Hurricane Kyle Headed Toward A Cold Demise


Hurricane Kyle Satellite IR Image 0928 2045Z

Hurricane Kyle Satellite IR Image 0928 2045Z

 

For a Hurricane Kyle Radar Image as it moves through the Gulf of Maine, CLICK HERE, but you better do so fast as the storm is moving quickly.  Just navigate from the Ohio Valley default region to the northeast.  Hit animate to loop and you can add clouds and lightning if it suits your fancy.

Hurricane Kyle Forecast Track 0928 5pm

Hurricane Kyle Forecast Track 0928 5pm

Hurricane Kyle is behaving.  If it were being analyzed for the first time, it probably would not be called a hurricane.  But, since it was, then it is.  It is rapidly losing tropical characteristics and even looks to have a frontal zone associated with it. Certainly you can see its more of a classical comma shape than a tropical cyclone.  It is over waters that are less than 60 degrees.  Remember, you need at least 80 degrees for a tropical cyclone.  But, the winds remain high so why not keep it designated as a hurricane for public consumption so people won’t get lackadasical.  In the report below you see them reference the buoy that at 1pm edt reported seas of 36 feet.  The water temperature at that location 170 NM east of Hyannisport, MA was 55 degrees and the air temperature was 61.  Not exactly a tropical paradise.  Nevertheless, its a pretty good storm and will quickly zip north toward Northeast Quebec or perhaps into New Foundland. 

HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

KYLE IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING…A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM…AND AN ASYMMETRIC
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN.  EARLIER TODAY…AT ABOUT 1600 UTC…NOAA
DATA BUOY 44011 REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 51 KT WITH A
GUST TO 72 KT AT AN INSTRUMENT HEIGHT OF 5 METERS.  THE BUOY ALSO
REPORTED 36-FOOT SEAS WHICH LIKELY CAUSED SOME SHELTERING OF THE
ANEMOMETER…AND UNDER-REPORTING OF THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.  THE
BUOY ALSO REPORTED A LOWEST PRESSURE OF 987.1 WITH WINDS OF 31
KT…SUGGESTING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 984 MB.  THESE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT KYLE MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER…GIVEN THE RECENT DETERIORATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN AND COLDER WATERS…KYLE MAY NOW JUST BARELY BE AT
HURRICANE INTENSITY.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH OF A BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE…I.E. THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CYCLONE… AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM IN A DAY OR TWO.
CONSEQUENTLY THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS…
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 030/22.  IN SPITE OF THE RECENT
ACCELERATION…THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD
SPEED WILL SLOW WITHIN 12 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS WEAKEN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/2100Z 42.7N  66.1W    65 KT
12HR VT     29/0600Z 45.1N  64.7W    55 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
24HR VT     29/1800Z 47.7N  63.3W    45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     30/0600Z 49.5N  63.0W    35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT     30/1800Z 50.5N  63.5W    25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT     01/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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