Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track Still Eyeballs Philippines, Though It Is Weaker


Typhoon Lupit Infrared (IR) Satellite Loop

Typhoon Lupit Infrared (IR) Satellite Loop

For a more recent update on the changing forecast track of  Typhoon Lupit, CLICK HERE

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track

Typhoon Lupit is no longer a Super Typhoon and probably will not be a Super Typhoon again.  However, the Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track remains fixated on Luzon, Philippines.  While it will not be a super typhoon, it will still be a formidable storm.  Most importantly, it will be producing heavy rain over the northern Philippines for at least 24 hours.  The potential for problems will be great, considering previous and existing conditions as a result of Typhoon Parma and Tropical Storm Ketsana.  From the Infrared Satellite image loop, you can see that the influence of the upper level trof to the north that had influenced the storm north has lifted out.  As a result, you can see the way the storm has now come back under the influence of a big ridge to the north that is taking it back on its drive to the west and will possibly build to the south enough that Lupin may get driven a bit south of due west, which would not be good for Manila. Also, the ridge will steer it right back into the same graveyard of Ketsana and Parma, Vietnam which also suffered from notable flooding.

Typhoon Lupit Water Vapor Loop (standard)

Typhoon Lupit Water Vapor Loop (standard)

I had reported yesterday that the Joint Typhoon Warning Center  had suggested that the storm will begin to deteriorate due to the steering ridge to the north inhibiting the outflow to the north.  While that was possible, I felt as if the storm might begin to wind down for a different reason.  It’s tough for a tropical cyclone to maintain a category 5 level.  Everything has to remain perfect and thats hard to do as it moves into a different environment or its environment around it changes.  In this case, if you looked at the precipitable water loop yesterday, you could see that it appeared drier air was working its way around the circulation.  If you look at the standard water vapor imagery, you can see some dry areas to the west that may work its way in but the precipitable water loop really showed it more prominently.  In any event, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center now cites that as the reason for its current decline and decline in intensity in the future.  There are also eyewall replacement cycles to considier. 

Total Precipitable Water  Loop (TPW MIMIC)

Total Precipitable Water Loop (TPW MIMIC)

Now, what should be of concern is that the trend is for the storm to decline and then begin to intensify again just prior to landfall.  That actually makes sense.  Its going to take a few days for this dry air to work its way through the system and as it gets into the core will really mess it up.  After several days, it makes sense that it will begin to get its act together and my concern is that intensity forecasts are notoriously inaccurate in the longer term.  So, it is not out of the question that Lupit, if it begins to re-intensify, ends up being stronger than the current forecast indicates. In fact, if you look at the recent Total Precipitable Water  Loop  (TPW) it would seem that after a dry time around 19Z on the 18th, some of the lesser TPW levels to the west are getting squeezed out and the levels are starting to increase.  Over the next few days it will be interesting to witness how that situation evolves and will probably play a key role in the ultimate intensity of the storm.   As it stands, a 100 kt (115 mph)  typhoon is nothing to sneeze at and the biggest concern for most of the northern Philippines is the rain…and it will bring heavy rain. Remember, Ketsana was a tropical storm, not a typhoon.  Both the 12Z runs of the GFS and the NOGAPS put a landfalling significant tropical cyclone on the coast of the northern Philippines at 12Z on Thursday October 22 2009. Wave heights in the Luzon Strait are forecast to be running over 30 feet or about 9-10 meters.


Typhoon Lupit 130Z 10.20.09

Typhoon Lupit 130Z 10.20.09

WTPN31 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 130.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 130.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 20.2N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 19.9N 126.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 19.4N 125.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 18.7N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 17.9N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 17.4N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 17.2N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 130.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.// NNNN

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