Remant of Typhoon Mirinae Moving Toward Vietnam; Leaves 14 dead, flooding in Philippines November 1, 2009

Note Mirinae and Developing Cyclone east of Philippines in loop

Philippines Def. Minister visits Barangay Callos in Laguna (click for photo gallery)

Typhoon Mirinae is well west of the Philippines(see discussion below).  Reports are that the number of deaths in the Philippines rose to 14 with significant flooding reported in numerous villages.  See CNN story and video here.   I still can’t get any reports concerning activity at Mount Mayon so I suppose that means it is behaving itself.  There is another tropical cyclone (see discussion below) trying to get going to the east of the Philippines.  A ship near the center of circulation (about 60 nm away) some 595 km east of Manila reported a pressure of 1007.5 mb which really isn’t that low.  I have yet to see any data that supports any huge development but the JTWC still gives the prospects of significant development at “fair.”  Since rain is the issue, I suspect that the biggest problem with this system is its very existance, which was noted several days ago on models.  At that time, the models called for this system to move west over the Philippines and so far, the system is following the guidance.  It has been observed moving west at 12 knots.  While this is not slow, it is of concern because if it continues at this pace and course, it may bring a good chance of rain, perhaps heavy rain for a decent amount of time over the Philippines in the next couple of days.

Typhoon Mirinae Forecast Track (downgraded to Tropical Storm)

Typhoon Mirinae has been downgraded to a tropical storm as it moves across the South China Sea on a west southwesterly course.  The official track calls for it to continue to move toward Vietnam and make a second landfall on the coast northeast of Ho Chi Minh City.  Recently, microwave imagery indicated an eye trying to reform and winds have increased to 50 kts.  However, the environment seems in the future to not be too favorable and the most recent observations indicate that the newly formed eye is already deteriorating.  Therefore,  Vietnam can expect a weak to moderate tropical storm making landfall just prior to 12Z November 2.  The remnant of the storm will continue toward Phnom Phen in eastern Cambodia where it may dissipate.  The danger is not done though because quite often the remnant of a tropical cyclone can produce an abundance of rain, as exemplified by Tropical Storm Claudette in the 1970’s and more recently Tropical Storm Allison in the Houston area, both of which caused horrific flooding along the upper Texas Coast. 

Microwave loop shows some attempt at development by Mirinae

WDPN32 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING
NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (MIRINAE) WEAKENED TO 40 KNOTS AT
0600Z AND, ACCORDING TO RECENT DVORAKS FROM PGTW AND KNES, HAS
STRENGTHENED TO 50 KNOTS MORE RECENTLY. A 010955Z SSMI 37H MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE, WHICH GENERALLY CORRESPONDS TO
A SYSTEM GREATER THAN 45 KNOTS. GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
THAT HAS BUILT OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THE INCREASED
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND THE MICROWAVE EYE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER, CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WARM SLIGHTLY AND THE CONVECTION
HAS BEGUN TO FLARE. A 011126Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THAT
THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE HAS ALSO BEGUN TO DEGRADE, AND OPEN UP ON
THE SOUTH SIDE. THESE OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS
INTENSIFICATION IS SHORT TERM, AND DUE POSSIBLY TO DIURNAL EFFECTS.
THE STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH OF WEST TOWARDS VIETNAM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION DESCRIBED IN PARA 2.A. THE STORM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL WITH VIETNAM.
B.  TS 23W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS, WHICH WILL ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THESE FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
SLOW WEAKENING PRIOR TO MIRINAE MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN CAMBODIA THERE AFTER,
THOUGH THE REMNANT VORTICITY MAY TRACK FURTHER WESTWARD (AS
INDICATED BY MANY OF THE OBJECTIVE AID MEMBERS) INTO THE GULF OF
THAILAND OR BAY OF BENGAL. REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LLCC DOES NOT APPEAR
PROBABLE IN EITHER CASE.//
NNNN

ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZNOV2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010152ZNOV2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 010000Z, TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE) WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.9N 115.4E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH,
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 010300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6N
132.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 131.2E, APPROXIMATELY 595 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. AN OCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH SHIP, CALL SIGN
MELVILLE, REPORTED 12-KNOT EASTERLIES AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT
1007.5 MB AT 010000Z. MELVILLE IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ONE DEGREE
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
VARIOUS METSAT IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 312233Z SSMIS, INDICATES
PRONOUNCED CURVATURE OF THE CLOUDS PREDOMINATELY WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. DESPITE THIS SIGNATURE THE LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE AND THE CONVECTION IS VERY WEAK OVERALL. THE MOST RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA (NEARLY 18 HOURS OLD) INDICATE VERY STRONG
EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC, BUT LIGHT SUPPORTING WESTERLIES
TO THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A JET MAXIMUM TO THE
NORTH AIDING (EASTWARD) VENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

Typhoon Mirinae leaves flooding and death in Philippines as it heads to Vietnam October 31, 2009

Click on Image for most recent loop of Typhoon Mirinae

For latest news on death,flooding in Philippines and Mirinae track to vietnam(including microwave imagery) CLICK HERE

Click Image for latest Forecast Track of Typhoon Mirinae, now a tropical storm

Government run relief shelters in the Philippines are sure to swell in numbers from the effects of Typhoon Mirinae.   Typhoon Mirinae struck the main island of Luzon around 17 Z October 30 as the third typhoon to hit the Philippines in the past month.  Typhoon Lupit also brushed the northeast tip of the Philippines just a week ago.  Well over 100,000 Filipinos were still in shelters as a result of the flooding from Typhoon Ketsana and Typhoon Parma which struck back-to-back in late September and early October.  Many villages were still flooded from those two calamities that killed over 900.   The death toll in the Philippines from Typhoon Mirinae stands at a dozen and at least 15 villages are flooded with up to waist deep water.  This is on top of numerous villages that remained flooded from the previous storms.    The last report concerning Mount Mayon put the active volcano at a level two alert as just  prior to the landfall of Typhoon Mirnae, Mount Mayon had exhibited behaviour of increased activity.  Numerous earthquakes from the volcano accompanied minor eruptions of ash plumes but authorities had a dificult time making observations of a potential rising lava dome in the crater.

Watch 72hr loop of Total Precipitable Water Showing Movement of Typhoon Mirinae

Typhoon Mirinae has been downgraded to a tropical storm as it moves away from the Philippines at about 20 kts.  It is expected to continue moving west-southwest toward South Central Vietnam.  The official forecast calls for a second landfall just after 00Z November 2 a couple of hundred miles north of Ho Chi Minh City and continue towards Phnom Penh in Cambodia, though some models still call for a landfall a bit farther south to the east of Ho Chi Minh City.   A second tropical system has developed to the east of the Philippines and, while it is not expected to become a typhoon, the current track would take it over the Philippines in the next couple of days and would bring the threat of additional rainfall.  The system will be monitored for development.

Typhoon Mirinae Forecast: Philippines Landfall as Volcano Threatens Eruption October 30, 2009

Typhoon Mirinae Will Stirke the Philippines

Typhoon Mirinae 23:13Z Oct 29 Vis with low level wind barbs

Typhoon Mirinae will hit the Luzon province in the Philippines.  It’s possible that Mother Nature may also erupt a volcano at the same time.  The Typhoon Mirinae Forecast Track is very similar to that of Typhoon Ketsana.  The difference will be that it’s forward momentum will continue and therefore will not remain over the Philippines for an extended period of time. 

Typhoon Mirinae Forecast Track click for most recent map

The Typhoon Mirinae Forecast Track takes it into the Philippines almost due east of Manila and it re-emerges in the South China Sea almost due west of Manila.  There is some sense of continuity with the computer models.  The NOGAPS calls for a landfall at just around 12Z October 30 as a tropical cyclone with a central pressure a shade less than 992 mb.  The NOGAPS suggests that the center of circulation will be just west of Manila by 06Z October 31 with a pressure of something less than 1000 mb.  Now, the GFS is a bit different as it wants to weaken the storm prior to landfall to less than 1000 mb and has it exit as a 1004 mb low.  It too calls for a landfall in the neighborhood of 12Z October 30 with it moving offshore west of Manila by 6Z October 31.  A few days later, Mirinae is forecast to weaken somewhat over colder water in the South China Sea before making a second landfall in Vietnam before moving into Cambodia.   

Watch 72hr loop of Total Precipitable Water Showing Movement of Typhoon Mirinae

The official forecast track as of 00Z October 30 from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center calls for Typhoon Mirinae to make landfall east of Manila sometime between 12z and 18Z on October 30 and has it offshore of Manila by about 02Z October 31.  Other models must call for the faster speed as the NOGAPS and GFS call for the storm to be over land for about 18 hours whereas the boys at the JTWC are thinking more along the lines of 12 hours.  The folks in the Philippines will be hoping that the JTWC is correct because the faster pace will reduce the time of heavy rain over the island.  Still, several hours of heavy rain will be in the cards and winds will initially be running around 90 kts (100 mph) at landfall with higher gusts.  The storm’s forward speed will also mean that typhoon strength winds will be felt by everyone in the path of the center of circulation because, though weakened, it will still be a minimal typhoon when it moves back offshore in all liklihood.  Over 100,000 Filipinos remain in evacuation shelters from the effects of Typhoon Ketsana and Typhoon Parma which collectively killed over 900 people.  Many have been affected by the rapid spread of the disease known as Leptospirosis.  The government is warning for the potential for flooding and landslides so more people have been evacuated from vulnerable locations. 

Keep Up with latest 3 hour rainfall estimates from NASA's TRMM

If that is not enough for the Philippines….as Typhoon Mirinae makes landfall, Mount Mayon in the Philippines is making noises and there is a fear that Mount Mayon, the most active volcano in the Philippines may erupt while Mirinae is over the island or shortly thereafter.    The active volcano is one of many volcanic peaks in the Philippines and has been responsible for well over a dozen volcanic earthquakes and has begun spewing ash and sulpher dioxide into the air.  It last had an ash eruption on September 15.  Officials have been trying to get a look at the crater to determine if the dome forming there is indeed a lava dome or if its simply a case of magma below the surface pushing old rock to the surface.  Trouble is, they can’t make aerial examinations of the crater on top of Mount Mayon due to cloud cover and with the advance of Typhoon Mirinae, which the Philippines weather authorities designated as Typhoon Santi (why they have different names is a mystery to me), they won’t be able to make any observations.  So, Philippines Volcano Monitoring authorities  issued a level 2 alert warning the residents around the volcano and are enforcing a strict ban on people entering a zone around Mayon. 

Mayon one of many volcanoes in the Philippines

If they issue a  level 3 alert, then some 30,000 residents around the volcano will have to be evacuated.  There is great concern here because Mayon’s crater holds over 200,000 cubic feet of rocks.  There is fear of an eruption with lava flows.  Even of greater concern is the threat of a Lahar,the fast moving flow of mud, water and perhaps lava that can sweep down from volcanoes.  Heavy rains may enhance that threat and official say that in a worst  case scenario, they may have to evacuate some 300,000 people from Lahar zones.   However, Mount Mayon is pretty far south of the forecast landfall location.  Should Mirinae make landfall as the JTWC suggests, then the greatest rainfall should be well north of Mount Mayon.

WDPN32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON MIRINAE HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND SUSTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. 
THOUGH THE CYCLONE STILL HAS SOME WESTWARD BLOWING CONVECTION, 
INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A SMALL 
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT HAS ENABLED CONTINUED RADIAL OUTFLOW. WHILE 
MIRINAE WAS PREVIOUSLY MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN 
THAT MADE POSITIONING USING INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY DIFFICULT, 
IT HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO DEVELOP MORE OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. 
THEREFORE, IN COMBINATION WITH THE 292259Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE 
IMAGE, THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. 
SIMILARLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK 
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES OF 90 KNOTS. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. 
    B. TYPHOON MIRINAE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL LUZON AROUND TAU 18 
AND SLOW SLIGHTLY (BY APPROXIMATELY 2-3 KNOTS) IN FORWARD TRACK 
SPEED WHILE DECREASING BY 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN INTENSITY. AFTER TAU 24, 
MIRINAE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ON A WESTWARD TRACK 
AND CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY 
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF 
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS (MID-LEVELS) AND 
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INDUCED BY AN EARLY-SEASON COLD SURGE.
    C. MIRINAE WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH-CENTRAL VIETNAM JUST 
AFTER TAU 72 AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE BY TAU 96. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. HOWEVER, SOME OF 
THE MODEL AIDS, INCLUDING THE JAPANESE SOLUTION, TAKE THE SYSTEM 
JUST SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES AND TOWARDS HO CHI MINH CITY, 
VIETNAM.//
NNNN

Typhoon Mirinae Forecast Track Points to Luzon, Philippines Landfall at end of week October 29, 2009

Typhoon Mirinae Appears Certain to Strike the Philippines

For news of flooding, deaths in Philippines and Mirinae track to Vietnam CLICK HERE

Typhoon Mirinae Forecast Track click for most recent map

The Typhoon Mirinae Forecast Track remains generally unchanged as does the intensity.  It continues to move west at a pretty good clip and that may end up being a good thing for the Philippines.   The JTWC forecast track has been nudged a tad farther south than previous runs which would send the typhoon across the island closer to Manila.  While Luzon really can’t handle a lot of rain, it’s going to get it as well as winds along the coast perhaps as high as 105 to 110 mph or 95 kts with higher gusts.  With the forward momentum of Mirinae, I suspect that whatever the maximum storm surge in that area with this type of storm will be likely.  The biggest difference between the NOGAPS and GFS models is the timing.  Over 117,000 Filipinos remain in shelters as a result of Typhoon Parma and Tropical Storm Ketsana.  So, the government of the Philippines is warning the potential for  landslides and flooding.  The government is particularly concerned because All Saints Day, November 1, is traditionally a day when Filipinos visit cemeteries to remember ancestors.

Typhoon Mirinae Satellite Loop Click for most recent loop

The NOGAPS advertises a typhoon moving at a pretty good pace with a landfall outlined just prior to 12Z on Friday October 30.  It also favors a landfalling tropical cyclone with a central pressure a shade less than 996 mb.  The GFS on the other hand doesn’t come up with as robust a system as the NOGAPS.  The central pressure at landfall is something between 996 mb and 100 mb.  If that is verified, I find it hard to determine how a storm with that level of pressure could support the JTWC contention that a 95 kt typhoon will strike the Philippines.  My experience tells me that pressures that high generally does not support winds of 95 kts unless it was a major tropical cyclone that was winding down and even that is not evidence of support.  Falling winds mean that the pressure cannot support that wind level.    Other than that, the GFS is much slower than the NOGAPS with a landfall with a landfall not coming until just after 00Z on Saturday Oct 31.  That is a big difference because if Mirinae moves that slowly then it would be dropping heavy rain on the Philippines for many hours longer than the NOGAPS solution. 

Typhoon Mirinae Water Vapor Loop click for most recent loop

The typhoon has been moving at a steady speed and so unless something shows up to slow its forward speed then it seems reasonable that the JTWC forecast of having the core of the storm over Luzon for less than 24 hours is very plausible.  On the other hand, that also means that the fine folks of Manila and other parts of the Philippines will probably experience pretty decent winds….maybe even typhoon force…for the duration of the storm because Mirinae just wouldn’t have time to fall apart…but it will weaken.  This storm got stronger than anticipated due to a trof to the north that was enhancing the outflow to the north.  Interestingly, that trof was actually created from the remnant of Typhoon Lupit which moved northeast offshore of Japan, turned extratropical and created a front trailing off from it.  With that feature moving out,  there isn’t any real mechanism that would help enhance the intensity substantially.  The only thing that will help it get stronger is an increasing outflow aloft, but that will be offset somewhat by a little bit of vertical shear.  The JTWC notes that the shear has already messed up the visibility of the eye. 

Watch 72hr loop of Total Precipitable Water Showing development of Typhoon Mirinae

If one assumes a rapid movement across the Philippines, then one might assume that the storm will not deteriorate that much over land and will emerge in the South China Sea in good shape.  So good that it may redevelop.  But, sea surface temperatures in the central South China Sea have dropped off a bit due to a recent shot of unseasonably cold air in the area.  So, the JTWC forecast reflects that situation by reducing the intensity of the storm as it approaches Vietnam.  Mirinae may fall to tropical storm status before landfall.  However, Vietnam also suffered from Typhoon Ketsana and Typhoon Parma, though Parma was closer to Hanoi.  In any event, the ground in Vietnam is pretty saturated so if they get a tropical storm instead of a typhoon, it is really immaterial as the forward motion will be the key for Vietnam.  Vietnam suffered over 3/4 of a billion US dollars just from Ketsana.   If the storm slows down once it’s inland over SE Asia, then excessive rainfall can be anticipated.  The thing that everyone wants is for the storm to keep moving. 

WDPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE) HAS INTENSIFIED TO 90 KNOTS AND
MAINTAINED A WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS EVIDENCE OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS
CAUSED MIRINAE TO LOSE ITS EYE-LIKE FEATURE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STILL HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS WELL AS ACCESS TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15
TO 20 DEGREES EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED WITH
HIGH CONDIFENCE ON POSITION FIXES BY RJTD AND PGTW AND IS SUPPORTED
BY A 282127Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. THE TYPHOON WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL RETAIN RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENABLING EXHAUST
INTO THE MID-LATITUDES, AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED, MAINLY DUE
TO THE LACK OF A STRONG (POLEWARD) OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE TUTT MENTIONED IN PARA 2.A. MIRINAE IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE PHILIPPINES AND WEAKEN JUST BEFORE
TAU 48.
C. BEFORE TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT LUZON INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
AS A MUCH-WEAKENED TYPHOON. A COOLER POOL OF SEA SURFACE TEMP-
ERATURES IN THE CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA, MINIMAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES AND DIMINISHED POLEWARD EXHAUST WILL PROMOTE STEADY
WEAKENING. AN EARLY SEASON COLD SURGE WILL ALSO AID IN WEAKENING THE
SYSTEM CLOSER TO TAU 96. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. THEY ALSO SHOW A GROWING TREND TOWARDS
A MORE SOUTHWESTERN TRACK IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.//

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Typhoon Mirinae Forecast Track Toward Flood Plagued, Disease Infested Portion of Philippines October 28, 2009

Typhoon Mirinae IR Color Satellite-Click image for most recent loop

Get most recent update on Typhoon Mirinae forecast track and latest on potential for volcano eruption as Mirinae strikes the Philippines, CLICK HERE

Watch 72hr loop of Total Precipitable Water Showing development of Typhoon Mirinae

Typhoon Mirinae was born from the developing Tropical Storm 23W, as expected.  The storm has been moving along at a pretty good clip. So far it has tended to move faster than the general forecast.  I suspect that is why the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has gone along with the early forecast landing in the Philippines at around 12Z October 30 that is brought out by the NOGAPS model.  The GFS is remarkably similar to the NOGAPS in the track and intensity with both advertising a tropical cyclone with a central pressure somewhere between 992 and 1000 mb near the same location in the Luzon province that Typhoon Parma struck.  But, the GFS wants to take the storm into the Philippines somewhere between 12z and 18z October 31.  Given the persistent forward speed and little evidence that there is much out there to slow this guy down, the early forecast landfall is probably a fair bet. 

Typhoon Mirinae Forecast Track Updates Regularly-Click on Image

Tropical Storm 23W not only has been moving faster than forecast, it also has developed faster than forecast.  It was not anticipated by the JTWC to become Typhoon Mirinae until 12Z October 28 but had done so by 18Z October 27.  That is not overly significant except that it is obviously in a upswing mode.   The risk here is that with the storm’s forward speed and the fact that its in an intensication process, odds are pretty high that the Philippines will be struck by a tropical cyclone that is intensifying, not weakening.  One thing that has been right on the money is the forecast track.  Typhoon Mirinae moved northwest south of Saipan near Andersen Air Force base  while it was still Tropical Storm 23W.  As anticipated,  the storm went a few hundred more miles on that course and now has taken a more westerly track.  The good news is that the forward speed that it is showing and that is forecast will mean that it would cross the Philippines in less than 24 hours.  That would tend to cut down on excessive rain, though very heavy rain in a short period of time can be expected. 

Typhoon Mirinae Vis Sat w/low level wind barbs 23:13Z 10.27.09

The  bad news is that Luzon cannot handle much in the way of heavy rain.  The storm flow will be slamming into the same mountainous regions that experienced mudslides from Typhoon Parma and Tropical Storm Ketsana and those mountains will do nothing but enhance the rainfall rates.  If the forecast holds and verifies, then Typhoon Mirinae will hit in almost the exact same spot at Typhoon Parma and will track due west near Manila, similar to Tropical Storm Ketsana.  Also, the forward momentum and expected maximum winds of 100 kts would create a pretty good storm surge to the right of the center of the landfall, which is something that did not occur with either Typhoon Parma or Tropical Storm Ketsana.  The flood ravaged Philippines is no where close to recovering from Parma and Ketsana as disease has now broken out in Luzon.  The World Health Organization is helping to try and control an outbreak of  leptospirosis and if Mirinae does as expected, the situation will do nothing but get worse.

Typhoon Mirinae Water Vapor Loop-click image for most recent loop

There is one more bit of bad news that could prove to be the biggest factor in the saga of the Philippines.  When I looked beyond the landfall time of Typhoon Mirinae, I noticed that the typhoon moves across the South China Sea into Vietnam, which means the exact same areas that got hit by Ketsana in both the Philippines and Vietnam will get nailed again and some of the areas affected in Vietnam by Parma will also get heavy rains and wind from Mirinae.  But, maybe more importantly I noticed another tropical cyclone right on the heels of Typhoon Mirinae.  It is not that well developed at only about 1008 mb.  But, both the NOGAPS and the GFS show this feature and it is forecast to track right into Luzon.  Often, a weak tropical cyclone can bring extremely heavy rains.  Since they are not well developed, they don’t necessarily follow typical steering trends and often times will slow down and fall apart over one area, dropping a lot of rain.  This scenario is many days away if it were to occur, but it is showing up on at least two models. So, its’ worth noting.

WDPN32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE) IS TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED TO 75 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD CURRENTLY SUPPORT INTENSITIES FROM 75 TO 90
KNOTS. THIS FORECAST IS PRIMARILY BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD
ESTIMATES. MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS SHOWN A WELL
DEFINED EYE HAS DEVELOPED, AND IS BEGINNING TO BE APPARENT IN
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AS WELL. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS
REMAINED WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH NORTH OF TY 23W THAT HAS STARTED TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST. STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN JAPAN IN THE UPPER
LEVEL HAS STARTED TO REPLACE THE TROUGH AS THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING ZONAL
FLOW HAS SUPPORTED THE RECENT INTENSITY CHANGE OBSERVED. RADIAL
OUTFLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE ANTI-CYCLONE
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF TY 23W, HAS MAINTAINED AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. TY 23W WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS LUZON
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WELL ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF MIRINAE. OUTFLOW
FROM THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ZONAL FLOW WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT CONTINUED RADIAL OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSIFICATION WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST, ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
    C. BEYOND TAU 72 MIRINAE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITH
LUZON, WEAKEN AND SLOW SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION, THEN
CROSS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AROUND TAU 96. AS THE SYSTEM RE-
CONSOLIDATES THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH TAU
120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FOLLOWING
FORECAST, EXCEPT WITH THE SPEED OF ADVANCE OVER LUZON. MODELS
SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO SLOW-DOWN AS TY 23W CROSSES OVER LUZON. THE
FORECAST INCORPORATES A DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED FROM TAU 72 THROUGH
120 BASED ON LAND INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.//
NNNN

Potential Typhoon Mirinae Making Early Threat to Philippines October 26, 2009

Western Pacific IR Satellite Loop (Tropical Storm 23W, developing Typhoon Mirinae)

For a more recent update on Typhoon Mirinae CLICK HERE

Tropical Storm 23W 1130Z 10.26.09 (Typhoon Mirinae)

While the Philippines escaped the wrath of Typhoon Lupit, Tropical Storm 23W is developing well east of the Philippines and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast not only develops it into Typhoon Mirinae, but also makes the storm intensity 100 kts as it moves into the Philippines almost due east of Manila at 12Z on October 31.  The ridge that had broken down enough to allow Lupit to scamper to the northeast, away from the Philippines has filled back in and is growing stronger.  As we saw with Typhoon Lupit, with several days before projected landfall, there can be many changes to the environment and also the steering currents.  So, this is not to be taken as Gospel.  However, the reasoning is sound and the storm is already developing and moving faster than intially anticipated.  The Philippines will certainly be on guard as any tropical cyclone activity in the region that remotely threatens the country needs to be taken seriously given the region will be slow to recover from the effects of Typhoon Parma and Tropical Storm Ketsana. Developing Tropical Storm 23W will be affecting Andersen Air Force Base,  south of Saipan, by 00Z October 27.

Tropical Storm 23W Forecast Track (typhoon mirinae)

WDPN32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W CONSOLIDATED FURTHER AS IT TRACKED AT
A FASTER THAN NORMAL RATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 260918Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES OF T2.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.  A 260000Z PGUM UPPER-AIR SOUNDING REPORTING EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 400 MB SUPPORTS CURRENT AND PROJECTED
STORM MOTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN.
    B. TS 23W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS DESCRIBED
IN PARA 2.A. THE STORM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO
TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72, AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, UP
TO 100 KNOTS, AS IT TRACKS OVER THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
THE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MINIMAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS LEFT
OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS AND TRACKS THE STORM BETWEEN GUAM AND SAIPAN.
WBAR REMAINS RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE AND EGRR STARTS TO THE LEFT UP TO
TAU 72 BEFORE IT VEERS TOWARDS THE MAIN PACK.//
NNNN

Philippines spared from Typhoon Lupit and Probably so is everyone else. October 23, 2009

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track 12Z 10.23.09 Click Image for most recent update

Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop Click for most recent

Looks like an “I told you so” is in order.  When I looked at Typhoon Lupit before midnight EDT on October 22, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center had indicated that dry air had gotten into the circulation and so they downgraded Lupit to a Tropical Storm.   The forecast still called for the storm to linger just north of Luzon, Philippines for a few days until a trof developed in a weakness in the ridge to the north and then it would pick up the storm and take it north.  I had noted last night that I had observed on the Total Precipitable Water loop that it appeared that Lupit had already begun moving north, though it was so few frames worth, I could not be certain that it wasn’t just a wobble. 

Total Precipitable Water Loop

Well, it wasn’t just a wobble.  It has indeed been drifting north and now north-northeast, or away from the Philippines.  The trof will continue to pick up the storm and it will slowly increase forward speed to the north-northeast and then northeast.  So much so that I doubt this guy ends up being any problems for anything beside shipping interest.    The storm simply took too much time to get to the Philippines.  It stuck around long enough for the steering environment to change and now it would appear that the Philippines, and everyone else is in good shape.    Or, you may say that prayers were answered.  Either way, it seems very unlikely that Lupit will be adversely affecting any major land masses, though coastal regions of Japan will probably monitor the storm closely until it has moved sufficiently north to northeast to eliminate any landfall potential there.

Dry Air Intrusion Shows Up Well on Water Vapor Imagery Loop

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR
039//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON A 230937Z WINDSAT AND 231006Z SSMI IMAGE. BASED ON THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) IS STILL MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE, AND BASED ON PERSISTENCE
OF THE IMAGERY, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE
LLCC HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED AND DISORGANIZED. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE JET HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF LUPIT, CAUSING DRY AIR
INTRUSION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO
VISIBLE IN THE IMAGERY, IS NOW LOCATED OVER TAIWAN AND IS BRIEFLY
ALLOWING TS 22W TO FORM A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THIS CHANNEL
APPEARS TO BE HELPING TS 22W TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY IN LIGHT OF
THE DRY AIR ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. LUPIT IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).

I Told You So!

3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED TO A NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK AS THE STR TO THE EAST OF LUPIT
HAS STARTED TO ENHANCE, BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.
THE TRACK SPEEDS REMAIN SLOW AS THE STR HAS ONLY STARTED TO BUILD.
    B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE, THE TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF LUPIT
CONTINUES TO INTRUDE UPON THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM AT THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 HOWEVER, WBAR, ECMF AND GFS SHOW THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY
UNDER THE CURRENT WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION COULD
POSSIBLY LEAD TO DISSIPATION OF THIS SYSTEM MORE QUICKLY THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON A SLOW TRACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING. INCREASING INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
ELEMENT IN THE WEAKENING OF TS 22W.//
NNNN

Typhoon Lupit Forecast and Behaviour Should Provide Optimism for Philippines October 23, 2009

Western Pacific IR Color Loop click for latest

For update on brighter Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track CLICK HERE

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track JTWC

The Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track scenario isn’t much changed from the previous post. It’s not even a Typhoon any longer.  While I think in the end, the data reflects potentially a much more positive outlook for the Philippines, Filipinos remain concerned about Typhoon, now Tropical Storm, Lupit.  And they should e concerned, but optimistic.  Really, there are very weak steering currents and I think its been drifting WSW mainly due to its own forward momentum.  The official forecast has it drift down toward Bataan on the northern edge of Luzon.  Then it kinda drifts just off the northern coast in the Luzon Strait.  I had noted yesterday that I thought that I saw some dry air within Lupit and now the JTWC makes note of that dry air which is responsible for further weakening.  The intensity of the storm is not really the issue.  The issue is rain.  If this scenario plays out, then the center of circulation stays just offshore and very heavy rains could persist over parts of Luzon for about 72 hours or so.  The flooding issue has always been the concern. 

TRMM 3 hour rainfall click for latest

Now, I had mentioned yesterday a weakness in the ridge to the north with the center over China getting broken down.  The JTWC suggests that a trof will plow through the flow and create a nice channel to the north of Lupit.  That would cause the storm to be influenced north and then race northeast.   That may put it onto a course for Japan similar to Typhoon Melor but I suspect that the turn would be sharp enough and early enough to keep the storm east of Japan.  I looked at the NASA TRMM satellite imagery and it indicates that the area in the ocean just northeast of the Philippines has gotten over 4 inches of rain in the past 24 hours.  So, from that simple comparison, it is possible that the Philippines could be receiving at least 3-5 inches of rain per day while the storm loiters offshore and right now, it would seem safe to assume the current forecast reasoning would keep the influence of Lupit on Luzon for about 3 days. 

Now, there is perhaps some good news.  I once had a colleague who told me of a professor that he had who reminded him all the time that the computer models were, in the end, just a piece of paper.  I had a professor, Dr. Norman K. Wagner, who used to say that as forecasters we often forget to look out the window and see what is really  happening.  Well, if you look at the Total Precipitable Water Loop (TPW) below, you can see that it would appear the storm may be drifting north already which would suggest that it was already getting influenced by a weakness in the ridge to the north.  This is my observation as of 23:38  EDT on Thursday.  It could just be a wobble.  But if it is an indication that it has started some movement northward, then Luzon may be in luck.  We’ll have to wait and see, but the 00Z 10.23.09 JTWC update will probably reflect this change.  If I had to bet, I’d say that Luzon will probably fare not nearly as badly as it once appeared it would.  But, no one will rest until Lupit is gone.

Total Precipitable Water Loop

WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR
037//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE FIX AND THE 222149Z MICROWAVE FIX FROM PGTW.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN IMPACTED BY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY
AIR INTRUSION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE DRY AIR CROSSING OVER LUZON IS
BEGINNING TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER, CAUSING A FURTHER DISRUPTION
IN ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION. A RECENT 222245Z SSMIS PASS
SHOWS THAT THE WESTERN BANDING AND THE WESTERN WALL OF THE EYE ARE
SEVERELY IMPACTED BY DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
TS 22W CONTINUES TO TRACK IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND THE STR TO THE EAST. AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF THE REGION DEPICTS A WEAK FINGER OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVELS IS STILL EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF TS 22W. THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO SLOW AS
IT GETS DEEPER INTO AN ILL DEFINED STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT IS
STILL TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE FINGER.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWING BEFORE EVENTUALLY
LOITERING IN THE STRAIT OF LUZON THROUGH TAU 72. THE PASSAGE OF A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AROUND TAU 6 THROUGH 12 WILL CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK A BIT MORE POLEWARD AS THE FINGER OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH ERODES SLIGHTLY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, THE
SYSTEM WILL RESUME DRIFTING TOWARDS THE WEST. NUMERICAL MODELS
REMAIN INCONSISTENT. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE FINGER OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER,
NOGAPS, GFDN, ECMWF, AND UKMO NOW TRACK THE SYSTEM MUCH SLOWER
THROUGH TAU 72, AND THEN TRACK THE SYSTEM ERRATICALLY AFTER TAU 72.
THE MODELS ARE STILL UNSTABLE, AND THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANALYZED FINGER OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE VERY PROBABLE SCENARIO OF THE SYSTEM TURNING POLEWARD BY TAU 24
AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE FLOW REMAINS AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO IN RESPONSE TO THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST, OR REORIENTATION OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE
FINGER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES BACK TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN THE FACE OF DRY AIR
AND INTERACTION FROM LAND, THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN TO THE POINT THAT
IT IS STEERED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND TRACK INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA.//
NNNN

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track Highly Uncertain; Philippine Flooding Threat Remains October 22, 2009

Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop-click for latest images

For updated information regarding Typhoon Lupit and the Philippines CLICK HERE

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track

Within the previous post, I made the following comment regarding the Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track: “I would also keep my ears on if I were in Taiwan.  The fact that the storm has slowed down may allow for some other environmental factors that would cause the track to change significantly.”  What I was talking about is that the forecast track that has been so consistent for so long with a landfall for the northern Philippines was based on the assumption of the storm maintaining a consistent forward motion.  I had noted that Typhoon Lupit was slowing down.  The problem with that is that as it slows down, it allows for the increasing potential that the steering mechanisms will change.  That appears to have happened.  The models,which had been tightly packed are now all over the place.  It is no longer a probability that Typhoon Lupit strikes the Philippines but instead just one of a number of possibilities.  There is even the real possibility that this storm hits nothing; that is curves north of the Philippines, stays east of Taiwan and gets picked up in the flow such that it races northeast off the Japan coast.  But again, that is but one possibility. 

Typhoon Lupit Water Vapor Loop

As it stands now, the official track takes Typhoon Lupit just along the northern coast of Luzon at a very slow pace if not nearly stationary.  That would be potentially very bad as the center of circulation would stay offshore and heavy rain potential for over 48 hours over Luzon could be extremely problematic.  I would almost venture to say that this is a worse scenario than a direct quick hit and passage.  But, if you read the forecast reasoning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center below, you can read the number of times that they speak of uncertainty.  The reason for that is that, as previously stated, the models are all over the place.  There are indications that the steering ridge to the west over China is eroding.  That would tend to support the models contention that the ridge over the Pacific will become more dominant with its influence.  Think of it as a weakness between ridges and if that is the case, then the storm will want to go poleward between the ridges in that  weak channel.  But, the potential problem lies in the time it takes for that weak channel to develop.  Until it does, the storm will sorta drift around in a quasistationary state until the steering currents get more established.  That is what the early morning forecast track on October 22 reflects. 

Total Precipitable Water Loop

This is no longer a forecast of high confidence.  The Philippines is still not out of the woods.  But, Taiwan and Japan face a possible threat.  I had noted that there seemed to be some dry air within the storm that may inhibit intensification.  The JTWC, however, notes dry air to the northwest but reports that the Total Precipitable Water imagery does not indicate that dry air has gotten into the flow. If the storm does in fact have enough momentum to take it down toward the Philippines before it begins to drift, the JTWC feels like there is some chance for an increase in intensity but it is almost unthinkable for this to get anywhere close to its former super typhoon status.  I would think that the biggest concern for Luzon will be rainfall and the proximity of the storm to the coast when it does become quasistationary.  If this guy lingers around too long, it may get killed by some unforseen outside influence.  So many possibilities and so many questions.

 

WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
A SYSTEM WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TRANSITIONING BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND THE STR TO THE WEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, BUT PRECIPITABLE
WATER DOES NOT YET SHOW DRY AIR INTRUSION. POSITION IS BASED ON
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. INTENSITY IS BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
RJTD AND KNES.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE STRAIT OF LUZON WITH THE VERY PROBABLE SCENARIO OF A POLEWARD
TURN.
    B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND LOITER IN THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND THE STR TO THE WEST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON. THE FURTHER
WEST THE SYSTEM TRACKS, THE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE THE STR TO THE WEST
BECOMES. THE WESTERN RIDGE, HOWEVER, IS BEING ERODED BY DRY,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A DOMINANT
INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM IN THE EARLY TAUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS ERRATIC, A COMMON INDICATOR OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
UNTIL THEY STABILIZE, NOT A LOT OF CREDIBILITY IS BEING PLACED ON
THE MODELS. CURRENTLY, THE MAJORITY OF AIDS HAVE THE SYSTEM MAKING A
SUDDEN POLEWARD TURN BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24; PRESUMABLY THEY HAVE
THE STR TO THE EAST BECOMING THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM.
CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE REGION DOES NOT REVEAL A CLEAR
PICTURE OF THE SYNOPTIC STEERING FLOW, LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAK
ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST PRESENTS THE SYSTEM TRACKING VERY SLOWLY
IN THE ILL DEFINED STEERING FLOW.
   C. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON, IT IS
EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS INFLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY, AND SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
POLEWARD TURN DURING THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT-WAVE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
THERE REMAINS A VERY LIKELY CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE PICKED UP
BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU
12 AND TAU 36, IN WHICH CASE IT WILL TURN POLEWARD AND START TO
ACCELERATE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. //
NNNN

Weaker Typhoon Lupit Track Focus Remains on Luzon, Philippines. Back to Bataan? October 21, 2009

Typhoon Lupit 23:30Z 10.20.09

For a more recent update on the changing forecast track of Typhoon Lupit CLICK HERE

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track

The Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track and intensity forecast remains fairly consistent.  However, the timing of the landfall has been pushed back somewhat.  The GFS model wants to take the storm into Luzon, south of Port San Vincente at 12Z Friday October 23.  The US Navy NOGAPS model wants to run the storm between Bataan and Port San Vincente.  The official track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center splits this narrow difference in between.  It appears to me that they both have a tropical cyclone making landfall with a central pressure of around 982 mb or so, which is relatively speaking, not that low.  For that reason, the intensity forecast has been pulled back to about 90 kts (105 mph) at landfall.  While the slower forward motion means the storm makes a landfall a day later than previously forecast, it also means that the storm will be affecting the northern Philippines for over 24 hours.  The real problem with this storm will be the heavy rain potential.  Areas on the mountains on the western half of the Luzon province will be particularly vulnerable. 

Typhoon Lupit IR satellite loop-click more most recent loop

I’ve seen several different spellings for this storm.  I’ve seen Typhoon Lupin, Typhoon Lupid, and Typhoon Renali.  The last one is the name given in the western Pacific, which I can’t figure out because countries from all around the world contribute to the list of names used by the World Meteorological Organization, yet there is another list used by the locals.  What is particularly perplexing about this is that Lupit was the name provided by the Phillipines.  Anyway, in general, Typhoon Lupit has behaved itself and the forecast has been pretty verifiable.  The track did move north of the 20 degree N. Latitude line before beginning to move more westward and so as the ridge builds in to the north and starts to shove the storm more west-southwesterly it is doing so a shade later.  Hence, this is the reason for the forecast landfall point position just north of the previous landfall projections.  By and large though, its not a significant shift except that the greatest storm surge, seas and even winds would remain just offshore if the forecast track is verified.  But, its stilll several days away and so it would be wise for everyone on the northeastern part of Luzon to be prepared for the surge potential.  I would also keep my ears on if I were in Taiwan.  The fact that the storm has slowed down may allow for some other environmental factors that would cause the track to change significantly.

Total Precipitable Water Loop

The Total Precipitable Water loop is a good tool to view the motion of the storm.  Clearly you can see the move to the northwest and then west.  If you use the 20 degree N. Latititude line as a guide, it is also apparent that Typhoon Lupit has moved just south of due west in the latest images.  It is also clearly apparent that drier air  has surrounded the storm but in the later frames, the precipitable water reflectivity has increased.  Hence, it is possible that the storm may be getting into  a little better environment.  This would not suggest that the storm will get stronger, but instead the degradation process is probably over.  It still has a good looking structure and there is really nothing to suggest that this guy will just go away.  If it does not stay over Luzon for long and follows the track that will keep at least part of the circulation over water means that the re-intensification process once it leaves the Philippines area may be more problematic for Vietnam.  People forget that Vietnam was adversely affected by Ketsana and Parma.  As it is, Vietnam or southern China will be affected by a significant tropical cyclone.  But, its not totally out of the question that the storm may be stronger at its second landfall than the first.

Full Pacific Loop

Just as a sidelight, if you look at the full pacific satellite loop, you will notice another tropical cyclone south of Hawaii.  That is Tropical Storm Neki.  It is forecast to deepen into a Hurricane (or Typhoon though I think in the Central Pacific they are still Hurricanes) and move northwest.  It is forecast to become pretty formidable and it will be interesting to see how it affects the Midway Islands.

WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A
202310Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A 202330Z PGTW DVORAK T-
NUMBER VALUE OF 4.0/5.0. TY 22W IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE
NORTH. THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE OF THE TYPHOON HAS NOT YET FULLY
RECOVERED AFTER CONTENDING WITH A SLOT OF DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR AND
UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. HOWEVER, A LARGE EYE
FEATURE, THOUGH OBSCURED IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, REMAINS
EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING THE 202310Z
SSMIS PASS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASED BASED ON THE CURRENT
WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL FORECAST INTENSITY TREND AND
ASSOCIATED REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS HAVE
ALSO DECREASED, PARTICULARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, IN ANTICIPATION
OF A WEAKER STEERING FLOW THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
    B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANALYZED TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TYPHOON REPLACES THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENSION TO THE NORTH AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR TY 22W HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING DUE TO A SPLIT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
ONE SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE NOGAPS, GFDN, AND GFS,
DEPICTS A SLOWDOWN AND POLEWARD RECURVATURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRENGTHENING PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A SECOND SET OF SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE
ECMWF, JGSM, AND UKMET, SHOW THE TYPHOON CONTINUING WESTWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST BECOMES THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM. THIS SECOND SET OF SOLUTIONS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND JTWC FORECASTS, AND
IS SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF BOTH A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF TY 22W AND A ZONAL UPSTREAM MIDLATITUDE FLOW
PATTERN. THUS, THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THESE WESTWARD-
RUNNING MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE
FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY IF MODEL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES
SHIFT IN FAVOR OF THE SLOWER MOTION SCENARIO. LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48, WHEN THE STORM CIRCULATION WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH TERRAIN OVER NORTHERN LUZON.
    C. TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SLOW IN THE
TAU 96 TO TAU 120 EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AS THE WEAKENED CYCLONE REEMERGES
OVER WATER, FAVORABLY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION.//
NNNN