for a whole mess of hurricane ike damage photos, videos and stories, CLICK HERE and scroll down through the blog
for updates on hurricane kyle, CLICK HERE and scroll to most recent heading of Hurricane Kyle
The area of low pressure followed the forecast and moved inland and is now to our east-southeast. Light showers have largely been confined to the east and southeast of Louisville and have been largely insignificant. This trend will continue. See, moisture being tapped in the Atlantic has a tough time getting over the Appallacian Mountains. Anyway, the weekend looks good for activities with cool nights and warm afternoons, though not hot like we saw earlier in the week. The big chilldown is still in the cards for the early to mid part of next week. The transition in the first part of the week may provide a much better chance for area rain.
Tropical Storm Kyle: Kyle continues to have problems. The tropical storm is stiil
in the grips of upper level winds that have messed it up. The visible satellite image shows clearly that the left side of the storm is devoid of convection and even largely absent of clouds. If it had come off of the Dominican Republic sooner then it may have not faced such a hostile environment. So, it’s Kyle’s own fault that it’s having such a tough time. The vertical structure is skewed to the northeast and, until or if it can stack itself up properly, it’s not going become a hurricane. As it moves even with the area of low pressure, formerly Invest 94, that is in the Eastern US, then the upper shears will give it an opportunity to get itself righted and perhaps become a hurricane. That’s what the forecast calls for. But, I’m not so sure its going to have enough time. While the forward speed forecast has been slowed a bit, its still going to be moving at a pretty good clip and as quickly as it moves into a good environment it will move back into one that is not so forgiving. About a third of the models want to make it a hurricane with a couple even up to Cat 2. The ultimate track continues to depend on the ridge in the Atlantic. If it’s fat enough and strong enough, then Kyle could threaten New England. But most of the guidance and the official forecast keeps it just off the main coast and moves it into Nova Scotia. This scenario would bring rough seas and surf to New England but the storm itself would largely be Canada’s problem. Look to the bottom for the National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion and the Tropical Storm Kyle Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0926 18Z.
Super Collider in Super Trouble? The Large Hadron Collider that brought fears of the world’s demise getting swallowed up into a self-induced black hole is in a bit of a pickle. I know of people who prayed that if the start-up of the device was not part of God’s plan to not let it go forth. Well, US Grant had a pet phrase, “man proposes, God disposes.” Perhaps that holds true. At least it is true for the near term as the very large and complicated machine has a major glitch. An electrical connection failed and caused a section of the magnets associated with the accelerator to fail. Early reports were that the big electron race track would be out of commission for two months. Now, some reports push the start up back to next year. The bigger they come, the harder they fall and the more complicated the machine, the greater the risk of failures. So, if you were waiting for the end of the world, you’ll have to wait a bit longer. Here’s the story.
On This Date in History: On this date in 1852, the first successful stage dramatization of Harriet Beecher Stowe’s Uncle Tom’s Cabin took place in Troy, NY. The key word here is “successful.” Stowe herself had tried to bring the novel to the stage but it failed. How could that be? The book sold over 300,000 copies in the first year. Well, if you have read the novel, then you know that it was a huge attack on the slave culture. President Lincoln, upon meeting Stowe said, “so this is the little woman who made this big war.” Obviously that was a bit of an overstatement and unfair to put that war on her head. But, it did play a role. While she had only seen one plantation, Stowe went to former slave Frederick Douglass for help in detailing slave life. Stowe was inspired by the passage of the Fugitive Slave Act of 1850 that allowed for slaves who had escaped to non-slave states in the north to be returned to slavery. Hers was the first glimpse of what slave life was really like. It brought to the attention of northerners of the brutality of many plantations and the inhuman condition brought to the slaves. This stands in sharp contrast to modern ideas.
Often in popular culture you hear the phrase “I’m no Uncle Tom” or a reference to someone as “an Uncle Tom” in derisive terms alluding to someone who knuckles under and does the white man’s bidding. But, the character of Uncle Tom in Stowe’s novel was anything but the modern vision. He was a strong figure described by many reviewers as a “Christlike figure” who was actually killed by his owner, Simon LeGree. So, how did we get such a different, opposite view of Uncle Tom? I am speculating here but I suspect that the reason Stowe’s version of Uncle Tom failed is because it followed her novel. Uncle Tom was portrayed as the strong, proud man that she had created. But the versions of the book that came to stage, and later film, that were successful presented a Tom who was a shuffling, subservient old man. My guess is that audiences, even those who opposed slavery, did not want to see a strong black man opposing and standing up to authority. That feeling remained prevalent well into the early 20th century and thus, films followed the same recipe. So, when someone is called an “Uncle Tom” it should signify characterstics of strength of characater, integrity and self-worth. Instead, due to stage and film adaptations, being called an “Uncle Tom” holds an extremely negative connotation.
It’s a shame because the novel held such significance. Stowe was attacked in print and vilified by the pro-slavery crowd and received “mountains of threatening mail.” One package was sent to her containing the severed ear of a slave! But, it’s nothing new. Today films that are supposedly based on history are often fudged, altered and fictionalized. There are other movies that make one think that they are historical when, in fact, they are largely nonsense. Do not depend on popular culture, films, TV or even the internet for your history. Read published works instead. Go to the primary source. The sad story of the evolution of Uncle Tom is a great example of how popular culture can distort or even destroy the truth.
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT KYLE IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON…WITH THE FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS AT 850 MB AND 700 MB DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1003 MB…AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTH- NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 56 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB…WITH SFMR WINDS OF 45-48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. AFTER A NUDGE TO THE LEFT THIS MORNING…KYLE HAS MADE A NUDGE TO THE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12 HR MOTION AND ADVISORY MOTION IS 345/11…BUT THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS ALMOST DUE NORTH. KYLE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC…AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT…THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS KYLE TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN END OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS…WITH MOST OF GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY. BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE AND THE INITIAL POSITION/MOTION…THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER…IT LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF ANYTHING…THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO. THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AFTER THAT…KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG…BUT DIVERGENT…UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW….WITH THE RESULTING SHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCE TRYING TO STRENGTHEN IT. A NEW COMPLICATION IS A COLD AIR MASS APPROACHING KYLE FROM THE EAST…WHICH IF IT REACHES THE CYCLONE COULD CAUSE WEAKENING OR A FASTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS…THE SHIPS…HWRF…AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR KYLE TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KT IN 36 HR. AFTER THAT TIME…KYLE WILL MOVE OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION…AND THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. KYLE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AFTER LANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA. INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/2100Z 27.6N 68.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 29.5N 69.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 32.6N 69.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 36.5N 69.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 40.3N 67.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 47.5N 64.5W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 30/1800Z 52.0N 62.0W 35 KT…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 01/1800Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
$$ FORECASTER BEVEN