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Government run relief shelters in the Philippines are sure to swell in numbers from the effects of Typhoon Mirinae. Typhoon Mirinae struck the main island of Luzon around 17 Z October 30 as the third typhoon to hit the Philippines in the past month. Typhoon Lupit also brushed the northeast tip of the Philippines just a week ago. Well over 100,000 Filipinos were still in shelters as a result of the flooding from Typhoon Ketsana and Typhoon Parma which struck back-to-back in late September and early October. Many villages were still flooded from those two calamities that killed over 900. The death toll in the Philippines from Typhoon Mirinae stands at a dozen and at least 15 villages are flooded with up to waist deep water. This is on top of numerous villages that remained flooded from the previous storms. The last report concerning Mount Mayon put the active volcano at a level two alert as just prior to the landfall of Typhoon Mirnae, Mount Mayon had exhibited behaviour of increased activity. Numerous earthquakes from the volcano accompanied minor eruptions of ash plumes but authorities had a dificult time making observations of a potential rising lava dome in the crater.
Typhoon Mirinae has been downgraded to a tropical storm as it moves away from the Philippines at about 20 kts. It is expected to continue moving west-southwest toward South Central Vietnam. The official forecast calls for a second landfall just after 00Z November 2 a couple of hundred miles north of Ho Chi Minh City and continue towards Phnom Penh in Cambodia, though some models still call for a landfall a bit farther south to the east of Ho Chi Minh City. A second tropical system has developed to the east of the Philippines and, while it is not expected to become a typhoon, the current track would take it over the Philippines in the next couple of days and would bring the threat of additional rainfall. The system will be monitored for development.