Tax decuctable donation gives chance for a new house! (Go For It! Click HERE!) A couple is selling everything they own to help others. Lindsey and Bowin Tichenor are taking their 3 small children and moving to the Dominican Republic to help bring the impovershed nation clean drinking water. The government can’t or won’t do it, so these folks are dedicating their lives to do so. To help support their mission, they are raffling their home. (It’s a Suburban 2100 sq ft home Click Here for Specs) I’m guessing that because the money raised will go to their mission, essentially you are making a donation and then you get a chance for the home and that is why they tell me the purchase of a chance is tax-deductable. Go for it. Odds of winning are going to the casino. And you are helping others to serve the needs of people in need. Doesn’t matter what your political party is, your religion or even if you have a religion. You can help others who are helping their fellow man, you get a tax deduction and you may end up with a house. You say you care about the poor? Put your money where your mouth is!
On This Date in History: On this date in 1915, Secretary of State William Jennings Bryan resigned. In May of that year, the Germans had sunk the Lusitania, one of the worlds largest ships. Over 1200 perished, including some 128 Americans. Bryan sent a nicey-pooh note to the Germans saying how he wanted to stregnthen relations and such. I suppose today, Jennings would have gone to the UN. Nevertheless, the Germans responded saying that they were justified in torpedoing the passenger ship, claiming it was carrying arms. Years later, historians have established the ship was indeed carrying a small amount of armaments.
Now, Bryan was big-time anti-war. He had run for President a few times and lost each time but supported President Wilson because the President had run on a platform of peace. He supported Wilson’s declaration of US neutrality. But, Bryan saw that the advances in technology had made traditional aspects of neutrality dangerous. He thought that a position of neutrality should be modified to restrict the travel of Americans into war zones because it was impossible to protect US citizens when there are submarines running around. But, Wilson insisted on tradition.
So, when the Lusitania went down, President Woodrow Wilson responded with a terse note demanding that Germany curtail its practice of unrestricted warfare. Bryan urged the President to send a similar letter to the British for its violation of neutral rights. I suppose that would be “fair” except that any violations the Brits had did not include the sinking of ocean liners filled with passengers Wilson instead sent a second letter to the Germans. Bryan, fearing the letter represented an escalation toward war, resigned instead of signing the letter. The Germans responded by scaling back their U-Boat practices through 1916. When they started again in 1917, Wilson eventually asked for, and received, a declaration of war against Germany. The Yanks indeed did come and turned the tables of the conflict against the Axis powers and the war eventually came to an end.
By the way, the man who took Bryan’s place was Robert Lansing….no relation to the actor, seen here as Mr. Gary Seven from a famous Star Trek episode. The actor’s real name was Robert Howell Brown. He took his stage name from the town of Lansing, Michigan.
Weather Bottom Line: One certainty that shows up when looking at the vertical profile progs is that we will remain unstable for the next few days. There is a boundary stalled to our north and so waves will run along the boundary and enhance the risk for rain and potentially the risk for strong storms. As I had indicated previously, a wave did in fact move to our north Wednesday morning with the appendage sticking down enough to provide some rain and t’storms just north of Louisville but not enough to engulf the entire area. I’m supposing that as the wave moves by, the stationary boundary will sag a shade farther south in its wake. So, the next waves that come along will track a bit farther South. Timing and exact route of these waves will remain problematic and will probably only be known when they actually initiate storms.
Nevertheless, the NAM puts a wave on us around Midnight Wednesday night. The parameters are pretty healthy then and the NAM even ramps up the SWEAT index to near the 400 threshold for an enhanced twister risk. It also has even stronger feedback for Thursday. The GFS advertises more consistent rain chances throughout the day but takes its parameters highest throughout Thursday and even Friday. Probably a pretty good idea to keep abreast of the weather the next few days. By late Friday, the front is progged to sag South. Some data suggests that another wave forms in the Southern Plains on Friday and moves it into the Ohio Valley on Saturday, thus dragging the front back our way. Should that occur, then we may be vulnerable to more rain and possibly strong storms. We’ll wait to see what happens. So, don’t panic, but keep your ears on. Biggest risk the next few days will be for wind and hail but one cannot discount the tornado risk as super cells may pop up on an isolated basis.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009
VALID 101300Z – 111200Z
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT…
BROAD BELT OF 40-50KT W/WSWLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM COAST-TO-COAST TODAY
BETWEEN LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER CANADA AND NRN BORDER
STATES…AND SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO/SRN TX AND THE ADJACENT
GULF OF MEXICO. NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
BECOME SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SRN GREAT PLAINS TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM AZ/NM.
AT THE SFC…A COMPLEX QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE…FRACTURED IN
A NUMBER OF AREAS BY DIURNAL/EPISODIC CONVECTION…EXTENDS FROM ERN
CO FRONT RANGE SEWD TO KS/OK…AND THEN EWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
THE FRONT BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFUSE FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST.
TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION ALONG/NEAR THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THIS
FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE MODULATED BY SEVERAL COMPLEX FACTORS TODAY
INCLUDING: 1)FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST…AS WELL AS A WEAKER LEADING
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM MO EWD TO THE OH VALLEY…2)
PLACEMENT/LOCATION OF RESIDUAL STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FRONTAL WAVES/ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT…AND 3) LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXES/DISCONTINUITIES INCLUDING
RESIDUAL DRYLINE INFLUENCE ANALYZED ACROSS TX PNHDL/WRN OK…AND
DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE SITUATED FROM TX NWD/NEWD TO THE OZARKS.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH REGARD TO STORM
DEVELOPMENT/CHARACTER ACROSS THIS LARGE REGION TODAY GIVEN
COMPLEXITIES ALREADY MENTIONED. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH EJECTING FROM AZ/NM WAS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER A BROAD REGION. RECENT DEVELOPMENT WAS ALSO
INCREASING ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM TRANS-PECOS AREA NEWD ALONG
THE CAPROCK WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE WAS OVERCOMING DRIER AIR
IN THE WAKE OF DRYLINE SURGE THAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY.
STRENGTHENING BACKGROUND ASCENT ON THE LARGE SCALE WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS TX/OK…AND THE FRONTAL ZONE
SITUATED ACROSS THE PNHDLS AND NRN OK…EXPECT MORE VIGOROUS AND
ORGANIZED STORMS TO BECOME MOST PREVALENT NEAR THESE FEATURES AND
BOUNDARIES. STORM INTENSITY IN TX MAY BE LIMITED BY SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FROM TX PNHDL
ACROSS WRN OK…AND NEAR THE FRONT IN OK/SRN KS WHERE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MORE LIMITED CLOUD COVER EXISTS THIS
STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AS MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. STORM
SCALE AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES YET TO DEVELOP/OCCUR WILL PLAY A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW AND WHERE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS REALIZED.
IN ADDITION TO WIND…LARGE HAIL…AND SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL…UPSCALE ORGANIZATION INTO AN MCS OR TWO APPEARS LIKELY
FROM KS TO TX LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES MIGHT BE DEPICTED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS AS STORMS INCREASE AND ORGANIZE THROUGH LATER TODAY.
…MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY…
A ZONE OF ENHANCED STORM POTENTIAL MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM MO/IL
EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. LIFT WITH THE
LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE NOW DRIVING STORMS ACROSS SERN MO WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RESIDUAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION ATTM…POCKETS OF GREATER SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENT PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. EFFECTIVE FLOW AS FORECAST
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL/TERRAIN-INDUCED DEEP CONVECTION IS FORECAST
FROM PA/WV SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY AIDED BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING…BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW…AND WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
STRONG HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTRIBUTE DOWNBURST AND
SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30KT
INDICATES PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR.
HOWEVER…SOME LOCAL/GREATER ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE AS STORM
MERGERS GENERATE EXPANDING/STRONG COLD POOLS.
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AGAIN AID STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CO/SERN
WY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NE/KS TODAY WITHIN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED
FLOW FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS COMPARED TO PRIOR
DAYS…INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO ACT TO
INHIBIT GREATER DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS…PRESENCE OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT…LOCALLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG RESIDUAL
FRONTAL ZONE…AND STEEP LAPSE RATES…SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS CONVECTION COULD CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS AND MOVE ACROSS WRN
KS/NE LATER TONIGHT.