Yao Ming Career in Jeopardy; Tightrope Across Niagara and Articles of War June 30, 2009

Look at this guy tightrope across Niagara Falls.

Yao's towering career in Jeopardy?

CLICK HERE for Yao Ming baby announcement!

Yao Ming is perhaps the NBA’s greatest marketing tool in the world.  Every time he plays, hundreds of millions of Chinese tune in to watch the Houston Rockets.  The Rockets figured out that marketing power initially when, after dawning a new logo and uniform just a few years prior to his addition to the franchise, they quickly revamped their look again by enhancing their uniform to feature prominently the color red that is close to that used in the Chinese flag.  The lettering also took on a look similar to what one might find at the Asian section of an amusement park.   Yao has done pretty well in the NBA but has had troubles with injuries.  In the second round of the playoffs, he reinjured a foot that had been surgically repaird for fractures.  Now it seems that the foot is not healing and, like Bill Walton, Yao’s  foot problems may limit the remainder of his career.  Houston has a problem.

The year was 1859 and, on this date in history, Emile Blondin took to the rope up to 270 feet above Niagara and for 1100 feet walked across from one side to the other. His real name was Jean-Francois Gravelet and he was born in France. He saw his first tightrope act in France at the age of 5. He supposedly came right home and set up a rope with some chairs and began practicing. His father was a gymnast and helped him. After just 6 months, he was performing. Somehow he became an orphan and so he ran and joined the circus at age 9. One source I have found says that 5,000 people watched him do this first stunt on a two inch wide rope and another claims 100,000 on a 3 inch rope. So, who knows? A lot of locals didn’t want him to do the stunt because they thought it would turn the lovely falls into the backdrop for a circus type atmosphere. Much to their chagrin, the first walk was to successful, Blondin did it many more times with variations.

Blondin's Fame was Enough for its use in parody of James Buchanan's failed efforts prior to the Civl War

He did it blindfolded, with a man on his back, in a gorilla suit while pushing a wheelbarrow and he even wowed the crowds by taking photos of them while on the rope, which I am trying to fathom giving the size of photographic equipment in the 19th century…I’m not sure if I’m buyin’ that. It is also said that he cooked an omelet over the falls. Other sources confirm this and one even says that he crossed Niagara on stilts! I’m tryin to figure those two out too. In all, he crossed Niagara 16 times and performed other walks all around the world. His final performance was at age 68. He died at 73 a very wealthy man. Source suggest that he made $500 a performance but he had to have made more than that at the end of his career as his earnings for his final two years was about $400,000. In 2007, dollars, that would be $9.12 million.

So, why in the world would anyone want to do such a silly thing? I mean…what does it prove? What does it say about you? Well, apparently someone thought it was worth while because the practice goes all the way back to the ancient Greeks. If you have some time, check out this website…The Blondin Memorial Trust.

Blondin Memorial Trust History of Tightrope

 

Brits communicated with America through papers such as PA Evening Post on May 13, 1775

Beginnings of Independence:

We celebrate the signing of the Declaration of Independence on July 4. Everyone knows it was in 1776. But, on this date in 1775 the seeds for separation were sown when the Continental Congress adopted the Articles of War. Its rather interesting because the Congress directed Thomas Jefferson to omit any criticism of King George. Instead, Jefferson referred to the colonists as “his Majesty’s most faithful subjects in these Colonies” and laid blame for their actions at the feet of parliament. My guess is that this goes back to the tradition of protest.

See, for centuries, the peasants in Europe were not able to communicate directly with the King. The King’s men did his bidding and often did things that upset the citizenry. So, they would protest with the idea that “if only the king knew…he’d stop this!” so they protested in an effort to gain the King’s attention to their plight expecting that the King would deal with the evil doers and right the wrongs. So, I suspect this was Congress putting the King on notice that their grievances were not against him directly, hoping that by declaring they had not personal beef with him, that the King would address their grievances and all would be well in Colonial America.

But, alas, that did no good because as was often the case, the King’s men were doing exactly what the King wanted. It was never very likely that the King’s men or the Parliament would do any free-lancing and act beyond the King’s wishes. After a year, that became apparent to the colonists and a year later, Jefferson penned the Declaration of Independence and laid the blame squarely at the King’s feet. From that point forth, there was no turning back and for the leaders of the Revolution, mainly the colonies’ elites, literally were living the motto “give me liberty or give me death” as the signers of the Declaration had signed their own death warrants had the efforts failed. After all, it’s one thing to dog Parliament….it’s quite another to trash the King.

Weather Bottom Line:  This is how averages comes about.  Last week, we had highs in the 90’s.  We started the week with a high in the mid to upper 80’s on Monday but it was relatively dry.  A second push of drier air came through late Monday, as expected, and now some folks may struggle to the 80’s today.  We move back to the upper 80’s toward the end of the week but until then we’ll have cool nights as humidity levels remain in check.  We may start to see a few pop up afternoon storms by late in the week.  A front will probably hold off though until after the Fourth of July.

Demerol, Michael Jackson & Dr. Conrad Murray-A Young Woman and Fatty Arbuckle June 29, 2009

The Killer?

Much of the speculation making the rounds regarding the death of Michael Jackson involve Demerol and Dr. Conrad Murray. Gossip pages are running amuck.  TMZ cites a Jackson family member as a source, saying that Jackson had a daily demerol shot and had one just prior to his death.  Even some mainstream press organizations are jumping on board.   However, the lawyer for Jackson physician/cardiologist Dr Conrad Murray says his client never gave prescriptions or injections of demerol or oxycontin.  It’s all speculation but there must be some reason that the Jackson family wants a second autopsy. 

I’ve had demerol before, after shoulder surgery.  I could have an injection every 3 hours.  I could set my watch by it.  From the time of the injection, I became very sleepy and quickly was snoozing.  Every time I awoke, it was exactly 3 hours and 1 minute from the time of the injection.  It’s powerful.  Now, I know of someone who suffered from migraine headaches.  Doctors prescribed demerol.  I’ve since found studies that say its not the proper solution due to the high risk of addiction and long term toxicity.  Death happened almost instantaneously.  The amount of demerol found in the system was theraputic but there was a huge toxic level in the liver.  The lab results took a long time.  If the cause of death of Michael Jackson is demorol, my limited experience would say that its from long term use, not a single lethal injection.  If a layman like me is aware of this risk, then one would think a physician would also be aware of such a risk.

On This Date in History:  When anything happens involving a big celebrity like Michael Jackson, the public can’t get enough.  This has been true for as long as there have been performing celebrities in America.  When things went well for actor/director Fatty Arbuckle, they still went bad.  He was a big star.  So, big that he signed a 3 year contract with Warner Brothers for a million dollars in 1921.  Really huge money in those days.  When he signed the deal, he had a party. At that party, a young starlet was found drunk and bleeding in Arbuckle’s room.  He was accused of rape and murder after the woman died of a punctured bladder 3 days later. It was Hollywood’s big scandals and William Randolph Hearst made it into a media circus.  Hearst didn’t care about the facts, he was in the business of selling papers and he made it into one of the first trials “of the century.”  He is quoted as saying that the scandal “sold more newspapers than any event since the sinking of the Lusitania.” 

Mugshot of Fatty

The judge found no evidence of rape but determined that Arbuckle could be tried for manslaughter.  In fact, the whole case isn’t nearly as cut and dried as I had been led to believe.  There are numerous instances of bribes by the prosecutor, false testimony and doctored evidence.  Twice juries were hung 10-2 in favor of Arbuckle with some interesting circumstances. The third trial ended in acquittal but, the prosecutor and newspapers tried Arbuckle in public with wild, unsubstantiated salacious charges and false accusations.  The main witness wasn’t allowed to testify because she was so unreliable.  During the 3rd trial she didn’t even show up as she had been found to be planning to extort money from Arbuckle from the night of the party and besides that, she was too busy on the lecture circuit spreading her tales.  They were inadmissible and unfounded in court but good enough for the stage. 

Women Couldn't keep their hands off Fatty

Though acquitted, Arbuckle’s movies were banned in the US for something that he may not have even done.  On this date in 1933 he was signed by Warner Brothers to make a feature length film.  Perhaps it was too much for the not-so-slender Fatty.  That night he had a heart attack and died. 

Maybe he would have been better off not signing contracts with the Warner Brothers.

Weather Bottom Line:  After a week of August-Like conditions we get a nice break.  We’ve also had a lot of rain.  June official numbers come in at 9.22″ which is less than an inch shy of the all-time June record of 10.11″ set back in 1960.  Wonder if there was a remnant of a tropical cyclone back then.  This year, that was not the case, just a hot and humid pattern that lent itself to storm activity.  That pattern has shifted with a big trof setting up in the east and a semi-staitionary low in the Great Lakes.  That will put us in a northwest flow which is tough to get much rain out of.  It also will drag down dry air.  Look for lows this week in the low 60’s with some folks in the upper 50’s on Tuesday morning after a reinforcing shot of dry air filters through following a cold front quietly sneaking through Monday evening.  The models want to toss out a few showers from time to time during the week but I find that a tough solution considering the relatively dry air.  High temperatures will only be in the low 80’s.  I suppose if we were to get some isolated activity popping up, the best chances wouldn’t get started until late in the week as we warm somewhat and a front to our south tries to move northward a bit.  That would be ahead of the next system that will get ejected eastward across the plains and increase storm chances on Sunday.  Right now, the 4th of July looks pretty good.  Invest 93L is dead in the tropics.

Billy Mays is No Longer Here June 28, 2009

I remember when I first saw an Oxyclean commercial and the guy saying “Billy Mays here…” and my thinking, “who is Billy Mays?”  Over time, I figured out how smart that was because as he continued to pitch products, that familiar opening line somehow gave credibility even though the question remained, who is Billy Mays?  He’s featured on a site “as seen on tv.”  But alas, while he became famous for his commercials, even showing up on ESPN, Billy Mays has died.  The reports have come from the Chicago Tribune, AP via Yahoo and Fox News   While the news about his death is rather thin and that he wasn’t a huge celebrity, strangely, he will be missed.  He was on the Tonight Show in April and even had a fan site called “Billy Mays Rules.”    Just another reminder to take all life has to offer when you can.  Don’t waste it.

Peace That Brought War; 6 Flags Decapitation & other Accidents; Tropical Storm In Gulf? June 28, 2009

Keynes Had it Going

On This Date in History:

The photo above is typically called “The Big Four.” It may be better called “The Big Dummies.” If you don’t know which one is President Woodrow Wilson, then shame on you. The guy with the big moustache is French President Georges Clemenceau. The one whose face you cannot see if British Prime Minister David Lloyd George who is talking to Italy’s Vittorio Orlando. Wilson had his 14 points at the end of World War I. This was his outline of what to acheive in a peace treaty. But Clemenceau wanted big reparations against Germany and make Germany the scaepgoat for the war. They ended up with something closer to what Clemenceau wanted. On June 5, 1919 British Economist John Maynard Keynes resigned his position at the Paris Peace Conference representing the British Treasury. He said that the harsh terms of the treaty would result in collapse of Germany, a revolution and followed by a later war involving Germany that would destroy that “civilization and progress of our generation.” He later wrote a book about it.

The “Big Four” went ahead and forced Germany to sign the Treaty of Versailles on this date in 1919.

Keynes’ forecast was right on target for most historians agree, the seeds of World War II that destroyed much of Europe, parts of the Middle East and parts of Asia were sewn on this very date in the form of a “Peace Treaty.” It was perhaps better called a declaration of a future war. Keynes went on to live with a stellar reputation and continue his claim that the idealistic President Wilson was “the greatest fraud on earth.” Let us hope that should we get another idealistic president that future events would not necessitate the same analysis.

An interesting part of this is that Wilson did not include anyone from the Senate in his negotiations. This kinda po’d the Senate who had to ratify the treaty.   Particularly incensed was Sen. Henry Cabot Lodge.  A version of the treaty was eventually voted on but there were lots of amendments attached.  No matter, for the first time in US history, a peace treaty was rejected by the US Senate.  So, when reading history one can’t blame the Congress for the failure of the Treaty of Versailles.  Like Keynes, and not like Wilson and the other 3 leaders,  Congress actually was right about something.

This Part of Batman was fatal to those who got in the way

On This Date a year ago:  After Six Flags’ Kentucky Kingdom had the incident in 2007  in which a young girl had her feet severed, a teenager got his head removed by a roller coaster at Six Flags’ Atlanta park. This one clearly was the park goer’s fault, but I never found out how it played out in the courts if it ever made it to court. Here’s the story from the time:

Six Flags Over Georgia Decapitation

Here’s a link to Youtube video to get an idea of what the ride is like. You can tell how close it comes to the ground.

Six Flags Batman Video

Here is a Sunday morning  after the accident version of the Six Flags Over Georgia Roller Coaster Death  It appears that this was not the first death associated with that particular ride.  In 2002, an employee went into the same restricted area and was killed, though I don’t think that decapitation was involved.  Theme park accidents are more common than you might think.  This person has a website devoted to nothing but theme park and carnival ride accidents.  A little interesting perhaps but certainly thought provoking.

Satellite view 1215Z Sun June 28, 2009

This is probably not going to develop. It’s a system that has been hanging around near Cancun but has moved onto the Yucatan.   On Saturday morning it looked like it had potential to me but none of the hurricane models had really picked up on it enough, which surprised me a bit.  By Saturday evening, some of them had.  I think it was something like 8 of them with 6 taking it up to tropical storm strength.  About half took it across the southern Bay of Campeche with the rest having some oddball routes that crossed the Gulf.  On Sunday, with the storm centered over land, the hurricane models have lost interest again.   Even some of the conventional models don’t even show it living very long.  But, those that do take it into northern Mexico and keep it pretty pedestrian…say something between 1008 to 1o12 mb.    It’ worth watching though.

Weather Bottom Line: Late Saturday night there was an extremely impressive line of t’storms in the northern plains that looked poised to pounce on the Ohio Valley as a cold front was moving down.  With the cool of evening, the line pretty much pooped out.  Now, you see that the SPC has the slight risk for severe storms in Eastern Kentucky.   The idea is that the front will be southeast of the Louisville region in the heat of the day when the storms may  refire on that front.  Unless the front is pokey or backs up, then we should have temperatures reduced somewhat with a little lower humidity which a much more noticeable difference for the week ahead.  I would think that the only cause to pause would be the prospect that the front stays south of our area but not far enough to take the 850mb front out of our area.  In that case, we might want to keep an eye out for elevated storm developing on the 850 front.  Not a great possibility, but not out of the question.

With Obama Energy Bill Looming, Some Data Contradicts Global Warming Conventional Wisdom June 26, 2009

Maybe these cute guys like to swim and maybe their ice islands are getting smaller due to Mother Nature…possibilities that Mr. Gore doesn’t want you or anyone else to examine.

Is the Global Warming Issue Really Settled Science?

(EDIT: I really don’t need to do this but I am doing so for the benefit of one person. As you read below, nowhere will you find that I deny Global Warming.  My position, as this clearly points out, is for an honest, open and full debate, which is traditional in scientific circles. Open minds on all sides. My contention is that mankind often thinks he has an answer only to find that  we knew nothing.  I only wish people would stop using false methodology to push their position.  I would also encourage, if you like, to check out a definition of libel.)

Obama and Gore At the Same Table

Yesterday, President Obama made a speech that urged the passing of his Energy Bill,which some are calling a Global Warming Bill.  Much of it is based on the assumption that mankind is the cause of Global Warming, that there are dire consequences to Global Warming andthat mankind can and should do something to stop Global Warming.  Many would say that its based on speculation and others will suggest that the bill’s policy features, such as cap and trade, is more of a political move than anything substantive. 

It’s rather ironic that, on the same day the President made this speech, some information came from our friend Anthony Watts regarding temperatures at the North Pole.  Global Warming is supposed to cause the melting of the ice caps. 

Watts Says Arctic Coldest in 50 years

However, over the past  18-24 months, there has actually been an increase in polar ice following an all time recorded low.  Last year, there were all sorts of reports that the Arctic Ice cap might disappear completely over the summer.  That obviously did not come close to occurring.    Well, Watts reports that the average Arctic temperature has not risen above freezing which is the latest that its’ been that cold in 50 years.   He also reported that a source inside the EPA says that scientific claims are being suppressed and ignored within the EPA. 

I don’t know if it’s suppression, but the story over the past year of an undersea volcano potentially causing Arctic ice melt sure didn’t get much play…not as much as the fear that the ice cap would melt altogether last summer.   In fact, in another ironic twist, on this date in 2008, National Geographic published an article regarding the under-Arctic volcanoes that previously mankind thought was impossible.  The undersea volcano is apparently is very large and has been spewing extremely hot lava perhaps as high as two kilometers through the water.  This volcano was discovered a few years ago by accident. There had been some who had suspected that the ridge under the Arctic was oozing molten lava but no one had a clue that it was exploding with such force. One article says the eruptions are similar to the one that buried Pompeii.

Contour Map Under Arctic

Before I list a bunch of links that you can check out for yourself, I want to go back to something that I harp on. And that is that we, especially as Americans, tend to lose humility as humans and think we know everything and start talking in absolutes. Someone (Gore) goes and makes a movie, that includes secretly computer generated scenes of melting ice, and claims that all that needs to be known is known and the debate is declared over. That smacks of totalitarianism, elitism and also is an un-American effort to stifle debate in a free society. I mean, it comes from the same people who claim to be for tolerance. They tend to tolerate what they deem is acceptable and want to squash opposing viewpoints.

Once again, we find that we don’t know everything but act as if we do. Mankind is limited in it’s knowledge and incapable of dealing in absolutes. Previously I posted about the building blocks of life coming from inorganic sources from the ocean floor. Who knew? Now we find that there is a giant heat source under the Arctic that may be responsible for the rapid ice melt. Who knew? As it turns out, you’ll find in some of the links that some people did ponder the warming of ocean waters from below being the cause as they had a theory that ocean warming caused the end of the last ice age.

Did Al Conviently Leave Facts Out of his "Documentary?"

What rankles me is that this discovery was made in 2004, before the supposed documentary An Inconvenient Truth was made. If the makers didn’t know about it they should have and if it were truly a documentary and not political propaganda to push a point of view, then they would have mentioned the possibilities. And of course, the national media has focused on the topic du jour, Global Warming, and have not even sniffed at this story that first came out in 2004.

Anyway…off my soap box. Here are some links to recent articles.

Canada-Arctic Seabed Afire With Lava Spewing Volcanoes

This one apparently has been saying it’s ocean warming for quite some time.

Ice Age Now

Within that page is an article from 2007 that says a USC study shows that ocean warming and not global warming caused the end to the last ice age

USC Study

Here is an article from the National Science Foundation in 2004 that reported the accidental discovery of the volcanic activity. This was before An Inconvenient Truth was released, yet the report was ignored.

National Science Foundation

Here’s one from a site that has more of a political edge but is informative with maps and such.

The Strata-Sphere

And this one is the most recent that seems to have gotten some attention. It’s a bit political too but it has an interesting chart that shows a drop in Arctic Ice that coincides with the time of when the scientists think that the volcano erupted in 1999.

American Thinker-Arctic Ice Melt May be Due to Undersea Volcanoes

The young Bride

On This Date in History:

The most prolific President of all time got back in the saddle on this date in 1844 when President John Tyler wed his twenty-four year old second wife,Julia. The 54 year-old widower had lost his wife several months prior. She had lost her father in a cannon accident just two months prior to the wedding. You can read about the whole incident and other details on my earlier account regarding John Tyler. Bottom line is that President Tyler is the only President to be married while in office. The couple wed in secret to avoid the 19th century of the Paparazzi andbecause she was supposed to be in mourning over her father’s death and most people don’t think marrying the President of the United States as being a good exhibition of mourning. The  didn’t have much time left in office as his term was up in 8 months. But that didn’t mean that John couldn’t still get it done. He had 7 children by is first wife of 29 years. He had 8 more by his second wife. In all, he had 15 children. One was 5 years older than his 2nd wife and 45 years older than the youngest. Who says Jimmy Carter is the most accomplished former President?

Weather Bottom Line:   We had over an inch and a half of rain officiallly at the airport in the early morning hours Friday.  The lightning was pretty frequent as the thunder woke me up and I recall seeing the flashes of light with my eyes closed.    I saw a tv weather guy on Thursday night that there might be a couple of “poppers” overnight.  Uh….it was more than that.  Also, he used a term that is a pet peave of mine.  He kept referring to cold fronts as “cool” fronts.  There is no such thing.  When people do such things, I can usually ascertain where they received their academic background in Meteorlogy.  Anyway, the photos above are from last Thursday via the NWS and WDRB-TV.  Notice on the one shot the reflection in the windows of the building of the lightning that is hitting the Ohio River.  Here are expanded views of the lightning.

We should have sinking air behind the storms so I doubt if we will have anything for the rest of the day.  Saturday looks good but it will still be hot.  It’s Sunday we get another cold front that will provide a risk for strong storms again and then lower temperatures behind it for the first part of next week….probably about 10 degrees or so.

Do You Believe the Most Recent UFO Reports? USAF Sticks To Most Recent Roswell Incident Explanation June 25, 2009

Photos Don't Lie! Space Alien Met With President Bush

On This Date In History: In July of 1947, the United States Air Force first reported that personnel had found parts of a flying disc near Roswell, NM. A furor of space invasion fever took ahold of America. So the USAF changed their story to say….uh….its a weather balloon. How one can confuse a disc with a balloon is not clear. But, it was their story and they stuck to it….after they didn’t stick with the first story. Many didn’t believe them. So fifty years later, on this date in 1997, they tried to explain it again.   This time they said it was a result of several aircraft accidents combined with some balloon experiments that involved life sized dummies.  I don’t think too many people still believe them and certainly not those who have made a small cottage business out of the tale.  If the story would go away, who would go to the Space Aliens diner or buy all of those space alien t’shirts?

Man on Left Not Space Alien

And certainly the UFO sightings have not gone away as they continue to this day.  In 2008 there were several reports from Stephenville, TX of extremely fast moving aircraft that was indescribable to numerous witnesses.  Just a couple of days ago, in North Devon, UK witnesses reported strange lights in the sky.  But, those reports were possibly explained by a toy store owner, of all people.  Apparently they had sold a lot of Chinese lanterns that are used for weddings and other events.  In good weather it is said that they can float a few miles into the sky before falling back to earth.  But, earlier in June 2009, the crew of a Mexican airliner reported a UFO racing across their flightpath.  They reprted it as “spherical traffic.”  Gotta like that.  Apparently, there have been an increasing number of UFO reports from flights in and out of Mexico City.

Kiev ca 4000 BC...I love this guy

Tracking UFO’s has really been great sport on the internet.  Here’s a guy who updates UFO reports all across the USA. How about a photo gallery of UFO’s? Here’s another that claims to have the “Latest UFO Alien Paranormal News.” Now one might speculate that all of this reporting that really picked up after the Roswell Incident in 1947 is simply a result of more human activity in the atmosphere in the form of balloons and aircraft as well as military experiments that ballooned following World War II and the discovery of the utility of aircraft in warfare and commercial purposes.  That probably explains a whole bunch of these sightings.   Trouble is that many say that UFO reports were coming in almost as long as man has been around.  This site shows a bunch of ancient artwork that is supposedly some sort of circumstantial proof rather than an artisian’s creative mind.  My favorite is the one from Kiev with the guy who looks like he has a trash can on his head.  Then there have been observers who for years have claimed that there is a UFO painted on the Mona Lisa.

Chief Didn't Buy Max's Stories, Do you Buy What the USAF Offered Up?

There is no question that there are UFO’s in that they are simply objects that are unidentified.  Sorta like Global Warming.  Data shows that recorded temperatures are getting warmer within the limitations of data collection but the question really is whether or not we are causing it and if we can or should do anything about it.  Well, the objects are unidentified and the question is whether or not they are other-worldly or if they are simply unidentified explainable events like the Chinese lanterns in Great Britain.  But, when the government comes up with four explanations for something like the Roswell Incident like Maxwell Smart (“would you believe life sized dummies?”) giving multiple explanations to the Chief, then it raises lots of red flags and the smell test can’t even be measured, let alone passed.

 

Internment of Japanese Done At Urging of Earl Warren

On this date in 1969,  the US was without a Chief Justice. Earl Warren resigned his position. He is well remembered for his commission investigating the JFK assasination. His conclusion left almost as many people in disbelief as did the Roswell incident, giving rise to cottage industries invoking the name of conspiracy. He had been a Republican governor of California who was appointed Chief Justice by President Eisenhower. But, he ended up not being the type of justice Eisenhower had thought, leaving Ike to exclaim that it was “the biggest damned-fool mistake I ever made.”

One thing about Warren that many popular culture sources do not reveal is that while Warren was Governor of California during WWII, he had strongly advised President Roosevelt to pursue the course of internment of Japanese Americans. Thats why its always good to check multiple sources or read several books on a particular topic as there are some authors who only want you to know what they want you to know. Some call it lies by omission.

Tornado Probability

Weather Bottom Line:   The story is generally the same with a little wrinkle.  The ridge will break down sufficiently to perhaps allow for some thunderstorm activity this evening as a weak frontal boundary sneaks down.  The difference is that the data has taken off the table the notion that there will be a shortwave coming through the flow.  That was the main catalyst for strong storms.  As it stands now, we will just have the boundary itself running into the moist environment with the heat of the day to work with.  For that reason, the SPC has narrowed the severe risk area a bit to reflect the timing of the boundary in relation to night time cooling.  A stronger front on Sunday or so may be a bit more exciting.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2009
   
 

Hail Probability

  VALID 251300Z – 261200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VLY ENE TO THE
   LWR GRT LKS…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL
   PLNS…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN
   MT…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   DOMINANT UPR RDG WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS THROUGH FRI. 
 

Wind Probability

  IN THE WAKE OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS…AND
   DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH NOW OVER BC/WA…EXPECT THE RDG TO
   TEMPORARILY BUILD N ACROSS THE NRN PLNS.  ON THE IMMEDIATE NE SIDE
   OF THE RDG…WEAK IMPULSE THAT CROSSED THE DAKOTAS YESTERDAY IS NOW
   OVER IA.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD TURN MORE SSE TODAY AND REACH THE LWR
   OH/LWR TN VLY TONIGHT.  IN THE WEST…BC/WA TROUGH APPEARS TO HAVE
   DISLODGED LONG-LIVED LOW OFF THE SRN CA CST.  THE CA LOW SHOULD MOVE
   ACROSS CNTRL/SRN CA LATER TODAY…AND SHEAR NE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN
   TONIGHT/EARLY FRI.
  
   WITH THE PRIMARY BELT OF THE WLYS REMAINING IN CANADA…FEATURES AT
   LWR LVLS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE U.S.  TWO DIFFUSE
   CONFLUENCE AXES ARE APPARENT ATTM OVER THE N CNTRL STATES…
   EXTENDING FROM SRN MN/IA/WI/NRN IL ENE INTO WRN QUEBEC.  THESE
   FEATURES ARE LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH UPR GRT LKS UPR TROUGH AND
   SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE WRN PARTS OF
   THESE BOUNDARIES WILL REDEVELOP N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL
   NEB AND THE WRN DAKOTAS LATER TODAY AS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL
   SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE NRN RCKYS/NRN HI PLNS AHEAD OF BC/WA
   IMPULSE.
  
   …MID MS VLY ENE TO THE LWR GRT LKS…
   AFOREMENTIONED LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXES/WEAK COLD FRONTS LIKELY WILL
   SERVE TO FOCUS DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT.  BECAUSE
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE FEATURES WILL BE WEAK AND PARTLY DISRUPTED
   BY OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS…AND BECAUSE THE
   STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA…
   STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN SOMEWHAT HAPHAZARDLY AS SFC HEATING
   IRREGULARLY DESTABILIZES THE REGION.  BY MID TO LATE AFTN…HOWEVER
   …EXPECT THAT SEVERAL LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL
   HAVE EVOLVED FROM PARTS OF ERN IA/IL AND SRN WI E INTO PARTS OF
   IND…LWR MI…OH…NW PA AND WRN NY.
  
   AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR STORMS WITH SVR HAIL/WIND…
   ESPECIALLY FROM IA/IL/MO INTO SRN MI/OH…WHERE SBCAPE SHOULD BE AOA
   3000 J/KG.  STRONGER MEAN FLOW AND FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
   COMPENSATE TO SUPPORT LONG-LIVED/POSSIBLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS FARTHER
   N/E ACROSS MI/SRN ONTARIO AND NY.
  
   PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT /PARTICULARLY UPR DIVERGENCE/ AND
   STRENGTHENING WSWLY LOW LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPR
   TROUGH SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS WILL REMAIN
   ACTIVE INTO TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NY/PA.
  
   FARTHER SW…A SEPARATE…MORE DIURNAL CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE
   OVER MO…IN ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSE NOW IN IA.  WIND AND STABILITY
   FIELDS SUGGEST THAT SUCH A CLUSTER…WERE IT TO FORM…SHOULD MOVE
   MAINLY SSEWD.  EMBEDDED STORMS COULD YIELD A FEW SPOTS OF SVR
   WIND/HAIL GIVEN HI PWS AND STRONG SFC HEATING EXPECTED.
  
   …WRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS…
   LOW LVL WAA SHOULD INCREASE OVER WRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS
   LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK WARM FRONT REDEVELOPS NWD AHEAD
   OF APPROACHING UPR TROUGH.  CURRENT WV IMAGERY IN THE REGION
   PROVIDES MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORM
   DEVELOPMENT.  VARIOUS WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE APPARENT IN BAND OF FLOW
   ON WRN FRINGE OF UPR RDG…BUT HEIGHTS MAY RISE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF
   BC/WA TROUGH.
  
   NEVERTHELESS…GIVEN MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT OVER REGION AND THE
   LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG SFC HEATING/DEVELOPMENT OF TERRAIN INDUCED
   CIRCULATIONS TODAY…IT SEEMS THAT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SVR
   AFTN/EVE WILL EXIST FROM NE CO/SE WY INTO WRN NEB AND PERHAPS SW SD.
    GIVEN 25+ KT DEEP WLY SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ…SOME OF THE
   STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO THIS EVE…MOST LIKELY
   IN NEB.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD A CONTINUING THREAT FOR DMGG WIND
   AND POSSIBLY HAIL THROUGH EARLY FRI.
  
   …MT…
   STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH BC/WA TROUGH WILL MOVE ESE
   ACROSS CNTRL MT TODAY/TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE
   SPARSE…STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES…INCREASING
   CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL ASCENT…AND DPVA SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR
   STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT.  LARGE
   TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS AND FAIRLY STRONG BACKGROUND WIND
   FIELD /40-50 KT WSW FLOW AT 500 MB/ COULD YIELD A THREAT FOR A FEW
   SVR WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SVR HAIL.
  
   ..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 06/25/2009

Building Blocks of Life Created on Earth from Lifelessness. A setback for Darwin? Dillinger’s 1st Failed Robbery June 24, 2009

The "Lost City"

Is This “proof” that Charles Darwin was wrong or is it just an anomyly?

I was sitting in the doctor’s office and actually found something besides Highlights or 6 month old copies of McCalls or Sports Illustrated. Doctors are notorious for providing extremely old periodicals to read. Anyway, I stumbled upon an article in Science News that talks about how organic material is apparently being created out of inorganic matter. Hydrocarbons, it is hypothesized, are being created out of inorganic chemical reactions in thermal vents in an area called the Lost City.

This Guy Might Be 30,000 yrs old

Thermal vents typically create chimneys of minerals that rise to as high as 20 meters before the collapse. What caught these guys’ eye was the vents that were up to 60 meters and it turned out that they were made up of hydrocarbons. It’s a very interesting article and is an example of how, in the 21st century, we think we are so smart and know everything, when in fact, we know very little. We also tend to find that what we think we knew, we actually didn’t know at all. I could go on about the absolutes that get thrown about on your daily tv weathercast, Global Warming and news reports about medicine, but I won’t. Nevertheless, I will say that one of the American exports of modern science is a lack of humility and lack of recognizing the limitations of man.

I’ve always reasoned that the Charles Darwin theory of Evolution was quite palatable and I can fit it in easily into my own Faith regarding the creation of the earth. But, this little article makes me wonder. I mean, if the hypothesis is correct, then this is evidence of life being created from nothing. I suppose one might say that its evolution in that the volcanic activity is the catalyst that evolves the non-life into life,

Is the Debate Really Over or is This an Attempt to End Debate?

but I don’t think that fits. It’s also just organic matter being created, not a mammal or reptile or anything. Yet, when you look at the Scientific American article that supports Darwin, I don’t think that there is a place for this discovery. They may need to make an update. Then again, if you look at the definition of evolution from Gene Zimmer’s article supporting creationism, you find that this creation of life from lifelessness does fit into the evolutionary model. Whether or not this discovery fits either worldview is immaterial to the fact that it is cool and quite interesting.

On This Date in History: There is a new movie coming out about John Dillinger which stars Johnny Depp. It will be interesting to see if they have scenes regarding a botched robbery attempt on this date in 1933 in Monticello, Indiana. Two aspects of this caper are of interest. One is that there doesn’t seem to be much information on the attempted hold up of a Marshall Fields in Monticello by Dillinger and William Shaw. I suppose its because it was a failed attempt and Americans only like to hear about wins, not losses. Perhaps the movie will shed some light. Then again, movies rarely get history correct so maybe it will invent something based on loose facts.

Anyway, the other interesting thing about Dillinger is that, even though he was Public Enemy Number 1, his career as a criminal didn’t really last all that long. He was put in jail in 1924 following the beating of Mooresville, IN grocer Frank Morgan by Dillinger and his good friend Edgar Singleton. They had been out boozing it up and jumped the guy. Dillinger got caught when, a few days after the assault on September 6, 1924, Dillinger brought attention to himself by inquiring as to the well being of Mr. Morgan. As it turns out, Morgan couldn’t identify his attackers, but Dillinger was tricked into confessing.

McNutt Thought Dillinger Capable of all Sorts of Things after long prison sentence

Meanwhile, his buddy Ed pled not guilty. Ed was out of jail after a couple of years while Dillinger got 10-20 years for assault and 2-14 years for conspiracy to commit a felony. Some scholars think that the difference in sentences is what pissed off Dillinger and led him on a life of crime. Indiana Governor Paul McNutt thought that the sentence was so harsh that it might cause Dillinger to do anything once he was out of jail. The victim, Morgan, and even the sentencing judge thought the sentence was pretty tough and by 1933, the pair was joined by 182 townfolk lobbying to let Dillinger loose. On May 22, 1933 John Dillinger was set free.

That’s the odd part. He was set free on May 22 1933 and was dead by July 22, 1934. So his crime spree only lasted for a little more than a year. His first robbery was probably in Carlisle, IN on June 10, 1933. It was on June 24, 1933 that he and Shaw tried to rob the Marshall Fields in Monticello, IN. The fact it failed was probably more associated with his lack of experience than anything else, but I don’t know for sure. Even Monticello doesn’t want to talk about it. I suppose we could say that his first robbery was on June 10 and his first fialed robbery was on June 24. Anyway, Dillinger went on to amass some $359, 322 in loot taken before he was gunned down in Chicago on July 22, 1934…or was he…read about the conspiracy theory here.

Storms Thursday?

Weather Bottom Line: The big fat ridge that was anchored over the Southeast is progressing across the southern tier of states to the west. We were under the influence on Tuesday, hence, no rain. Same will be true today. However, as the ridge continues to edge westward, it will set itself up over West Texas which will put the Ohio Valley on the periphery. This will allow little disturbances around the edge to rotate through the region from the upper plains. It’s pretty tough to pick one out and say with any certainty when it will get wherever its going and at what stregnth. But, all of the data shows a shortwave moving through here late in the day on Thursday. On the one hand, it appears that the wave will be winding down somewhat. On the other hand, its coming through in the heat of the day. So, the boys at the SPC have put the Ohio Valley in a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for Thursday morning until Friday morning. Otherwise, it remains hot and somewhat humid. Humidity isn’t too bad though. Snow White and I went sculling yesterday evening and it was great.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

VALID 251200Z – 261200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU FROM PARTS OF THE MID
MS/OHIO VALLEYS THRU THE LWR GREAT LAKES…

…SYNOPSIS…
IN A BROAD SENSE…LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH REGARD
TO THE UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN
THE PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES NEAR THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER…A
COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT TROUGHS AND EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES
LIKELY WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. IT APPEARS THAT ONE WILL DIG ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S…FINALLY CONTRIBUTING TO THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF
REMNANT CLOSED LOW AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD…THOUGH A
TRAILING SHEAR AXIS TO ANOTHER CIRCULATION NEAR THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST MAY LINGER. MEANWHILE…AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
NORTHEASTWARD/INLAND ACCELERATION OF THE CLOSED LOW/TROUGH NOW WEST
OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SUBSTANTIAL DISCREPANCIES REMAIN
AMONG MODELS CONCERNING THE MANNER AND SPEED AT WHICH THIS
OCCURS…WHILE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD PERSISTS AMONG NCEP SREF/MREF
MEMBERS CONCERNING THIS FEATURE AND OTHER SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS
WITHIN THE EVOLVING PATTERN…WHICH WILL BE OF IMPACT TO THE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

…MID MS/OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST…
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES…A REMNANT PLUME OF MODESTLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO
STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THURSDAY…AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. WITH HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S…GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL REACH 1500-3000
J/KG. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK INHIBITION…THIS
DESTABILIZATION…COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE MID/UPPER FORCING…IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH
FLOW FIELDS…PARTICULARLY IN LOWER/MID LEVELS…SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK…THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DOWNBURSTS AND THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOLS IN
LOOSELY ORGANIZED EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING CONVECTIVE
BANDS/CLUSTERS. THESE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS…BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WANES LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

…GREAT BASIN…
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE SLIGHT RISK
PROBABILITIES. BUT…STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW /UP
TO 40-50 KT AT 500 MB/ APPEARS A POSSIBILITY THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEVADA…PERHAPS INTO WESTERN UTAH. ASSOCIATED
MOMENTUM AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR… COUPLED WITH LARGE-SCALE
FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING IMPULSE…COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. SOME HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY STRONG STORMS…BUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT…AIDED BY
LARGE LINGERING SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS.

..KERR.. 06/24/2009

The Signs Are There: Water Pollution May Be Bigger Threat Than Global Warming June 23, 2009

Cuyahoga River Ablaze in 1952

Cuyahoga River Lit Up Again in 1969

On this date in history:  In 1969, the Cuyahoga River in Cleveland was a mess. All sorts of stuff spilling into the river made it a muck of sewage and chemicals. It was yuckadoo. It was so bad that on this date in 1969, the Cuhahoga River caught fire.  It’s a great example of what I complain about often today.  That is, we know that our water is polluted, yet we don’t do much about it.  Even Chinadaily opined last year that unclean water was a global threat.  But, instead, for the most part, we make jokes and post signs.  This is what the story was with the Cuyahoga River. The joke in Cleveland in  1969 was that if you fell into the Cuyahoga River, you would decay before you  drowned.   In fact, the jokes had gone on for years because the Cuyahoga River  had caught fire on previous occasions but no one did a thing.  This time though, the event served as a catalyst as it finally got the attention of legislators.  Global Warming may be happening, but we know that water pollution is killing the fish and wildlife in places like the Ohio River, Chesapeake Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, where there is a “dead zone” all around the mouth of the Mississippi River. I think its up to about 10,000 square miles at its peak.  Yet, we push our attention toward the possible in Global Warming and do very little for the factual, which is water pollution. 

1 out of 6 people do not have clean water

The issue of water pollution in the Mississippi Watershed and others was made worse by the push toward ethanol.  Increased corn production resulted in an increase in fertilizer run-off into the river.  Ethanol is a zero sum game or worse when it comes to energy efficiency and global warming “causing” pollutants but is a big negative when it came to water pollution.   Water makes up 68% of our bodies and is an essential part of life, yet we focus instead on the unknown.  According to Charity Water, 1 in 6 people  in the world do not have clean drinking water.   I’d encourage you to help a family who is devoting their life to bringing water to the impovershed in the Dominican Republic.  Get involved, get a tax break and maybe win a house while you help others.   Let us hope that we don’t have another Cuyahoga River type disaster to get our attention regarding water pollution.  Unfortunately, in many regions, the wake-up call has been made, its just that no one seems to be listening.  

Water Pollution Comes From Many Sources

Anyway, as I said, the river had caught fire several times between 1936 and 1969.  In the famous 1969 incident,  the cause is unknown aside from the attrocious conditions of the river.  Some sources say the fire was started by spontaneous combustion. Others say that definitely it did not start that way. The one below says that the cause is unknown but it suspects sparks from a passing train….I didn’t know diesel electric motor trains caused sparks. Anyway, it points out that this was the 10th time the river had ignited.

The different sources also give different dates….some say the 22nd others say the 23rd. My guess is that it started on the night of the 22nd and burned all day on the 23rd. No matter. It happened and again, is an example of what can happen if one ignores pollution of waterways. This was an eye opening event and the leaders of Cleveland did more than simply post signs. They got together and worked to clean up and stop the problem.

Dead Zone Summer 2008

Many historians point to this event as the one that got the ball rolling for the 1972 Clean Water Act.  Things have improved but not enough.   While,it is rather uncommon today for rivers to catch fire as they did frequently in the late 19th century, what we can’t see is killing our planet and we need to do something.  Maybe if Al Gore makes a movie, then someone will wake up.

This final link has some interesting tid bits, including a Randy Newman song they claim is linked to the big fire.

Global Warming has been in the front burner for some time yet there are many experts (more than the media has led you to believe) who dispute much of the “consensus” opinions. About 15 years ago, the topic was ozone depletion. A couple of laws were passed and suddenly that debate left the headlines, but has the problem or risk really gone away?  Hit the previous link and see the answer may be “no” its just that you don’t hear about it.

Global Warming and Ozone depletion issues are fueled by speculation and some of that speculation may have very strong merit. But, in my view, we are whistling past the graveyard regarding an issue that is real and is affecting us right now.

If you walk down along the river near the Belle of Louisville, you will see a sign warning of the pollution of the river following a rainstorm. Apparently, a heavy rain causes an overflow of contaminated water up and down the river. Our news department tells me they have reported on the problem. You can find numerous reports of all sorts pollution into the river from raw sewage to other items as pointed out by the Local Government Environmental Assistance Network:

Water is Under Attack Around the World

Solvent cleaners and paints, mercury switches and lamps, lubricants and other wastes from operations and facility maintenance activities.
Disinfection by-products, i.e. trihalomethanes.
Corrosion by-products.
Leaking or broken lead from service lines, goose neck or service connections.
Radon in wells.
Pesticides and herbicides rinse waters and containers.
Industrial, commercial and household chemical discharges.

http://www.lgean.org/html/p2-11.cfm

Here’s the deal. We know of these problems. Most people I know who fish laugh when you ask if they eat any fish taken from the Ohio River. Report after report confirms the pollution and where its coming from. Its not speculation that marine species are disappearing due to pollution in fresh water and oceanic ecosystems. That could affect the entire water cycle. It deserves more immediate attention and action than other more publicized “crises” and certainly more than merely posting a sign.

Some other time I’ll talk about the problem of a lack of water. Its a bigger problem than you think. Hydrologists know it and so do investors who are buying up water rights and investing in private efforts to create water resources.

McMahon Served His Country Well

Ed McMahon  died on this date in 2009. He was 86.  He is best known as the sidekick of Johnny Carson on the tonight show.  His first gig behind the microphone was as a bingo caller when he was 15.  He spent the next 3 years traveling the state fair and carnival circuit.  Here’s an interesting thing.  after serving in the United States Marine Corps as a fighter pilot in World War II, he sold vegetable slicers on the Boardwalk in Atlantic City to pay for his education at the Catholic University in Washington, DC.   He then hosted his own late-night show in Philadelphia and played a clown in the kid’s show Big Top for which he was also a writer.  He served the nation again in the Marine Corps as a fighter pilot in the Korean War.  After that he teamed up with Carson in 1959 as the straight man to Carson on the daytime quiz show, “Can You Trust Your Wife?”  Imagine how that show would unfold today.  When Jack Paar departed the Tonight Show, Carson was called as his replacement in 1962 and McMahon went along for a 30 year ride that ended with Carson’s retirement.    I loved Ed’s live Alpo commercials that he used to do on the show as the dogs were often sure to do something that wasn’t in the script.  He appeared in several movies that often received positive reviews.  But, his call of “Heeeere’s Johnny” became part of the American lexicon.  Here is a bio of McMahon, who was a great American, perhaps more so than people realize.  He retired from the Marine Corps as a full Colonel in 1966.

Weather Bottom Line:  There is a big fat ridge over the nation’s mid section.  We are generally on the edge of the ridge but deep enough underneath to suppress most t’storm activity.  However, it won’t take much of a break down for us to get into the old “ring of fire” where storms move about the periphery of the ridge.  Until that happens, we’ll be hot and humid.

Hurricane Providence Saves Washington; Midwest, Ohio Valley Severe Storms Next Few Days June 18, 2009

Hurricane Providence Saved Washington as Commander In Chief Headed For the Hills

Madison did not live up to Cartoon Maker's Image

The war of 1812 began on this date in historywhen Congress declared war and President James Madison signed the measure into law. Why we call it the War of 1812 is lost on me because it wasn’t over until Christmas of 1814 and the biggest victory for the United States occurred after the war was over. Seems Andy Jackson and his boys in New Orleans didn’t get the news and met the British in a famous battle around Lake Borgne. The battle took place in January of 1815….so officially, one cannot say there was a battle of New Orleans in the war of 1812 because it was 1815 and the war was over. But, since Cleveland had already taken the moniker “the mistake by the lake” I guess they had to call it something. Wouldn’t that be pretty bad luck if you fought and died for your country in a battle of a war that was already over?

Stuart's George Saved by Dolley

Now, not long before the war was over, Washington DC was in big trouble. On August 24, 1814, soldiers were racing alongside the civilians out of town in a panic. The British had landed 8 days prior with some 4000 battle-hardened troops who had seen plenty of action in the wars with Napoleon. The Americans were not experienced, not well trained and not well led. The President of the United States, James Madison came galloping through on a horse shouting “Clear Out! Clear Out!” When the Commander-In-Chief is telling everyone to haul-ass, then everyone listens. One of America’s proudest moments. Before his wife, Dolley, left she grabbed a bunch of paintings including Gilbert Stuart’s famous painting of George Washington. Good thing she did.

The Redcoats came marching into Washington expecting a defense. Instead, they faced but a single volley of musket fire. But, it was enough to get their attention because it killed one guy, wounded three others and took out the horse from under the commanding general. The Brits moved on to the Capitol, where again they expected a last stand. So, they fired a few rockets through the windows and storm trooper busted down the doors only to find the chirping of crickets. So, they set the place on fire. Then they set the White House on fire as well as the Treasury building. Major General Robert Ross, the commander, stopped by the newspaper National Intelligencer to pick up the scribe’s final paper that assured the residents that the city was safe. Yup…the press was right on that story and have been as accurate ever since. Anyway, Ross couldn’t get the paper into his pocket as a souvenir because he had already filled his pockets with some of Madison’s personal papers. The general shouted, “Damn It! My pocket is full of old Madison’s love letters!” That’s what he gets for looting.

Bill Thornton Saved the Patent Office...Sorta

The next day, a single maniac named John Lewis came charging at the British Army. He was the grandnephew of George Washington and it seems he was upset over his impressment into the Royal Navy. So, he went on a revenge binge only to get himself shot to death. There was another, more successful defender though. Dr. William Thornton ran the Patent Office and just as the soldiers were set to torch the building, he told the perpetrators that they would be no better than the barbarians who had put ablaze the ancient library of Alexandria. I suppose in shame, the Redcoats backed off and the Patent Office was saved. The Divine Providence showed up.

The British tried to set fire to 150 barrels of gunpowder at an abandoned American fort. The nitwits ended up setting off the whole kit and kaboodle at once and killed 30 of their own men while wounding another 44. Seems these guys were their own worst enemy. Then the wind picked up and the rain started to fall in buckets. Just in the nick of time before the entire city was burned to the ground, a hurricane showed up. The fires were put out and Ross ordered a full scale retreat back to their ships. While the city was saved, the Patent Office that Dr. Thornton so skillfully saved wasn’t as lucky. The roof blew off. Perhaps Dr. Thornton missed church that week.

SPC Severe Outlook Thursday

Thursday Severe Hail Probability

Weather Bottom Line: Look, it’s 2:22am on Thursday and I’ve got things to do, like go to bed. So this isnt going to be too detailed. We’re in an area of unsettled weather for the next few days. We’ve got a strong jet stream and there will be areas of short waves roaming through. On Thursday, the SPC seems to feel the best chance for things blowing up will be to our northwest. That is where the biggest threat, a moderate risk, is outlined. But the flow is right down over our area so the SPC seems to think that the storms will be winding down from big boppers with some super cells to probably a line of strong stuff. While our twister threat is just 2%, our hail and high wind threat is much higher. On Friday, the big blow up area is just to our north but we are on the fringe so look for your local tv stations to be breaking into your favorite programs on Thursday and Friday and possibly Saturday too. That’s it in a nutshell. Probably a good idea to pay attention the next few days. Despite the limited risk of tornadoes on Thursday put out by the SPC, don’t be surprised to see a tornado watch….maybe Friday too.

Thursday Severe Wind Probability

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

VALID 181200Z – 191200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MN…NRN AND CNTRL
IA…SWRN WI THROUGH NRN IL INTO NRN IND…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY…ERN TN VALLEY…CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC…

…SYNOPSIS…

Friday Severe Outlook

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE THURSDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH SERN STATES. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL IN THE WEST…AND PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
APPROACHING THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL EJECT NEWD…SUPPRESSING THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES…THROUGH NWD
PROGRESS OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE SLOWED BY ONGOING CONVECTION. THE

Friday Severe Probability

EJECTING IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR A COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE
SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS…REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
A DRYLINE WILL PERSIST FROM WRN TX NWD THROUGH CNTRL KS AND SRN NEB.

…CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY REGION…

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NORTH OF WARM FRONT EARLY
THURSDAY…PRIMARILY OVER A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED WHERE LOW

Saturday Convective Outlook

LEVEL
JET INTERSECTS BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD DURING
THE DAY. A RESERVOIR OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL PERSIST IN WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE A WARM EML WILL OVERSPREAD A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOW 70F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
RESULTING IN 4000+ J/KG MLCAPE.

IN WAKE OF EARLY ACTIVITY…A CAP RESULTING FROM THE WARM EML WILL
LIKELY SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER…STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AND AS DEEPER
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FARTHER EAST ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE MOIST…UNSTABLE INFLOW FROM THE
WARM SECTOR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. BULK SHEAR OF 50+ KT WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS…SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL. TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. IN THIS REGION…HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL BE MAXIMIZED
WHERE THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO
ONE OR MORE MCSS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE.

…OH VALLEY THROUGH TN VALLEY AREA…

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC
ZONE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. NWLY FLOW
ALOFT OF 40-50 KT WILL RESULT IN BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. STORMS
MAY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AS THEY SPREAD SEWD ALONG INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

…CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC…

DIABATIC HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION THURSDAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN VICINITY OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL BE PROBABLE THROUGH MID EVENING.

…SRN HIGH PLAINS…

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH
WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL WEAKEN CAP. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS. MODEST
UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR WITH WEAK FLOW IN THE SURFACE-700 MB
LAYER WILL SUPPORT ONLY LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER…THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL/SMITH.. 06/18/2009

Should Letterman Be Fired? Did Tecumseh Need a Different Brother? June 16, 2009

Maybe Dave Should Try the Amish Look To Soothe Critics

Did Richard Simmons Already Fire Dave?

Should Letterman Be Fired? There is a mild rumble of noise afoot regarding a spat between Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and David Letterman involving a joke Letterman made referencing the governor’s daughter. At least 2  New York Assemblymen are calling for CBS to fire Letterman. Check out this example of media ignorance, a Denver TV station thinks that a Congressman and State Assemblyman are one in the same.  I was unable to find a story from the AP about the stance of the New York lawmakers, which is interesting.  Letterman apologized (sorta) once for the gaffe but it didn’t calm the storm.   So, he apoligized a second time on Monday night.  But, I’m sure that won’t satisfy a group that calls itself, FireDavidLetterman.com, who probably won’t be fired.  And I don’t think he should be.  Many think that this is comparable with the Don Imus situation.  It’s interesting that, in his defense of Letterman, George Schlatter doesn’t mention Imus at all.  I”m not sure that I agree with Schlatter that we should vote for Letterman, but I don’t think he should have been fired either.  See, I think that people should be less quick to want to end someone’s job or career.   I suspect that those who are so quick to judge have never lost a job before.  Those of us who have would not wish that on anyone.

On This Date In History: In the late 18th Century, there was a young, dissolute Shawnee warrior whom we might call a misspent youth today. His name was Laulewasika and he was prone to drunken brawls. In fact, he lost an eye in one fight. One day, he quietly lit his pipe and he fell over. The tribe thought that he was dead but during the funeral ceremony he suddenly awoke, proclaiming that he had “returned from the Master of Life” and said he was to be called the prophet Tenskwatawna.

Tecumseh(left) and his smarter Brother

It’s unclear whether or not the brother of Laulewasika, the great Shawnee leader Tecumseh, called his brother Tenskwatawna nor if he suspected that his brother was bamboozling everyone. But he certainly should have done the latter because, it just so happened, that the message being preached by this new Indian Prophet coincided with what his great brother had been urging for years. The idea was for all of the Indian tribes to unite against the White settlers. The two brothers went on tour to try and convince the other tribes of their plan with Tecumseh doing the heavy lifting with the political story while Tenskwatawna would woo them with his revival work that renounced the ways of the White man, in particular booze and religion. Their plan worked to the extent that several tribes joined them and the headquarters for their new endeavor was a town they called Tippecanoe, which meant Prophetstown. Bet I know who came up with the town name.

Anyway, this caused the territorial Governor, William Henry Harrison, to challenge the powers of Tenskwatawna in hopes of proving him to be a Charlatan. The challenge was to stop the sun, change the course of the moon and stop the rivers from flowing, among other things. Harrison said if he could do those things, then he was indeed sent by God. Well, I don’t know who made Harrison the arbitor or not, but Tenskwatawna had the answer in his back pocket. See, Tenskwatawna was a pretty smart guy and he not only knew what his brother’s political ideas were he also knew how to read a solar table. On This Date in 1806 Tenskwatawna made the sun go black then asked the Master of Life to bring it back and the sun shone brightly again! The Indians were believers!

Harrison may not have known that Tenskwatawna had read the solar tables and knew of the exact time of a solar eclipse, but he wasn’t persuaded because a few years later, he gathered an army to march on Tippecanoe. Tecumseh left to get others to join in the fight. He left his brother in charge with explicit instructions not to engage the Americans. But Tenskwatawna just couldn’t help it. He had the warriors touch his bean belt to make them immune to bullets and dip their weapons in his magic bowl to ensure victory and he ordered an attack. The Indians were routed by Harrison,the town burned to the ground and the path was set for Harrison to become President of the United States. The survivors were incensed and came after Tenskwatawna who used his powers of BS to get out of it by blaming it on his squaw! That’s right, when the chips were down, he blamed his loss on his wife whom he said stood too close to the bowl of magic potion.

This story ends with a bit of magic power, but it came from his brother Tecumseh, who it is said on his death bed put a curse on the White Man. On March 2, 1841 William Henry Harrison talked for nearly 3 hours in sub-freezing temperatures at his inauguration in Washington, DC. He died of pneumonia 30 days later. It is called Tecumseh’s curse and every president elected in a year that ended in zero has died in office, until Ronald Reagan broke Tecumseh’s curse. Tecumseh was the famous middle name of General William T. Sherman. And you know what, no one remembers the phony faker Tenskwatawna…and it’s just as well. It would teach a bad lesson to kids that being a big fibber is good. That cheaters somehow prosper. Besides, it’s easier to pronounce Tecumseh than it is Tenskwatawna.

You know what’s funny…there are actually people today who are dressing up like Tenskwatawna. Check out this imposter to the right!

SPC Convective Outlook Tue 6.16.09

6.16.09 Tornado Probability

Weather Bottom Line:  Every model that I looked at (GFS, NAM, UKMET, ECMWF,CMC) have anything from a fairly strong shortwave to a very strong shortwave moving through from the southwest to the northeast on Tuesday afternoon.  Look for rain and t’storm activity to pick up around midday.  Should the wave be a little more pokey, then the chances for severe weather will be enhanced.  If its moving quickly, then the chances would be lessened as it would get things going earlier in the day.  The Mon 18Z GFS forecast vertical profile has a very healthy CAPE, BRN, LI and K Index from mid afternoon through the evening.  The SWEAT Index is also pretty high.  The Mon 18Z NAM has similar numbers, but doesn’t raise the roof until late Tuesday night.  I suspect that the NAM is a little late.  Nevertheless, be ready for some strong t’storms by Tuesday afternoon through the evening.  While tornadic activity is possible, the primary risk will be hail and high winds.  I would count on at least  a few warnings issued.   at 9:15am, it appeared that a wave moved through the region that left cloudy conditions.  The main shortwave was a few hundred miles to the west southwest and has a vector that seems to give it a heading exactly how the earlier models suggested.  The NAM was too slow.  Looks like this afternoon it will arrive. If the initial wave can get some legs on it, then the sun will break out and that will destablize the atmosphere ahead of the main short, giving enough extra oomph to support strong storms in the heat of the day.  However, if the clouds to not break out, the severe threat will be inhibited.

6.16.09 Severe Wind Probability

Once the wave moves through, a warm front will follow.  Perhaps and errant t’shower on Wednesday and then we head to the low to mid 90’s to end the week.  A cold front comes through late Saturday bringing back a little cooler but certainly more noticeably less humid air for the second half of the weekend.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0736 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009
  
   VALID 161300Z – 171200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
   SC/GA…
   
 

6.16.09 severe hail probability

  …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CO…
  
   …MID MS VALLEY INTO KY/TN TODAY…
   MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
   EASTWARD ACROSS MO…WITH AN ASSOCIATED LARGE MCS PRODUCING
   SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MS
   VALLEY TODAY WHILE THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
   INTO PARTS OF IL/KY/TN.  RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THIS
   REGION…COUPLED WITH SIGNIFICANT MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION IN MCS
   SUGGESTS A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
   THE DAY.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET OVER
   THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
   THREAT.
  
   …NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS THIS AFTERNOON…
   UPSTREAM OF THIS AREA…THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL TEND TO
   WARM THE MID LEVELS AND INCREASE THE CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS PARTS
   OF TX/OK.  NEVERTHELESS…THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT
   CONVECTION EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.  HOT
   TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD HIGH CAPE
   VALUES AND SUGGEST THAT ANY STORM THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED WILL LIKELY
   BE SEVERE.
  
   …EASTERN SD INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO…
   EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD
   EXTENDING FROM WEAK UPPER LOW OVER ND TO NEAR OMA…THEN SOUTHWARD
   TOWARD TUL.  STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE CLOUD
   SHIELD…BUT UPPER RIDGING IS ALSO FORECAST TO OCCUR.  PRESENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
   CORRIDOR AROUND PEAK HEATING AND PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
   WEAKENING.  SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.  FURTHER REFINEMENT OF THIS PART OF THE OUTLOOK WILL
   OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AS FOCI FOR INITIATION AND EXTENT OF
   DESTABILIZATION BEHIND MCS OVER MO BECOME MORE CLEAR.
  
   …EASTERN CO…
   A BAND OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS CO TODAY WITH
   SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A RISK
   OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.  HAIL
   SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.
  
   ..HART/JEWELL.. 06/16/2009