The forecast was right on target for most of the area on Saturday…unless you live in the city. The clouds were in the area for the morning and broke up just about everywhere except Louisville. Consequently, much of the outlying area made it up to the lower 80’s while the city only struggled to the mid 70’s. Snow White and I went sculling but as we made our way down the creek to the Ohio River, we noticed it was particularly rough with a wave crashing over me like I was the SS Poseiden. So, we turned and went back up the creek. Behind us we heard the roar of engines and saw about 8 big power boats go racing by. Had we gone upstream I probably would have been chopped in half or swamped by those big ole boats you used to see at the beginning of Miami Vice. Anyway, we turned around and will have the chance to enjoy plenty of sunshine on Sunday as the remnant of Invest 94 moves up the spine of the Appalacians. A weak front approaches on Monday but the real story is another front on Tuesday. It may bring a few largely insignificant showers on Monday night or Tuesday morning but more significantly will provide some below seasonal average Canadian Air to start off October.
So far, the tropical cyclone known as Kyle is behaving quite well once it finally
got off the snide and got out of the Dominican Republic. It became a hurricane late Saturday afternoon as it moved NE of an area of low pressure in the Appalacians (Invest 94) into a window of more favorable winds aloft. It developed a concentric center of storms around the main circulation and pressures dropped. It will continue to move generally north at some 25-35 mph which puts it just east of Maine in New Brunswick by Sunday evening. The forecast track graphic is from the US Navy Naval Research Lab as it has a bit more detail than the NHC version…but its based on the NHC forecast. It’s moving so fast that there is not a lot of things that can happen to change the general track. By that time, it’s forecast to have run into some colder air as well as some strong
westerlies that will mess it up. But so what, they’ll have near hurricane conditions around an area that most people don’t associate with tropical weather but they should. Having a hurricane go that far north is not unprecedented by any stretch and I suggest you totally discount anyone, regardless of credibility, who claims that it is evidence of Global Warming. I haven’t heard it yet but I would not be surprised if someone doesn’t try to make that claim. Look to the bottom of the post for the National Hurricane Center Hurricane Kyle Forecast Discussion and then to the marine forecast for off the Massachusetts Coast.
On This Date in History: Have you ever seen one of those Star Trek episodes that deals with time travel? In one Kirk is in the 1920’s and if he knows a woman (Joan Collins) will be killed in a car accident and he has the ability to save her life. But Spock tells him that if he does save her, then all of history will be changed and that even the world that they know in the 23rd century would be altered, perhaps negavtively. So, Kirk as usual lets his loins do the thinking and he tries to save her even though it means the end to humanity as he knows it. But Bones comes to the rescue and keeps Kirk from saving the woman. Too bad Bones wasn’t around in 1918.
British Private Henry Tandey was serving in the 5th Duke of Wellington Regiment near the French village of Marcoing. On this date in 1918, toward the end of a battle, the Germans were in retreat and a wounded German soldier came into his line of fire. Tandey later said he just couldn’t bring himself to shoot a wounded man. The German soldier nodded in thanks for Tandey’s kindness and disappeared. A photograph that appeared in London newspapers of Tandey carrying a wounded soldier at the the First Battle of Ypres in 1914 was later put on canvas by Italian artist Fortunino Matania that glorified the Allied war effort. Move ahead a couple of decades.
In 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain traveled to Germany to meet with German Chancellor Adolph Hitler as part of his effort to prevent another war. Hitler took Chamberlain to his country retreat in Bavaria where he showed the British Prime Minister a copy of the painting by Matania. Now, it was odd that Hitler would have such a painting because his motivation for building the Nazi party and gaining control of Germany was due to the humiliating defeat and armistice following World War I. Some evidence suggests that Hitler did indeed have the copy of the painting as early as 1937. Why would he have a painting that depicted the defeat over Germany? When Hitler showed the painting to Chamberlain, he said, “That’s the man who nearly shot me.”
Now, this tale cannot be totally verified and is generally chalked up as legend. There is no way to actually prove that the man whose life Tandey spared in an act of compassion was really Hitler. But, I think its safe to say that Hitler thought it was the case. And if it was so, then think of how many millions of lives might have been saved and how history may have been altered if the man who confronted the young German soldier on the battlefield had been a mean, hard-ass soldier instead of one of humanity and compassion. Had Hitler not lived, then there not only may not have been World War II, but also the rise of the Soviet Union may not have come about and then no Cold War. Would the atomic bomb have become a reality? Would the post war economic boom in the US taken place? With no Soviet Union, then perhaps there would have been no drive to put a man on the moon. Who knows. It’s a kinda fun exercise to think of such things but largely not relevant and an exercise in futility. It’s best to look forward because in our individual lives and our large-scale collective lives, we live in the world in which we are given left to play the hand which we are dealt. Here is a full rendition of the story.
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008
KYLE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A VERY ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN FOR A
HURRICANE. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION…DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES
DECREASED A LITTLE…HOWEVER…THE CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND THE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS…AND KYLE
REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
SAMPLING THE STORM AROUND 0600 UTC.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE VERY STRONG…BUT DIVERGENT FLOW
OVER THE HURRICANE. IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AND KYLE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
THEREFORE…THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. KYLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER
SSTS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM WITHIN 24 HOURS…SO THE NEW FORECAST
NOW SHOWS SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO KYLE REACHING THE COAST. THIS
FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS KYLE AS A HURRICANE
FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS…THEN SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
HOWEVER…ONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THERE IS LITTLE PRACTICAL
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65 KT HURRICANE.
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON AFTER REACHING
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/20 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE
TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGE A LITTLE EASTWARD…BUT IT REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS…THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AS KYLE
INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS
DECELERATION DURING THAT TIME…BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT KYLE WILL
BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0300Z 36.2N 69.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 39.5N 68.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 43.7N 67.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 47.2N 65.1W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT 30/0000Z 49.2N 64.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 01/0000Z 51.0N 63.0W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 02/0000Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
1143 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT
REST OF TONIGHT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE WINDS
10 TO 15 KT. SEAS AROUND 7 FT. SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG. VSBY 1 TO
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. E WINDS 30 TO 35 KT…
BECOMING N 35 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 50 KT. SEAS
AROUND 10 FT…BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S AND E OF
NANTUCKET…SEAS AROUND 14 FT… BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON…THEN SHOWERS LIKELY
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. VSBY
1 TO 3 NM UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NW WINDS 25 TO
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT…BECOMING W 15 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS AROUND 13 FT… SUBSIDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.