Typhoon Fanapi Set To Strike Taiwan Before Weekend is Over September 18, 2010

Click on Image for Most Recent Western Pacific Rainbow IR Image Loop

Typhoon Fanapi Forecast Track as per Joint Typhoon Warning Center

The people in Taiwan are anticipating the arrival of Typhoon Finapi.  Among other things, it is disrupting the fishing season that just started at the beginning of the month.  Perhaps more importantly, the Typhoon is packing winds that will cause concern for damage and a potentially devastaing surge.  However, the actual surge is determined by geograhpical features of the island as well as the physical features of the shelf and I am not aware of the physical features around Taiwan.  I cannot find any buoys in the region that are in operating condition but reports of 28 foot seas have been made.   While the forward speed of around 12 mph might limit the storm surge potential to a small degree, winds running at 105 kts (120 mph) will be sufficient to push a substantial amount of water up to the right of landfall.  Typhoon Fanapi’s intensity puts it as an equivalent of a category 3 hurricane.   Beyond the wind and surge threat, the topography of the island will serve to enhance rain totals and authorities are expecting up to 20 inches in some areas.  With a storm travelling around 10 mph, Typhoon conditions can be expected in several parts of the island for up to 8-12 hours.

Total Precipitable Water-Click on Image For Most Recent Loop

When you look at the satellite imagery, you find that Finapi is a well formed, compact tropical cyclone but the outflow to the north is almost absent while there remains some outflow to the south.  There is a big fat high to the north of the cyclone that is inhibiting the poleward outflow which may have inhibited the storm from becoming even more intense.   The central pressure of 935 mb has the potential to support winds higher than previous estimates.  Nevertheless, tropical storm force winds extend up to 150 miles from the center and typhoon winds some 35 to 40 miles from the center of circulation.   I suspect that there is the possibility that this storm may be getting slightly more intense as it approaches Taiwan for landfall as it appears that Fanapi has completed an eyewall replacement cycle.  An eyewall replacement cycle is a natural occurence related to a well developed tropical cyclone and typically, the maximum winds decrease as the storm goes through the cycle of replacing an eyewall, though the overall strong windfield expands.  Once the cycle is complete, then the storm returns to its previous intensity.  Hence, the satellite imagery suggests that the cycle is complete and Fanapi may be ramping up toward maximum potential just prior to landfall.

Fanapi IR Satellite 09.18.10 1732Z

For what it’s worth, Fanapi is the Micronesian name for “sandy islands” and it is expected to continue on its track generally to the west at around 10 kts and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center Forecasts points  to a landfall about 70 miles SSE of Taipei near the coastal town of Hualien.  Geographically speaking, it seems to me that the little bay to the north of Hualien may be vulnerable to an enhanced surge.  Once the storm makes landfall, the topographical features of Taiwan will disrupt the storm sufficiently that it will fall to below 100 kts when it re-emerges over the Taiwan Straits and will move into China within 36 hours with winds of around 80 to 85 kts about 150 miles Northeast of Hong Kong.  Inland flooding will be a concern for China as the storm dissipates, particularly when one considers that China has experienced flooding problems all summer long in many parts of the huge nation.

Typhoon Mirinae kills dozens in Vietnam and Philippines; More Heavy rain for Filipinos November 3, 2009

Filipinos Honor Dead in Cemeteries in boats on All Saints Day

Mirinae brought flooding to Vietnam

Typhoon Mirinae had one last gasp before making a second landfall in Vietnam (see video).  As I had last reported, the microwave imagery showed that an eye was forming again as the storm moved from the Philippines across the South China Sea.  It had been downgraded to tropical storm status but the JTWC increased its intensity following the microwave observation.  It was not expected to continue strengthening though due to some sheer and also colder water temperatures.  The microwave image even detected an erosion of the eye structure.  Well, it got a bit of a kick and continued to intensify, back to Typhoon status just prior to making landfall in Vietnam.   The moniker really made no significant difference because the true threat from the storm was always the heavy rain potential.  Early reports say that Typhoon Mirinae killed anywhere from 23 to 40 in Vietnam but, these are preliminary reports. 

Meanwhile, the death toll from Typhoon Mirinae in the Philippines was put at 19 by Channel News Asia (see photo gallery) but broadcast reports now say that the number has risen to 20.  I’m not sure if it’s a political move or not, but officials in the Philippines are saying that preparation is what kept the death toll from not being anywhere close to that of Typhoon Parma and Typhoon Ketsana which collectively killed over 900.  Now, the government was criticized for not reacting stronger to the threat from Ketsana and Parma.  So, it’s possible that officials are just taking credit to help their image with the voters.  But, here’s the thing.  I’m not aware of what the government did or didn’t do with the previous storms but with the amount of rain that the Philippines got and the terrain of the nation and the location of villages in that country in relation to that terrain, I’m not sure what people expected the government to do.  They can’t stop the rain nor the ensuing flooding or mudslides.  Conversely, with this storm, the death toll was probably held down due to the speed of Mirinae as it moved across the island, thus decreasing rain totals, than anything the government did.  Man and its governments can only do so much when dealing with the forces of nature and governments often get too much blame or too much credit when dealing with weather events.  As US Grant was fond of saying, “Man proposes, God disposes.”

The second tropical cyclone that looked from all data that it would follow right behind Mirinae into the  Northern Philippines was upgraded to a tropical depression.  It began to fall apart but, like Mirinae, the intensity was never the issue. It was rain and now it has moved into Luzon Province and is dropping heavy rain.  This could be problematic in that this guy is not moving as quickly as Mirinae.

Potential Typhoon Mirinae Making Early Threat to Philippines October 26, 2009

Western Pacific IR Satellite Loop (Tropical Storm 23W, developing Typhoon Mirinae)

For a more recent update on Typhoon Mirinae CLICK HERE

Tropical Storm 23W 1130Z 10.26.09 (Typhoon Mirinae)

While the Philippines escaped the wrath of Typhoon Lupit, Tropical Storm 23W is developing well east of the Philippines and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast not only develops it into Typhoon Mirinae, but also makes the storm intensity 100 kts as it moves into the Philippines almost due east of Manila at 12Z on October 31.  The ridge that had broken down enough to allow Lupit to scamper to the northeast, away from the Philippines has filled back in and is growing stronger.  As we saw with Typhoon Lupit, with several days before projected landfall, there can be many changes to the environment and also the steering currents.  So, this is not to be taken as Gospel.  However, the reasoning is sound and the storm is already developing and moving faster than intially anticipated.  The Philippines will certainly be on guard as any tropical cyclone activity in the region that remotely threatens the country needs to be taken seriously given the region will be slow to recover from the effects of Typhoon Parma and Tropical Storm Ketsana. Developing Tropical Storm 23W will be affecting Andersen Air Force Base,  south of Saipan, by 00Z October 27.

Tropical Storm 23W Forecast Track (typhoon mirinae)

WDPN32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W CONSOLIDATED FURTHER AS IT TRACKED AT
A FASTER THAN NORMAL RATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 260918Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES OF T2.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.  A 260000Z PGUM UPPER-AIR SOUNDING REPORTING EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 400 MB SUPPORTS CURRENT AND PROJECTED
STORM MOTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN.
    B. TS 23W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS DESCRIBED
IN PARA 2.A. THE STORM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO
TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72, AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, UP
TO 100 KNOTS, AS IT TRACKS OVER THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
THE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MINIMAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS LEFT
OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS AND TRACKS THE STORM BETWEEN GUAM AND SAIPAN.
WBAR REMAINS RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE AND EGRR STARTS TO THE LEFT UP TO
TAU 72 BEFORE IT VEERS TOWARDS THE MAIN PACK.//
NNNN

Philippines spared from Typhoon Lupit and Probably so is everyone else. October 23, 2009

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track 12Z 10.23.09 Click Image for most recent update

Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop Click for most recent

Looks like an “I told you so” is in order.  When I looked at Typhoon Lupit before midnight EDT on October 22, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center had indicated that dry air had gotten into the circulation and so they downgraded Lupit to a Tropical Storm.   The forecast still called for the storm to linger just north of Luzon, Philippines for a few days until a trof developed in a weakness in the ridge to the north and then it would pick up the storm and take it north.  I had noted last night that I had observed on the Total Precipitable Water loop that it appeared that Lupit had already begun moving north, though it was so few frames worth, I could not be certain that it wasn’t just a wobble. 

Total Precipitable Water Loop

Well, it wasn’t just a wobble.  It has indeed been drifting north and now north-northeast, or away from the Philippines.  The trof will continue to pick up the storm and it will slowly increase forward speed to the north-northeast and then northeast.  So much so that I doubt this guy ends up being any problems for anything beside shipping interest.    The storm simply took too much time to get to the Philippines.  It stuck around long enough for the steering environment to change and now it would appear that the Philippines, and everyone else is in good shape.    Or, you may say that prayers were answered.  Either way, it seems very unlikely that Lupit will be adversely affecting any major land masses, though coastal regions of Japan will probably monitor the storm closely until it has moved sufficiently north to northeast to eliminate any landfall potential there.

Dry Air Intrusion Shows Up Well on Water Vapor Imagery Loop

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR
039//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON A 230937Z WINDSAT AND 231006Z SSMI IMAGE. BASED ON THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) IS STILL MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE, AND BASED ON PERSISTENCE
OF THE IMAGERY, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE
LLCC HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED AND DISORGANIZED. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE JET HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF LUPIT, CAUSING DRY AIR
INTRUSION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO
VISIBLE IN THE IMAGERY, IS NOW LOCATED OVER TAIWAN AND IS BRIEFLY
ALLOWING TS 22W TO FORM A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THIS CHANNEL
APPEARS TO BE HELPING TS 22W TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY IN LIGHT OF
THE DRY AIR ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. LUPIT IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).

I Told You So!

3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED TO A NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK AS THE STR TO THE EAST OF LUPIT
HAS STARTED TO ENHANCE, BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.
THE TRACK SPEEDS REMAIN SLOW AS THE STR HAS ONLY STARTED TO BUILD.
    B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE, THE TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF LUPIT
CONTINUES TO INTRUDE UPON THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM AT THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 HOWEVER, WBAR, ECMF AND GFS SHOW THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY
UNDER THE CURRENT WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION COULD
POSSIBLY LEAD TO DISSIPATION OF THIS SYSTEM MORE QUICKLY THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON A SLOW TRACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING. INCREASING INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
ELEMENT IN THE WEAKENING OF TS 22W.//
NNNN

Typhoon Lupit Forecast and Behaviour Should Provide Optimism for Philippines October 23, 2009

Western Pacific IR Color Loop click for latest

For update on brighter Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track CLICK HERE

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track JTWC

The Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track scenario isn’t much changed from the previous post. It’s not even a Typhoon any longer.  While I think in the end, the data reflects potentially a much more positive outlook for the Philippines, Filipinos remain concerned about Typhoon, now Tropical Storm, Lupit.  And they should e concerned, but optimistic.  Really, there are very weak steering currents and I think its been drifting WSW mainly due to its own forward momentum.  The official forecast has it drift down toward Bataan on the northern edge of Luzon.  Then it kinda drifts just off the northern coast in the Luzon Strait.  I had noted yesterday that I thought that I saw some dry air within Lupit and now the JTWC makes note of that dry air which is responsible for further weakening.  The intensity of the storm is not really the issue.  The issue is rain.  If this scenario plays out, then the center of circulation stays just offshore and very heavy rains could persist over parts of Luzon for about 72 hours or so.  The flooding issue has always been the concern. 

TRMM 3 hour rainfall click for latest

Now, I had mentioned yesterday a weakness in the ridge to the north with the center over China getting broken down.  The JTWC suggests that a trof will plow through the flow and create a nice channel to the north of Lupit.  That would cause the storm to be influenced north and then race northeast.   That may put it onto a course for Japan similar to Typhoon Melor but I suspect that the turn would be sharp enough and early enough to keep the storm east of Japan.  I looked at the NASA TRMM satellite imagery and it indicates that the area in the ocean just northeast of the Philippines has gotten over 4 inches of rain in the past 24 hours.  So, from that simple comparison, it is possible that the Philippines could be receiving at least 3-5 inches of rain per day while the storm loiters offshore and right now, it would seem safe to assume the current forecast reasoning would keep the influence of Lupit on Luzon for about 3 days. 

Now, there is perhaps some good news.  I once had a colleague who told me of a professor that he had who reminded him all the time that the computer models were, in the end, just a piece of paper.  I had a professor, Dr. Norman K. Wagner, who used to say that as forecasters we often forget to look out the window and see what is really  happening.  Well, if you look at the Total Precipitable Water Loop (TPW) below, you can see that it would appear the storm may be drifting north already which would suggest that it was already getting influenced by a weakness in the ridge to the north.  This is my observation as of 23:38  EDT on Thursday.  It could just be a wobble.  But if it is an indication that it has started some movement northward, then Luzon may be in luck.  We’ll have to wait and see, but the 00Z 10.23.09 JTWC update will probably reflect this change.  If I had to bet, I’d say that Luzon will probably fare not nearly as badly as it once appeared it would.  But, no one will rest until Lupit is gone.

Total Precipitable Water Loop

WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR
037//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE FIX AND THE 222149Z MICROWAVE FIX FROM PGTW.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN IMPACTED BY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY
AIR INTRUSION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE DRY AIR CROSSING OVER LUZON IS
BEGINNING TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER, CAUSING A FURTHER DISRUPTION
IN ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION. A RECENT 222245Z SSMIS PASS
SHOWS THAT THE WESTERN BANDING AND THE WESTERN WALL OF THE EYE ARE
SEVERELY IMPACTED BY DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
TS 22W CONTINUES TO TRACK IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND THE STR TO THE EAST. AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF THE REGION DEPICTS A WEAK FINGER OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVELS IS STILL EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF TS 22W. THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO SLOW AS
IT GETS DEEPER INTO AN ILL DEFINED STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT IS
STILL TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE FINGER.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWING BEFORE EVENTUALLY
LOITERING IN THE STRAIT OF LUZON THROUGH TAU 72. THE PASSAGE OF A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AROUND TAU 6 THROUGH 12 WILL CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK A BIT MORE POLEWARD AS THE FINGER OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH ERODES SLIGHTLY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, THE
SYSTEM WILL RESUME DRIFTING TOWARDS THE WEST. NUMERICAL MODELS
REMAIN INCONSISTENT. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE FINGER OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER,
NOGAPS, GFDN, ECMWF, AND UKMO NOW TRACK THE SYSTEM MUCH SLOWER
THROUGH TAU 72, AND THEN TRACK THE SYSTEM ERRATICALLY AFTER TAU 72.
THE MODELS ARE STILL UNSTABLE, AND THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANALYZED FINGER OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE VERY PROBABLE SCENARIO OF THE SYSTEM TURNING POLEWARD BY TAU 24
AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE FLOW REMAINS AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO IN RESPONSE TO THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST, OR REORIENTATION OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE
FINGER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES BACK TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN THE FACE OF DRY AIR
AND INTERACTION FROM LAND, THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN TO THE POINT THAT
IT IS STEERED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND TRACK INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA.//
NNNN

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track Highly Uncertain; Philippine Flooding Threat Remains October 22, 2009

Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop-click for latest images

For updated information regarding Typhoon Lupit and the Philippines CLICK HERE

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track

Within the previous post, I made the following comment regarding the Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track: “I would also keep my ears on if I were in Taiwan.  The fact that the storm has slowed down may allow for some other environmental factors that would cause the track to change significantly.”  What I was talking about is that the forecast track that has been so consistent for so long with a landfall for the northern Philippines was based on the assumption of the storm maintaining a consistent forward motion.  I had noted that Typhoon Lupit was slowing down.  The problem with that is that as it slows down, it allows for the increasing potential that the steering mechanisms will change.  That appears to have happened.  The models,which had been tightly packed are now all over the place.  It is no longer a probability that Typhoon Lupit strikes the Philippines but instead just one of a number of possibilities.  There is even the real possibility that this storm hits nothing; that is curves north of the Philippines, stays east of Taiwan and gets picked up in the flow such that it races northeast off the Japan coast.  But again, that is but one possibility. 

Typhoon Lupit Water Vapor Loop

As it stands now, the official track takes Typhoon Lupit just along the northern coast of Luzon at a very slow pace if not nearly stationary.  That would be potentially very bad as the center of circulation would stay offshore and heavy rain potential for over 48 hours over Luzon could be extremely problematic.  I would almost venture to say that this is a worse scenario than a direct quick hit and passage.  But, if you read the forecast reasoning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center below, you can read the number of times that they speak of uncertainty.  The reason for that is that, as previously stated, the models are all over the place.  There are indications that the steering ridge to the west over China is eroding.  That would tend to support the models contention that the ridge over the Pacific will become more dominant with its influence.  Think of it as a weakness between ridges and if that is the case, then the storm will want to go poleward between the ridges in that  weak channel.  But, the potential problem lies in the time it takes for that weak channel to develop.  Until it does, the storm will sorta drift around in a quasistationary state until the steering currents get more established.  That is what the early morning forecast track on October 22 reflects. 

Total Precipitable Water Loop

This is no longer a forecast of high confidence.  The Philippines is still not out of the woods.  But, Taiwan and Japan face a possible threat.  I had noted that there seemed to be some dry air within the storm that may inhibit intensification.  The JTWC, however, notes dry air to the northwest but reports that the Total Precipitable Water imagery does not indicate that dry air has gotten into the flow. If the storm does in fact have enough momentum to take it down toward the Philippines before it begins to drift, the JTWC feels like there is some chance for an increase in intensity but it is almost unthinkable for this to get anywhere close to its former super typhoon status.  I would think that the biggest concern for Luzon will be rainfall and the proximity of the storm to the coast when it does become quasistationary.  If this guy lingers around too long, it may get killed by some unforseen outside influence.  So many possibilities and so many questions.

 

WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
A SYSTEM WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TRANSITIONING BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND THE STR TO THE WEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, BUT PRECIPITABLE
WATER DOES NOT YET SHOW DRY AIR INTRUSION. POSITION IS BASED ON
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. INTENSITY IS BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
RJTD AND KNES.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE STRAIT OF LUZON WITH THE VERY PROBABLE SCENARIO OF A POLEWARD
TURN.
    B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND LOITER IN THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND THE STR TO THE WEST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON. THE FURTHER
WEST THE SYSTEM TRACKS, THE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE THE STR TO THE WEST
BECOMES. THE WESTERN RIDGE, HOWEVER, IS BEING ERODED BY DRY,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A DOMINANT
INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM IN THE EARLY TAUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS ERRATIC, A COMMON INDICATOR OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
UNTIL THEY STABILIZE, NOT A LOT OF CREDIBILITY IS BEING PLACED ON
THE MODELS. CURRENTLY, THE MAJORITY OF AIDS HAVE THE SYSTEM MAKING A
SUDDEN POLEWARD TURN BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24; PRESUMABLY THEY HAVE
THE STR TO THE EAST BECOMING THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM.
CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE REGION DOES NOT REVEAL A CLEAR
PICTURE OF THE SYNOPTIC STEERING FLOW, LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAK
ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST PRESENTS THE SYSTEM TRACKING VERY SLOWLY
IN THE ILL DEFINED STEERING FLOW.
   C. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON, IT IS
EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS INFLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY, AND SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
POLEWARD TURN DURING THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT-WAVE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
THERE REMAINS A VERY LIKELY CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE PICKED UP
BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU
12 AND TAU 36, IN WHICH CASE IT WILL TURN POLEWARD AND START TO
ACCELERATE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. //
NNNN

Weaker Typhoon Lupit Track Focus Remains on Luzon, Philippines. Back to Bataan? October 21, 2009

Typhoon Lupit 23:30Z 10.20.09

For a more recent update on the changing forecast track of Typhoon Lupit CLICK HERE

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track

The Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track and intensity forecast remains fairly consistent.  However, the timing of the landfall has been pushed back somewhat.  The GFS model wants to take the storm into Luzon, south of Port San Vincente at 12Z Friday October 23.  The US Navy NOGAPS model wants to run the storm between Bataan and Port San Vincente.  The official track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center splits this narrow difference in between.  It appears to me that they both have a tropical cyclone making landfall with a central pressure of around 982 mb or so, which is relatively speaking, not that low.  For that reason, the intensity forecast has been pulled back to about 90 kts (105 mph) at landfall.  While the slower forward motion means the storm makes a landfall a day later than previously forecast, it also means that the storm will be affecting the northern Philippines for over 24 hours.  The real problem with this storm will be the heavy rain potential.  Areas on the mountains on the western half of the Luzon province will be particularly vulnerable. 

Typhoon Lupit IR satellite loop-click more most recent loop

I’ve seen several different spellings for this storm.  I’ve seen Typhoon Lupin, Typhoon Lupid, and Typhoon Renali.  The last one is the name given in the western Pacific, which I can’t figure out because countries from all around the world contribute to the list of names used by the World Meteorological Organization, yet there is another list used by the locals.  What is particularly perplexing about this is that Lupit was the name provided by the Phillipines.  Anyway, in general, Typhoon Lupit has behaved itself and the forecast has been pretty verifiable.  The track did move north of the 20 degree N. Latitude line before beginning to move more westward and so as the ridge builds in to the north and starts to shove the storm more west-southwesterly it is doing so a shade later.  Hence, this is the reason for the forecast landfall point position just north of the previous landfall projections.  By and large though, its not a significant shift except that the greatest storm surge, seas and even winds would remain just offshore if the forecast track is verified.  But, its stilll several days away and so it would be wise for everyone on the northeastern part of Luzon to be prepared for the surge potential.  I would also keep my ears on if I were in Taiwan.  The fact that the storm has slowed down may allow for some other environmental factors that would cause the track to change significantly.

Total Precipitable Water Loop

The Total Precipitable Water loop is a good tool to view the motion of the storm.  Clearly you can see the move to the northwest and then west.  If you use the 20 degree N. Latititude line as a guide, it is also apparent that Typhoon Lupit has moved just south of due west in the latest images.  It is also clearly apparent that drier air  has surrounded the storm but in the later frames, the precipitable water reflectivity has increased.  Hence, it is possible that the storm may be getting into  a little better environment.  This would not suggest that the storm will get stronger, but instead the degradation process is probably over.  It still has a good looking structure and there is really nothing to suggest that this guy will just go away.  If it does not stay over Luzon for long and follows the track that will keep at least part of the circulation over water means that the re-intensification process once it leaves the Philippines area may be more problematic for Vietnam.  People forget that Vietnam was adversely affected by Ketsana and Parma.  As it is, Vietnam or southern China will be affected by a significant tropical cyclone.  But, its not totally out of the question that the storm may be stronger at its second landfall than the first.

Full Pacific Loop

Just as a sidelight, if you look at the full pacific satellite loop, you will notice another tropical cyclone south of Hawaii.  That is Tropical Storm Neki.  It is forecast to deepen into a Hurricane (or Typhoon though I think in the Central Pacific they are still Hurricanes) and move northwest.  It is forecast to become pretty formidable and it will be interesting to see how it affects the Midway Islands.

WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A
202310Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A 202330Z PGTW DVORAK T-
NUMBER VALUE OF 4.0/5.0. TY 22W IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE
NORTH. THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE OF THE TYPHOON HAS NOT YET FULLY
RECOVERED AFTER CONTENDING WITH A SLOT OF DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR AND
UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. HOWEVER, A LARGE EYE
FEATURE, THOUGH OBSCURED IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, REMAINS
EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING THE 202310Z
SSMIS PASS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASED BASED ON THE CURRENT
WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL FORECAST INTENSITY TREND AND
ASSOCIATED REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS HAVE
ALSO DECREASED, PARTICULARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, IN ANTICIPATION
OF A WEAKER STEERING FLOW THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
    B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANALYZED TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TYPHOON REPLACES THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENSION TO THE NORTH AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR TY 22W HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING DUE TO A SPLIT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
ONE SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE NOGAPS, GFDN, AND GFS,
DEPICTS A SLOWDOWN AND POLEWARD RECURVATURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRENGTHENING PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A SECOND SET OF SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE
ECMWF, JGSM, AND UKMET, SHOW THE TYPHOON CONTINUING WESTWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST BECOMES THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM. THIS SECOND SET OF SOLUTIONS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND JTWC FORECASTS, AND
IS SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF BOTH A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF TY 22W AND A ZONAL UPSTREAM MIDLATITUDE FLOW
PATTERN. THUS, THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THESE WESTWARD-
RUNNING MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE
FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY IF MODEL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES
SHIFT IN FAVOR OF THE SLOWER MOTION SCENARIO. LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48, WHEN THE STORM CIRCULATION WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH TERRAIN OVER NORTHERN LUZON.
    C. TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SLOW IN THE
TAU 96 TO TAU 120 EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AS THE WEAKENED CYCLONE REEMERGES
OVER WATER, FAVORABLY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION.//
NNNN

Global Warming Kills Filipinos! Broken Glass Deters Burglars! Frankie Shoots Johnny! October 15, 2009

This Pig and the Philippines Were Victims of Climate Change, Not a Typhoon, According to the Philippines President

Tropical Storm 22 Forecast Track Creates Typhoon Lupit and Sends it to the Philippines

CLICK HERE For a more recent update on Typhoon Lupit, 

Even though US news media outlets have largely been silent on the subject, the Philippines suffered from the effects of two tropical cyclones over two weeks time.  One of those storms, Typhoon Parma, came back for a second landfall on the island.  This was in the wake of Tropical Storm Ketsana. Together, the two storms took at least 710 lives in the Philippines and greatly damaged rice production, infrastructure and the Filipino economy in general.  As Parma made a final assault on Vietnam, heading near Hanoi, Philippines President Gloria Arroyo made a speech in which she asked for international aid.  Now, the UN tried to raise $74 million in funds but only got pledges for $19 million.  So, perhaps seeing that the international community wasn’t responding to the run-of-the-mill plea for help, the president is trying a new tactic to get some attention. She says that the Philippines is a victim of climate change and that, as victims, the Philippines is due compensation from the real culprits to their calamity,which is the rest of the world.  It will be interesting to see where this goes because if Arroyo is successful in this argument because, if she is, then other underdeveloped countries will be standing in line for compensation every time there is a weather related disaster.

Watch Typhoon Lupit Develop in Most Recent Loop

Perhaps she should hold off and wait for more evidence.  You see…there is another tropical cyclone developing.  The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts that tropical storm 22 will become Typhoon Lupit and strike the Philippines.  At this point, the Typhoon Lupit forecast track (if it were to become named) is currently oriented to hit almost the exact same spot that Typhoon Parma hit the Philippines.   Each storm name is provided by a different country and it’s ironic that Lupit was submitted by the Philippines.

The Tichenors

In another impoverished country, Snow White and I have friends who are doing missionary work.  I told you about how Bowen and Lindsey Tichenor sold everything that they owned, including raffling off their home, took their 3 small children and went to the Dominican Republic to build water purification facilities for the extremely impoverished people in that island nation.  They managed to avoid any strong tropical cyclones but, crime is a real problem.  They have an ingenious way to protect their home and family.  Outside the home they have spread broken glass to deter any night-time prowlers.  You can follow their updates on the Tichenor website or read an update in this PDF File:

TichenorN…pdf (2.0 MB)  You can also get on their facebook page or follow their exploits on Twitter.

A woman shot a man on this date in history the ballad about the shooting became an American classic, though it wasn’t too accurate.

Blind Fold too tight for Frankie?

On This Date in 1899, Frankie of Frankie and Johnny were lovers fame shot her boyfriend. But, her lover was named Allen, also called Albert, not Johnny. The woman in question was Frances Baker and the then 22-year-old was acquitted in the murder of her 17-year-old boyfriend in a self defense stance. She said that she shot him only when he came to her house and drew a knife to kill her. She had a silver plated pistol at her bedside and shot him. But, the song claims that she shot him when she found him with another woman. Baker said that she knew that he was seeing Alice Pryor but “never fussed with her about it.” She also said that the song had it wrong when it said that she shot him “root a toot-toot-toot three times.” She said it only took one shot.

What really got Baker upset about her infamy in song was that the song questioned her virtue, calling her a “queen sport.” She had to move from St. Louis to Omaha and then Portland but couldn’t get away from the negative publicity. The song was turned into a play and then a movie in 1936 and Baker sued Republic Pictures for the use of the song. In her 1942 trial, she said she didn’t wear diamonds like the movie portrayed and only had cotton dresses, not the fancy clothes portrayed in the movie. In the end, the more she told her story, the more convinced the jurors of the court became that the song wasn’t even about her. Even though her St. Louis neighbors said the song was indeed about her, Frances “Frankie” Baker lost the case and returned to Portland and in 1950 was committed to a mental institution and died at age 75 two years later. But…her efforts were for naught. St. Louis for a time billed itself as the “birthplace of Frankie and Johnny” and no one deterred singers from reciting the lyrics “he was her man, but he done her wrong.”

So, the songwriters and movie script writers got the story so wrong that even the court didn’t believe that the song was about Frances Baker. Seems that Baker did too good of a job convincing the court that she was wrongly portrayed in song, and it cost her $200,000. Then again….Johnny…or Albert…or Allen…wasn’t able to tell his side of the story.

Weather Bottom Line:  Told you the weather would suck on Wednesday and its not getting much better for the rest of the week and perhaps into Saturday.  Chilly and wet.  Wonder if the president of the Philippines would say we are victims of climate change.  I want compensation!

Parma Tracking Toward Vietnam; Philippines Short of Coffins; UN Short in Fund Raising October 13, 2009

Parma Satellite 1130Z 10.13.09

Philippines Flooding Slideshow

The final destination of the storm once known as Typhoon Parma is set.  The Parma forecast track takes it into Vietnam, south of Hanoi.  It regained intensity to tropical storm status over the past few days and moved across Hainan, which is a island province in China.  Bloomberg reports that 3 were killed there.  Parma has fallen back to a depression and will remain so as it moves into Vietnam.  The problem with this storm will be heavy rainfall.   The Vietnamese authorities are expecting a 4 meter (13 feet) surge and with the storm moving along at just 7 kph (10 mph)  I would expect that big rainfall totals can be expected in parts of Vietnam.

W. Pacific IR Satellite Loop

3 weeks ago, Tropical Storm Ketsana produced flooding and landslides in the Philippines that killed some 337 people.  It then went and killed scores more with more flooding in Vietnam and Southeast Asia. At least 163 died in Vietnam alone.  Then Typhoon Parma came to the Philippines a week later and destroyed crops as it moved northwest and then returned as a tropical storm and then a depression.  The resulting rains produced more devastating flooding and killed well over 200 more.  China View reports more than 600 have perished in the Philippines as a result of Ketsana and Parma.   Parts of the Philippines have been under deep, standing water for 3 weeks and officials are now concerned about the potential for disease.  Meanwhile, as they continue to find bodies in towns that  had been buried in landslides, there is a shortage of coffins and at least 200 have had to be imported.    I’ve reported on this calamity fairly frequently but the world seems to be more interested in other things.  The UN had made an appeal for $74 million in aid.  That is equivalent to about 1/4 of Alex Rodriguez total contract with the New York Yankees.  Yet, the BBC reports that the UN has only been able to secure $19 million of the $74 million in aid requested.  

Parma Forecast Track JTWC

 

WDPN33 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA)//
WARNING NR 64//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS PARMA HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH OF PARMA. CONVECTION REMAINS DEEPEST IN A SINGLE BAND,
WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE LLCC HAS REMAINED FREE OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH
A RECENT DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BAND, LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED LAND INTERACTION AFFECTING THE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THE CURRENT FORECAST DEVIATES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
REGARDS TO TRACK, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKING PARMA FURTHER
NORTH. THIS IS BASED PREDOMINANTLY ON PERSISTENCE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SOUTHERN TURN WHILE PARMA HAS CONTINUED TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. BASED ON THIS THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
TO THE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
    B. PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR, UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL IN VIETNAM. AS PARMA
TRACKS INLAND, THE TRACK WILL FLATTEN IN A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION,
AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER VIETNAM. MODEL GUIDANCE,
AS MENTIONED IN PARA 3.A., HAS NOT SHOWN SKILL IN FORECASTING THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. BASED ON THIS FACT, THE CURRENT
FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON THE PERSISTENT TRACK OF PARMA VICE THE
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL, THIS IS DUE TO THE POOR
REPRESENTATION OF PARMA IN MODEL FIELDS AS IT WEAKENS.//
NNNN

Typhoon Melor Leaves Japan Behind;Former Typhoon Parma Still Taking Filipino Lives October 8, 2009

Click on Image for most recent W. Pacific IR Loop

See latest storm info and story on rising death toll from Typhoon Parma-over 100 dead in Philippines CLICK HERE

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track

Typhoon Melor crossed the Japanese Island of Honshu relatively quickly but still brought very heavy rain and gusty winds.  At least three people lost their lives as a result of Typhoon Melor.  The forecast track for Typhoon Melor was pretty much on the money with a landfall early Thursday morning with winds topping at 139 kmh or 86 mph south of Nagoya, Japan.  The wave heights were some 9 meters, or 30 feet.  The Typhoon Melor prognastic reasoning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been consistent with the idea that the storm will quickly transform from a tropical cyclone into an extra-tropical storm as it continues to race to the northeast.  Due to its rapid movement, the effects of the storm will subside across Japan by the end of the day. It’s moving so rapidly that the JTWC has issued its final warning for Typhoon Melor.  Commuter train service was haulted Thursday morning in Tokyo but will be restored by the afternoon rush hour.  Toyota shut down plants for the day but operations should resume quickly.  Shipping interests also will be returning to normal as the seas begin to subside.  Hokkaido will feel the effects of Melor will persist even though its losing its tropical characteristics because the structure will not change the windy and heavy rain aspects of the storm.

Parma Forecast Track

Meanwhile, to the south, the remnant of Typhoon Parma (JTWC discussion) remains parked over the northern Philippines.  Early Thursday morning, convection began to explode over parts of the island as the storm center had drifted just off the northeastern coast of the nation.  Wednesday had been relatively benign an clean up operations began from Tropical Storm Ketsana over a week ago.  The heavy rain produced by now Tropical Depression Parma brought more landslides that killed at least 6 more people, including a man who was doing clean up work and also several small children who were buried in their homes.    The storm is expected to continue to linger over the Philippines throughout the day before it moves to the west and finally away from the drenched nation on Friday.  Thereafter, it should regain some strength as it moves toward Vietnam, which also suffered from flooding and deaths due to Tropical Storm Ketsana. 

Depression 21 Forecast Track

Meanwhile, if you look at the color enhanced infrared satellite loop above, you will notice two other areas of interest to the east-southeast of the Philippines that appear to be candidates for development.  The largest of the two is to the east of the Philippines and is showing up quite prominently on the satellite loop.  It has been designated Depression 21 and is forecast to have some development but the forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggests a more northward movement and it is not expected to affect land at this time.  However, to its south and east is another system that looks suspicious to me.  I’m sure the JTWC will begin issuing reports on it over the next 48-72 hours.