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If you look to the left you will see what has been dubbed Invest 94. I kept telling you that the models were advertising that the air aloft was a bit chilly, which indicated that it was a cold core low. But, that was computers talking. I had thought that perhaps the boys at the National Hurricane Center would call it a subtropical storm and give it a name. It was kicking up pretty good winds and sometimes I wonder if when a storm is not really tropical but is affecting a lot of people as it moves ashore, then they go ahead and give it a name just to alert the public to its whereabouts. I’m sure that comment will not be greeted warmly by the boys at the NHC. I admit, its a guess and I may be wrong. Anyway, you can see from the satellite that it is a more classic comma shape. It will pass to the east of Louisville and the rain threat is minimal. If you get a light shower Friday evening, it won’t do much good. I think the big news is that a strong front appears to be on its way for early to mid week and will not only bring a chance for rain but also decidedly Fall-like air. The weekend looks good with clouds decreasing Saturday. Sunday looks good.
Tropical Storm Kyle: The news here is that the storm finally got away from the
Dominican Republic and was designated as a tropical storm shortly thereafter. Now, it dawdled so much that the upper winds that had been favorable are not so good right now. But, as Invest 94 moves inland and Kyle moves northward, it will open up an opportunity for the winds to relax a bit. Now, Kyle will be zipping right along and the forecast track has it moving into the Canadian Maritimes in a few days. The inland low will tag along behind and bring rain to the northeast. There is a big fat ridge in the North Atlantic that won’t allow it to turn right as it would like to do due to the coriolis force. It would be tough for the storm to veer more to the left and affect the US coast. It would be a stretch for the ridge to be that strong to overcome the coriolis parameters but its not totally out of the question. The official forecast and a few of the spaghetti models do make Kyle a hurricane. Look to the bottom of the post for a look at the Tropical Storm Kyle National Hurricane Center Discussion.
On This Date In History: Daniel Boone died in 1820. He didn’t get attacked by Indians, he didn’t get eaten by a bear and he didn’t die in Kentucky. He simply died quietly at the age of 86. The cause? He reportedly died of eating too many sweet potatoes and died of indigestion. Today we have the credit
crisis affecting real estate owners. In Boone’s day, you had to have a proper claim and it seems ole Dan’l didn’t have the proper papers for his land holdings in Kentucky. Because he failed to register his land properly, he lost his land in Kentucky and I suppose that included Boonesboro. Dan may have been gone but they kept the name. Boone in 1799 went west and settled in Missouri at the tender age of 65. He spent his final years hunting and trapping. Later, Fess Parker portrayed Boone in a TV series in the late 60’s. In the series, Parker wore a coonskin cap and there was even a reference to that in the theme song. Trouble was that Boone never wore a coonskin cap. He preferred a broad brimmed beaver hat. Guess Parker had the coonskin cap left over from his previous TV series in which he portrayed Davy Crockett. Kept the Boone series budget costs low. Honestly, I couldn’t tell the difference between Parker’s Crockett and Parker’s Boone as he was one of those guys who acted the same way in all of his roles. But, I must say I think Parker looks more like a Boone than Boone did. There is a statue of Boone, not Parker, near Cherokee Park.
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WHICH WAS INVESTIGATING KYLE EARLIER THIS EVENING MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 994 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW SFMR RETRIEVALS NEAR 55 KT…BUT THE FLIGHT METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD ESTIMATED THAT THESE MEASUREMENTS WERE LIKELY ABOUT 10 KT TOO HIGH. IN ADDITION…A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION USING THE SHEAR PATTERN WOULD YIELD A DATA-T NUMBER OF 3.0. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIX INDICATES THAT KYLE HAS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING AT 010/11. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS ADVECTED
NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH JUST EAST OF BERMUDA AND THE LARGE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MODEL AGREEMENT IS EXCEPTIONAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. KYLE IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO…DURING WHICH ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH AFTER THAT AND KYLE WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER WARM WATERS AT A FAIRLY SPEEDY CLIP. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN BY THE LGEM…HWRF…FSU SUPERENSEMBLE…AND CONTINUITY. HOWEVER…THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS MAKE KYLE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. KYLE WILL THEN CROSS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AFTER 48 HOURS AND SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BEGIN ONCE KYLE MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 72 HOURS WITH THE PROCESS COMPLETED BY 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5…THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK. IN ADDITION…PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 24.8N 68.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 26.5N 68.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 29.2N 68.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 32.4N 68.9W 65 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 36.3N 68.3W 70 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 44.5N 65.5W 60 KT…INLAND…NOVA SCOTIA
96HR VT 30/0000Z 50.0N 60.0W 50 KT…EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 01/0000Z…ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE