Archive for August, 2009

Hurricane Katrina: Trying to find out what really went wrong is tough
August 31, 2009

 

Hurricane Katrina as Cat 5 Hurricane Well Before Landfall

Hurricane Katrina as Cat 5 Hurricane Well Before Landfall

 

hurricane-katrina-51On This Date in History:  New Oreans, Louisiana was under water on this date in 2005.   It had been affected by Hurricane Katrina, but there  are some things to remember from Katrina. Katrina was only a category three hurricane when it made landfall on Monday morning August 29, 2005. Its winds had diminished just prior to landfall. I have not read the official post-mortem on the storm but I suspect it says that it was going through an eyewall replacement cycle at landfall. That is a natural process for a hurricane when new eye forms as the old one collapses. The maximum winds decrease typically and the energy gets dispersed somewhat. So the result was that 100 mph winds went beyond Mobile but the top winds were down to 120-130 mph. But, remember, the storm previously had winds of 175 mph and just because you reduce the winds does not mean the sea will react immediately so the storm surge remained what would be associated with a category 5 storm.

Katrina Surge in MS over 8 meters

Katrina Surge in MS over 8 meters

The surge in Mississippi was well over 30 feet in places. That is because it swept up the water from the mouth of the Mississippi, which is the Mississippi Trench. The water there is about 8,000 feet deep, give or take. The water along the shelf of the Mississippi coast is about 90 feet. There is no place for the water to go but on the land.    So the surge for New Orleans was not the main surge, which went into Mississippi.  Mississippi was hit by the main force of the hurricane with New Orleans being on the western edge.  The surge to the west of the eye was still substantial and actually went up Lake Bourne with the winds ahead of the storm coming from the East and shoving the water up the intercoastal waterway and then to  the Industrial Canal and finally to the wall that collapsed into the Lower 9th Ward.  I am told that the flood wall was designed to be weaker on that side of the canal so that if there was a huge force that threatened the integrity of the wall, the main part of the city would be protected.  The Lower 9th Ward is in a natural marshy area and not a higher area like the French Quarter. 

Storm Tide up Lake Bourne From Easterly Wind Ahead of Katrina about 5 meters

Storm Tide up Lake Bourne From Easterly Wind Ahead of Katrina about 5 meters

As a review, the New Orleans Times Picayune has a site that shows the progression of flooding of New Orleans from Hurricane Katrina which includes a timeline.  When you get to the flooding of Jefferson Parish, its important to note that the pumping station had been abandoned prior to the storm by order of the Police Jury President.  The workers wanted to stay but politicians ordered them out.  The defense of the police jury is that they said it was part of a “doomsday plan” devised years before to send workers 100 miles north in the event of a major hurricane.  They say that they were prepared for a direct hit from a Category 5 hurricane.  But, many residents say they would not have been flooded had the workers been allowed to stay at their posts.  Further, at 11pm CDT on the 27th,  the National Hurricane Center Forecast was not for a direct hit on New Orleans, but instead a Mississippi landfall.    The true story of Katrina, in my mind, has not been accurately portrayed in the press.  In fact, I recall seeing a national news reporter saying from the French Quarter that the city had “dodged a bullet” when, in fact, the timeline shows that the levees on the east side of town had been over-topped hours before and the eastern suburbs were under water.   However, the true story may be years in being revealed. 

Blanco Shows Leadership Skills Following Katrina

Blanco Shows Leadership Skills Following Katrina

On Sept 5, 2005 the Washington Post reported that the Governor of Louisiana refused to ask or allow for Federal Troops and takeover of relief efforts, partly due to political concern over how it would look for a Democrat Governor needing the help of President Bush.  We have a  federation and the Federal Government cannot just willy nilly send in troops into a state unless it falls under the guidelines of the Insurrection Act.  By the time the governor had allowed the Feds in on that level, the city was already cut off.  Other reports point to the Washington Post story stating that Governor Blanco had not declared a state of emergency prior to the storm (which was false, she did) as proof that none of that is true.  

Gulfport MS: What a Direct Hit from a Major Hurricane Really Looks like..there's nothing left

Gulfport MS: What a Direct Hit from a Major Hurricane Really Looks like..there's nothing left

However, historian Douglas Brinkley wrote in his book Deluge that,  while Blanco did declare a state of emergency, she only filled out a legal form that requested Federal assistance after the storm.   Brinkley says, “If Blanco’s message to Bush had been an emphatic letter or frantic telephone call, and not merely a legal form—if it had actually communicated what wasn’t happening in Louisiana (i.e., evacuation)—various U.S. government agencies might have mobilized more quickly. Just as New Orleans wasn’t properly communicating with Baton Rouge, Baton Rouge wasn’t properly communicating to Washington, D.C. There was a chain of failures.”  Brinkley does find fault with FEMA director Mike Brown for his lack of urgency.  The fact that Brown was a little laid back is a bit odd since he had generally led hurricane relief efforts for Hurricane Ivan, Wilma, Charlie and Jean in Florida just the year before and the post storm criticism never seemed to come from Mississippi where the storm actually hit…it was just Louisiana.  But, Brinkley also points out how a member of the Louisiana legislature tried to get Mayor Ray Nagin to understand the grave situtation but that they mayor was watching Little League Baseball less than 48 hours before the storm.

There is plenty of blame to go around.  It didn’t work the way it was supposed to or should have worked.  Elections matter.  Nevertheless, while it could have and should have been better, it was going to be a disaster no matter what. Man proposes, God disposes.

Weather Bottom Line:  Louisville weather is just silly. Highs for the end of August around 75.  Same for the first day of September.  Lows in the 50’s.   We may get to 80 on Wednesday with slow climb toward end of week but it still should have pretty low humidity.

Southern California Suffers from Wildfires, Baja California Set for Major Hurricane Jimena
August 30, 2009

This Could Very Well Be the Canyon Next to our Old House

This Could Very Well Be the Canyon Next to our Old House

The Smoke and Ash from a Brush Fire is more than you can imagine

The Smoke and Ash from a Brush Fire is more than you can imagine

For an update on the wildfires and Hurricane Jimena, CLICK HERE

California Wildfires: Here is a Gallery of Photos.   In the Ohio Valley, we’ve had a pretty cool summer.  July had zero days of 90 degree temperatures for the first time in recorded history.  For the next few days, we’ll have highs in just the low to mid 70’s.  Its because there has been a general trofiness in the long wave pattern.  This pattern has contributed to such things as Hurricane Bill and Tropical Storm Danny going off the east coast toward Canada when that sort of thing is more common in October.  The other thing is that while there has been a general trof in the east, there has been a general ridge in the west, which means the other half of the country has been hotter than average and in several areas, drier than normal.  There is a big drought in Central Texas and it is quite dry  in California, which is a recipe for wildfires in an area that is typically pretty dry all by itself.  So, fires are raging near Los Angeles near my boyhood home in La Canada.  Here is an interactive map with links for fire information.  When I was a kid, La Canada was all by itself but now it more commonly called La Canada-La Crescenta-Flintridge because all of those communities have kinda run into each other.  Anyway, our old neighbors have evacuated and the area is under seige as our house backed up to the Angeles National Forest where it appears that this fire originated.  To give you an idea of how dry it is…at 8PM EDT a nearby reporting station had 9% humidity.   It is called the Station Fire.   There are many other fires though and  here is a link to wildfire incidents in California.   Governer Schwarzenegger has toured the area and issued decrees of warning. It  would be a good idea to heed calls to evacuate.

Hurricane Jimena Visible Satellte 21Z 083009

Hurricane Jimena Visible Satellte 21Z 083009

Hurricane Jimena Infrared Rainbow Image 21Z 083009

Hurricane Jimena Infrared Rainbow Image 21Z 083009

Meanwhile, Baja California is bracing for a hit from a major hurricane.  Hurricane Jimena.  It’s not totally uncommon for a storm to move due north in the Pacific but its not a typical track.  Once it veers off to the west, it will encounter some pretty cold water from the California Stream that originates in Alaska…that is why surfers often wear wetsuits on the west coast.  The water is some 20 degrees colder than say, the Gulf of Mexico this time of year.  Anyway, what will be interesting to see if some of the moisture from the hurricane will make its way far enough into California to aid in the fire fighting efforts.  Probably not a whole lot of help but even a little will be of use.

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009

Hurricane Jimena Forecast Track 2PM PDT 083009

Hurricane Jimena Forecast Track 2PM PDT 083009

JIMENA CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A QUITE
SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ON INFRARED IMAGES…THE EYE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT…SUGGESTIVE OF ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT T 6.0 FROM
BOTH AGENCIES BUT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS SUPPORT A STRONGER HURRICANE
…PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THE WARMER EYE. THEREFORE THE NHC INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS BOOSTED TO 120 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE WARM WATERS…LIGHT SHEAR…AND
MOIST TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER…THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS COULD ALSO
BE HALTED AT ANY TIME BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH. BEGINNING AROUND 48 HOURS…THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW NEAR JIMENA. THE
RESULTING INCREASE IN SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A WEAKENING
TREND…AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALSO BEYOND
48 HOURS…THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON HOW MUCH IT INTERACTS WITH LAND.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES…TYPICAL OF THE MOVEMENT OF
INTENSE HURRICANES…BUT THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
ABOUT 295/07. THE FUTURE TRACK OF JIMENA SEEMS TO DEPEND LARGELY
UPON THE EVOLUTION OF TWO MAIN FACTORS…A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. IF THE
LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD AND WEAKENS…IT WOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD
WESTWARD AND COULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO VEER WESTWARD AWAY FROM BAJA.
THAT APPEARS TO BE THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER…THOSE MODELS ARE THE WESTERN
OUTLIERS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS
THE GFS…THE HWRF…AND THE GFDL INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE
HURRICANE…SO THAT JIMENA WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TOWARD THE
RIGHT…AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER BAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
TRACKS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/2100Z 16.6N 106.8W   120 KT
12HR VT     31/0600Z 17.3N 107.7W   125 KT
24HR VT     31/1800Z 18.7N 108.7W   125 KT
36HR VT     01/0600Z 20.6N 110.0W   125 KT
48HR VT     01/1800Z 22.6N 110.8W   115 KT
72HR VT     02/1800Z 26.5N 112.5W    75 KT…INLAND
96HR VT     03/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W    50 KT…INLAND
120HR VT     04/1800Z 28.5N 115.0W    25 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Man in Charge of Taxation Falls Way Way Short on Income Tax Return, Remains in Charge
August 29, 2009

TaxEvasion

Did Rangel Just Forget?

Did Rangel Just Forget?

If you or I made a mistake on our income tax returns, did not disclose income and then were caught we’d certainly have to pay up, perhaps pay a penalty and maybe face charges.  Recently, we’ve seen public officials who not only didn’t pay their taxes, but they got appoinments even though it was revealed that they misrepresented their income on their taxes.  In some cases, it involves those who write tax law.  Charles Rangel is the Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, which is House Committee  “has the responsibility for raising the revenue required to finance the Federal Government.  This includes individual and corporate income taxes, excise taxes, estate taxes, gift taxes, and other miscellaneous taxes.”  Rangel was found to have not reported income of $75,000 on rental property.  He said it was a mistake.  He supposedly made restitution and the case was closed…or was it?

Now, the Wall Street Journal brings to light that the Chairman “amended” his 2007 returns.  He somehow overlooked at least a half million dollars in assets and income.  It may be as high as $780,000.  He somehow forgot about an account with something in between $250,000 and $500,000.  He neglected to mention accounts at JPMorgan, Merrill Lynch, Oppenheimer and BlackRock.  He neglected to mention properties own in New Jersey.  He failed to mention a fair amount of shares in YUM Brands.  He’s under investigation for using his letterhead for fundraising for a project that came to life due to a $1.9 million earmark funding from Congress….gee..wonder how that got in there? 

True Congressional Tax Policy

True Congressional Tax Policy

 

Anyway, is this the guy who you want in charge of writing tax law?  Maybe the guy just is a lousy bookkeeper.  But, on the surface it would appear that something else is afoot.  Do you ever wonder how a guy on his  salary can afford all of these investments..if he gained this wealth before or after he was elected to Congress…how a guy says he’w worth between $500,000 and $1.3 million and now he says he made a mistake and his net worth is between a million and $2.5 million?  If it walks like a duck…

Weather Bottom Line:  The initial front eased into the area on Friday night as expected.  In the afternoon, there was a localized cloud burst in Northeast Jefferson county and into Oldham County that supposedly brought up to 4 inches in a short time, but I can only find one rain gauge near prospect that registered over two inches.  Snow White called me to tell me that the sunflowers were getting all kinds of great rain yet it didn’t rain where I was downtown.  Curiously, when I came home, I saw the results of a heavy rain except in my rain gauge which was dry.  Hmmm..a stealth rain.  Anyway, the big front comes through today.  There may be enough residual moisture to kick off some showers but probably nothing signficant.  The real story will be the temperaturess.  Look for highs for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday in the low to mid 70’s.  Overnight lows will be in the 50’s with some people I betcha getting into the upper 40’s.  The warm up after that will not be quick but only back to the low 80’s by the end of the week.

Tropical Storm Danny Spaghetti Model, Satellite Image Reveal a Girly-Man
August 28, 2009

TS Danny Visible Image not much to look at with exposed center 19:45Z 08.28.09

TS Danny Visible Image not much to look at with exposed center 19:45Z 08.28.09

Danny Rainbow IR 1945Z 08.28.09

Danny Rainbow IR 1945Z 08.28.09

Tropical Storm Danny is a girly-man.  It has some pretty robust convection but its well east of the center.  By Friday afternoon the low level circulation was completely exposed and the hurricane hunter reported a central pressure at a pedestrian 1007 mb.  It’s also running out of time for development.  As a deep trof starts to invade the eastern two thirds of the nation,  southwesterly winds ahead of the trof will increase and end any chance for upper level support.  That upper trof that has been plaguing Danny from the beginning just never went away as the models had been thinking.  The storm spent most of the day drifing to the west, which the models also never figured out, but with all of the convection going on east, it may be trying to reform a center. By late in the day, it started a more northern drift.  Either way, the modeling data does not call for real significant increase in intensity as it moves up the Southeast and mid Atlantic coasts.  So, the National Hurricane Center isn’t even bothering to change the tropical storm watch for the outer banks of North Carolina to a warning.  If it reforms farther east, then there is almost no chance of it affecting the US.  But, the conventional models all still run it along the Carolina coast.  It quickly loses its tropical characteristics, which never really fully developed anyway.  But, in this case its a so what situation because the models want to run it along the Northeast Coast and have it deepen from its current 1007 mb down to about 994mb and then move it into Nova Scotia.  So, there could be some heavy rain, gusty winds and high seas…in some regards similar to Bill except the seas probably won’t be running as high. 

Atlantic View 20:45Z 08.28.09 Invest 94L Not Quite as Impressive as Prior Day

Atlantic View 20:45Z 08.28.09 Invest 94L Not Quite as Impressive as Prior Day

There is another tropical cyclone trying to get going way out about 300 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands. That one has some potential and its farther south than previous cyclones that have formed of late.  That would decrease the potential for it getting caught up in any unseasonal trofs that move into the Atlantic.  But, its way out there and there are lots of possibilities. At this point, I would almost hazard a suggestion that it has a better chance of adversely affecting the US than Danny…but it so far out that one can’t really say that so I won’t. 9 of  15 tropical cyclone models make it a Tropical Storm in 48 hours with 6 of those eventually making it a hurricane, two claiming Cat 2.  We’ll see. Man proposes, God disposes.

TS Danny Spagetti Models 18Z 082809

TS Danny Spagetti Models 18Z 082809

TS Danny Spaghetti Model Tracks 18Z 082809

TS Danny Spaghetti Model Tracks 18Z 082809

5pm TS Danny NHC Forecast Track 08.28.09

5pm TS Danny NHC Forecast Track 08.28.09

WTNT45 KNHC 282035
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

AFTER STALLING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON…THE CENTER OF DANNY IS
FINALLY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. DATA FROM AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT DANNY IS
STILL A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM…BASED ON A 33-KT OBSERVATION FROM
THE SFMR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM…AS THE INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE COULD SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. HOWEVER…BY 24 HOURS…DANNY WILL BE MOVING INTO A VERY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE…WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL SHOWING WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO 35 KT BY THAT TIME. BY 36
HOURS…DANNY WILL BE OVER SSTS OF NEAR 20C…AND INTERACTING WITH
THE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  MOST OF
THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AND PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SHOW THAT DANNY
WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL BY THAT TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF DANNY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

THE GUIDANCE WAS INITIALIZED WITH A LONG TERM MOTION OF 315/08…
AND REMAINS IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RAPID ACCELERATION OF DANNY
NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. IN FACT…THE MODEL SPREAD IS
SMALLER NOW THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLOWER
THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE SLOW
INITIAL MOTION. FROM 24 TO 36 HOURS…THE NEW FORECAST IS SHIFTED
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK…BUT DANNY IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND
APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA IN 36-48 HOURS.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE ONLY 34-KT WINDS ARE LOCATED
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE LACK OF WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
DANNY LESSEN THE THREAT FOR TROPICAL STORM WIND REACHING THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. HOWEVER…THE WATCH IS LEFT IN PLACE IN CASE
THE WIND FIELD BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF DANNY.
AS DANNY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL…ITS EXPANDING WIND FIELD MAY
IMPACT THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE
HANDLED WITH GALE WARNINGS AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS
OFFICES IN THAT REGION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/2100Z 30.4N  75.4W    35 KT
12HR VT     29/0600Z 32.7N  75.8W    40 KT
24HR VT     29/1800Z 37.3N  73.2W    40 KT
36HR VT     30/0600Z 41.9N  68.2W    40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     30/1800Z 46.5N  61.4W    40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     31/1800Z 50.5N  49.5W    40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT     01/1800Z 53.0N  35.0W    45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     02/1800Z 55.0N  22.0W    50 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Man Who First Found Oil…Texas Tea…Was no Jed Clampett
August 28, 2009

Jed Fared Better than Ed

Jed Fared Better than Ed

Drake Visits What Should Have Been

Drake (in top hat) Visits What Should Have Been His

On This Date In History: Edwin Laurentine Drake retired as a railroad conductor in 1858 due to a bad back. He lived at the Tontine Hotel in New Haven, Connecticut with his wife and child. Some retirement, huh? Well, that’s why a fellow boarder named James Townsend talked him into investing in the Seneca Oil Company. See, it was widely known that the Indians in Pennsylvania had used crude oil that bubbled to the surface as an ointment for aching joints. Townsend thought that the stuff could be used as a substitute for whale oil and as a lubricant. Trouble was, no one knew how to produce it in large quantities.

So, Townsend talked Drake into investing his life savings of $200, gave him a large stake of stock and promised him a salary of $1000 a year for expenses. Drake took him up on it and moved to Titusville, Pa. Well, Townsend and his partners took back their stock from Drake, but that didn’t stop him. After finding out that having men digging with picks and shovels didn’t work, he came up with a new idea. He turned to drilling. He hired Uncle Billy Smith, who was a blacksmith who had salt-boring experience. By 1859, the directors of the company, including Townsend, had lost interest but Drake persisted. They built a derrick and bought a small nautical engine. Sand and clay clogged their drill hole but they persisted. Drake had a brainstorm….he decided to use a pipe to form a shaft for the drill. On this date in 1859 Drake looked down the hole and saw something glistening. When he inquired as to what it was, Uncle Billy said, “it’s your fortune.”

Well, it would have been if he had patented his drilling apparatus and scheme. It would have been had he been able to hold on to his stock. Others rushed in and became overnight millionaires while Drake made a total of $16,000 over four years serving as an agent and justice of the peace. Then he lost it all on Wall Street. Later, he and his family were found living destitute and the state of Pennsylvania granted him a $1500 annual pension. After he died, a monument was erected in Titusville to the man who started the oil industry. That monument is about all there is to show for it.  This is a common tale. There are many stories of how the man who makes a fortune possible gets nothing.  That was certainly the case for the man who discovered gold in California, as well as other tales of yore found on these here pages.

Weather Bottom Line:  No real change in the general thinking.  A front is easing down our way.  We may see some scattered afternoon t’storms in the heating of the day.  This first front is slow to move through and the best chance for rain/t’storms will be in the evening and overnight.  The boundary is kinda stuck in the region for much of Saturday but the main cold front comes down and kicks out everything.  There may be a few showers or maybe even a t’storm on Saturday.  The most remarkable thing about this front is its vitatlity for this time of year.  Look for highs through the middle of the week to be in the mid 70’s…maybe even low 70’s for some folks, especially Sunday and Monday.  I still think that there may be some clouds on Sunday with a shortwave rotating around the base of the trof.

Telephone Development Aided by the Undertaker
August 27, 2009

Smart's Shoe Phone Never Really Took Off

Smart's Shoe Phone Never Really Took Off

On This Date In History:  We’ve come a long way with telephone technology in a relatively short period of time, but the shoe phone didn’t really catch on.  Nevertheless, the genesis of the modern telephone system has an unlikely twist.  Almon Brown Strowger was a late 19th Century undertaker in Kansas City. For some reason, his business was in decline. People were still dying but somehow he missed out on much of the action. Then one day, a good friend passed away. Either through sloppy work or skulduggery, the operator of the local phone exchange failed to notify him and his competitor got the work. Convinced that the operator was in cahoots with the guy across the street, Strowger set out to invent an automatic exchange so that people could contact him directly and avoid operators on the take. Up until the late 19th Century, if one wanted to call someone, they had to crank up the phone for power to talk to an operator. The caller would tell the operator to whom they wished to speak and the operator connected the call. Strowger eliminated that. After filing several patents, Strowger first introduced his Automatic Telephone Exchange in 1892 in La Porte, Indiana. By then he was out of the mortuary business and declared that the “telephone girl would have to go, but she would only be following in the footsteps of the messenger boy whose services were dispensed with by the invention of the telephone.” Strowger wasn’t finished.

 

Obnoxious Operator Ernestine

Obnoxious Operator Ernestine

In 1896, the Bell System, which until 1894 had a monopoly on all phone systems, came out with a battery at the central exchange that eliminated the need for at-home hand cranking. Around the same time, on this date in 1896, Strowger came out with the first rotary dial phone that was installed in the Milwaukee city hall. It didn’t have holes but instead had what amounted to the sprockets of a half exposed gear. More like a rotary disk. The photo to the above left is the 1897 version. Strowger went on to be a big competitor of the Bell System, until his patents expired in 1914. From that point, his company and Strowger disappeared from history. I suppose he took the money and ran…or rather died. Strowger passed away in 1902. No word on

Almon Brown Stowger

whether his former competitor in Kansas City got his final bit of business. But, without a competitor, the Bell System didn’t come out with a rotary phone until 1919 and it had the holes with the disc that went all the way around the dial.

Two things. First off, competition inspires invention…Bell had no more competition after Strowger’s death and so dragged its feet on developing a better phone. Second thing…don’t ever make the undertaker mad. His revenge can kill you.

Friday Evening, secondary Push still lagging behind

Friday Evening, secondary Push still lagging behind

Weather Bottom Line:  A strong cold front is on its way.  We may even get cooler than the last one with afternoon highs possibly only in the mid 70’s early next week…maybe even low 70’s for some.  The long wave trof is consistently showing up on the models but will be a bit slow to get here.  There is a boundary out to the west that will be sagging our way but really doesn’t get here until early Saturday or late Friday as it awaits for the big kick from the main trof digging down.  So, look for fairly humid conditions and seasonally hot temperatures for this afternoon and Friday.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see some scattered activity late Friday.  The front will slowly move through on Saturday so rain chances will be the highest on Friday night and Saturday with pops tapering off by late Saturday.  The real push of cooler air does not get here until Sunday.  I could forsee a number of clouds holding temperatures down on Sunday as a shortwave rotates around the base of the trof…kinda like last Saturday.  A light shower might show up here and there but it wouldn’t last.  Then it would be Monday that we really back down to the low to mid 70’s in spite of some sunshine.  Sunday may not get out of the 70’s either due to colder air filtering in and clouds.  The 850’s are showing up below 10 C.  Very odd for this time of year and the trof set up with the long wave pattern suggests that it may stick around for much of the week with a warm up not going on until the second half.  My sunflowers need water so I hope we can get some decent rain.  The SPC is not too enthused concerning severe weather as we just haven’t had time to destablize as per the latest data, but with afternoon heating, late t’storms Friday would not be surprising.

Tropical Storm Danny Satellite Images Show Better Organization-Spaghetti Model Persistent
August 27, 2009



Tropical Storm Danny 1415Z 08.27.09

Tropical Storm Danny 1415Z 08.27.09



TS Danny Spaghetti Model 12Z 08.27.09

TS Danny Spaghetti Model 12Z 08.27.09



TS Danny Spaghetti Model Intensity 12Z Thu

TS Danny Spaghetti Model Intensity 12Z Thu



NHC Fcst Track 11am Thursday

NHC Fcst Track 11am Thursday



Tropical Storm Danny Water Vapor 12Z 08.27.09

Tropical Storm Danny Water Vapor 12Z 08.27.09

Tropical Storm Danny continues to have problems as it is still sandwiched between upper level lows.  This has resulted in upper winds coming together which is the opposite of what you need for a hurricane to develop.  Consequently, it doesn’t look very good.  But, Dr. Jack Beven at the National Hurricane Center reports late this morning that the overall circulation is getting better looking.  But, I see, and he notes, that the convection and best stuff is generally disjointed to the north and northeast of the center of low level circulation.  Now, over the next day or so, the upper level lows will move out and an upper level high is expected to take its place over the top of Danny.  That is the chance that it needs to develop and become better organized. 




Tropical Storm Danny 14:45Z Dvorak 08.27.09

Tropical Storm Danny 14:45Z Dvorak 08.27.09

Now, the official forecast calls for Danny to start to move north and stay just off the east coast as it develops into a minimal hurricane.  However, previously there was only one model that had the storm scraping the US coast.  Now there are three.  The Canadian model has been the most consistent in this regard.  The other two are the US Navy NOGAPS and the more conventional NAM.  The tropical models do not suggest this.  But, I am wondering if, since the storm has not truly been tropical in nature, if the non-tropical storms initially have a better handle on the system.  Also, the storm keeps on either reforming or drifting farther west than what the tropical models have been calling for.  This is why I am still of the mind that the storm may in fact at least partially move along the Carolina coast.  On the other hand, if this guy lolligags out in the ocean much longer, another big, unseasonable trof like the one that caught Bill will be digging into the Ohio Valley and will pick it up before it ever gets to the coast.  There is a consensus among the models that the storm will deepen as it moves northward and gets even with the middle of the Atlantic coast.   They also point toward an impact on Nova Scotia.  However, there are some problems  with  the developmental scenario brought forth by the models that conflict with conventional wisdom as Dr. Beven points out at the bottom of the post.




Canadian Model 996 mb Low near Hattaras valid Friday Evening derived 00Z Thu

Canadian Model 996 mb Low near Hattaras valid Friday Evening derived 00Z Thu



Danny Visible Satellite Image 1445Z 08.27.09

Danny Visible Satellite Image 1445Z 08.27.09

WTNT45 KNHC 271449
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009


DANNY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOOKS BETTER DEFINED THAN IT DID YESTERDAY…
AND THE CONVECTION IS CLOSER TO THE CENTER.  THAT BEING SAID…THE
CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED…THE CONVECTION HAS MORE OF A LINEAR
CHARACTER THAN THE CURVED BANDS CHARACTERISTIC OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE…AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT PENDING THE NEXT
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION AT 18Z…ALTHOUGH RECENT
QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.


THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE WESTWARD FOR
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
ACTUAL MOTION OF DANNY OR A SHORT-TERM TREND.  SO…THE INITIAL
MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/11.  DESPITE THE PROBLEMATIC INITIAL
MOTION…THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT
DANNY SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HR IN ADVANCE OF A
COMPLEX DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
AFTER THAT…THE STORM SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERLIES…PASSING NEAR OR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE
NAM…NOGAPS…AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE… CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO PASS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN OVER NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF ARE
ON THE RIGHT SIDE…CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO STAY OFFSHORE UNTIL
IT REACHES NOVA SCOTIA.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR BASED ON THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION…AND IT LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.  WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT CURRENTLY SHOW DANNY
MAKING LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES…ADDITIONAL MOTION TO THE
LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE U. S.
EASTERN SEABOARD.


DANNY IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO BE
REPLACED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24-30 HR…
AND IF THIS VERIFIES IT WILL GIVE DANNY ITS BEST CHANCE TO
STRENGTHEN.  BASED ON THIS…THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DANNY
TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE 24-48 HR PERIOD…WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
65 KT.  THE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT DANNY SHOULD START LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND INTENSITY AFTER 48 HR AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN
A STRONG BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT.  OVERALL…THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS…WITH THE PEAK
INTENSITY BELOW THAT OF THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INITIAL      27/1500Z 27.5N  73.1W    50 KT
12HR VT     28/0000Z 28.7N  73.9W    50 KT
24HR VT     28/1200Z 30.3N  74.5W    55 KT
36HR VT     29/0000Z 33.2N  74.3W    60 KT
48HR VT     29/1200Z 36.9N  72.4W    65 KT
72HR VT     30/1200Z 45.0N  64.5W    60 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT     31/1200Z 50.0N  53.0W    45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     01/1200Z 52.5N  37.0W    30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Yugo, Dan Quayle Went the Way of the Roosevelt Simplified Spelling Guidelines
August 26, 2009

Danny is looking for an "e"

Danny is looking for an "e"

Shooting Holes In The DictionaryOn This Date In History: On this date in 1906, President Teddy Roosevelt made his final plans for his effort to be Vice-President Dan Quayle about 90 years before there was a Vice-President Dan Quayle. If you recall, on June 15, 1992 then Vice-President Dan Quayle went to an elementary school in Trenton, New Jersey. He decided to help a kid with his spelling and added an “e” to the end of the word, potato. That was effectively the end of Quayle’s political career and was no help in President Bush’s re-election bid. Well, Theodore Roosevelt got almost as much of a backlash, but managed to hold his seat in the White House.

In the early 20th Century, Philanthropist Andrew Carnegie funded an organization that crusaded for a more simplified spelling system. They advocated dismissing the “u” in behaviour and honour. To that end, they were successful, unless you live in Europe. They failed in their effort to convert “kissed” to “kist” and “though” to “tho”. There are many examples of success and failure but the point is, Teddy liked the concept. So, he ordered the public printer to change the spelling of 300 words to adhere to the code of the Simplified Spelling Board guidelines.

The response was swift, broad and wicked. One columnist wrote that “nuthing escapes Mr. Rucevelt. No subject is tu hi fr him to takl, no tu lo for him tu notis.” Congress wasn’t too certain that presidential powers extended to the spelling book and ordered the printer to pay no attention to the man with the big stick in the bully pulpit. So great was the public response, Mr. Roosevelt withdrew the order but later wrote that he glad “did the thing anyhow.”

Make sure you learn to spell properly. Dan Quayle never won another election and neither did Theodore Roosevelt.

Here is a list of all of the changes that President Roosevelt wanted to change…

WALL STREET JOURNAL-Rozevult’s List

 

Could the Yugo beat Herbie the Love Bug?

Could the Yugo beat Herbie the Love Bug?

 

You GO!  Remember the Yugo?  It was a small, inexpensive car from Yugoslavia that went on the market in the USA on this date in 1985.  There were just 90 Yugo dealerships in America and the minute the automobile’s availability was announced, people had come in droves to put down a deposit on the $3990 car before they even saw it.   It was thousands less than any other car offered in America and by the time 1500 had arrived from Yugoslavia, there were orders for over 6500 waiting.  Though sales weren’t as high as expected for inaugural year, second year sales rose. 

Now, the Yugo was small but had lots of standard features.   Standard equipment included fabric upholstery, full carpeting, reclining front seats, folding rear seat, rear window wiper/washer, opening rear quarter windows, rear window electric defroster, low fuel warning light, cigarette lighter, locking gas cap, and a full size spare tire. There were few options such as air conditioning, stereos, floor mats, wheel covers, and roof racks.  I can tell you two things that shouldn’t be an option in the United States is air-conditioning and a stereo.

Check Out the Monster Yugo!

Check Out the Monster Yugo!

But, that wasn’t the only problem.  Seems that owners complained of mechanical problems including premature engine failure, bad brakes, poor shifter and transmission, and faulty electrical systems, and terrible dealer service.   Then there was the safety issue.  The insurance industry faulted the cars crash worthiness.  That last one is kinda stupid to me because anyone buying such a tiny cars are not buying it for safety.  Well, things didnt go so well and in 1989, they stopped importing Yugos to the US and Yugo America went bankrupt. But, it came back for a last hurrah in 1990 when new models came to US shores, but they didn’t last with the 1991 model year being the last for Yugo in the US.

http://videos.streetfire.net/video/History-of-YUGO-world-car_444615.htm

Poor Little Car-Video Abuse

The company that made (makes) the Yugo is Zasatava.  If it weren’t for bad luck, they’d have none at all.  The plant at which they made Yugos was bombed by the US and its allies in the Kosovo war…seems it  was determined that it was making strategic arms.  But, they haven’t given up. In spite of crappy US exposure the first time around and in spite of not so crappy US bombs falling on the factory, Zasatava is at it again with the Yugo and it may try the US market again.  That is the history of Yugo.  Many people in the US have a different individual history of their Yugo.  Someone from Europe decided to show their video history of their Yugo..poor little car.

Weather Bottom Line: Well, the AC came back on Wednesday afternoon.  A bit too humid for me and the fat cats.  I saved some money for 3 days though.  There is a strong front that will come down, just like last weekend.  It will take us back to conditions more reminiscent of October or late September than late August.  It is also going to steer Tropical Storm..and probably Hurricane…Danny up the east coast..just like Bill except that it will probably be closer to the coast, even along part of the coast, than Bill was.  Not a slam dunk but we should get rain late Thursday or early Friday.  Not likely at this point but if we get destablized then we may get some strong storms but at this point, it does not appear that the atmosphere will get drunk..er…loaded up for that.

Tropical Storm Danny Spaghetti Model, Discussion-East Coast, Halifax Wary
August 26, 2009

Tropical Storm Danny 1845Z 08.25.09

Tropical Storm Danny 9:18:45Z 08.26.09

Tropical Storm Danny NHC forecast Track 11am 08.26.09

Tropical Storm Danny NHC forecast Track 11am 08.26.09

For a more recent update on Tropical Storm Danny, CLICK HERE

As hinted in a previous post, Invest 92L has indeed become Tropical Storm Danny.  The initial model runs are still holding pretty much on line.   That is some want to take it as a tropical storm or even a weak hurricane into North Carolina and then along the US coast with some deepening to as low as 985 mb somewhere between Washington DC and New York City.  Others want to have the storm brush the Carolina coast and hug the East Coast of the US and deepen before moving just east of Halifax, Nova Scotia.  Still others want to keep the storm offshore altogether before it runs into Nova Scotia.  Andrea in Halifax…all the models have it affecting you in some manner…But…

Danny Water Vapor 9:17:45Z 08.26.09

Danny Water Vapor 9:17:45Z 08.26.09

There is some consensus as to the notion that another big fat trof digs down into the Ohio Valley by the end of the week.  That is pretty much a very good bet.  That will turn the storm north as the Atlantic ridge just hasn’t had enough time to broaden westward again following the last big trof that dug down and turned Bill.  But, this guy is still a bit sandwiched between a pair of upper lows.  That is lousy for development.  The morning water vapor image sucks.  The Dvorak image is a little better.  Typically, an under developed system may not always follow the flow as decisively as a fully developed storm.  This guy is still gaining tropical characteristics but does have a developing low level circulation.  So, this guy may have more of a westward component initially. than a fully developed storm would.  It will have an opportunity to develop.  Mostl likely it only gets to Cat 1 status because as the trof quickly approaches, it will get into an increasing flow of southwesterly winds ahead of the trof. That will accelerate it northward and eventually north north eastward. It should also mess up any upper level support that it can get.  So, while some models want to make it get stronger than Cat 1, the good environment for that to happen probably won’t be around long enough. 

Tropical Storm Danny Dvorak Image 9:18:45Z 08.26.09

Tropical Storm Danny Dvorak Image 9:18:45Z 08.26.09

Bottom line is that Danny is here.  There is a good chance that it will become a hurricane.  There is a pretty fair chance that it will get deeper as it moves up the east coast.  There is a good chance that it will hit Nova Scotia, perhaps with a greater impact than Bill had.  There is a fair chance that at least the fringes will affect the east coast from the South Carolina/North Carolina border northward and there is something approaching a fair chance that there is a landfall in the US for a time from say the SC/NC border to Wilmington and then perhaps stay inland through Virginia before it re-emerges just offshore.  Lot of variables at this time. 

Tropical Storm Danny Spaghetti Model 12Z 08.26.09

Tropical Storm Danny Spaghetti Model 12Z 08.26.09

Tropical Storm Danny Spaghetti Intensity Model 12Z 08.26.09

Tropical Storm Danny Spaghetti Intensity Model 12Z 08.26.09

Canadian Model Fri Eve-Hurricane Danny Near NC Outer Banks

Canadian Model Fri Eve-Hurricane Danny Near NC Outer Banks

TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION…
WITH REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATING THE
SYSTEM WAS BEST DEVELOPED BELOW 12000 FT.  QUIKSCAT DATA AND A FEW
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SHOW
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER…WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.
THE STORM HAS BEEN TANGLED UP WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FOR THE PAST
24 HR…AND THE STRUCTURE AS MUCH RESEMBLES A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER…CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSES FROM
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUGGEST THAT DANNY IS MARGINALLY MORE
TROPICAL THAN SUBTROPICAL…HENCE THE DESIGNATION OF TROPICAL
STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/16.  DANNY IS ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA AND
SOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTER EAST OF BERMUDA.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER DANNY GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH
DECELERATION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT…THE LARGE SCALE
MODELS AGREE THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES…WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
MOVING EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE
DANNY TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES.
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE SCENARIO…THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO MAKE IT UNCERTAIN WHAT LAND AREA DANNY MAY
AFFECT.  THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST DANNY TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 72 HR AND MOVE UP THE
U. S. EASTERN SEABOARD…WHILE THE GFS…HWRF… AND GFDL SHOW A
MORE EASTERLY TRACK THAT KEEPS DANNY OFFSHORE UNTIL IT REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE EXTREMES AND IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE U. S. EAST COAST…AND
ANY DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK COULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN WHAT
AREAS GET IMPACTED BY DANNY.  THEREFORE…IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS NORTH AND SOUTH OF DANNY CONNECTED BY A CYCLONIC
SHEAR AXIS.  THIS IS NOT A IDEAL PATTERN FOR STRENGTHENING…AND
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE 24-36 HR FOR THE
ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.  BASED ON THIS AND THE
CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM…THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 36 HR.  IT THEN SHOWS A FASTER
STRENGTHENING FROM 36-48 HR AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
AFTER 48 HR…STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASED
SHEAR AND THE BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR DANNY TO REACH 65 KT IN 72 HR…THEN BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  HOWEVER…IT IS WEAKER
THAN THE FORECASTS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/1500Z 24.9N  70.3W    40 KT
12HR VT     27/0000Z 25.8N  72.0W    40 KT
24HR VT     27/1200Z 26.8N  73.6W    45 KT
36HR VT     28/0000Z 28.1N  74.5W    50 KT
48HR VT     28/1200Z 30.1N  75.2W    60 KT
72HR VT     29/1200Z 36.0N  73.5W    65 KT
96HR VT     30/1200Z 45.0N  67.0W    65 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     31/1200Z 52.0N  53.0W    60 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Wall Street Journal: Crawfish Poaching On Law Enforcement Table! Tropics: Danny Birthing?
August 25, 2009

You Won't Get Me Without a Fight!

You Won't Get Me Without a Fight!

Cat a Crawfish Poacher?

Cat a Crawfish Poacher?

The Wall Street Journal is famous for bringing the business news of the day.  Now, we typically think of that as being financial stuff like stocks and bonds.  The journal though covers business in general and there is a certain business that is much bigger than you might think that is under a world wide threat from thieves.  The journal calls it crayfish, I but in Louisiana, which is the largest producer of the crustacean in the nation, they say crawfish.  When we say production, we don’t mean they run around and hunt the little critters down but instead there are giant farms, and there is a difference between wild crawfish and farm raised crawfish.  In the 2007-2008 season, 1300 crawfish farms in Louisiana produced  109 million pounds of mudbugs with 280 licensed crawfisherman brought in just 1.3 million pounds of crawfish.  In 2007, wild and farm raised catfish in Louisiana produced some $94 million in revenue.  Whether farmer or fishermen, the little guys generally only net about a dollar a pound so you need to have a lot to make any money.

Tasmanian Giant Freshwater Crawfish

Tasmanian Giant Freshwater Crawfish

But, its not just Louisiana.  There are crawfish farming operations in many other places and they all have a common problem.  Whether it be the bayous of Louisiana, farms in California or down under in Australia, crawfish poaching is becoming a big problem.  The Louisiana legislature passed laws that make it a felony with jail time of up to 10 years for nabbing someone elses crawfish.  The story in the Wall Street Journal illustrates a situation in which an armed guard fired his weapon at people who were just wandering by a crawfish farm and were simply suspected of being poachers.  In Australia, they are investigating the infiltration of organized crime into the business of stealing your everyday crawfish as well as a certain variety that grows to giant proportions and is known as a yabby. The Tasmanian Giant Freshwater Crawfish can be as large as 3 feet!

Shellfish stealing has long been a problem since the crop might sit in a trap for an extended period, making it an easy target for theives.  Lobster fisherman in Maine have long been armed, dangerous and PO’d at would be thieves.  One guy in San Diego got convicted of smuggling Lobsters in his pants.  OUCH!  But in the shellfish world, crawfish have been overlooked but not any more.  With global seafood prices on the rise, crawfish have been seen as an alternative and their value is also increasing.  So, if you come upon a friendly crawfish, better leave him alone, he may be protected by a gentleman with a very large gun who won’t be afraid to use it.

Invest92L 1345Z 08.25.09

Invest92L 1345Z 08.25.09

Invest 92L Spaghetti Model 12Z 08.25.09

Invest 92L Spaghetti Model 12Z 08.25.09

Invest 92L Spaghetti Intensity Model 12Z 08.25.09

Invest 92L Spaghetti Intensity Model 12Z 08.25.09

Invest 92L Rainbow IR Satellite

Invest 92L Rainbow IR Satellite

Invest 92L is an area of low pressure that has been interacting with an upper low east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.  Typically, an upper low may create an interesting area of clouds and storms on the satellite for an untrained eye.  But, upper lows are no good for tropical development.  In this case, the upper low is expected to either fall apart or move along, leaving behind the robust surface tropical wave.  The NHC expects that to happen and put the system in an area that is conducive for development.  They have put a high probability of that happening. If it becomes a named storm, it would be Danny.  The general consensus with the modeling data is that the ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic that backed off and allowed Hurricane Bill to turn north into the Atlantic will not build a whole lot back west.  And there is another oddball trof that is progged to dig through the Ohio Valley toward the Gulf Coast.  That  will pick up the storm and turn it north.  But, there is an inconsistency of the route.  The Canadian model insists on creating a hurricane and sending into North Carolina and up the East Coast. Other models do not develop the storm much beyond a depression, but that may be due to initiation issues than anything else.  Several models have it running a route closer to the US coast but similar to Bill while others have it hug the northeast coast.  My guess is that this will probably develop to some degree and probably affect the US coast.

Weather Bottom Line:  We still benefit from the previous front and trof with cool nights and warm, but relatively dry afternoons.  By the end of the week, rain chances may increase with the approach of the aforementioned frontal system but I suspect that moisture will be so limited that substantial rain will be difficult.