Archive for the ‘1’ Category

Could Donald Trump Lose His Name?
March 1, 2010

Trump May Have to Fire His Name!

Surely Dad Won't Have To Kiss Ivanka Goodbye with his Name?

What’s In a Name?  Donald Trump and his casino arm, Trump Entertainment, filed for bankruptcy for a third time in February 2009.  This third bankruptcy filing is not too big of an indictment on Trump given that the economy has hurt the gaming industry nationwide.  Trump tried to flip a deal in which he would buy out the bondholders but those who owned the bonds didn’t go for it but it was announced in November 2009 that Trump and his daughter Ivanka would retain a stake in the company and take it out of bankruptcy in a new deal.  But there was a fly in the ointment.  That fly was none other than Carl Icahn who is a very prominent investor.  Seems Ichan bought a bunch of the bonds and Icahn announced a rival plan to take over the Trump casinos.

Carl Icahn Has A great Name for Investing...but a Casino?

So, now the two titans face off in bankruptcy court and the most interesting charges flying have to do with the “Trump” name.  Icahn want’s to buy the casinos and keep the name without Donald or Ivanka.  Some say that the Trump image has been tarnished by a number of financial battles in which The Apprentice star finds himself.  In fact, Icahn lawyers in court filings said that, “The Trump name may no longer be ‘synonymous with business acumen, high quality and style, a luxury lifestyle and enormous success’ as Mr. Trump asserts.”   Say what you want about Donald’s hair but there is no way that Mr. Trump would allow an attack on the family name to go unanswered.  He implied under crossexamination that Mr. Icahn’s name has been associated with some less-than-successful deals of his own saying,  “Well, Mr. Icahn has led companies into many, many bankruptcies.”

"Con" Works with Extermination Products

So the fight goes on.  Trump is arguing that Icahn does not have the right to take his name if he takes the casinos.  Icahn says that he does.  But, there’s the kicker and perhaps the ultimate insult.  A Wall Street Journal article says that the main reason Mr. Icahn wants to retain the Trump name is that it would cost $15 to $20 million to change the signs.  He says that, otherwise, the name has nothing to do with the future success of the properties.  Ouch!   In court, Trump says that Icahn should not be able to to take over the casinos at all, painting an unflattering picture of a quick buck artist, perhaps not unlike Gordon Gekko.  Trump doesn’t say that Icahn won’t spend money to rebuild the casinos and the brand name, the New York Post reported that he says Icahn is a “cheapskate” who wouldn’t spend three dollars.  Mr. Trump says, “If Carl spends $3, I’d be shocked.” 

"Con" Worked for a Movie But Not Sure if it Fits Casino

Now, who knows how this whole thing will come out in the wash.  But, the fact that anyone is saying that the only reason he wants to keep the Trump name on the buildings is becuase he doesn’t want to spend the money to change the name is amazing.  It may support Trump’s assertion about Icahn or it may be Mr. Icahn’s way of sticking it to a rival.  Either way, it seems rather odd for someone to be able to lose his name if he loses his business. I suppose it has happened before but still…a Trump named casino without a Trump?  I guess it’s better than an alternative like “Icahn Casino” which is pronounced Eye Con.  Somehow I think that there may be a bit of a difficulty in the marketing department with attracting customers to I Con Casino.  It workd for ConAir which was a ficticious movie starring Nicolas Cage and it works with bug killer..D-Con…but I’m just not certain about a Casino.  Maybe the Trump name is worth more than Icahn is letting on.

By Wed AM, all critical thickness or freezing lines are well south

GFS claims a little moisture in our area with East Coast Storm Early Wed AM

Weather Bottom Line: We did get to 41 but largely, the day was just like Sunday which was still cold and not feeling like much of a warm up.  A system is running along the Gulf Coast and will take a turn across Georgia and then off the North Carolina Coast and up the eastern seaboard.  Look for more snow stories from the Northeast this week but not as dramatic as the last couple of storms.  The bulk of this guy should stay far enough offshore as to not affect more than coastal regions with snow, but it still may be significant in some areas.  As the low passes us to the South, the long wave pattern will again adjust with the base of the trof to our South.  A couple of flurries will be possible Tuesday night or early Wednesday but the moisture will more or less be cut off by the Appalacians so it doesn’t look like a big deal.  I still think that we don’t get out of the 30’s on Tuesday or Wednesday and maybe even Thursday.  We get some sun on Friday and  move to the low 40’s before getting into the average range for Saturday…which is about 51. So don’t break out the tanning butter.  But, if we can’t have snow, I say go to 70.  This Houston-type of winter weather in the 40’s and clouds stinks.  If its gonna be cold, then lets have some exciting snow. If not, then let spring hurry up and get here and let me plant my sunflowers.  A little rain Sunday or Monday won’t be out of the question as the long wave pattern may be breaking after about 2 months of it being stuck.

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Potential Typhoon Mirinae Making Early Threat to Philippines
October 26, 2009

Western Pacific IR Satellite Loop (Tropical Storm 23W, developing Typhoon Mirinae)

Western Pacific IR Satellite Loop (Tropical Storm 23W, developing Typhoon Mirinae)

For a more recent update on Typhoon Mirinae CLICK HERE

Tropical Storm 23W 1130Z 10.26.09 (Typhoon Mirinae)

Tropical Storm 23W 1130Z 10.26.09 (Typhoon Mirinae)

While the Philippines escaped the wrath of Typhoon Lupit, Tropical Storm 23W is developing well east of the Philippines and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast not only develops it into Typhoon Mirinae, but also makes the storm intensity 100 kts as it moves into the Philippines almost due east of Manila at 12Z on October 31.  The ridge that had broken down enough to allow Lupit to scamper to the northeast, away from the Philippines has filled back in and is growing stronger.  As we saw with Typhoon Lupit, with several days before projected landfall, there can be many changes to the environment and also the steering currents.  So, this is not to be taken as Gospel.  However, the reasoning is sound and the storm is already developing and moving faster than intially anticipated.  The Philippines will certainly be on guard as any tropical cyclone activity in the region that remotely threatens the country needs to be taken seriously given the region will be slow to recover from the effects of Typhoon Parma and Tropical Storm Ketsana. Developing Tropical Storm 23W will be affecting Andersen Air Force Base,  south of Saipan, by 00Z October 27.


Tropical Storm 23W Forecast Track

Tropical Storm 23W Forecast Track (typhoon mirinae)

WDPN32 PGTW 261500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W CONSOLIDATED FURTHER AS IT TRACKED AT A FASTER THAN NORMAL RATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 260918Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T2.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 260000Z PGUM UPPER-AIR SOUNDING REPORTING EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 400 MB SUPPORTS CURRENT AND PROJECTED STORM MOTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN. B. TS 23W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS DESCRIBED IN PARA 2.A. THE STORM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72, AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, UP TO 100 KNOTS, AS IT TRACKS OVER THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS LEFT OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS AND TRACKS THE STORM BETWEEN GUAM AND SAIPAN. WBAR REMAINS RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE AND EGRR STARTS TO THE LEFT UP TO TAU 72 BEFORE IT VEERS TOWARDS THE MAIN PACK.// NNNN

Health Care Bill: Congress won’t pledge to read it, won’t allow people to read or hear about it
September 26, 2009

computer_smash

Don't Get Mad Because You Can't Read the Healthcare Bill Yourself

Some people may want to know about the pending health care legislation.  Well, don’t expect your healthcare provider to tell you what it thinks.  According to the Democrat House Majority Leader,  don’t expect your elected official to read the bill before they vote on it.  And after a recent Senate Finance Committee vote, don’t expect to be able to read the bill yourself before its voted on.

People in Humana Building Not Allowed to Opine to Customers

People in Humana Building Not Allowed to Opine to Customers

Recently, Humana sent out a letter to many of its elderly customers that included the following statement: “While these programs need to be made more efficient, if the proposed funding cut levels become law, millions of seniors and disabled individuals could lose many of the important benefits and services that make Medicare Advantage health plans so valuable.”   Needless to say, the US Department of Housing and Human Services wasn’t happy and HHS sent out a letter to Humana and other insurance carriers demanding that they stop sending such letters, claiming that it was misleading.  The letter threatened legal action.  So, the insurance company says that the bill in question would cut services to Senior Citizens and that charge has been made publically by many people.  HHS and others disagree.  But, the Republicans view the letter as a “gag order” and object on the grounds that it is violating the constitutional right to free speech. The GOP is threatening to block any appointments to HHS until the “gag order” is lifted

Hoyer Laughed At Suggestion Lawmakers Be Required to Read Bills Before Voting

Hoyer Laughed At Suggestion Lawmakers Be Required to Read Bills Before Voting

President Obama had pledged a transparent government and said while campaigning that his administration would post any bill before Congress on the internet for at least 5 days so that the American people could read it.   It’s called the “sunlight pledge” and many critics say that the pledge was broken just weeks after the administration took office.   After the bailout vote in 2008 when it was learned that members of Congress did not have time to read the legislation, many Americans thought that lawmakers should at least read a bill before they vote for or against it.  Recently, a reported asked House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer if Congress would make a pledge to read the health care reform bill before they signed it.  Hoyer laughed at the idea of members of Congress pledging to read a bill before it is voted upon.   He said that,  “If every member pledged to not vote for it if they hadn’t read it in its entirety, I think we would have very few votes,”  Ask yourself what that says about our elected officials. 

Snowe: What's the Rush?

Snowe: What's the Rush?

The Republicans have been offering several amendments to the bill.   The Democrats on the Senate Finance Committee have voted against the GOP amendments might saying that they would delay a vote on the proposal which is not scheduled to even take effect until 2012.  One of Maine’s Republican Senators is Olympia Snowe and she is one who often breaks party ranks in her voting record.  However, she questioned why there was such a rush to vote on the bill saying, “If it takes two more weeks, it takes two more weeks.  We’re talking about trillions of dollars in the final analysis. What is the rush?” 

 One of the amendments that was defeated would have required that the bill be posted on the internet 72 hours prior to a vote.  I suppose that since Hoyer says that most in Congress won’t read the bill before they vote that they don’t want any Americans reading the bill before its voted on either.    However, a bi-partisan effort is going on in the House that would require all legislation to be posted on the internet 3 days prior to a vote.

Can’t hear about it, can’t read it and no one else will read it, but it will get voted on.  Just exactly what it is they are voting on seems to be destined to remain a mystery to everyone.

day1otlk_1300

Weather Bottom Line:  When you have low clouds and fog, its a very stable atmosphere.  On paper, the data claims that there will be some sunshine this afternoon.  That would help to stir things up a bit.  Now, the GFS and the NAM both do not advertise any rain until the evening and overnight period and even then, its not much.  But, the SPC has observed a shortwave rotating around the flow ahead of a frontal system and so they have put a small area for a slight risk of severe weather from Louisville to the bootheel of Missouri.  So, I’d say that there will be more clouds more often than sunshine and the rain chances really don’t go up until the evening and carry until early Sunday morning.  We should see plenty of sunshine with pleasant temperatures and relatively low humidity on Sunday.  A second push of cooler, drier air comes through early Monday morning.  Both the NAM and the GFS advertise another round of showers.  Then it would appear that most forecast outlets are coming around to what I’ve been saying all along with highs for the first part of the week probably not making  it to the low 70’s and the overnight lows finding the 40’s to be a very popular number.  Upper 30’s for the northern part of the viewing area will not be out of the question by Tuesday morning.  Fall is here.

California Wildfires Creative and Lame Reporting; Hurricane Jimena Won’t Help Much
September 2, 2009

California Wildfires
CaliforniaWildFires

For a more recent update on the California Wildfires and Hurricane Jimena, CLICK HERE   

Whenever there is a disaster, reporters tend to go back to the old treasure chest of cliches.  In the event of a tornado, one can always expect tired phrases such as “cars were tossed liked toys” or perhaps “homes reduced to kindling” and naturally, when it comes to people they are always left to “pick up the pieces of their lives.”  The UK Telegraph has gotten some inspiration and provides a time-lapse photography photojournalism spread of the fires.  And there are California Wildfire Photo Galleries from many sources.  But, for the most part, the wildfires in California have resulted in journalists revealing their lack of creativity by returning to the attic of adjectives by telling us of the “tinder dry” conditions.  I saw an anchorman described “howling winds” only to have the reporter on the scene say that there were not windy conditions normally associated with Southern California wildfires.  However, it must be pointed out that local winds will increase around the fires..perhaps up to 30 mph simply from the fire itself creating the winds.  Well, almost anytime there is a fire in Southern California, saying conditions are “tinder dry” would probably be accurate.  See, the area does not get that much rain. That is why they write songs that say things like it “seems it never rains in Southern California.”   The Los Angeles average rainfall is only about 14 inches.  Los Angeles water sources includes about 30% from groundwater and the remains from other sources including the Colorado River. 

Modern Borait Bomber-DC 10 Tanker holds 12,000 gallons

Modern Borait Bomber-DC 10 Tanker holds 12,000 gallons

The current fire season has been difficult and aside from the tragic loss in life and destruction of property and disruption to ecosystems, the fiscal cost to the state is going to make the financial crisis in California even worse.  They are only 2 months into the fiscal year but have already spent nearly two thirds of the fire protection budget.   Reports have a bit of encouragement as the big Station Fire is said to be 5% contained with a hope to have it 10% contained shortly.  That means its still 90% out of control and some estimates reveal an expectation of it not being totally contained, not doused, for another two weeks. 

The California Emergency Management Interactive Fire Map shows that there are other fires in California. There is a very large number of incident reports constantly being updated.   But the Station Fire is the largest having grown to about 121,000 square acres by Tuesday evening.  It continues to threaten the communications towers on top of  Mt. Wilson and the FCC is setting out a plan to help should the towers be compromised.   Weather conditions are not expected to change too much though I’ve seen that patchy fog is expected to start appearing in the next few mornings which leads me to believe that there will be an increase in the moisture content of the air.  Temperatures are also forecast to back off.  But, don’t expect much in the way of help from Hurricane Jemina.

Hurricane Jimena Satellite Rainbow IR 22Z 09.01.09

Hurricane Jimena Satellite Rainbow IR 22Z 09.01.09

Hurricane Jimena Forecast Track 5pm EDT Sept 1 2009

Hurricane Jimena Forecast Track 5pm EDT Sept 1 2009

Hurricane Jemina is losing some of its punch and will continue to do so.  While news reporters have reveled in reporting it was a category 4 hurricane was heading toward Baja California, they didn’t mention too much that it was forecast to weaken.  There is something called the California Stream.  Its the opposite of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic that Benjamin Franklin discovered is a natural current that transports warm water from around the Gulf of Mexico to up near England.  The California Stream takes cold water from Alaska and transports it down the Pacific Coast of the US.  Hurricane Jimena is running into some of that cold water off the west coast of Baja California.  But, the structures in many areas of Baja California are pretty much substandard so even a hurricane with 100 mph winds will cause trouble.  The exact track of the storm is a bit up in the air.  But there is ridge in Mexico that seems to generally be in charge of the steering which means that the storm will eventually end up in northern New Mexico and probably whats left of it will get caught up in a front in the United States and make its way to the Ohio Valley or northern plains.  It is improbable that the hurricane will turn toward Southern California.  I suspect that the only thing it will do is maybe increase humidity levels a shade and cause the wind flow to take a more consistent northerly component.

Sea Surface Temperatures Sept 1 2009

Sea Surface Temperatures Sept 1 2009

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009

EARLIER DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATED THAT JIMENA WAS COMPLETING ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE…WITH THE INNER EYE DISSIPATING AND THE NEW EYE ABOUT
25-30 N MI ACROSS.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST AN INTENSITY NEAR
115 KT AT THAT TIME.  SINCE THEN…THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER
HAVE WARMED AND THE EYE HAS NOT CLEARED OUT.  BASED ON THIS…IT IS
ESTIMATED THAT JIMENA HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE MORE…AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 110 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/10.  JIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A
GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO…WITH ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE FORECAST BECOMES
LESS CONFIDENT FROM 72 HR ON DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE GFDL AND GFDN STILL CALL FOR JIMENA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE
REST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE EITHER STALLS THE CYCLONE OVER
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA OR TURNS IT WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC.
THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO HIGHER PRESSURES DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE…AND THE SYSTEM SHEARING APART AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS THROUGH THROUGH 72 HR…AND THEN IS SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK IS JUST RIGHT OF THE
CENTER OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HR…AND CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON
THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 36 HR.

IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE NOTABLE INTENSIFICATION
AT THE END OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE…AS JIMENA IS STARTING
TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  A FASTER WEAKENING
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL…AND AN EVEN FASTER WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IN ABOUT 72
HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THAT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JIMENA COULD
WEAKEN MORE THAN FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.

INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS…SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA…AND SMALL DEVIATIONS
LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/2100Z 21.9N 111.2W   110 KT
12HR VT     02/0600Z 23.3N 112.0W   105 KT
24HR VT     02/1800Z 25.2N 112.7W    95 KT
36HR VT     03/0600Z 26.5N 113.1W    85 KT
48HR VT     03/1800Z 27.6N 113.4W    55 KT…INLAND
72HR VT     04/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W    35 KT…INLAND
96HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W    25 KT…OVER WATER
120HR VT     06/1800Z 30.5N 113.5W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Wall Street Journal: Crawfish Poaching On Law Enforcement Table! Tropics: Danny Birthing?
August 25, 2009

You Won't Get Me Without a Fight!

You Won't Get Me Without a Fight!

Cat a Crawfish Poacher?

Cat a Crawfish Poacher?

The Wall Street Journal is famous for bringing the business news of the day.  Now, we typically think of that as being financial stuff like stocks and bonds.  The journal though covers business in general and there is a certain business that is much bigger than you might think that is under a world wide threat from thieves.  The journal calls it crayfish, I but in Louisiana, which is the largest producer of the crustacean in the nation, they say crawfish.  When we say production, we don’t mean they run around and hunt the little critters down but instead there are giant farms, and there is a difference between wild crawfish and farm raised crawfish.  In the 2007-2008 season, 1300 crawfish farms in Louisiana produced  109 million pounds of mudbugs with 280 licensed crawfisherman brought in just 1.3 million pounds of crawfish.  In 2007, wild and farm raised catfish in Louisiana produced some $94 million in revenue.  Whether farmer or fishermen, the little guys generally only net about a dollar a pound so you need to have a lot to make any money.

Tasmanian Giant Freshwater Crawfish

Tasmanian Giant Freshwater Crawfish

But, its not just Louisiana.  There are crawfish farming operations in many other places and they all have a common problem.  Whether it be the bayous of Louisiana, farms in California or down under in Australia, crawfish poaching is becoming a big problem.  The Louisiana legislature passed laws that make it a felony with jail time of up to 10 years for nabbing someone elses crawfish.  The story in the Wall Street Journal illustrates a situation in which an armed guard fired his weapon at people who were just wandering by a crawfish farm and were simply suspected of being poachers.  In Australia, they are investigating the infiltration of organized crime into the business of stealing your everyday crawfish as well as a certain variety that grows to giant proportions and is known as a yabby. The Tasmanian Giant Freshwater Crawfish can be as large as 3 feet!

Shellfish stealing has long been a problem since the crop might sit in a trap for an extended period, making it an easy target for theives.  Lobster fisherman in Maine have long been armed, dangerous and PO’d at would be thieves.  One guy in San Diego got convicted of smuggling Lobsters in his pants.  OUCH!  But in the shellfish world, crawfish have been overlooked but not any more.  With global seafood prices on the rise, crawfish have been seen as an alternative and their value is also increasing.  So, if you come upon a friendly crawfish, better leave him alone, he may be protected by a gentleman with a very large gun who won’t be afraid to use it.

Invest92L 1345Z 08.25.09

Invest92L 1345Z 08.25.09

Invest 92L Spaghetti Model 12Z 08.25.09

Invest 92L Spaghetti Model 12Z 08.25.09

Invest 92L Spaghetti Intensity Model 12Z 08.25.09

Invest 92L Spaghetti Intensity Model 12Z 08.25.09

Invest 92L Rainbow IR Satellite

Invest 92L Rainbow IR Satellite

Invest 92L is an area of low pressure that has been interacting with an upper low east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.  Typically, an upper low may create an interesting area of clouds and storms on the satellite for an untrained eye.  But, upper lows are no good for tropical development.  In this case, the upper low is expected to either fall apart or move along, leaving behind the robust surface tropical wave.  The NHC expects that to happen and put the system in an area that is conducive for development.  They have put a high probability of that happening. If it becomes a named storm, it would be Danny.  The general consensus with the modeling data is that the ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic that backed off and allowed Hurricane Bill to turn north into the Atlantic will not build a whole lot back west.  And there is another oddball trof that is progged to dig through the Ohio Valley toward the Gulf Coast.  That  will pick up the storm and turn it north.  But, there is an inconsistency of the route.  The Canadian model insists on creating a hurricane and sending into North Carolina and up the East Coast. Other models do not develop the storm much beyond a depression, but that may be due to initiation issues than anything else.  Several models have it running a route closer to the US coast but similar to Bill while others have it hug the northeast coast.  My guess is that this will probably develop to some degree and probably affect the US coast.

Weather Bottom Line:  We still benefit from the previous front and trof with cool nights and warm, but relatively dry afternoons.  By the end of the week, rain chances may increase with the approach of the aforementioned frontal system but I suspect that moisture will be so limited that substantial rain will be difficult.

1st Atomic Bomb: Destructive But Small by Today’s Standard-A Party Popper Compared to Nature
August 6, 2009

 HiroshimaCloudLarge

Model of Little Boy

Model of Little Boy

On This Date in History:

At about 8 AM on August 6, 1945, the first atomic bomb was unleashed on Hiroshima, Japan. We all know the history of that. Perhaps the greatest benefit of the atomic blast on Hiroshima and the subsequent dropping of “Fat Man” on Nagasaki is that the world saw what the energy from such a weapon can do. President Truman was a little loose with the facts when he urged Japan to surrender or he promised a “reign of ruin” for the nation. Truth is, the US only had the two bombs and it would have taken awhile to make more.

 

The bomb dropped on Hiroshima was called “Little Boy” and weighed nearly 10,000 pounds.  It was flown to the target in a single B-29, which was piloted by Kentucky Paul Tibbets.  Tibbets called the plane the Enola Gay, which was a reference to his mother.  When the bomb was tested in the New Mexico desert about 6 weeks prior, a blind girl 120 miles away reportedly “saw” the light.  The heat from the test gadget had turned the desert to glass.  So, when the bombadier of the Enola Gay released the bomb,  Tibbets banked the plane quickly to reduce the impact of the shock wave and to reduce the effect of the blinding flash at detonation.  Navigator Dutch Van Kirk recalled the event vividly.   But, he banked so hard and headed away so fast at such an angle that the target was not seen until well after the initial blast.  So, when you see video of the atomic bomb exploding just after detonation, you know that its of “Fat Man” and not “Little Boy” because the most complete footage was from the second blast at Nagasaki. 
Col. Paul Tibbets

Col. Paul Tibbets

 

The bombadier had done his practice well.  He missed the target by just 800 feet.  But, one doesn’t have to be too close when using an atomic bomb. The release time was 8:15 AM.  An air pressure detonator began the nuclear fission at 1980 feet at 8:16 AM.  At that instant, 66,000 people were killed and 69,000 injured.  Estimates vary but in the years to come, thousands more would die from their injuries, radiation sickness and cancers that were linked to the blast.  The actual explosion was about 10 kilotons, or about 10,000 tons of TNT, though I’ve seen some sources site 20 kilotons. It is estimated today that the rather crude instrument only yielded an energy release just 1/50th of its capability.  The nuclear weapon with the greatest yield ever produced by the United States was the Mk 41, which had a blast equivalent of 25 million tons of TNT, though some sources claim it was 15 megatons.

 

Little Boy had a vaporization radius of about a half mile….everything within a half mile was vaporized.  Total destruction occured within a 1 mile radius.  Severe blast damage was felt within 1.75 miles of the detonation zone.  Severe heat damage was felt within 2.5 miles with the living things that survive the blast and heat suffocate from fire burning up all the oxygen.  Three miles out, fire and wind damage can still be found.  Keep in mind that winds at this radius had fallen off to 98 mph.  At its core, winds were estimated to be 320 mph.  As a comparison, a 20 Megaton explosion (20 million tons of TNT) would have an optimum effect with a detonation at 17,500 feet.  The vaporization radius of nearly 9 miles would be 18 times greater than the Hiroshima bomb.  Total destruction would occur 14 miles out with severe blast damage conditions extending 27 miles from ground zero.  Everything flammable would be burning at 31 miles and damaging winds of near 100 mph would stretch out some 35 miles.  And keep this in mind…

 

Little Boy Tiny Compared to Tsar Bomb

Little Boy Tiny Compared to Tsar Bomb

The Soviet Union once designed a weapon, named the Tsar Bomb(aka Tsar Bomba, Big Ivan and King of Bombs), to have a yield of 100 megatons, but it was only tested at 50 megatons to cut down on the fall out…so glad they cared.  The 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake yielded 9,560 gigatons of TNT, which I suppose is over 9.5 trillion tons of TNT, but that was at the core.  The surface rupture energy release was just 26 megatons.  An earthquake in Chile in 1960 is said to have released 60,000 gigatons of TNT energy equivalent.  A typical Supernova has an energy release estimated to be around 10 octillian tons of TNT,which is 10 to the power of 28. 
Tsar Would Obliterate Chicago

Tsar Would Obliterate Chicago

So, man can build much greater destructive mechanisms than the initial atomic blast in the New Mexico desert or the second in Hiroshima or the third in Nagasaki.  But as the numbers bear out, man comes nothing remotely close to the energy release capability of nature, which is why some point out that it is rather arrogant to think that man can destroy the world.   But that is little consolation to those who suffer at the still massive destructive capability of man.    Atomic weapons have never have been used again thanks in large part to the awesomely devastating and tragic affect that  “Little Boy”  and then “Fat Man” brought on the Japanese Empire. Let us hope that is a lesson never lost on the world.

SnowWhite_kiss_Dopey_HugsSo, what about Snow White?
While Disney Studios  has provided what could be the perfect wedding photo of my bride and I, my Snow White began her tale on this date in history.   She entered a world of such complication and fear,  yet, she has since pranced about spreading joy and love and happiness to all creatures great and small who have crossed her path.  Even the uncontrolable  Nit and Wit have fallen under her spell.  Walt Disney had come up with his own version eighteen years earlier but the teenager was no match for the little infant. She grew up to be deemed an angel by many, a source of Faith and Hope to others and a wife to me. She gives so much to so many, that I have to remind her that its sometimes good to receive. Her volunteer work at the Cabbage Patch has been consistent and heart felt and the kids give her more love than I could ever muster in a single lifetime. As much as I try, I will never be able to live up to the ideals of a Prince, so instead I have taken on the role of Dopey and I now have Hope that I have a place on this planet.  Anyone who has ever met Snow White knows that she is a truely blessed soul.  The Lord was having a good day when he shared her with us on this date in history and every day since.

 

Weather Bottom Line:  We’re drying out today.  A fine day in store and we deserve it.  Here is a full gallery of the flooding story with photos and graphics from the NWS.  We heat up to the mid 80’s and move to the lower 90’s by the weekend….first time since June.
 

Drive through crime: Even by the Cops! Serial Killers are Sometimes Women
July 23, 2009

Time-To-Call-911

I’m not sure if it’s because of the economy and people’s nerves are rattled or perhaps its simply due to the age of the internet,  But, it would seem on the surface that more and more people are calling 911 when the get upset over the service they get at a fast food joint. We explored the instance of a woman who called 911  for not getting her shrimp on her rice.   

We’ve seen the case of the missing Orange Juice at McDonalds.  The Oregon man said that the clerk not including his box of OJ  with order was somehow fringing on his right to free speech. 

Gimme My Big Mac!

Gimme My Big Mac!

Snopes presents the situation in which a California woman called the cops over her cheeseburger.  However, in this case, the dispatcher decided not to send an officer and told the lady to take her grievance up with management.

How about this Jacksonville Florida man who called the cops, not once but twice. He must really want fast service.   He called 911 to complain that the sauce was left off his subway sandwich.  Then he called a second time to complain that the cops didn’t get there fast enough.  Well, the cops provided some pretty quick service when they arrived.  The caller was taken directly to jail.

 But what happens when the angry patrons at a fast food establishment are the cops!  That’s what happened in Aurora, CO when these two cops pulled a gun at McDonald’s because their food service was slow.  The clerks say the police car pulled up to the window and when they didn’t get their food fast enough, the driver flashed his badge, pulled his gun and then drove off without paying.

On This Date in History: Doesn’t it seem like there is so much bad news these days? And not just bad news but weird, scary stuff that makes one wonder if the world has just gone haywire. Jeffery Dahmer and cannibalism? What about Andrea Yates and killing her children in her Houston home bathtub a few years ago? Well, hold on just a second. Dahmer was not the first person in America to do the things he did, though he did do more of it. And Yates was not the first woman to go and kill her kids.

For instance, on this date in 1918 in Nebraska, Della Sorenson killed the first of seven people. She poisoned her sister-in-law’s infant daughter. Two years later, she knocked off her mother-in-law. Then she killed her own daughter and her husband. Four months after her husband’s death, she marries again and her former sister-in-law shows up with her new son. She poisoned him too. The sister-in-law had to have problems of her own because she showed up a few months later with another baby but this one lucked out because the poison didn’t work. After her poison tote board reached 7, Della was finally caught in 1925 when her plot to poison two neighborhood kids with cookies was foiled. She confessed to it all saying, “I like to go to funerals.”

Bush had support from other worlds

Bush had support from other worlds

Now that ranks up there with the kid who several years ago shot a bunch of people on a Monday because he didn’t like Mondays. But with modern, instant electronic news these days, stories of all kinds get flashed around the world. TV has lots of newstime to fill, talk radio has to fill its time to talk about something, there’s all sorts of space on the Internet to fill and newspapers and magazines have to come up with something to get your attention from all the other medium available.   That may explain all of the 911 call stories from fast food joints.  The sensational has worked on me as I have bought newspapers in the grocery store so I could read about the space aliens meeting with President Clinton and Rush Limbaugh!

They Say Liz Bathed in her Victims' Blood

They Say Liz Bathed in her Victims' Blood

Anyway, the result is we hear of every little tid bit of any topic that might catch our attention. I found a webpage with an index of serial killers with a list of guilty women with but a few of the gruesome, gory and idiotic heinous crimes over the centuries. There’s even one from the early 17th century in Hungary where Elizabeth Bathory was found to have killed hundreds of young girls simply for the sadistic pleasure of torture. The servants who helped her were tried and executed immediately but because she was royalty (a Countess) she was merely incarcerated. From 1660 to 1678, Catherine DeShayes (La Voisin) of Paris admitted to tossing over 2500 infants to their fiery deaths in a witchcraft ritual. She didn’t have a royal title so she was burned at the stake, and its probably good for the people of the world back then they did not have cable TV because they would probably think that their world was going crazy, just like many do today. Truth is, mankind has always had awful messed up things happen because of the awful, messed up things some people do….it’s just no one knew about and there was no one around to talk about it every second of every day. If Anna Nicole had died in 1636, would anyone know?

Weather Bottom Line:  The expected rainy day came about. I  don’t think that we had a record cool day because the official high was 79 at just after midnight.  But, for most of the day, we were in the upper 60’s.  The system is lifting out and we should be dry but still cooler than average for the rest of the work week.  Next front is on the weekend.  If we do not reach 90 degrees in the next 8 days, it will be the first time ever that Louisville did not reach 90 degrees in July. 

Massive Solar Storm Predicted by Crop Circles, One Observatory-NASA silent; Underwear Stories
July 8, 2009

Photo of Sun supposedly shot July 6 shows huge sunspot

Photo of Sun supposedly shot July 6 shows huge sunspot


Recent Crop Circle in England

Recent Crop Circle in England

One of our local regular readers, Cruxshadows, brought forth some interesting information and a question.  A crop circle in England predicts 5 massive solar eruptions which will affect the earth.  Now, these Coronal Mass Ejections, were to begin yesterday.  But, the crop circle forecast does fall within the time frame of the noted increase in solar activity cycle.  If this does occur, then there will be great interest to see how the plasma reacts with a breach in the earth’s magnetosphere, which was found by NASA in December of last year.  Of course, there’s no word on how the crop circles got there in the last ten days of June.  The crop circle caper seems to mesh quite nicely with this report yesterday of the largest sunspot ever witnessed  It also fits in with the idea that, with the sun’s 11 year cycle, we are in a period of increased solar activity with the peak not expected until 2013.  

NASA says the sun is quiet

NASA says the sun is quiet

Here’s the problem.  NASA reports the exact opposite.  It claims in its 3 day forecast from yesterday that solar activity was “very low” and that “no x-ray flares were observed during the past 24 hours.”   It predicts that solar activity will remain very low.  So the question on the table from Cruxshadows is, do we believe the government (NASA) or do we believe those who interpret the crop circles?  Do we believe NASA’s report that nothing much is going on or do we believe the report of Wappa Falls Observatory claiming that so much is going on that  “the flares have been so bright that NASA has had trouble taking accurate pictures of the sunspot.”  I’ve found other stories about  the Australian observatory’s claims, but there seems to be a disconnect.  I suppose we’ll find out the veracity of the crop circle prediction and the Wappa observations soon enough.  But Cruxshadows wants to know whom to believe?  The government, the Australian astronomers or the Crop Circle?  Two things to note.  The Wappa Falls Astronomical Observatory in Australia doesn’t seem to have a website, which seems a bit odd in the 21st century.  Further, the stories that I’ve found seem to come from the same source.  Hoax? maybe.  Guess we’ll have to wait and see. I question why NASA would cover this up or how they could make such a mistake?  It doesn’t make sense, to me.

F stands for Floods

F stands for Floods

I have an old friend. Let’s just call him “F”.  “F” once pondered how men didn’t really get into the scene, if you know what I mean, when a man and woman in a movie shoot a sex scene.  I suppose the idea of professionalism gets tossed out in “F’s” world.  But, you gotta  admit, some of those scenes, even on the soap operas, can get pretty steamy.  Maybe too steamy for some viewer’s taste.  Anyway, it seems that actor Ryan Reynolds was given a little insurance that he didn’t get to worked up during a nude scene with Sandra Bullock in his recent movie, The Proposal.  Ryan Reynolds wore cellophane underwear. 

Reynolds: See-Through Undies?

Reynolds: See-Through Undies?

A Louisiana man was arrested after a 72 year old woman called the police after she heard noises and saw someone in her backyard going into her shed.  The Alexandria Town Talk reports the man was clad only in his undies when the police clapped the old bracelets on him when they witnessed him trying to break into the woman’s house.  Maybe he was looking for some hand-me-downs.

Meanwhile, in Britain, the recession is hitting hard.  So hard, in fact, that people apparently aren’t going out on the town so much.  So, people are having to improvise.  Lingerie and “racy underwear” sales are up over 50% since the recession began.  Not sure who took the time to find out that odd statistic.  I guess it gives a new meaning to “a cheap date.”

On This Date in History: THIS MAN WAS SAVED BY ANOTHER MAN’S UNDERWEAR!!! John Wesley Powell was a self-taught geologist and naturalist who had lost his right arm at the Battle of Shiloh. He is credited with charting the Grand Canyon and went on to lead the US Geological Survey and Bureau of American Ethnology. When making what would be the first trip through the Grand Canyon with a 9 man party down the Colorado River, they stopped to do some surveys. On this date in 1869, the one armed Powell and George Bradley gingerly moved along a shear cliff when Powell made a short leap and found himself stuck with no where to go. Bradley was above him and tried to find a branch or something to extend to Powell, whose legs and one hand were giving out. Quick thinking ensued. Bradley stripped off his long underwear and lowered them down. Bravely, Powell let loose with his hand and quickly grabbed the dangling drawers. The fabric held, Powell was pulled to safety and he lived to tell about it and map the Grand Canyon. If this story happened today, can you imagine the commercials? “Acme Longjohns….So tough it saves lives!”

Weather Bottom Line:  Remember that I mentioned the boundary sagging down our way and potentially bringing some insignificant showers here?  Well, I wasn’t too enthused about the prospects so Snow White and I ventured out to do some sculling yesterday afternoon and it was wonderful, though I got a little overheated.  Had a headache all night.  Well, it just so happens that the airport reported .01″ of rain this morning!  Aha! Vindicated.  But who cares, right?  Other than that little bit of information, everything else is on line.  Upper 80’s today, maybe a stray afternoon t’storm.  Upper 80’s tomorrow.  Low 90’s Friday and Saturday with maybe an errant storm on Saturday with activity more likely on Sunday as another front tries to make its way our direction.

Miss California Fired!
June 10, 2009

Miss CA Gets Fired!

Miss CA Gets Fired!

Will this be the end of Civilization as we know it? Read the story links below!

Yahoo
SFIST

Huffington Post
NYDaily News 
 

CitizenLink
TMZ…The REAL IMPORTANT NEWS!

Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast From 4.30.09; Dodge Boys Wives Sell Company Just in Time
April 30, 2009

dodge_boys

 

SPC Outlook Fri AM to Sat AM (Derby Day)

SPC Outlook Fri AM to Sat AM (Derby Day)

 

SPC Severe Outlook Sat AM to Sun AM

SPC Severe Outlook Sat AM to Sun AM

Kentucky Derby Weather: (For the most recent update click here) On the one hand, my previous assessment that Wednesday would be generally dry for most people was pretty much on the mark.  The front sagged to the South.  There was rain to the South and scattered heavy downpours to the north but Louisville was in decent shape and Snow White and I had a good time watching the Great Steamboat Race.  There is an important change in the data though for Derby Day and handicappers need to keep an eye on this before wagering.  In fact, I would suggesting holding your bets until Saturday.   This forecast was put together based on data available late Wednesday night.

SPC Severe Outlook Thu Midday To Fri AM

SPC Severe Outlook Thu Midday To Fri AM

Now, we still have a pretty healthy chance for rain on Thursday.  The front lifts back north as a warm front.   The temperatures aloft will again be relatively warm so lapse rates will be weak.  The jet streak across the area should also move out.  But, lower level winds may increase creating a forcing situation in which air is forced upward.  For that reason, the Storm Predicton Center has put us on the edge of the slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday.   If we get storms, they would probably be independent guys and bring the potential for gusty winds.  The moisture in the atmosphere is through the roof so there would be the potential for heavy downpours.  Should one or two of these guys go supercellular, then there could be a risk for an isolated tornado.

Friday 8am

Friday 8am

Friday, we have similar surrounding circumstances but this time we have a cold front approaching.  That guy should create enough lift to create line segments of thunderstorms, some of which could be rather strong.  For the Kentucky Oaks, it is entirely possible that there will be rain from time to time during the races with rain chances and the threat for strong storms near the end of the day.  If race goers are lucky, the front will be pokey enough that the storms would hold off until  after the Oaks race itself.

Sat 8AM (Derby Day)

Sat 8AM (Derby Day)

Saturday is the biggest change.  It had been advertised as being dry on Saturday, squeezing a good day in between unsettled ones as the front slides south.  Well, the front still slides south but there a rather deep low up around the Great Lakes that will be wandering by and from that a trof may extend through the Ohio Valley.  That weakness in the atmosphere as it rolls through may create some shower activity.  Handicappers need to check the drying potential of the track.  I think they’ve done a pretty good job with drainage over the years.  Now, the weakness coming through does show up as rain showers off and on both the 18Z Wed GFS and NAM vertical profile based indecies.  But, since it’s post frontal, the deep and abundant moisture should be south and so I would not expect there to be heavy rain, just passing showers.  Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 60’s but I think that the biggest issue would be that, if the track is not dry from the Friday rain, then the passing showers would only aggravate the situtation.  If it does dry out, then I would think the conditions would be livable, unless your horse doesn’t like to run in the rain.  Guess here is that the track is taken care of such that it won’t be that wet regardless of the Thursday and Friday rain amounts and that the passing showers or light rain on Saturday will not aggravate the conditions much.  However, keep in mind…I don’t know much about horse racing.  Hold your bets to make sure that the front does indeed move through on Friday night.  I have not seen any data that would suggest otherwise.  Sunday rain chances increase again.

See the severe weather discussion below for Friday 8 am to Saturday 8 am from midday Thursday 4.30.09.

On This Date In History Lots of things happened on this date: Washington’s first inaugural address in 1789, Louisiana Purchase in 1803. Michael Jackson’s “Beat It” debuted in 1983 and then in 1997, Ellen “came out.” The last two go in the “who cares?” category as far as I’m concerned. I like this one in 1925.

John and Horace Dodge

John and Horace Dodge

Dodge Brothers, Inc. was sold on this date in 1925 to an investment group (Dillon, Reed and Co,) for $146 million and then they tossed in another $50 million for charitable purposes.  $196 million in 1925 would be nearly $2.4 billion in 2008! A! I like this one because it first shows us the derivation of the Dodge Boys. The commercials for Dodge used to say “come and see your local Dodge Boys.” I thought

Walter Built a Cool Building But Timing on Buying Dodge Not So Cool

Walter Built a Cool Building But Timing on Buying Dodge Not So Cool

that modern PC sensativities snuffed that and I always figured that the saying was just from some sexist ad man in the ’50’s. Now I think differently as I suspect the term came from the fact that there were two brothers…the Dodge boys. The Dodge boys died in 1920.  Horace Dodge passed away in January 1920 and John Dodge followed suit in December 1920.  They had never let any of their family members in on the business. In 1921 there had been a slight recession in the stock market. So, the widows of the Dodge Boys were defacto in charge of the company but really had no clue what they were doing and a few years later the 20’s were roaring again. Afraid of another market dip, the ladies decided to sell in the biggest corporarte sale to that time. I suspect that if you take inflation into account, it would still list as one of the biggest. It was a good move for Dodge Ladies too because just 4 years later, the stock market tanked and there is little doubt it took decades for the stock price to recover.  Walter Chrysler’s timing wasn’t so good.  A year before the bottom fell out of the market, he bought Dodge Brothers for $170 million.

I won’t talk too much about this date in 1945 when Hitler committed suicide except to point out some things that may have been missing in your history class. Just before he pulled the trigger, Hitler expelled Hermann Goering and Heinrich Himmler from the Nazi party for not carrying out some of his last, insane commands. That is why he named Admiral Karl Doenitz to take his place and it was Doenitz who ultimately surrendered for Germany. A book by a man named C.L. Sulzberger that I would describe as something for

Goebbels Family Before Dad had Them All Killed

Goebbels Family Before Dad had Them All Killed

public consumption and not necessarily an academic work nonetheless has an interesting observation. He described Eva Braun as “plump.” Never heard of that before. At 3:15 Eva took poison. At 3:30 Hitler shot himself.  Joseph Goebbels had an SS guy shoot he and his wife…not sure if the wife agreed with that…but, I bet shooting old Joe was an easy order to follow. Here’s what I don’t get…they got shot after they poisoned their six kids! What did they do except get born to a moronic man? And then Hitler made sure his favorite dog was poisoned before he killed himself. I guess he thought the dog might talk. This stuff is important only in that people need to know that there was nothing redeeming about these people or their ideas and they were totally warped in every sense. Kids need to know the totality of their insanity before anyone can come and convince them that there is anything admirable or enviable to emulate.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

VALID 011200Z – 021200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THRU THE OZARK PLATEAU….

…SYNOPSIS…
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL GENERALLY BECOME
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY…NEAR THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH…TO THE EAST OF A BLOCKING UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE YUKON
TERRITORY.  HOWEVER…A STRONG ZONAL JET ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.  GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
WEAKENING…SPLITTING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THIS STREAM
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES.  AT LEAST WEAK DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER HALF
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…THOUGH THIS MAY BE SUPPRESSED
SOMEWHAT…ACROSS PARTS OF UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST…BY
A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE MIGRATING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION.  A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY ADVANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST…BEFORE SLOWING OR
STALLING NEAR NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND THE OHIO RIVER
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

…UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST…
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN CANADIAN IMPULSE…AND A REMNANT
SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE…APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THIS…COUPLED WITH THE POSSIBLE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING
EARLY DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS…SUGGESTS THAT
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ADVANCING INTO THE REGION WILL BE LOW…DESPITE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING.  FRONTAL FORCING COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO
THE EVOLUTION OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY…PARTICULARLY WHERE BETTER SURFACE HEATING OCCURS TO THE LEE
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  HOWEVER…GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK
LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER FORCING ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FRONT…STRONG/
SEVERE STORMS PROBABLY WILL BE SPARSE IN COVERAGE AT BEST.

…SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU…
AS A GULF RETURN FLOW CONTINUES…DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
TOWARD 70F…TO THE SOUTH OF THE SLOWLY MOVING OR STALLING SURFACE
FRONT.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES…BUT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER CAPPING WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS DAYTIME CONVECTION IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING.  LIFT NEAR THE DRY LINE/ FRONT
INTERSECTION OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SEEMS TO
OFFER THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE INITIATION OF LATE AFTERNOON
STORMS.  IF THIS OCCURS…CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000+ J/KG WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR…GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY PRONOUNCED VEERING OF
WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WITH HEIGHT.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE…WHICH COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE…STRENGTHENING FORCING ALONG/ NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
OVERNIGHT…ON THE NOSE OF A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
JET…BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW…PROBABLY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  LARGE
HAIL…PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS…MAY ACCOMPANY EVOLVING STORM CLUSTERS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO  THE OZARKS.

..KERR.. 04/30/2009

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