Tropical Storm Kyle Has No Head; Invest 94 is Onshore


0926 NAM 850mb 12 hr

0926 NAM 850mb 12 hr

Here is a story regarding the area of low pressure that moved into the Carolina coasts. I told you yesterday that the storm was affecting the coast with some pretty good winds. There have been power outages, trees down and that sort of thing. I also stated my opinion that it really wasn’t tropical but that I had guessed that sometimes they seem to give storms that will affect the public adversely a name and call it sub-tropical just to alert the public of a concern. People tend to take more notice of storms with a name than not. But, I’ve been saying for some time that the storm was a cold core, meaning that the temperatures were falling with height like a run of the mill low pressure and not getting warmer like a tropical low. In THIS STORY, the guy from the NWS in Raleigh claims that “this was very close to a tropical system.” I disagree. If you look at the 850 mb map to the left, you can clearly see the difference between a tropical and non-tropical system. Granted this is a 12 hour forecast graphic from the 12Z NAM. If you look at the red lines, they indicate cooling temperatures going into the center of the inland low down to 12 C. Conversely, if you look to the right of that feature at Kyle, then you see rising contours to 18C at the center of Kyle. The onshore storm was not close to being tropical. To me, even on satellite, it didn’t look tropical. I think that the boys at the NHC just couldn’t bring themselves to give it a name given that they had so little to hang their hats on regarding the tropical definition.

Tropical Storm Kyle Visible Satellite 0926 1515Z

Tropical Storm Kyle Visible Satellite 0926 1515Z

Tropical Storm Kyle forecast track 0926 11AM

Tropical Storm Kyle forecast track 0926 11AM

Now, Tropical Storm Kyle, is a different story. It has all of the tropical

Tropical Storm Kyle spaghetti Model 0926 12Z

Tropical Storm Kyle spaghetti Model 0926 12Z

characteristics but its got its own trouble. Winds aloft are knocking off its hat. The upper winds from the west or southwest from around the inland low is not allowing for a concentric storm. The storms and convection are to the right of the center. But, as Kyle moves north, it will have an opportunity to get its head straight and gain strength. It will squeeze through the low to the west and a building ridge in the Atlantic and get shot like a watermelon seed to the north. I suspect initially that it is being drawn a little west as it wants to go toward the low but the flow is more north. As was the key with Hurricane Ike, the high will determine if it hits the Northeast US or not. If the ridge builds sufficiently, then it gets shoved farther west. If it weakens a bit as is forecast, then the storm goes into Nova Scotia. A couple of things work against the New England scenario is that the westerlies at that latitude is pretty significant as well as corioliis parameters. Nevertheless, it is close enough that northeast interests should keep tabs on Kyle

Here is the Tropical Storm Kyle National Hurricane Center Discussion:

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008

1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0926 12Z

Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0926 12Z

KYLE IS SHOWING A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING…WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT…WHILE RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATES BELIEVABLE WINDS OF 45 KT. BASED ON THIS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT WOBBLY 340/11…SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OTHER THAN THAT…THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. KYLE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC…AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT…KYLE MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN END OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAST THE NORTHERN END OF THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN AND HOW SOON KYLE MAY ACQUIRE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION…AS SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL. HOWEVER…THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE…WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO…BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AFTER THAT…KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG…BUT DIVERGENT…UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW….WITH THE RESULTING SHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCE TRYING TO STRENGTHEN IT. WHICH OF THESE INFLUENCES WILL BE THE STRONGEST IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KYLE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE FIRST 48 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE…BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HR. AFTER 48 HR…KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM INTO VERY COLD WATER. WHILE THIS AND THE EXPECTED ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE KYLE TO WEAKEN…IT MAY STILL BE OF HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER REACHES NEW ENGLAND OR THE MARITIMES. AFTER LANDFALL…KYLE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL…EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 26.4N 68.8W 50 KT

12HR VT 27/0000Z 28.6N 69.4W 55 KT

24HR VT 27/1200Z 31.7N 69.9W 60 KT

36HR VT 28/0000Z 35.5N 69.8W 65 KT

48HR VT 28/1200Z 39.5N 68.7W 70 KT

72HR VT 29/1200Z 46.5N 66.0W 50 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 30/1200Z 52.0N 62.0W 40 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 01/1200Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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