degrees and the air temperature was 61.  Not exactly a tropical paradise.  Nevertheless, its a pretty good storm and will quickly zip north toward Northeast Quebec or perhaps into New Foundland. 

HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

KYLE IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING…A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM…AND AN ASYMMETRIC
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN.  EARLIER TODAY…AT ABOUT 1600 UTC…NOAA
DATA BUOY 44011 REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 51 KT WITH A
GUST TO 72 KT AT AN INSTRUMENT HEIGHT OF 5 METERS.  THE BUOY ALSO
REPORTED 36-FOOT SEAS WHICH LIKELY CAUSED SOME SHELTERING OF THE
ANEMOMETER…AND UNDER-REPORTING OF THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.  THE
BUOY ALSO REPORTED A LOWEST PRESSURE OF 987.1 WITH WINDS OF 31
KT…SUGGESTING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 984 MB.  THESE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT KYLE MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER…GIVEN THE RECENT DETERIORATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN AND COLDER WATERS…KYLE MAY NOW JUST BARELY BE AT
HURRICANE INTENSITY.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH OF A BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE…I.E. THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CYCLONE… AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM IN A DAY OR TWO.
CONSEQUENTLY THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS…
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 030/22.  IN SPITE OF THE RECENT
ACCELERATION…THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD
SPEED WILL SLOW WITHIN 12 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS WEAKEN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/2100Z 42.7N  66.1W    65 KT
12HR VT     29/0600Z 45.1N  64.7W    55 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
24HR VT     29/1800Z 47.7N  63.3W    45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     30/0600Z 49.5N  63.0W    35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT     30/1800Z 50.5N  63.5W    25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT     01/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Kyle Threatens New England and A Kind Act That Changed the World? September 28, 2008

Boats Like This (minus the girl) Nearly Did Me In

The forecast was right on target for most of the area on Saturday…unless you live in the city. The clouds were in the area for the morning and broke up just about everywhere except Louisville.  Consequently, much of the outlying area made it up to the lower 80’s while the city only struggled to the mid 70’s.  Snow White and I went sculling but as we made our way down the creek to the Ohio River, we noticed it was particularly rough with a wave crashing over me like I was the SS Poseiden.  So, we turned and went back up the creek. Behind us we heard the roar of engines and saw about 8 big power boats go racing by.  Had we gone upstream I probably would have been chopped in half or swamped by those big ole boats you used to see at the beginning of Miami Vice.  Anyway, we turned around and will have the chance to enjoy plenty of sunshine on Sunday as the remnant of Invest 94 moves up the spine of the Appalacians.  A weak front approaches on Monday but the real story is another front on Tuesday.  It may bring a few largely insignificant showers on Monday night or Tuesday morning but more significantly will provide some below seasonal average Canadian Air to start off October.

Hurricane Kyle Satellite IR Image 0928 0315Z

Hurricane Kyle Forecast Track 0927 11PM

Hurricane Kyle:

  So far, the tropical cyclone known as Kyle is behaving quite well once it finally

Hurricane Kyle Spaghetti Model 0928 00Z

 got off the snide and got out of the Dominican Republic. It became a hurricane late Saturday afternoon as it moved NE of an area of low pressure in the Appalacians (Invest 94) into a window of more favorable winds aloft.  It developed a concentric center of storms around the main circulation and pressures dropped.  It will continue to move generally north at some 25-35 mph which puts it just east of Maine in New Brunswick by Sunday evening. The forecast track graphic is from the US Navy Naval Research Lab as it has a bit more detail than the NHC version…but its based on the NHC forecast. It’s moving so fast that there is not a lot of things that can happen to change the general track.  By that time, it’s forecast to have run into some colder air as well as some strong

Hurricane Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0928 00Z

westerlies that will mess it up. But so what, they’ll have near hurricane conditions around an area that most people don’t associate with tropical weather but they should.  Having a hurricane go that far north is not unprecedented by any stretch and I suggest you totally discount anyone, regardless of credibility, who claims that it is evidence of Global Warming.  I haven’t heard it yet but I would not be surprised if someone doesn’t try to make that claim.   Look to the bottom of the post for the National Hurricane Center Hurricane Kyle Forecast Discussion and then to the marine forecast for off the Massachusetts Coast.

On This Date in History:  Have you ever seen one of those Star Trek episodes that deals with time travel?  In one Kirk is in the 1920’s and if he knows a woman (Joan Collins) will be killed in a car accident and he has the ability to save her life. But Spock tells him that if he does save her, then all of history will be changed and that even the world that they know in the 23rd century would be altered, perhaps negavtively.  So, Kirk as usual lets his loins do the thinking and he tries to save her even though it means the end to humanity as he knows it.  But Bones comes to the rescue and keeps Kirk from saving the woman.  Too bad Bones wasn’t around in 1918.

British Private Henry Tandey was serving in the 5th Duke of Wellington Regiment near the French village of Marcoing.  On this date in 1918, toward the end of a battle, the Germans were in retreat and a wounded German soldier came into his line of fire.  Tandey later said he just couldn’t bring himself to shoot a wounded man.   The German soldier nodded in thanks for Tandey’s kindness and disappeared.  A photograph that appeared in London newspapers of Tandey carrying a wounded soldier at the the First Battle of Ypres in 1914 was later put on canvas by Italian artist Fortunino Matania that glorified the Allied war effort.  Move ahead a couple of decades.

Hitler Recognized The Man Carrying the Wounded Soldier

In 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain traveled to Germany to meet with German Chancellor Adolph Hitler as part of his effort to prevent another war.  Hitler took Chamberlain to his country retreat in Bavaria where he showed the British Prime Minister a copy of the painting by Matania.  Now, it was odd that Hitler would have such a painting because his motivation for building the Nazi party and gaining control of Germany was due to the humiliating defeat and armistice following World War I.  Some evidence suggests that Hitler did indeed have the copy of the painting as early as 1937.  Why would he have a painting that depicted the defeat over Germany?  When Hitler showed the painting to Chamberlain, he said, “That’s the man who nearly shot me.”

Now, this tale cannot be totally verified and is generally chalked up as legend.  There is no way to actually prove that the man whose life Tandey spared in an act of compassion was really Hitler.  But, I think its safe to say that Hitler thought it was the case.  And if it was so, then think of how many millions of lives might have been saved and how history may have been altered if the man who confronted the young German soldier on the battlefield had been a mean, hard-ass soldier instead of one of humanity and compassion.  Had Hitler not lived, then there not only may not have been World War II, but also the rise of the Soviet Union may not have come about and then no Cold War.  Would the atomic bomb have become a reality?  Would the post war economic boom in the US taken place?  With no Soviet Union, then perhaps there would have been no drive to put a man on the moon.  Who knows.  It’s a kinda fun exercise to think of such things but largely not relevant and an exercise in futility.  It’s best to look forward because in our individual lives and our large-scale collective lives, we live in the world in which we are given left to play the hand which we are dealt.  Here is a full rendition of the story.

HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

KYLE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A VERY ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN FOR A
HURRICANE.  THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION…DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.  THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES
DECREASED A LITTLE…HOWEVER…THE CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND THE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS…AND KYLE
REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE.  ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
SAMPLING THE STORM AROUND 0600 UTC.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE VERY STRONG…BUT DIVERGENT FLOW
OVER THE HURRICANE.  IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AND KYLE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
THEREFORE…THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  KYLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER
SSTS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM WITHIN 24 HOURS…SO THE NEW FORECAST
NOW SHOWS SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO KYLE REACHING THE COAST.  THIS
FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS KYLE AS A HURRICANE
FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS…THEN SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
HOWEVER…ONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THERE IS LITTLE PRACTICAL
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65 KT HURRICANE.
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON AFTER REACHING
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/20 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE
TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGE A LITTLE EASTWARD…BUT IT REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS.  IN ABOUT 48
HOURS…THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AS KYLE
INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS
DECELERATION DURING THAT TIME…BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT KYLE WILL
BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/0300Z 36.2N  69.5W    65 KT
12HR VT     28/1200Z 39.5N  68.8W    65 KT
24HR VT     29/0000Z 43.7N  67.2W    60 KT
36HR VT     29/1200Z 47.2N  65.1W    45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT     30/0000Z 49.2N  64.0W    35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     01/0000Z 51.0N  63.0W    30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT     02/0000Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

ANZ254-280815-
 COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
 OUT 20 NM-
 1143 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008
 
 TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT
 

 REST OF TONIGHT
 TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE WINDS
 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS AROUND 7 FT. SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG. VSBY 1 TO
 3 NM.

 SUN
 TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. E WINDS 30 TO 35 KT…
 BECOMING N 35 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 50 KT. SEAS
 AROUND 10 FT…BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S AND E OF
 NANTUCKET…SEAS AROUND 14 FT… BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE
 AFTERNOON. SHOWERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON…THEN SHOWERS LIKELY
 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. VSBY
 1 TO 3 NM UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

 SUN NIGHT
 TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NW WINDS 25 TO
 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT…BECOMING W 15 TO 20 KT AFTER
 MIDNIGHT. SEAS AROUND 13 FT… SUBSIDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
 A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

Tropical Storm Kyle’s Troubles; Uncle Tom’s Misrepresentation; Super Collider’s Demise? September 27, 2008

Hurricane Ike Turned This Fishing Boat Into the SS Minnow

for a whole mess of hurricane ike damage photos, videos and stories, CLICK HERE and scroll down through the blog

for updates on hurricane kyle, CLICK HERE and scroll to most recent heading of Hurricane Kyle

The area of low pressure followed the forecast and moved inland and is now to our east-southeast. Light showers have largely been confined to the east and southeast of Louisville and have been largely insignificant. This trend will continue. See, moisture being tapped in the Atlantic has a tough time getting over the Appallacian Mountains. Anyway, the weekend looks good for activities with cool nights and warm afternoons, though not hot like we saw earlier in the week. The big chilldown is still in the cards for the early to mid part of next week. The transition in the first part of the week may provide a much better chance for area rain.

Tropical Storm Kyle Visible Satellite 0926 2115Z

Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Track 0926 5PM

Tropical Storm Kyle: Kyle continues to have problems. The tropical storm is stiil

Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model 0926 18Z

in the grips of upper level winds that have messed it up. The visible satellite image shows clearly that the left side of the storm is devoid of convection and even largely absent of clouds. If it had come off of the Dominican Republic sooner then it may have not faced such a hostile environment. So, it’s Kyle’s own fault that it’s having such a tough time. The vertical structure is skewed to the northeast and, until or if it can stack itself up properly, it’s not going become a hurricane. As it moves even with the area of low pressure, formerly Invest 94, that is in the Eastern US, then the upper shears will give it an opportunity to get itself righted and perhaps become a hurricane. That’s what the forecast calls for. But, I’m not so sure its going to have enough time. While the forward speed forecast has been slowed a bit, its still going to be moving at a pretty good clip and as quickly as it moves into a good environment it will move back into one that is not so forgiving. About a third of the models want to make it a hurricane with a couple even up to Cat 2. The ultimate track continues to depend on the ridge in the Atlantic. If it’s fat enough and strong enough, then Kyle could threaten New England. But most of the guidance and the official forecast keeps it just off the main coast and moves it into Nova Scotia. This scenario would bring rough seas and surf to New England but the storm itself would largely be Canada’s problem. Look to the bottom for the National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion and the Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0926 18Z.

Big Bang or Big Bust?

Super Collider in Super Trouble? The Large Hadron Collider that brought fears of the world’s demise getting swallowed up into a self-induced black hole is in a bit of a pickle. I know of people who prayed that if the start-up of the device was not part of God’s plan to not let it go forth. Well, US Grant had a pet phrase, “man proposes, God disposes.” Perhaps that holds true. At least it is true for the near term as the very large and complicated machine has a major glitch. An electrical connection failed and caused a section of the magnets associated with the accelerator to fail. Early reports were that the big electron race track would be out of commission for two months. Now, some reports push the start up back to next year. The bigger they come, the harder they fall and the more complicated the machine, the greater the risk of failures. So, if you were waiting for the end of the world, you’ll have to wait a bit longer. Here’s the story.

On This Date in History: On this date in 1852, the first successful stage dramatization of Harriet Beecher Stowe’s Uncle Tom’s Cabin took place in Troy, NY. The key word here is “successful.” Stowe herself had tried to bring the novel to the stage but it failed. How could that be? The book sold over 300,000 copies in the first year. Well, if you have read the novel, then you know that it was a huge attack on the slave culture. President Lincoln, upon meeting Stowe said, “so this is the little woman who made this big war.” Obviously that was a bit of an overstatement and unfair to put that war on her head. But, it did play a role. While she had only seen one plantation, Stowe went to former slave Frederick Douglass for help in detailing slave life. Stowe was inspired by the passage of the Fugitive Slave Act of 1850 that allowed for slaves who had escaped to non-slave states in the north to be returned to slavery. Hers was the first glimpse of what slave life was really like. It brought to the attention of northerners of the brutality of many plantations and the inhuman condition brought to the slaves. This stands in sharp contrast to modern ideas.

Often in popular culture you hear the phrase “I’m no Uncle Tom” or a reference to someone as “an Uncle Tom” in derisive terms alluding to someone who knuckles under and does the white man’s bidding. But, the character of Uncle Tom in Stowe’s novel was anything but the modern vision. He was a strong figure described by many reviewers as a “Christlike figure” who was actually killed by his owner, Simon LeGree. So, how did we get such a different, opposite view of Uncle Tom? I am speculating here but I suspect that the reason Stowe’s version of Uncle Tom failed is because it followed her novel. Uncle Tom was portrayed as the strong, proud man that she had created. But the versions of the book that came to stage, and later film, that were successful presented a Tom who was a shuffling, subservient old man. My guess is that audiences, even those who opposed slavery, did not want to see a strong black man opposing and standing up to authority. That feeling remained prevalent well into the early 20th century and thus, films followed the same recipe. So, when someone is called an “Uncle Tom” it should signify characterstics of strength of characater, integrity and self-worth. Instead, due to stage and film adaptations, being called an “Uncle Tom” holds an extremely negative connotation.

It’s a shame because the novel held such significance. Stowe was attacked in print and vilified by the pro-slavery crowd and received “mountains of threatening mail.” One package was sent to her containing the severed ear of a slave! But, it’s nothing new. Today films that are supposedly based on history are often fudged, altered and fictionalized. There are other movies that make one think that they are historical when, in fact, they are largely nonsense. Do not depend on popular culture, films, TV or even the internet for your history. Read published works instead. Go to the primary source. The sad story of the evolution of Uncle Tom is a great example of how popular culture can distort or even destroy the truth.

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008

500 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0926 18Z

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT KYLE IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON…WITH THE FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS AT 850 MB AND 700 MB DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1003 MB…AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTH- NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 56 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB…WITH SFMR WINDS OF 45-48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. AFTER A NUDGE TO THE LEFT THIS MORNING…KYLE HAS MADE A NUDGE TO THE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12 HR MOTION AND ADVISORY MOTION IS 345/11…BUT THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS ALMOST DUE NORTH. KYLE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC…AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT…THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS KYLE TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN END OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS…WITH MOST OF GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY. BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE AND THE INITIAL POSITION/MOTION…THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER…IT LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF ANYTHING…THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO. THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AFTER THAT…KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG…BUT DIVERGENT…UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW….WITH THE RESULTING SHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCE TRYING TO STRENGTHEN IT. A NEW COMPLICATION IS A COLD AIR MASS APPROACHING KYLE FROM THE EAST…WHICH IF IT REACHES THE CYCLONE COULD CAUSE WEAKENING OR A FASTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS…THE SHIPS…HWRF…AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR KYLE TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KT IN 36 HR. AFTER THAT TIME…KYLE WILL MOVE OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION…AND THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. KYLE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AFTER LANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA. INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 27.6N 68.7W 50 KT

12HR VT 27/0600Z 29.5N 69.3W 55 KT

24HR VT 27/1800Z 32.6N 69.5W 60 KT

36HR VT 28/0600Z 36.5N 69.0W 65 KT

48HR VT 28/1800Z 40.3N 67.8W 65 KT

72HR VT 29/1800Z 47.5N 64.5W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 30/1800Z 52.0N 62.0W 35 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 01/1800Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Kyle Has No Head; Invest 94 is Onshore September 26, 2008

0926 NAM 850mb 12 hr

Here is a story regarding the area of low pressure that moved into the Carolina coasts. I told you yesterday that the storm was affecting the coast with some pretty good winds. There have been power outages, trees down and that sort of thing. I also stated my opinion that it really wasn’t tropical but that I had guessed that sometimes they seem to give storms that will affect the public adversely a name and call it sub-tropical just to alert the public of a concern. People tend to take more notice of storms with a name than not. But, I’ve been saying for some time that the storm was a cold core, meaning that the temperatures were falling with height like a run of the mill low pressure and not getting warmer like a tropical low. In THIS STORY, the guy from the NWS in Raleigh claims that “this was very close to a tropical system.” I disagree. If you look at the 850 mb map to the left, you can clearly see the difference between a tropical and non-tropical system. Granted this is a 12 hour forecast graphic from the 12Z NAM. If you look at the red lines, they indicate cooling temperatures going into the center of the inland low down to 12 C. Conversely, if you look to the right of that feature at Kyle, then you see rising contours to 18C at the center of Kyle. The onshore storm was not close to being tropical. To me, even on satellite, it didn’t look tropical. I think that the boys at the NHC just couldn’t bring themselves to give it a name given that they had so little to hang their hats on regarding the tropical definition.

Tropical Storm Kyle Visible Satellite 0926 1515Z

Tropical Storm Kyle forecast track 0926 11AM

Now, Tropical Storm Kyle, is a different story. It has all of the tropical

Tropical Storm Kyle spaghetti Model 0926 12Z

characteristics but its got its own trouble. Winds aloft are knocking off its hat. The upper winds from the west or southwest from around the inland low is not allowing for a concentric storm. The storms and convection are to the right of the center. But, as Kyle moves north, it will have an opportunity to get its head straight and gain strength. It will squeeze through the low to the west and a building ridge in the Atlantic and get shot like a watermelon seed to the north. I suspect initially that it is being drawn a little west as it wants to go toward the low but the flow is more north. As was the key with Hurricane Ike, the high will determine if it hits the Northeast US or not. If the ridge builds sufficiently, then it gets shoved farther west. If it weakens a bit as is forecast, then the storm goes into Nova Scotia. A couple of things work against the New England scenario is that the westerlies at that latitude is pretty significant as well as corioliis parameters. Nevertheless, it is close enough that northeast interests should keep tabs on Kyle

Here is the Tropical Storm Kyle National Hurricane Center Discussion:

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008

1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0926 12Z

KYLE IS SHOWING A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING…WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT…WHILE RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATES BELIEVABLE WINDS OF 45 KT. BASED ON THIS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT WOBBLY 340/11…SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OTHER THAN THAT…THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. KYLE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC…AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT…KYLE MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN END OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAST THE NORTHERN END OF THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN AND HOW SOON KYLE MAY ACQUIRE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION…AS SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL. HOWEVER…THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE…WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO…BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AFTER THAT…KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG…BUT DIVERGENT…UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW….WITH THE RESULTING SHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCE TRYING TO STRENGTHEN IT. WHICH OF THESE INFLUENCES WILL BE THE STRONGEST IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KYLE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE FIRST 48 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE…BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HR. AFTER 48 HR…KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM INTO VERY COLD WATER. WHILE THIS AND THE EXPECTED ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE KYLE TO WEAKEN…IT MAY STILL BE OF HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER REACHES NEW ENGLAND OR THE MARITIMES. AFTER LANDFALL…KYLE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL…EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 26.4N 68.8W 50 KT

12HR VT 27/0000Z 28.6N 69.4W 55 KT

24HR VT 27/1200Z 31.7N 69.9W 60 KT

36HR VT 28/0000Z 35.5N 69.8W 65 KT

48HR VT 28/1200Z 39.5N 68.7W 70 KT

72HR VT 29/1200Z 46.5N 66.0W 50 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 30/1200Z 52.0N 62.0W 40 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 01/1200Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Kyle; Daniel Boone Dead From Indigestion Without a Coonskin Hat September 26, 2008

for a whole mess of hurricane ike damage photos, videos and stories, CLICK HERE and scroll down through the blog

Invest 94 IR Satellite 0926 0245Z

If you look to the left you will see what has been dubbed Invest 94. I kept telling you that the models were advertising that the air aloft was a bit chilly, which indicated that it was a cold core low. But, that was computers talking. I had thought that perhaps the boys at the National Hurricane Center would call it a subtropical storm and give it a name. It was kicking up pretty good winds and sometimes I wonder if when a storm is not really tropical but is affecting a lot of people as it moves ashore, then they go ahead and give it a name just to alert the public to its whereabouts. I’m sure that comment will not be greeted warmly by the boys at the NHC. I admit, its a guess and I may be wrong. Anyway, you can see from the satellite that it is a more classic comma shape. It will pass to the east of Louisville and the rain threat is minimal. If you get a light shower Friday evening, it won’t do much good. I think the big news is that a strong front appears to be on its way for early to mid week and will not only bring a chance for rain but also decidedly Fall-like air. The weekend looks good with clouds decreasing Saturday. Sunday looks good.

Tropical Storm Kyle IR Satellite 0926 0245Z

Tropical Storm Kyle: The news here is that the storm finally got away from the

Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Track 0925 11PM

Dominican Republic and was designated as a tropical storm shortly thereafter. Now, it dawdled so much that the upper winds that had been favorable are not so good right now. But, as Invest 94 moves inland and Kyle moves northward, it will open up an opportunity for the winds to relax a bit. Now, Kyle will be zipping right along and the forecast track has it moving into the Canadian Maritimes in a few days. The inland low will tag along behind and bring rain to the northeast. There is a big fat ridge in the North Atlantic that won’t allow it to turn right as it would like to do due to the coriolis force. It would be tough for the storm to veer more to the left and affect the US coast. It would be a stretch for the ridge to be that strong to overcome the coriolis parameters but its not totally out of the question. The official forecast and a few of the spaghetti models do make Kyle a hurricane. Look to the bottom of the post for a look at the Tropical Storm Kyle National Hurricane Center Discussion.

Ole Dan'l Didn't Have a Coonskin Cap

On This Date In History: Daniel Boone died in 1820. He didn’t get attacked by Indians, he didn’t get eaten by a bear and he didn’t die in Kentucky. He simply died quietly at the age of 86. The cause? He reportedly died of eating too many sweet potatoes and died of indigestion. Today we have the credit

Fess Parker's Fraudulent Portrayal of Boone

crisis affecting real estate owners. In Boone’s day, you had to have a proper claim and it seems ole Dan’l didn’t have the proper papers for his land holdings in Kentucky. Because he failed to register his land properly, he lost his land in Kentucky and I suppose that included Boonesboro. Dan may have been gone but they kept the name. Boone in 1799 went west and settled in Missouri at the tender age of 65. He spent his final years hunting and trapping. Later, Fess Parker portrayed Boone in a TV series in the late 60’s. In the series, Parker wore a coonskin cap and there was even a reference to that in the theme song. Trouble was that Boone never wore a coonskin cap. He preferred a broad brimmed beaver hat. Guess Parker had the coonskin cap left over from his previous TV series in which he portrayed Davy Crockett. Kept the Boone series budget costs low. Honestly, I couldn’t tell the difference between Parker’s Crockett and Parker’s Boone as he was one of those guys who acted the same way in all of his roles. But, I must say I think Parker looks more like a Boone than Boone did. There is a statue of Boone, not Parker, near Cherokee Park.

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008

1100 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model 0926 00Z

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WHICH WAS INVESTIGATING KYLE EARLIER THIS EVENING MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 994 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW SFMR RETRIEVALS NEAR 55 KT…BUT THE FLIGHT METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD ESTIMATED THAT THESE MEASUREMENTS WERE LIKELY ABOUT 10 KT TOO HIGH. IN ADDITION…A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION USING THE SHEAR PATTERN WOULD YIELD A DATA-T NUMBER OF 3.0. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIX INDICATES THAT KYLE HAS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING AT 010/11. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS ADVECTED

Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0926 00Z

NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH JUST EAST OF BERMUDA AND THE LARGE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MODEL AGREEMENT IS EXCEPTIONAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. KYLE IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO…DURING WHICH ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH AFTER THAT AND KYLE WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER WARM WATERS AT A FAIRLY SPEEDY CLIP. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN BY THE LGEM…HWRF…FSU SUPERENSEMBLE…AND CONTINUITY. HOWEVER…THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS MAKE KYLE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. KYLE WILL THEN CROSS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AFTER 48 HOURS AND SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BEGIN ONCE KYLE MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 72 HOURS WITH THE PROCESS COMPLETED BY 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5…THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK. IN ADDITION…PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 24.8N 68.0W 45 KT

12HR VT 26/1200Z 26.5N 68.1W 50 KT

24HR VT 27/0000Z 29.2N 68.7W 60 KT

36HR VT 27/1200Z 32.4N 68.9W 65 KT

48HR VT 28/0000Z 36.3N 68.3W 70 KT

72HR VT 29/0000Z 44.5N 65.5W 60 KT…INLAND…NOVA SCOTIA

96HR VT 30/0000Z 50.0N 60.0W 50 KT…EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 01/0000Z…ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

$$FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Kyle; Hurricane Ike Damage Photos Before and After From Cameron, LA to Freeport Texas September 25, 2008

Holly Beach Before and After Ike

for a whole mess of hurricane ike damage photos, videos and stories, CLICK HERE and scroll down through the blog

The USGS has issued a number of remarkable photos from west of Galveston near Freeport Texas to Cameron Louisiana. They are generally photos from a few days before Hurricane Ike to a day or so after Hurricane Ike. However, the Louisiana photos also give some perspective from prior to Hurricane Rita and after Rita then followed by the Ike sequence. It’s very interesting how Rita took away and then over a few years how the area recovered regarding the land and beach area. Then look at how Hurricane Ike almost totally wiped out what was left. Keep in mind that where the Louisiana photos were taken were about 100 miles east of Galveston. Pretty remarkable. Here are the before/after sequences from the USGS

Surfside to San Luis Pass, Tx-USGS

Galveston, Tx -USGS

Bolivar Peninsula, Tx-USGS

High Island to Sabine Pass, TX-USGS

Cameron Parish, LA-USGS

Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Track 5pm 0925

Tropical Storm Kyle: Tropical storm Kyle formed…well…the system that has been

Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model 0925 18Z

lolligagging over the Dominican that looked pretty good so many times and then faded finally got away from the islands and they just skipped the tropical depression stage and went straight to the Tropical Storm stage. That didn’t surprise me because it had a pretty good wind field but the problem was it didn’t have a sufficient closed circulation. So, when it got away from land it closed up a bit. The forecast calls for it to get up to minimal hurricane and move up toward Nova Scotia. It should move pretty quickly and is close enough to New England to keep an eye peeled. It won’t be this intense but the track will be fairly close to the same track as the Great New England Hurricane of 1938.

Tropical Storm Kyle Visible Satellite 0925 2015Z

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008

500 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PLAGUED PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER-DEFINED LOW CLOUD CIRCULATION THAN

Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0925 18Z

EARLIER TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED…THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED 1000 FT WINDS AS HIGH AS 51 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS BEING CLASSIFIED AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR THIS FIRST ADVISORY. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE STRENGTHENING OF KYLE BUT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…MORE OR LESS AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH OR 010/7. HOWEVER THE EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS PROBABLY DUE TO SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER TOWARD THE DEEP CONVECTION. A MAINLY NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS…BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS REFLECTED IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 23.5N 68.3W 40 KT

12HR VT 26/0600Z 25.2N 68.3W 45 KT

24HR VT 26/1800Z 27.7N 68.7W 55 KT

36HR VT 27/0600Z 31.0N 69.0W 60 KT

48HR VT 27/1800Z 34.5N 69.0W 65 KT

72HR VT 28/1800Z 43.0N 67.0W 65 KT

96HR VT 29/1800Z 50.0N 60.0W 55 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 30/1800Z 53.0N 53.0W 55 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$ FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

Home Sweet Home? Stay Off The Phone and Stand By Your Man! September 25, 2008

No Place Like Home?

Here is a whole mess of photos of people returning to Galveston Texas following about 10 days of exile after Hurricane Ike. (CLICK HERE) For a large number of Hurricane Ike Damage Photos and video from Galveston, Bolivar Peninsula, Houston and Louisville, CLICK HERE

Not Feeling Well After Long Sculling Expedition

Snow White and I did a very long row Wednesday evening. My hands ache, ankles, wrists and backside hurt. While the weather was great, suddenly everyone else found out the river was it was great too after two days of secrecy. Sailboats were everywhere and there were lots of pleasure boats and runabouts. Then there were two barges. Pretty rough out there but we persevered for several miles. One thing about sculling on the river is that once you’re up river, you can’t just stop because your hands hurt or you are tired. You have no choice but to keep going until you get back.

Invest 94 Spaghetti Model 0925 00Z

Thursday will be another good day though clouds will increase. The area of low

Invest 94 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0925 00Z

pressure that I’ve been talking about off the SE Coast got a bit deeper on Wednesday and is trying to take on tropical characteristics. This has gotten the attention of the National Hurricane Center as winds offshore have been up into Tropical Storm force with gusts along the coast of some 35-45 mph. From the models, it appears that the 850 temps will remain rather chilly so it will probably be something of a cold core low with some other

Invest 93 Spaghetti Model 0925 00Z

tropical features. I wouldn’t be surprised if they label it a sub-tropical storm and issue advisories accordingly. It is now called Invest 94.

Invest 93 Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0925 00Z

This development really doesn’t affect our forecast much. This guy in whatever form it is will come inland and stay to our Southeast and East. We will get an increase in clouds on Friday with perhaps a light largely insignificant shower or two. It looks to us as if the clouds will stick around for much of Saturday. So, we probably won’t get out of the 70’s for Friday and Saturday. Sunday will be improved with warmer conditions but not as hot as we’ve seen. Then there is some indication that a good cold front comes down for the early to middle part of next week, though we are mulling some of the data which tries to make it pretty cool but we have to consider that we are in a transition in seasons and the models sometimes act goofy. So, we’ll see how it shakes out. Invest 93 is very much up in the air as to whether it develops or not.

Stay Off The Phone...You can Live Without It

Foolishness

Text Message Fiasco: One thing that I didn’t mention but have before is my disdain for the jetskis. Either the guys riding them don’t pay attention, don’t care or deliberately make a nuisance of themselves. Well, another thing that I don’t care for is cell phones. I told Snow White that I had gone well over 40 years without a cell phone and I didn’t need one but if she could find one for $10 a month I’d get one. She found one for $9.95. So now I have a cell phone and i don’t like it when people call because it uses up my minutes. And most of the time it’s to tell me something that could have waited. Most of the time they are driving. I see more people tootling around in their cars talking on the phone and paying attention to the road as much as jetskiers pay attention to the river. Now, we have the new craze..text messaging. This is even more annoying. I’ve seen people having little secret conversations at their work with other people in the building. They sit there and giggle like school kids in the back of the classroom. When you text message, your concentration is taken away from whatever it is you supposed to be doing…like paying attention. Just the other day, a teenager was killed when he was struck by a car. Witnesses say the kid walked right in front of a vehicle….never looking up to see where he was going…because he was concentrating on his text message.

Here’s the Story of the kid killed while text messaging in Florida.

Caused By Text Messaging Engineer?

I’m not sure why a teenager needs a cell phone. It seems like it creates more problems than it solves. But, I have to admit I can see where a kid would like to text message. But I fail to see how an adult would like to text message. I don’t get the face book stuff for adults either…especially those over 25. But, in another recent tragedy, not only was an apparent text messenger killed but more than two dozen also lost their lives. The investigation is continuing but the apparent operating hypothesis of why a Los Angeles area commuter train blew through red lights and then head on into a freight train was because the engineer was text

messaging with a couple of teenagers.

Here is the story of the NTSB investigation into the text messaging activity of an on-duty engineer.

Caused By Cell Phone Using Truck Driver?

If all of that is not enough, here is the story of a truck driver who was on his cell phone earlier this week in Florida. He was looking at his phone then looked up to see a school bus. He hit it without stopping. Bus and truck caught fire, killing a 13 year old girl.

While I’m in a grumpy mood….how about this unbelievable story…

There’s this national televangelist in Georgia. Her husband’s name is Bishop

Marry Tom on a Game Show?

Thomas Weeks III. He recently got divorced. His wife filed for divorce because the preacher was accused of choking his then wife, Juanita Bynum. He was also accused of pushing her and stomping on her in a parking lot and of making terroristic threats. He pleaded guilty to the aggravated assault charge and completed his sentence of community service. Okay…sad story….unusual in that you wouldn’t expect that from a pastor but then again, we’ve heard a lot of stuff about ministers on TV over the years. Here is the kicker….Now ladies…you too can be the bride of Bishop Weeks! I mean, after the above advertisement, why not? Perhaps you can get your boxing license at the same time! All you have to do is appear on the new reality show called “Who Will be the Next Mrs Weeks?!” This search by Weeks will be for wife number 3. Perhaps contestants should consult with wives number 1 and two before going on the air. I mean, from what we know, if this show is truly reality then perhaps it should have a rating like they do in movies.

Joe, Remember Herbie?

Senator Joe Biden Needs to Read This Date in History! You probably heard this but Senator Biden explained to Katie Couric (See Video Clip) how that after the stock market crash in 1929, Franklin Roosevelt went on TV and leveled with the American people. Uh…Senator Biden…Television was not introduced to the public until 1939 and really didn’t find its way into homes until well after the second world war. Oh..and one other thing. Franklin Roosevelt was not president until 1933. Herbert Hoover was president in 1929. What Biden didn’t say was that FDR whacked on Hoover even after he had won the election. Ask yourself this. If Gov. Palin or Sen. McCain had said this, would the press pretty much ignore it or call it a gaffe? Or would they suggest that Palin didn’t know anything or McCain was too old? Be honest.

Today’s This Date in History: If you don’t know the story of Benedict Arnold, he was a very good General for the colonists. In fact, he was one of General Washington’s favorites. He got involved in an act of treason involving an attempt to turn over West Point to the British. You can read all about Benedict Arnold by reading THIS BIOGRAPHY. What you won’t read about are the details regarding his wife.

Showed General Washington the Goods

Arnold married a then 18 year old Peggy Shippen in 1779. Her family is suspected of being British sympathizers. She had been a big part of the social scene in Philadelphia and had a boyfriend named John Andre who was also a British officer. Just so happens that the go-between for Arnold and the British was none other than Andre, who was captured with the whole plot stuffed in his sock. Peggy also corresponded with her old flame, assisting in the negotiations. Arnold escaped but Andre was hanged 8 days later. When the plot was revealed to General Washington, he just happened to be expecting to visit the Arnolds. He found the general gone and Peggy put on a show. She went off like a raving lunatic using wild gestures. One historian also reports that during her performance, her clothes separated in such a way as to “reveal charms that should have been hidden.” Naturally, Washington fell for the scam and declared the woman innocent. Alexander Hamilton knew Shippen and supported Washington’s assessment saying that Shippen had sweetness and beauty with “all the loveliness of innocence.”

In the end, the Arnolds lived in England on a pension but Benedict was largely shunned since most Brits weren’t too keen on anyone who was a traitor, even if their side was the beneficiary. Somehow I suspect that his wife found a way to return to the social scene.