Former Typhoon Parma Tracking Away from Philippines Leaving Flooding and Over 100 Dead


Parma Finally Exiting Philippines click image for latest loop

Parma Finally Exiting Philippines click image for latest loop

For update, photos and video and rising Typhoon Parma Philippines death toll, CLICK HERE

Parma Forecast Track

Parma Forecast Track

The former Typhoon Parma Forecast Track is finally good news for Filipinos. (JTWC Discussion) The storm made landfall several days ago on the eastern coast of the northern Philippines causing flooding and more than a dozen deaths on top of the flooding and nearly 300 deaths brought less than a week before by Tropical Storm Ketsana.  It then drifted to the northwest of the island into the Luzon Strait.  About a week ago, I mentioned the possibility of further devastation from Parma as I had feared it would get caught in the flow of the bypassing Typhoon Melor.  It did that and for the last 3 days, it has been lurking over the islands.  It weakened on Wednesday but slipped just off the east coast and we noted here that the convection seemed to be blowing up again over the island just following the center’s emergence back over the ocean.  It wasn’t far off the coast, but far enough. 

7 Day Rain Totals NASA TRMM

7 Day Rain Totals NASA TRMM

Parma spent Thursday moving back to the west over the island and is now moving into the South China Sea and will continue to do so, regaining some strength to tropical storm status before moving into Vietnam in a few days. This is almost a certainty because high pressure is building in from China and it has to drive it that way and keep it moving.  But, Parma left its mark.  In the previous post, I noted that 6 had been killed in landslides.  The landslides in the mountainous areas increased and now the death toll in the Philippines from Typhoon Parma is over 100.  Many of the deaths were in Benguet Province.  Some 30 towns in Pangasinan  Province were flooded.  Many areas that were trying to begin recovery from Ketsana’s flooding are now under water again.  To the left is the NASA TRMM satellite depiction of the rain fall in the world wide tropical regions over the past 7 days. Note the heavy rain over the Philippines from Parma and Japan from Typhoon Melor.

Parma Satellite 2330Z 10.08.09

Parma Satellite 2330Z 10.08.09

WTPN33 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 046   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    —
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z — NEAR 16.6N 120.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 120.0E
    —
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z — 16.6N 119.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    —
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z — 16.8N 118.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    —
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z — 17.0N 116.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    —
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z — 17.3N 115.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    —
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z — 18.0N 112.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    —
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5… AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    —
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z — 18.2N 110.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    —
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z — 17.4N 106.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    —
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 119.8E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W
(PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER AND IS TRACKING WESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. AS
THE SYSTEM TRAVELS OVER WATER IT IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY SLOWLY
TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN VIETNAM AROUND
TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

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