Philippines spared from Typhoon Lupit and Probably so is everyone else. October 23, 2009

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track 12Z 10.23.09 Click Image for most recent update

Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop Click for most recent

Looks like an “I told you so” is in order.  When I looked at Typhoon Lupit before midnight EDT on October 22, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center had indicated that dry air had gotten into the circulation and so they downgraded Lupit to a Tropical Storm.   The forecast still called for the storm to linger just north of Luzon, Philippines for a few days until a trof developed in a weakness in the ridge to the north and then it would pick up the storm and take it north.  I had noted last night that I had observed on the Total Precipitable Water loop that it appeared that Lupit had already begun moving north, though it was so few frames worth, I could not be certain that it wasn’t just a wobble. 

Total Precipitable Water Loop

Well, it wasn’t just a wobble.  It has indeed been drifting north and now north-northeast, or away from the Philippines.  The trof will continue to pick up the storm and it will slowly increase forward speed to the north-northeast and then northeast.  So much so that I doubt this guy ends up being any problems for anything beside shipping interest.    The storm simply took too much time to get to the Philippines.  It stuck around long enough for the steering environment to change and now it would appear that the Philippines, and everyone else is in good shape.    Or, you may say that prayers were answered.  Either way, it seems very unlikely that Lupit will be adversely affecting any major land masses, though coastal regions of Japan will probably monitor the storm closely until it has moved sufficiently north to northeast to eliminate any landfall potential there.

Dry Air Intrusion Shows Up Well on Water Vapor Imagery Loop

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR
039//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON A 230937Z WINDSAT AND 231006Z SSMI IMAGE. BASED ON THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) IS STILL MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE, AND BASED ON PERSISTENCE
OF THE IMAGERY, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE
LLCC HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED AND DISORGANIZED. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE JET HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF LUPIT, CAUSING DRY AIR
INTRUSION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO
VISIBLE IN THE IMAGERY, IS NOW LOCATED OVER TAIWAN AND IS BRIEFLY
ALLOWING TS 22W TO FORM A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THIS CHANNEL
APPEARS TO BE HELPING TS 22W TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY IN LIGHT OF
THE DRY AIR ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. LUPIT IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).

I Told You So!

3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED TO A NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK AS THE STR TO THE EAST OF LUPIT
HAS STARTED TO ENHANCE, BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.
THE TRACK SPEEDS REMAIN SLOW AS THE STR HAS ONLY STARTED TO BUILD.
    B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE, THE TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF LUPIT
CONTINUES TO INTRUDE UPON THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM AT THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 HOWEVER, WBAR, ECMF AND GFS SHOW THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY
UNDER THE CURRENT WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION COULD
POSSIBLY LEAD TO DISSIPATION OF THIS SYSTEM MORE QUICKLY THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON A SLOW TRACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING. INCREASING INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
ELEMENT IN THE WEAKENING OF TS 22W.//
NNNN

Typhoon Lupit Forecast and Behaviour Should Provide Optimism for Philippines October 23, 2009

Western Pacific IR Color Loop click for latest

For update on brighter Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track CLICK HERE

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track JTWC

The Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track scenario isn’t much changed from the previous post. It’s not even a Typhoon any longer.  While I think in the end, the data reflects potentially a much more positive outlook for the Philippines, Filipinos remain concerned about Typhoon, now Tropical Storm, Lupit.  And they should e concerned, but optimistic.  Really, there are very weak steering currents and I think its been drifting WSW mainly due to its own forward momentum.  The official forecast has it drift down toward Bataan on the northern edge of Luzon.  Then it kinda drifts just off the northern coast in the Luzon Strait.  I had noted yesterday that I thought that I saw some dry air within Lupit and now the JTWC makes note of that dry air which is responsible for further weakening.  The intensity of the storm is not really the issue.  The issue is rain.  If this scenario plays out, then the center of circulation stays just offshore and very heavy rains could persist over parts of Luzon for about 72 hours or so.  The flooding issue has always been the concern. 

TRMM 3 hour rainfall click for latest

Now, I had mentioned yesterday a weakness in the ridge to the north with the center over China getting broken down.  The JTWC suggests that a trof will plow through the flow and create a nice channel to the north of Lupit.  That would cause the storm to be influenced north and then race northeast.   That may put it onto a course for Japan similar to Typhoon Melor but I suspect that the turn would be sharp enough and early enough to keep the storm east of Japan.  I looked at the NASA TRMM satellite imagery and it indicates that the area in the ocean just northeast of the Philippines has gotten over 4 inches of rain in the past 24 hours.  So, from that simple comparison, it is possible that the Philippines could be receiving at least 3-5 inches of rain per day while the storm loiters offshore and right now, it would seem safe to assume the current forecast reasoning would keep the influence of Lupit on Luzon for about 3 days. 

Now, there is perhaps some good news.  I once had a colleague who told me of a professor that he had who reminded him all the time that the computer models were, in the end, just a piece of paper.  I had a professor, Dr. Norman K. Wagner, who used to say that as forecasters we often forget to look out the window and see what is really  happening.  Well, if you look at the Total Precipitable Water Loop (TPW) below, you can see that it would appear the storm may be drifting north already which would suggest that it was already getting influenced by a weakness in the ridge to the north.  This is my observation as of 23:38  EDT on Thursday.  It could just be a wobble.  But if it is an indication that it has started some movement northward, then Luzon may be in luck.  We’ll have to wait and see, but the 00Z 10.23.09 JTWC update will probably reflect this change.  If I had to bet, I’d say that Luzon will probably fare not nearly as badly as it once appeared it would.  But, no one will rest until Lupit is gone.

Total Precipitable Water Loop

WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR
037//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE FIX AND THE 222149Z MICROWAVE FIX FROM PGTW.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN IMPACTED BY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY
AIR INTRUSION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE DRY AIR CROSSING OVER LUZON IS
BEGINNING TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER, CAUSING A FURTHER DISRUPTION
IN ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION. A RECENT 222245Z SSMIS PASS
SHOWS THAT THE WESTERN BANDING AND THE WESTERN WALL OF THE EYE ARE
SEVERELY IMPACTED BY DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
TS 22W CONTINUES TO TRACK IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND THE STR TO THE EAST. AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF THE REGION DEPICTS A WEAK FINGER OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVELS IS STILL EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF TS 22W. THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO SLOW AS
IT GETS DEEPER INTO AN ILL DEFINED STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT IS
STILL TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE FINGER.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWING BEFORE EVENTUALLY
LOITERING IN THE STRAIT OF LUZON THROUGH TAU 72. THE PASSAGE OF A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AROUND TAU 6 THROUGH 12 WILL CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK A BIT MORE POLEWARD AS THE FINGER OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH ERODES SLIGHTLY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, THE
SYSTEM WILL RESUME DRIFTING TOWARDS THE WEST. NUMERICAL MODELS
REMAIN INCONSISTENT. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE FINGER OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER,
NOGAPS, GFDN, ECMWF, AND UKMO NOW TRACK THE SYSTEM MUCH SLOWER
THROUGH TAU 72, AND THEN TRACK THE SYSTEM ERRATICALLY AFTER TAU 72.
THE MODELS ARE STILL UNSTABLE, AND THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANALYZED FINGER OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE VERY PROBABLE SCENARIO OF THE SYSTEM TURNING POLEWARD BY TAU 24
AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE FLOW REMAINS AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO IN RESPONSE TO THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST, OR REORIENTATION OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE
FINGER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES BACK TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN THE FACE OF DRY AIR
AND INTERACTION FROM LAND, THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN TO THE POINT THAT
IT IS STEERED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND TRACK INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA.//
NNNN

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track Highly Uncertain; Philippine Flooding Threat Remains October 22, 2009

Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop-click for latest images

For updated information regarding Typhoon Lupit and the Philippines CLICK HERE

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track

Within the previous post, I made the following comment regarding the Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track: “I would also keep my ears on if I were in Taiwan.  The fact that the storm has slowed down may allow for some other environmental factors that would cause the track to change significantly.”  What I was talking about is that the forecast track that has been so consistent for so long with a landfall for the northern Philippines was based on the assumption of the storm maintaining a consistent forward motion.  I had noted that Typhoon Lupit was slowing down.  The problem with that is that as it slows down, it allows for the increasing potential that the steering mechanisms will change.  That appears to have happened.  The models,which had been tightly packed are now all over the place.  It is no longer a probability that Typhoon Lupit strikes the Philippines but instead just one of a number of possibilities.  There is even the real possibility that this storm hits nothing; that is curves north of the Philippines, stays east of Taiwan and gets picked up in the flow such that it races northeast off the Japan coast.  But again, that is but one possibility. 

Typhoon Lupit Water Vapor Loop

As it stands now, the official track takes Typhoon Lupit just along the northern coast of Luzon at a very slow pace if not nearly stationary.  That would be potentially very bad as the center of circulation would stay offshore and heavy rain potential for over 48 hours over Luzon could be extremely problematic.  I would almost venture to say that this is a worse scenario than a direct quick hit and passage.  But, if you read the forecast reasoning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center below, you can read the number of times that they speak of uncertainty.  The reason for that is that, as previously stated, the models are all over the place.  There are indications that the steering ridge to the west over China is eroding.  That would tend to support the models contention that the ridge over the Pacific will become more dominant with its influence.  Think of it as a weakness between ridges and if that is the case, then the storm will want to go poleward between the ridges in that  weak channel.  But, the potential problem lies in the time it takes for that weak channel to develop.  Until it does, the storm will sorta drift around in a quasistationary state until the steering currents get more established.  That is what the early morning forecast track on October 22 reflects. 

Total Precipitable Water Loop

This is no longer a forecast of high confidence.  The Philippines is still not out of the woods.  But, Taiwan and Japan face a possible threat.  I had noted that there seemed to be some dry air within the storm that may inhibit intensification.  The JTWC, however, notes dry air to the northwest but reports that the Total Precipitable Water imagery does not indicate that dry air has gotten into the flow. If the storm does in fact have enough momentum to take it down toward the Philippines before it begins to drift, the JTWC feels like there is some chance for an increase in intensity but it is almost unthinkable for this to get anywhere close to its former super typhoon status.  I would think that the biggest concern for Luzon will be rainfall and the proximity of the storm to the coast when it does become quasistationary.  If this guy lingers around too long, it may get killed by some unforseen outside influence.  So many possibilities and so many questions.

 

WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
A SYSTEM WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TRANSITIONING BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND THE STR TO THE WEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, BUT PRECIPITABLE
WATER DOES NOT YET SHOW DRY AIR INTRUSION. POSITION IS BASED ON
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. INTENSITY IS BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
RJTD AND KNES.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE STRAIT OF LUZON WITH THE VERY PROBABLE SCENARIO OF A POLEWARD
TURN.
    B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND LOITER IN THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND THE STR TO THE WEST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON. THE FURTHER
WEST THE SYSTEM TRACKS, THE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE THE STR TO THE WEST
BECOMES. THE WESTERN RIDGE, HOWEVER, IS BEING ERODED BY DRY,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A DOMINANT
INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM IN THE EARLY TAUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS ERRATIC, A COMMON INDICATOR OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
UNTIL THEY STABILIZE, NOT A LOT OF CREDIBILITY IS BEING PLACED ON
THE MODELS. CURRENTLY, THE MAJORITY OF AIDS HAVE THE SYSTEM MAKING A
SUDDEN POLEWARD TURN BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24; PRESUMABLY THEY HAVE
THE STR TO THE EAST BECOMING THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM.
CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE REGION DOES NOT REVEAL A CLEAR
PICTURE OF THE SYNOPTIC STEERING FLOW, LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAK
ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST PRESENTS THE SYSTEM TRACKING VERY SLOWLY
IN THE ILL DEFINED STEERING FLOW.
   C. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON, IT IS
EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS INFLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY, AND SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
POLEWARD TURN DURING THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT-WAVE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
THERE REMAINS A VERY LIKELY CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE PICKED UP
BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU
12 AND TAU 36, IN WHICH CASE IT WILL TURN POLEWARD AND START TO
ACCELERATE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. //
NNNN

Weaker Typhoon Lupit Track Focus Remains on Luzon, Philippines. Back to Bataan? October 21, 2009

Typhoon Lupit 23:30Z 10.20.09

For a more recent update on the changing forecast track of Typhoon Lupit CLICK HERE

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track

The Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track and intensity forecast remains fairly consistent.  However, the timing of the landfall has been pushed back somewhat.  The GFS model wants to take the storm into Luzon, south of Port San Vincente at 12Z Friday October 23.  The US Navy NOGAPS model wants to run the storm between Bataan and Port San Vincente.  The official track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center splits this narrow difference in between.  It appears to me that they both have a tropical cyclone making landfall with a central pressure of around 982 mb or so, which is relatively speaking, not that low.  For that reason, the intensity forecast has been pulled back to about 90 kts (105 mph) at landfall.  While the slower forward motion means the storm makes a landfall a day later than previously forecast, it also means that the storm will be affecting the northern Philippines for over 24 hours.  The real problem with this storm will be the heavy rain potential.  Areas on the mountains on the western half of the Luzon province will be particularly vulnerable. 

Typhoon Lupit IR satellite loop-click more most recent loop

I’ve seen several different spellings for this storm.  I’ve seen Typhoon Lupin, Typhoon Lupid, and Typhoon Renali.  The last one is the name given in the western Pacific, which I can’t figure out because countries from all around the world contribute to the list of names used by the World Meteorological Organization, yet there is another list used by the locals.  What is particularly perplexing about this is that Lupit was the name provided by the Phillipines.  Anyway, in general, Typhoon Lupit has behaved itself and the forecast has been pretty verifiable.  The track did move north of the 20 degree N. Latitude line before beginning to move more westward and so as the ridge builds in to the north and starts to shove the storm more west-southwesterly it is doing so a shade later.  Hence, this is the reason for the forecast landfall point position just north of the previous landfall projections.  By and large though, its not a significant shift except that the greatest storm surge, seas and even winds would remain just offshore if the forecast track is verified.  But, its stilll several days away and so it would be wise for everyone on the northeastern part of Luzon to be prepared for the surge potential.  I would also keep my ears on if I were in Taiwan.  The fact that the storm has slowed down may allow for some other environmental factors that would cause the track to change significantly.

Total Precipitable Water Loop

The Total Precipitable Water loop is a good tool to view the motion of the storm.  Clearly you can see the move to the northwest and then west.  If you use the 20 degree N. Latititude line as a guide, it is also apparent that Typhoon Lupit has moved just south of due west in the latest images.  It is also clearly apparent that drier air  has surrounded the storm but in the later frames, the precipitable water reflectivity has increased.  Hence, it is possible that the storm may be getting into  a little better environment.  This would not suggest that the storm will get stronger, but instead the degradation process is probably over.  It still has a good looking structure and there is really nothing to suggest that this guy will just go away.  If it does not stay over Luzon for long and follows the track that will keep at least part of the circulation over water means that the re-intensification process once it leaves the Philippines area may be more problematic for Vietnam.  People forget that Vietnam was adversely affected by Ketsana and Parma.  As it is, Vietnam or southern China will be affected by a significant tropical cyclone.  But, its not totally out of the question that the storm may be stronger at its second landfall than the first.

Full Pacific Loop

Just as a sidelight, if you look at the full pacific satellite loop, you will notice another tropical cyclone south of Hawaii.  That is Tropical Storm Neki.  It is forecast to deepen into a Hurricane (or Typhoon though I think in the Central Pacific they are still Hurricanes) and move northwest.  It is forecast to become pretty formidable and it will be interesting to see how it affects the Midway Islands.

WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A
202310Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A 202330Z PGTW DVORAK T-
NUMBER VALUE OF 4.0/5.0. TY 22W IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE
NORTH. THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE OF THE TYPHOON HAS NOT YET FULLY
RECOVERED AFTER CONTENDING WITH A SLOT OF DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR AND
UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. HOWEVER, A LARGE EYE
FEATURE, THOUGH OBSCURED IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, REMAINS
EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING THE 202310Z
SSMIS PASS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASED BASED ON THE CURRENT
WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL FORECAST INTENSITY TREND AND
ASSOCIATED REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS HAVE
ALSO DECREASED, PARTICULARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, IN ANTICIPATION
OF A WEAKER STEERING FLOW THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
    B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANALYZED TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TYPHOON REPLACES THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENSION TO THE NORTH AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR TY 22W HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING DUE TO A SPLIT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
ONE SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE NOGAPS, GFDN, AND GFS,
DEPICTS A SLOWDOWN AND POLEWARD RECURVATURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRENGTHENING PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A SECOND SET OF SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE
ECMWF, JGSM, AND UKMET, SHOW THE TYPHOON CONTINUING WESTWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST BECOMES THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM. THIS SECOND SET OF SOLUTIONS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND JTWC FORECASTS, AND
IS SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF BOTH A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF TY 22W AND A ZONAL UPSTREAM MIDLATITUDE FLOW
PATTERN. THUS, THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THESE WESTWARD-
RUNNING MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE
FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY IF MODEL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES
SHIFT IN FAVOR OF THE SLOWER MOTION SCENARIO. LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48, WHEN THE STORM CIRCULATION WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH TERRAIN OVER NORTHERN LUZON.
    C. TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SLOW IN THE
TAU 96 TO TAU 120 EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AS THE WEAKENED CYCLONE REEMERGES
OVER WATER, FAVORABLY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION.//
NNNN

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track Still Eyeballs Philippines, Though It Is Weaker October 20, 2009

Typhoon Lupit Infrared (IR) Satellite Loop

For a more recent update on the changing forecast track of  Typhoon Lupit, CLICK HERE

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track

Typhoon Lupit is no longer a Super Typhoon and probably will not be a Super Typhoon again.  However, the Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track remains fixated on Luzon, Philippines.  While it will not be a super typhoon, it will still be a formidable storm.  Most importantly, it will be producing heavy rain over the northern Philippines for at least 24 hours.  The potential for problems will be great, considering previous and existing conditions as a result of Typhoon Parma and Tropical Storm Ketsana.  From the Infrared Satellite image loop, you can see that the influence of the upper level trof to the north that had influenced the storm north has lifted out.  As a result, you can see the way the storm has now come back under the influence of a big ridge to the north that is taking it back on its drive to the west and will possibly build to the south enough that Lupin may get driven a bit south of due west, which would not be good for Manila. Also, the ridge will steer it right back into the same graveyard of Ketsana and Parma, Vietnam which also suffered from notable flooding.

Typhoon Lupit Water Vapor Loop (standard)

I had reported yesterday that the Joint Typhoon Warning Center  had suggested that the storm will begin to deteriorate due to the steering ridge to the north inhibiting the outflow to the north.  While that was possible, I felt as if the storm might begin to wind down for a different reason.  It’s tough for a tropical cyclone to maintain a category 5 level.  Everything has to remain perfect and thats hard to do as it moves into a different environment or its environment around it changes.  In this case, if you looked at the precipitable water loop yesterday, you could see that it appeared drier air was working its way around the circulation.  If you look at the standard water vapor imagery, you can see some dry areas to the west that may work its way in but the precipitable water loop really showed it more prominently.  In any event, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center now cites that as the reason for its current decline and decline in intensity in the future.  There are also eyewall replacement cycles to considier. 

Total Precipitable Water Loop (TPW MIMIC)

Now, what should be of concern is that the trend is for the storm to decline and then begin to intensify again just prior to landfall.  That actually makes sense.  Its going to take a few days for this dry air to work its way through the system and as it gets into the core will really mess it up.  After several days, it makes sense that it will begin to get its act together and my concern is that intensity forecasts are notoriously inaccurate in the longer term.  So, it is not out of the question that Lupit, if it begins to re-intensify, ends up being stronger than the current forecast indicates. In fact, if you look at the recent Total Precipitable Water  Loop  (TPW) it would seem that after a dry time around 19Z on the 18th, some of the lesser TPW levels to the west are getting squeezed out and the levels are starting to increase.  Over the next few days it will be interesting to witness how that situation evolves and will probably play a key role in the ultimate intensity of the storm.   As it stands, a 100 kt (115 mph)  typhoon is nothing to sneeze at and the biggest concern for most of the northern Philippines is the rain…and it will bring heavy rain. Remember, Ketsana was a tropical storm, not a typhoon.  Both the 12Z runs of the GFS and the NOGAPS put a landfalling significant tropical cyclone on the coast of the northern Philippines at 12Z on Thursday October 22 2009. Wave heights in the Luzon Strait are forecast to be running over 30 feet or about 9-10 meters.

Typhoon Lupit 130Z 10.20.09

WTPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 025
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 130.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 130.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 20.2N 128.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 19.9N 126.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 19.4N 125.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 18.7N 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 17.9N 121.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 17.4N 119.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 17.2N 116.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 130.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND
210300Z.//
NNNN

Super Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track Destination Unchanged: Luzon, Philippines October 19, 2009

Most Recent Western Pacific IR Satellite Loop

find a more recent update for Super Typhoon Lupit, CLICK HERE

Super Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track

As I had previously cautioned, Typhoon Lupit became Super Typhoon Lupit.  The Super Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track has the same result as previously mentioned though how it gets there got changed.  The end result is a landfall in Luzon, Philippines; the same area that was devastated by Typhoon Parma and Tropical Storm Ketsana just a few weeks ago. The country knows its coming but what to do about it is another question.    The route there got altered a bit as a trof split the big fat ridge that has been the primary steering mechanism for the storm.  The ridge expanded last week and finally drove Parma into  Vietnam.  All that happened was a little weakness developed and allowed Lupit to turn north-northwest.  But, that weakness in the ridge to the north is lifting up and out to the northeast.  The ridge is re-establishing itself and will be driving Typhoon Lupit on a westward, if not a west-southwest course over the next few days.  Both the GFS and NOGAPS feature a very strong tropical cyclone moving across the northern Philippines.  The only difference is the timing.  The GFS calls for a landfall around 18Z on Wednesday while the NOGAPS is slower with a Friday 6Z landfall. 

Total Precipitable Water MIMIC

Two things of interest besides the obvious grave threat to the Philippines.  First thing is that the big ridge will continue to drive this guy west, which means it won’t linger over Luzon like Parma did.  But, it also means that it will be driving a weakened, but still formidable tropical cyclone into Vietnam, which also suffered ill effects from both Ketsana and Parma.  The second thing is that the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center calls for a decrease in intensity from Super Typhoon to Typhoon status prior to landfall.  The reasoning (found below) is that the ridge steering the strom will be so strong as to impede the outflow on the north side of the storm.  

Typhoon Lupit Intensity Graph History

In my view, the reasoning is debatable but the conclusion is fairly sound.  It is extremely difficult for a tropical cyclone to maintain such a high intensity of 135 kt sustained winds (155 mph) with 165 kt gusts (190 mph).    The reason is that it needs to maintain all perfect conditions such as outflow, water temperature, dry air intrusion and other factors and that just doesn’t generally remain consistent for extended periods.  Now the JTWC only backs it down to 120 kts at landfall sometime after 00Z on Thursday (which is a convenient compromise between the NOGAPS and GFS solutions) and that is still extremely dangerous.  It will be interesting to see if it does indeed fall back to that extent without any other impediment than the one outlined by the JTWC.  The Precipitable Water Loop (Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery Total Precipitable Water) is a really interesting way to visualize the ridge to the north, the motion and potential dry air influences.

WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING
/NR 021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (AMI) SHOWS A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A LARGE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. POLEWARD OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING IN AMI AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AND A REGION OF CONFLUENT FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO EVIDENT IN AMI IS THE SYSTEM TURNING
TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW, AND INTENSITY
IS BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. STY 22W WILL COMPLETE A TURN TO THE WEST BY TAU 12 AND WILL
TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST TRACK, AND THIS WILL SLIGHTLY IMPEDE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO TYPHOON STRENGTH
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS OF CONSENSUS (WITH THE CONTINUED
EXCEPTION OF WBAR) IN A TIGHT CLUSTER THAT CLOSELY APPROXIMATES THE
FORECAST TRACK. TRACK SPEEDS ARE ALSO IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT.
    C. AFTER TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS
THE STR OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA BUILDS AND STEERS THE SYSTEM TO LOWER
LATITUDES. STY 22W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN LUZON
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 AND CROSS LAND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. A LOSS
IN INTENSITY CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK OVER WATER
AND BEGINS A PERIOD OF SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION.//
NNNN

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track Still Toward Northern Philippines, Could Be Super Typhoon October 17, 2009

Current Typhoon Lupit IR satellite loop

 For a more recent update regarding the changing forecast track of Typhoon Lupit, CLICK HERE

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track JTWC

The general forecast thinking regarding the Typhoon Lupit Track and Intensity is really not much changed.  The storm is looking pretty good on the satellite loop, though it does seem to have some deformation.  Both the GFS and US Navy NOGAP model takes the storm either skirting the northern coast of the Philippines or through the Luzon Strait.  As a side note, if you look at Vietnam, you see that it is still getting pummeled by the remnant of Parma.  Anyway, as far as Lupit is concerned, there is consensus regarding a deepening tropical cyclone making landfall midweek or at least affecting the Philippines at that time.  The official track seems to mirror the GFS, which handled Typhoon Parma pretty well.  The NOGAPS wants to keep the center just north of the northern coast of the Philippines but curiously it also decreases the intensity as it passes, which makes me think that the model is accounting for quite a bit of land interaction and may in fact have the eye go over land. 

 

 

WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTH OF PALAU AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TY LUPIT HAS DEVELOPED AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
EVIDENT IN A 160859Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS IN RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH
A BANDING EYE. LUPIT’S INTENSIFICATION TO TYPHOON STRENGTH HAS BEEN
ENABLED BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES THAT LUPIT IS
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE VERY NARROW (ONLY ABOUT TEN DEGREES, NORTH TO
SOUTH) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS ACCESS TO THE MID-LATITUDES DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. THE
CURRENT POSITION WAS PLACED, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, BETWEEN THE PGTW
AND RJTD FIXES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FORWARD TRACK SPEED AND
TAKE A SLIGHT POLEWARD TURN AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY WEST
OF KOREA, TEMPORARILY WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND CAUSES A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. WHILE TRACKING WESTWARD, LUPIT WILL REMAIN
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 100 J/KG/CM^2.
C. BY TAU 72, TY 22W SHOULD RESUME TRACKING WESTWARD AT AROUND
10 KNOTS AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REGAINS ITS STEERING INFLUENCE. AS LUPIT MAKES ITS
WAY THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE SEA, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, BY TAU 120 LUPIT SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION OVER NORTHERN LUZON. THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS
ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS WELL AS A RETURN TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
TOWARD NORTHERN LUZON IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. HOWEVER, THE AIDS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE TIMING OF INTERACTION AND THE DEGREE TO
WHICH THE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE TRACK OF 22W. OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS, THE NOGAPS AND GFS MODELS HAVE STARTED TO DEPICT AN
INCREASINGLY DEEPER TROUGH WHICH WOULD CAUSE TY 22W TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR A PERIOD OF ABOUT 12 HOURS BEFORE RESUMING A WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, THOSE PARTICULAR MODELS HAVE SHOWN A POLEWARD BIAS
THIS SEASON AND, IN CONSIDERATION OF THE CURRENT ZONAL MID-LATITUDE
PATTERN, THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY
ECMWF AND UKMO WHICH SLOW THE FORWARD TRACK SPEED CONSIDERABLY BUT
DO NOT DEPICT AS AGRESSIVE A TURN NORTHWARD.//
NNNN