for hurricane ike damage photos and video, CLICK HERE and scroll down. Many of the slideshows update daily.
Last Friday, Snow White and I went on an excursion to Springfield, KY just because our power was still out (we got it back Sat. Night@8:49 pm…nearly a week after we lost it) and we both had the idea at the same time. So, we blew off our sculling expedition for the day and tootled down the road listening to my Sirius radio. As I heard updates on the Ryder Cup, it occurred to me that the US team would win simply because everyone said that they would lose and because of guys like Boo Weekley, JB Holmes, Anthony Kim and Kenny Perry as well as the other names not at the tip of the tongue of most casual golf fans. I had thought that perhaps if they lost, it would be because one of the stars failed miserably. Well, I’ll take credit for my fearless forecast and you can get a little local perspective by linking to THIS WEBSITE FOR A LOUISVILLE VIEW OF THE RYDER CUP WEEKEND. Its not something that you will find on most national websites.
If you didn’t get any rain this weekend, and you probably didn’t, then you are out of luck for much of the week ahead. At the end of the week, there is some indication that an area of low pressure will move into the SE from the Atlantic. At this time, it does not appear to be tropical in nature but its not totally unreasonable to think that could change. More significantly, many models show it moving onshore and continuing inland. At this time, it does not appear that it would get close enough to us to bring rain though some of the data try to bring it close enough that perhaps we can hold out some hope…not enough to put in the forecast…but something to consider as the week progresses. There is another system, currently called Invest 93.
Invest 93: There was some indication through the weekend that the tropical
disturbance south of Puerto Rico could develop into a depression. Well, when the boys with the Hurricane Hunters flew out for a looksee, it was over Puerto Rico. Land, aerial and satellite observations suggest that winds may indeed be around depression level but that the circulation is not defined enough to warrant it being classified as a depression. However, the spaghetti models all indicate a track with a northerly component that would take the storm back over the water. The bad news is that 10 of the models make it a hurricane. The good news is that most do not take it to the East Coast…though if the current tracks hold…and they’ll probably change…then New England may be a concern.
One must consider that On This Date in History, Sept 22, 1938 New England and specifically Long Island were reeling from the Great New England Hurricane aka The Long Island Express which was a hurricane that came off of Africa wandered through the Bahamas and then north…the forecasters of the day thought it would turn out to sea. Most of the time at that far north latitude the coriolis force turns storms to the right. But…there was a big fat high in the Atlantic that would not allow such a turn. It did aid in the acceleration so the result was that Long Island got nailed by a Category 3 hurricane moving at 70 mph. 600 people in New England died. (here is more on the Long Island Express in 1938) Now, I am in no way suggesting that this guy will be a repeat or even that it will indeed even be a hurricane. What I am suggesting is that it has happened before and it had nothing to do with Global Warming. Just like it is tenuous at best for anyone, regardless of their expert credentials, to claim that Katrina had anything to do with Global Warming. Funny how when people try to make that claim they neglect to mention Hurricane Camille in 1969.
Speaking of things that have happened before…On This Date in 1907…The United States was in the midst of an economic crisis. At that time, there was no central bank or Federal Reserve. There had been some doofus who tried to corner the copper market and when that failed, all of the banks who made loans to back the scheme were in trouble. They started calling other loans. People lost confidence in the banks as several failed. A bailout was needed. At the time, President Theodore Roosevelt was claiming that everything was in great shape and was threatening a federal takeover of all trusts. Who comes to the rescue but J. Pierpont Morgan. He got together with his banking brethren and convinced them that they needed to work together to salvage the system in order to save all of their hides and the future of the nation. He also convinced the Secretary of the Treasury to pony up $25 million to the effort. The recession did not turn into a depression and the event led directly to the eventual establishment of the Federal Reserve. While the numbers are not as large…not the $700 billion to $1.2 Trillion being tossed around this time, the other numbers are not as large either. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 39%. We recently lost and gained less than one percent and politicians are running around trying to make comparisons to the Great Depression. In order to equal the fall of the 1907 panic, then a Dow of 11,400 would have to fall to 7000. So, while this is serious and potentially catastrophic and far reaching, the solution is not totally unprecedented. It’s just that before it was JP Morgan engineering a bailout with some government help and this time its the Federal Reserve and Uncle Sam engineering a bailout with some other private help. When you hear also of rumors that today’s problem was a plot by those who stand to profit, keep in mind that in 1907 it was rumored that the banks had caused the whole panic just to line their pockets.
Sometimes, news people say they need to give commentary to “give perspective” or a particular news event. Dan Rather used to defend journalists providing analysis instead of just reporting for that specific reason. Yet, it helps if those giving “analysis and perspective” had some perspective in the first place.
Here are some more articles relating to JP Morgan and the panic of 1907.