Global Temperatures Cooling For 2008? For Bastille Day?


Our weather is just great.  Dry air moved in on Sunday. For a time, the heat index was actually below the air temperature by a couple of degrees.  Look for cool nights and warm afternoons for Monday and Tuesday.  We move toward 90 on Wednesday as we get a little more humid and then the rest of the week through the weekend its hot and humid with lows in the 70’s and highs in the low to mid 90’s.  Next rain chance, and it’s not a great one, is on Sunday.

On This Date in History:  The citizens of Paris stormed the Bastille!  The Estates-General was a political body made up of the nobility, the clergy and the commoners.  The commoners were the 3rd Estate.  They petitioned in June 1789 for a new constitution in France and the other estates soon joined in.  Louis XVI went and fired the Finance Minister and the people were afraid that they would be attacked by the military.  So, the stormed the Bastille, which was a fortress that also served as a prison for many political prisoners.  When they got to the gate, the guy in charge let them in, fearing a blood bath.  There were only 7 prisoners in the Bastille and there really weren’t all that many armaments but the occasion has stood as a symbol of French Rebellion that eventually led to Louis and Marie Antoinette losing their heads and eventually to a French Republic..which was promptly usurped by Napoleon Bonaparte, which was good for the US since he sold us much of the United States in the Louisiana Purchase.  France really didn’t finally end up as a Republic until later in the 19th Century.  Nevertheless, July 14 is sort of a French version of the Fourth of July…it also stands as a good back drop for Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities.

Global Temperature Report for June:  Are we getting cooler?

June 2008 Global Temperature map.

In June, according to data from the University of Alabama at Huntsville, The June 2008 Global Temperature Report states that global temperatures were .11C below the 20 year average with the Northern Hemisphere being equal to the average while the Southern Hemisphere was .23C below the 20 year average.

This is interesting.  The general thought is that the trend for the last several months of cooler temperatures has to do with La Nina, but it does give some ammo to those who dispute the global warming argument.  Here’s a breakdown for 2008:

Feb:  Global composite: +.20C deviation from the 20 year average; N. Hemisphere +.25C; S.Hemisphere-.21C

Mar: Global composite: +.09C deviation from the 20 year average; N. Hemisphere +.42C; S. Hemisphere -.25C

April: Global composite: +.02C deviation from the 20 year average; N. Hemisphere +.17C; S. Hemisphere -.14C

May: Global composite: -.18C deviation from the 20 year average; N. Hemisphere -.05C; S. Hemisphere -.31C.

June: Global Composite: -.11C deviation from the 20 year average; N. Hemisphere nil; S. Hemisphere -.23C

A couple of things you notice. First is the over all trend seems cooler.  The Northern Hemisphere has been warmer but the last few months it too is cooling somewhat. The Southern Hemisphere has been well below the 20 year average throughout. Further, the tropical zones have been consistently cooler.  March and April were .49C and .53C cooler respectively in the tropics marking the largest cooling departure since a La Nina event in 1989.  And even though La Nina is generally a tropical cooling phenomena, globally, June 2008 was the  coolest since June 1999.

Is this a trend?  Our friend Anthony Watts seems to think so as he posted in January of 2008 that this trend has been going on since January of last year.  He cites four sources in This Post. He also has weighed in on the melting polar ice cap.  Remember I chastised the reporter for highlighting the “50-50 chance” hypothesis and burying other scientists views, as well as other journalistic foibles?  Well, Watts chimes in with photos of the Arctic and claims the melting better start soon if the fears of a watery grave for Santa Claus are to come about.

For whatever reason, it seems clear that the facts show that we have gotten cooler lately and not warmer.  Now, it could be honestly said that a few months does not a trend make and I’m sure that’s what the Al Gore crowd would say.  And it could be the case. But, I don’t think that their computer models predicted this. And they certainly didn’t publicize it if they did.  No, this is an example of how complicated the global climate really is and why a more thorough, honest, depoliticized examination needs to be done instead of people with economic interests making claims based on bad methodologies, incomplete data or with data deliberately altered or omitted.  And then we need to decide if anything can or should be done. 

Everyone likes to jump on the bandwagon, but it’s possible that this bandwagon is being driven by Hector Heathcote instead of Ben Franklin.

2 Responses

  1. I found your blog on MSN Search. Nice writing. I will check back to read more.

    Eric Hundin

  2. Thanx Eric.

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