Arctic Sea Ice Shows Extensive Growth in March 2010 April 6, 2010

NSIDC March 2010 Sea Ice Extent Near 1979-2000 Average-Challenge to Conventional Wisdom?

Arctic Ice Continued Growth in March 2010

Global temperatures this winter on average were up for 2009-2010 but the March Arctic Ice Growth was perhaps unprecedented and much of Northern Asia, Northern Europe and parts of the United States had exceedingly harsh winters while Canada and Greenland were exceedingly warm.    In February, the North Pole Arctic Ice extent appeared to have continued a trend of slow growth from the 2006 lowest recorded maximum ice extent.  Back in 2004, there were several reports concerning undersea volcanic activity that could account for warming Arctic ocean temperatures, but these reports were not widely brought to the public view by the media.   Nevertheless, since the low maximum in March 2006 which followed the lowest Arctic Ice Extent minimum ever recorded in 2005.  Then in 2007, a new record low minimum Arctic Sea Ice extent was observed.   This led to trumpeting in the media that 2008 could result in an ice free Arctic.   If I recall, when I reviewed these media reports, I found that the headline did not match the rhetoric.  A few scientists had said that there was a 1 in 4 chance of that happening, which is hardly a prediction that it would occur.   Not only did that headline prove to be false, but the 2008 Arctic Sea Ice minimum was greater than the previous year.  I noted that, instead of saying that it had grown, the headline from the National Snow and Ice Data Center was that it was the “second lowest” of all time.  The headline was true but they chose the negative presentation over the positive depiction which may speak volumes.  In my mind, headlines should be absent of adjectives that may create bias perceptions one way or the other.

March 2010 3rd Consecutive March To Buck the Long Term Trend Line

Since those days of gloom and doom, the reports have consistently come forth with the reference point always being the lowest.  I”m not sure if I have ever seen a sentence that simply says the ice is growing.  In March 2010, the NSIDC reported that the Arctic Ice Extent in February “continued to track below average” and near those dismal levels of 2007.  But, the numbers were slightly higher and at the end of the month, there was a slight rise that was not noted in the text.  Later, we find that the February Arctic Ice Extent was the “fourth lowest February extent” which means it was higher than 2005, 2006 and 2007 but was lower than 2008 and 2009.   As it turns out, something happened.  As the month of March rolled on,  that little rise at the end of February that was seemingly dismissed continued on through March such that the March ice extent almost reached the 1979-2000 average that is used as a  baseline.  I do not recall the ice extent of any month coming close to that level in recent memory.  I suppose qualitative adjectives only apply for negative news because the April 6, 2010 NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice Extent report used a more balanced headline than it had in previous reports of low ice.    Instead it simply says, “Cold snap causes late-season spurt growth.”  The text of the report does not point out but, this is the 3rd consecutive March to be well above the long term trend line.  This should bring good news of cheer, I would think.  Just 2 years ago, the media was writing about Santa Claus floating away and now we see a huge growth in the ice extent and the latest date of the maximum extent since monitoring began. 

Global Temperature Anomalies Dec-Feb 2010

Nevertheless, I find very little of a positive nature in the report and I think that is the correct approach.  It is good to be cautious in a humble silent admission that we do not have a full understanding of how the earth’s climate operates.  Just report the facts.  But, in the past, there has been a decided negative tilt.  Even in this report, there is talk of how the long term trend is still down and that the overall temperatures were still above average for the Arctic were above average, but it does note that the temperatures in Northern Europe and Siberia were below average.  It probably would have been more accurate to say they were “well below average,” yet again, they seem to pick and choose when to use qualifying adjectives.  If you look at the seasonal temperature map to the right, you notice that all of Siberia was at least 5 degrees C below average and that the rest of Northern Europe was between 3-5 degrees C below average.  That represents an enormous land mass.  Now, Canada was some 3-4 degrees warmer but much of the United States was 2-4 degrees colder.  Air temperatures over the ocean were generally warmer than average but not to the extent of the land anomalies.  For some reason, we had a long wave pattern that gave persistent cold to large land areas in the Northern hemisphere with a somewhat smaller land area covered by warmer temperatures.  Overall, the global temperatures were warmer. If you look at the map, you notice that almost the entire Southern Hemisphere was warmer during the peiriod, which is largely ocean areas.  The exception is the oceans surrounding Antarctica.  What’s up with that?

Is it possible that Undersea Volcanoes can affect the climate through warming ocean temperatures or are they insignficant?

And that last question is the real truth because no one knows.  Yes, the long term trend of Arctic Ice extent is negative but there seems to be a trend over the past 3-4 years of growth that bucks the trend.  This rapid expansion of ice in March did not fit the storyline except that it was the third consecutive year that the March Ice Extent was well above the long term trend line.  And what’s up with the land masses being so cold and the air over the oceans not playing along?  Just a coincidence or is there something at play?  And what about the undersea volcanoes?  Do they play any role at all or are they just red herrings?  And why was the Southern Hemisphere so warm this summer except for the areas around the South Pole?  No one wants to address the fact that the Antarctic did not want to go along with the warming script when the global temperature is taken for the time frame.  I know that I will be given a label for raising any questions which always puts up a red flag to me when legitimate questions are not seriously since they don’t fit a perconceived notion. 

Unfortunately, Mankind Often Takes the Wrong View Regarding Humility

I think that the proper position to take here is not one way or another. It is wrong for people to say that there is no climate change.  Most evidence suggests that there is.  It is not clear if the change though is anthropogenic or natural so it is equally as wrong to pretend like we have all of the answers.  Throughout history, man seems to learn lessons.  After the devastating 30 years war in Europe, mankind seemed to at least temporarily find that diplomacy was a far better way to settle disputes than armed conflict.  Obviously, that lesson has been lost.  But one lesson that man does not seem to learn is humility; a recognition that he currently has limited ability to reach conclusions about anything concerning the wonders of his own planet.  Constantly, what is thought to be fact is tossed on the ash heep of history when something comes along to confound that supposed fact.  Yet, we continue to behave as if we have all of the answers and persecute those who suggest otherwise.

SPC Tuesday Categorical Severe Weather Threat for Wednesday

Weather Bottom Line:  After pontificating about the need for humility, I follow up with a forecast. Nice timing.  But, duty calls.  The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center appears to be taking the more cautious position that I advocated yesterday regarding severe weather prospects in our area.  The slight risk area was expanded on Tuesday both north and south as well as farther east to the extent that it now encompasses the Louisville Metro Area.  This allows for the potential for storms that should develop to our west to hold together in the evening hours and move into our region.  We had temperatures in the mid to upper 80’s on Tuesday…but there is one fly in the ointment..that is the dewpoints.  

Tuesday SPC Severe Weather Probability for Wednesday

Tuesday afternoon we were only in the mid 40’s regarding dewpoints and we’ll have to do better than that to support some good storms around here.   Surface Dewpoints Tuesday afternoon were over 60 from Southwestern Illinois down through the Bootheel of Missouri and and down south from there.  I would speculate that we will probably see an increase in our moisture content such that it will be marginally sufficient to suppor t’storms and possibly strong storms.  Bottom Line is that Wednesday afternoon and evening will be something to keep an eye on around  here.  Not a slam dunk and perhaps not even likely, but there will be a possibility of some action..most likely if we did it would be gusty winds and small hail.  We get some CAPE in here late in the day and some sheer and Helicity…enough for conern but not enough to go bananas over either.

Large Hadron Collider Up and Running-No Black Hole Yet; Mrs. Bixby’s Letter to Lincoln November 21, 2009

A Black Hole, the Future Earth?

A New Cathedral

It’s Back! The Large Hadron Collider is up and running again with no apparent adverse affects.  If you recall, the world’s largest supercollider is located along the French-Swiss border.  It was much ballyhooed as a key tool in the study of subatomic particles.  It was all set and ready to go and it was fired up only to suffer a calamity 9 days later.  About 50 of the magnets were damaged severely and had to be replaced.  Last August, a physicist wrote a paper that supported claims the collider could create a black hole.   Now, the fear isn’t a giant black hole but instead the assertion is that a small black hole could be created and then…well…I dunno what happens then especially if the created black holes are so small that they cannot easily be detected.  There is still an official site for citizens against the Large Hadron Collider.  But, UC Santa Barbara Professor Steve Giddings claims that, even if it did create a small black hole, it would only last for a “nano-nano-nanosecond” and wouldn’t be a big deal.  I guess the professor doesn’t buy into the Barbara Streisand song from Hello Dolly, It only takes a Moment.

Bixby Letter Fascimile of 1891 Sold By New York Huber Museum for $1

On This Date in History: The story goes like this. A widow, Lydia Bixby was said to have lost 5 sons fighting for the Union in the Civil War and Massachusetts Governor John Andrew asked the president to write a letter of condolence. On this date in 1864, President Abraham Lincoln composed a letter to Mrs. Bixby. The letter was published in the Boston Evening Transcript on November 25, 1864. That letter, noted for its compassion and prose, has been hailed since that time and even made its way into Stephen Spielberg’s 1998 Saving Private Ryan with General Marshall reading from the letter and using the letter as the reason why they were going to find Private Ryan.

Historians though have doubts as to the authorship. Many suspect that it was really Lincoln’s secretary, John Hay, who wrote the letter. No original letter has ever been produced. Further, Mrs. Bixby 5 sons weren’t all killed in the war. Two lost their lives in the fighting, another was honorably discharged, another was dishonorably thrown from the ranks and the fifth’s fate is unknown, though some suggest that this means that he either deserted or died in a Confederate prisoner of war camp. How they come to those to limitations is beyond my own limited comprehension.

If Gen. Marshall in

Ironically, on November 17, 2008 a report surfaced that the original Bixby letter may have been found. But, when you read this story, you find that is not necessarily the case and even suggests that analysis reveals that the signature on the new letter is not that of Lincoln. But, could it be the handwriting of Hay? I want to know how it found its way to Texas if it is…and why do they suggest that it is the original when at the top it says “copy.”

It is interesting to me, however, that in The Living Lincoln: The Man and His Times, in His Own Words by Paul M. Angle and Earl Schenck Miers, that they do not mention any question as to Lincoln being the author. They simply say, “Superbly eloquent as the letter that Lincoln wrote to Mr. Lydia Bixby of Boston. This message, published in the Boston Transcript, appealed to the heart of the nation.” I’m not sure if they are suggesting that it was written as a political piece of prose with that purpose in mind, or if its publication resulted in appealing to the heart of the nation. Either way, whoever was the author, it is quite a remarkable letter.

Executive Mansion,
Washington, Nov. 21, 1864.

Dear Madam,–

I have been shown in the files of the War Department a statement of the Adjutant General of Massachusetts that you are the mother of five sons who have died gloriously on the field of battle.

I feel how weak and fruitless must be any word of mine which should attempt to beguile you from the grief of a loss so overwhelming. But I cannot refrain from tendering you the consolation that may be found in the thanks of the Republic they died to save.

I pray that our Heavenly Father may assuage the anguish of your bereavement, and leave you only the cherished memory of the loved and lost, and the solemn pride that must be yours to have laid so costly a sacrifice upon the altar of freedom.

Yours, very sincerely and respectfully,

A. Lincoln

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track Threatens Philippines Near Typhoon Parma and Tropical Storm Ketsana Flooding October 16, 2009

Typhoon Lupit 10.16.09 0530Z

for a more recent update on Typhoon Lupit, CLICK HERE

Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track JTWC

The Philippines is still reeling from the effects of two tropical cyclones in as many weeks.  Over 710 have been reported dead so far from the storms and the economy of the country has been severely affected.  Yesterday, I posted the comments of Philippines President Gloria Arroyo that her country was a victim of climate change, not two typhoons, and was therefore entitled for compensation from the culprits, which presumably is the industrialized world.  Well, the president and the rest of the country may have bigger fish to fry in the near term.  They need to prepare for Typhoon Lupin.  The Joint Typhoon Warning Center Typhoon Lupin Forecast Track takes the storm very near to the same landfall location as Typhoon Parma.  From the forecast, one can ascertain that, unlike Parma or Ketsana before, Lupin will be on the upswing of its lifecycle, meaning that instead of a typhoon that has seen its better days, this one is forecast to be an intensifying tropical cyclone when it makes landfall.  Two things.  The landfall time is still several days away so the forecast is not a sure thing and any deviation of the track over the next 48 hours or so could greatly impact the eventual effect on the Philippines.  Second is that the trend of the forecast was a little farther south than the current thinking.  But, again, the alteration has not been that significant and any impact on the Philippines will be something for the locals to contend with considering the devastation that has occurred and the saturation of mountainous regions in the northern part of the country.  

 

 

Click On Image For Latest Loop

WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT)//
WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) LUPIT HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED TO ITS
CURRENT STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE BANDS
OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS VERY GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING OVERALL SYMMETRY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST A
FEW DEGREES TO THE NORTH. THESE DYNAMICS ARE SUPPRESSING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND CONTRIBUTING TO THE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE
STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
(4.0), RJTD (3.5) AND KNES (T3.5).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. TS 22W WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN EVEN MORE AS IT VEERS POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THIS
STAIR-STEP MOVEMENT WILL BE MOMENTARY AS A SECONDARY LOBE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSUMES STEERING ON THE FOURTH DAY.
    C. BY TAU 72, TS LUPIT WILL RESUME ITS WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED SECONDARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS TS 22W MAKES ITS WAY
TOWARDS NORTHERN PHILIPPINES THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH
LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36 WITH THE
MODELS DEPICTING THE POLEWARD JOG IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AT VARYING DEGREES. WBAR HAS THE MOST EXTREME SOLUTION WITH A
SHARP U-TURN TO THE RIGHT, AND GFDN AND NOGAPS ON A POLEWARDS RECURVE
TOWARDS JAPAN. THE EUROPEAN MODELS - EGRR AND ECMWF, ARE MORE WESTWARD
AND LEFT OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS LEFT OF
CONSENSUS AND JUST RIGHT OF THE ECMWF

No Hurricanes Yet: Due to El Nino, Global Warming or Neither; US V.P. wanted for murder July 11, 2009

Big Bopper Ike

2008 Named Storms Track

Hurricane Season began June 1. Last year, there were 16 named storms in the North Atlantic with half of those becoming hurricanes at some time during their lives. 7 struck the United States and an eight skirted the east coast briefly. Here is the archive of the 2008 Hurricane Season. The most ferocious for the US was Hurricane Ike and if you like, here is a link to a gallery of Hurricane Ike video and Hurricane Ike photos. The average for tropical activity has been some 10 named storms with 6 becoming hurricanes. The general thought in research circles is that there is about a 30 year cycle of hurricane activity and that it was long forecast that activity would turn to the more active 30 year cycle starting in the mid 1990’s and that seems to have come about. People forget that Hurricane Andrew, while a strong hurricane, was just the first of the season and that was not until late August 1992. Just a few years later, we had a record number of named storms in the North Atlantic and its been active ever since.

Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phillip J Klotzbach

Dr. William Gray at Colorado State University has long been considered an expert at hurricane forecasting with his Tropical Meteorology Project. This year, the 2009 Hurricane Forecast predicts 14 named storms with 6 hurricanes, two of which will become major hurricanes. There is no predictability on landfalling hurricanes. This forecast holds with the theory of the North Atlantic being in the active hurricane cycle but the number is supressed as a weak El Nino was anticipated as the season unfolds. It has been determined that an El Nino event in the Pacific tends to curtail tropical activity in the North Atlantic.

None of this has any relation to Global Warming. However, Mr. Gore and others have speculated that Global Warming would result in more hurricanes and also more intense hurricanes. In recent years, there has been an increase in North Atlantic tropical activity. Many with a US based world view point to this as evidence of Global Warming.  However, the number of tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific has been supressed during that time as has been the case in other parts of the world. So, it is held by many that the increase in the North Atlantic has its roots in the natural cycle rather than other factors.

Al Gore Linked Katrina and Global Warming In Spite of What some Experts Conclude

Last year, A meteorologist with NOAA who had apparently been an advocate of a link between Global Warming and an increase in Hurricane Intensity and the numbers of hurricanes now has a new report that says the opposite. Tom Knutson even says that warmer temperatures could decrease hurricane activity and their landfall. That last part is something that I cannot fathom how anyone could make the statement..but he did. Anyway, here is the article with some other links to the study. This guy’s new report may be more of an indication that the wheels may be falling off the Al Gore Juggernaut.

New Global Warming/Hurricane Study

 

 So, now it’s official from NOAA, El Nino is upon us.  What that typically means is a risk for big storms on the Pacific Northwest coast this winter along with a cooler and wetter winter season for the southern plains, among other things.  One of those other things is a limitation of tropical development in the Atlantic basin.  The experts took the notion of a weak El Nino into consideration when they made their initial forecast.   Can we expect a dramatic revision downward in the hurricane forecast or is the El Nino data in line with their supposition?  Personally, I’m not so sure  that humans have enough understanding of the atmosphere and factors involved in tropical storm development to be making long term tropical forecasts.  The forecasts get revised every so often during the year so at the end, they come close, but the initial prognostications are often way way off.  We’ll see. It’s still pretty early in the hurricane season and lack of activity through mid July by no means is a predictor for the rest of the season, which typically peeks in early September.

Aaron Guns Down Alex

 On This Date In History: In recent years, we have heard the “I” word tossed about rather liberally. That word is impeach.

 President Andrew Johnson was impeached but was not convicted by one vote. President Clinton was impeached but also avoided removal from office as the Senate did not vote for conviction. Today, we haven’t heard of anyone calling for the impeachment of  the current president or vice-president.  Yet.  Someone probably will before President Obama’s 4 years are up.  There were certainly those who wanted to impeach President Bush and even Vice-President Cheney.   These calls came from allegations of malfeasance. But on this date in 1804, there is no doubt about it…the Vice-President of the United States gunned down Revolutionary War hero Alexander Hamilton.

Peter Charles Hoffer Wrote About Burr Treason Trials

Hamilton had been an aide-de-camp of Washington during the war and later led a crucial attack at the Battle of Yorktown. He became the first Secretary of the Treasury and served in that capacity for 6 years before retiring. He then formed the Federalist Party, the first political party in America. He detested Thomas Jefferson and the two developed what became known as Hamiltonian ideals and Jeffersonian ideals. Basically, Hamilton wanted a strong central government and Jefferson was for a weak central government with most of the power belonging to the states. Today, Jefferson must be spinning in his grave.

Burr's 1807 Treason Trial

 Anyway, in 1804, Burr was the sitting Vice-President under Jefferson and Hamilton had made some unsavory remarks about Burr, who responded with a challenge to a duel! Hamilton had been famous for dueling but had ironically pushed to outlaw the practice in New York. So, Hamilton and Burr went across the river to New Jersey. On this date in 1804, two shots rang out in Weehawken, New Jersey. Hamilton lay mortally wounded. There is great speculation regarding the incident as many suggest that Hamilton missed on purpose as he was a veteran duelist and a good shot. But there were procedures if one was to desire to not shoot one’s opponent. Hamilton did not follow the procedures. Witnesses could not determine who fired first. But what did happen, is that Burr was forced to stay out of New York for the remainder of his term as murder charges were filed. He is now left to nothing more as a footnote to history, though he was later tried for treason. Alexander Hamilton, on the other hand, has lived in immortality as the face of the ten dollar bill.

 Henry Clay in 1809 was in a Kentucky duel. He was lucky. Both he and his opponent were lousy shots.

 While Dick Cheney did in fact shoot his friend with a shotgun blast, the calls for his impeachment had nothing to do with his shooting prowess.

SPC Severe Risk Sat 8am to Sun 8am

SPC Sun Severe Risk Sun 8am to Mon 8am

Weather Bottom Line:  Saturday is here and a cold front is on its way.  By 9 am it appeared on the radar that a line of t’storm was trying to form along the front between a strong line that extended from near Cleveland and Indy and another cluster associated with a shortwave on the front that was in Southern Illinois.  This would suggest that the risk for t’storms with the initial frontal approach will be in the late afternoon or evening in the Louisville region, which will be the heat of the day.  Guess here is that wind will be the main severe risk with perhaps some hail.  The SPC doesn’t have us in the risk for tornadic activity but,  I can tell you that studies have shown that a large number of the twisters that happen in our area are little guys that spin up and go away quickly along bow echoes…so I wouldn’t put that concern totally to bed.  Nevertheless, if you get damage from wind in a small tornado or strong straight line winds or a downburst, the results are the same so it’s really not relevant except that people like say they were hit by a tornado rather

Tornado probability

than strong wind. Guess it sounds sexier.  Anyway, the local NWS office puts the threat between 1 pm and 9 pm and I suspect that John Gordon’s folks are looking at the same line that I am.  Now, what will happen is that the front will get hung up near our area so the threat for t’storms will be with us for several days as little short waves move along the stalled boundary.  The threats each day will be dependent on the timing of the waves and the exact position of where the front will be lined up and forecasting that at this point is above my paygrade and more of a crap shoot call for anyone, so I shant try to pinpoint that as it will probably be wavering about.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0736 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

Severe Wind Probability

   
   VALID 111300Z – 121200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
   INTO OH VALLEY…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…
  
   …NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/OH RIVER VALLEY…
   MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
   MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET ALREADY NOSING ACROSS THE

Severe Hail probability

GREAT
   LAKES REGION.  MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
   CLOUDY SKIES WILL SUPPORT HEATING THROUGH THE 70S F INTO MUCH OF
   PA/NY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS
   ONTARIO/LOWER MI…WITH 80-90F TEMPS SWWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
   AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING…SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
   PORTIONS OF OH INTO WRN-CENTRAL PA/NY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
   SUPPORTING A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES.  ACTIVITY
   WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD
   ESEWD WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER DARK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS…ALTHOUGH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   UNDER 35-40 KT SWLY LLJ SUGGESTS A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. 
  
   FARTHER SWWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY…REGION WILL REMAIN ON
   FRINGES OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER…AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
   MODEST FLOW ALOFT AND SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW ORGANIZED
   CLUSTERS/LINES OF SEVERE STORMS WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING AHEAD OF
   SLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY THIS
   AFTERNOON. 
  
   …CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS…
   STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK OVER SWRN SD WHICH ARE
   EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING.  MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY SHOULD
   AWAIT AFTERNOON HEATING WITHIN MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASCENT
   AHEAD OF SUBTLE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER
   LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT
   INCREASING STORMS LATER TODAY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SHEAR WILL BE
   MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS…WITH EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A
   FEW CLUSTERS/LINES PERSISTING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
   DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT.
  
   OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS…WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
   IS FORECAST TO SKIRT ND/NRN MN OVERNIGHT.  REGION REMAINS UNDER
   INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING WITH RESULTANT DRY
   SURFACE CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER…ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH
   SUFFICIENT HEATING/MOISTENING MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF DIGGING IMPULSE FOR
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS
   INTO THE EVENING.  SWLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SD
   OVERNIGHT AND MAY FEED ELEVATED TSTMS INTO PORTIONS OF MN WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
  
   ..EVANS/HURLBUT.. 07/11/2009

Aussie Psychiatrists Detect 1st Case of “Climate Change Delusion”; How did Zach Die? July 9, 2009

Global Warming delusional?

There are those who claim that proponents of anthropogenic global warming are lunatics. The word lunatic has actually become a catch all phrase for anything from people with wild ideas, to those who disagree with us to those who are actually mentally ill. It actually arises from early times when it was thought that mental illness had something to do with the phases of the moon, thus the latin root usage of luna.

Call Bob Hartley!

It would seem now that researchers have in fact found a psychiatric condition related to global warming though it is not for the proponents but instead for some who may have developed a deep seeded fear of the phenomenon that is so widely talked about in the press and other media. Here is a story about it from the Melbourne HeraldSun, the actual article and a commentary. You can make of it what you will.

However, I will say that if this condition is true for this young man, then it would be evidence that perhaps there needs to be more responsible reporting and discussion on the topic and stop the hyped up stories and just give the facts without scaring people literally out of their minds.

Melbourne Herald Sun-Doomed to a Fatal Delusion over Climate Change

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry report cited by HeraldSun

Commentary From related science blog Regarding Report

Now, before someone starts labeling me a “global warming denier”, let me assure you that I am not.  In my view, there are many questions to be answered as I believe from my experience in science that man sometimes tends to lose all humility and think he has all of the answers when in fact, he has just scratched the surface in many areas of science, not just atmospheric and climate research.  Scientific “fact” is often replaced by new “facts” that seem to render the old “facts” obsolete.  In this case,  a quick search did not find any other credible sources beyond a couple of doctors from the Melbourne’s Royal Children’s Hospital that wrote in  the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry that refer to global warming delusions, but did find this somewhat less than credible source.    So, while the newspaper sources made the reports, one must remember that just because it’s on tv or in the paper and certainly on the internet, that it is true.  However, there is at least one fairly credible source and it should not be thrown out just because it doesn’t fit your world view, just as it’s true that any data that comes out regarding global warming, one way or another, should not be dismissed out of hand.  It should be scrutinized and put through the peer review process, which at least one Physics organization and  many other have suggested that parts of the IPCC report did not go through. 

Sell Me San Francisco or Else!

On This Date In History: Explorers wandered up and down the Pacific Coast for years before someone decided to snoop about an inlet in what is northern California. In 1769, the Spanish found it and saw it as a strategic asset. In 1776, while the colonists on the other side of the continent were in rebellion, the Spanish founded San Francisco de Asis, which means St. Francis of Assisi. The outpost was the northern most in the Spanish empire and later was the same with Mexico. In 1835, US government made the Mexicans an offer that they should not have refused. Uncle Sam offered to buy the settlement and the Mexicans refused. I believe it was Santa Anna who turned down the Americans generous offer. I guess he was too busy putting down a rebellion in Tejas to consider such real estate deals. By 1846, the Mexicans found themselves in a war with the United States over the southern border of what by that time was the state of Texas.

San Francisco March 1847

Not long after hostilities commenced on this date in 1846, Captain John Montgomery sailed his US warship into San Francisco bay, dispatched a group of marines and promptly took San Francisco de Asis without firing a shot. The Americans must have thought the name was too long and shortened it to simply San Francisco. In 1848, the Americans dictated terms of the end of the war with the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo that not only forced Santa Anna to turn over San Francisco, but also about 55% of his territory which included all of California, Nevada and Utah, most of Arizona and parts of Colorado, Wyoming and New Mexico. Santa Anna did get $15 million for his trouble. But Santa Anna just had bad luck. Not long after he made the deal, gold was found in California which yielded many many more millions than he got. Gold, silver and other precious metals and natural resources were later found in the entire region. He should have taken the San Francisco deal to begin with.

It just so happens that a big shot general in the Mexican War was Zachary Taylor who used his battlefield prowess to propel him to the Presidency. He was elected a few months after the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo in November 1848. On July 4, 1850 President Taylor attended Independence Day festivities on a hot day in Washington DC and for some reason ate a bunch of cherries and washed them down with milk. He returned to the White House and drank a bunch of water. On This Date In History President Taylor promptly died. The cartoon at left suggests it was from lemonade which I cannot find suggested anywhere else. I had read that he died from eating too many sweet potatoes but that story seems to have gone by the wayside. There was talk in modern times, though surprisingly not in his day, that he was poisoned because he was a staunch unionist and threatened to personally lead a military attack against any state that tried to secede. In 1991, some of these conspiracy theorists convinced the Taylor family that they needed to dig up the former President from his resting place in Louisville to solve a crime. The DNA results were negative. Imagine that.

So, they were back to the original cause of death, which was described as gastroenteritis. Now, many say that Taylor succumbed to Cholera, probably ingested through the milk or water. Regardless, he died on this date in 1850 and you can visit him in Louisville. Snow White and I have done so a few times. If he had not passed away as President, we may never have heard of his successor, Millard Fillmore. Well…maybe it made no difference because not too many people have heard of Millard Fillmore.

Weather Bottom Line:  Boring weather.  Upper 80’s today.  Maybe an isolated t’shower.  Friday and Saturday, low 90’s and much more humid.  Again, isolated t’storm…probably better chance on Saturday.  A front sneaks down Saturday night or Sunday which will raise the prospects of more numerous storms.

2009 Hurricane Season Forecast. Will Global Warming Reduce The Number of Hurricanes? May 20, 2009

Big Bopper Ike

2008 Named Storms Track

Hurricane Season begins in less than two weeks.  Last year, there were 16 named storms in the North Atlantic with half of those becoming hurricanes at some time during their lives.  7 struck the United States and an eight skirted the east coast briefly.  Here is the archive of the 2008 Hurricane Season.   The most ferocious  for the US was Hurricane Ike  and if you like, here is a link to a gallery of Hurricane Ike video and Hurricane Ike photos.  The average for tropical activity has been some 10 named storms with 6 becoming hurricanes.  The general thought in research circles is that there is about a 30 year cycle of hurricane activity and that it was long forecast that activity would turn to the more active 30 year cycle starting in the mid 1990’s and that seems to have come about.  People forget that Hurricane Andrew, while a strong hurricane, was just the first of the season and that was not until late August 1992.  Just a few years later, we had a record number of named storms in the North Atlantic and its been active ever since. 

Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phillip J Klotzbach

Dr. William Gray at Colorado State University has long been considered an expert at hurricane forecasting with his Tropical Meteorology Project.   This year, the 2009 Hurricane Forecast predicts 14 named storms with 6 hurricanes, two of which will become major hurricanes.  There is no predictability on landfalling hurricanes.  This forecast holds with the theory of the North Atlantic being in the active hurricane cycle but the number is supressed as a weak El Nino is being anticipated as the season unfolds.  It has been determined that an El Nino event in the Pacific tends to curtail tropical activity in the North Atlantic.

None of this has any relation to Global Warming.  However, Mr. Gore and others have speculated that Global Warming would result in more hurricanes and also more intense hurricanes.  In recent years, there has been an increase in North Atlantic tropical activity in recent years.  Many with a US based world view point to this as evidence of Global Warming.  However, the number of tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific has been supressed during that time as has been the case in other parts of the world.   So, it is held by many that the increase in the North Atlantic has its roots in the natural cycle rather than other factors.

Al Gore Linked Katrina and Global Warming In Spite of What some Experts Conclude

 Last year,   A meteorologist with NOAA who had apparently been an advocate of a link between Global Warming and an increase in Hurricane Intensity and the numbers of hurricanes now has a new report that says the opposite.  Tom Knutson even says that warmer temperatures could decrease hurricane activity and their landfall. That last part is something that I cannot fathom how anyone could make the statement..but he did.  Anyway, here is the article with some other links to the study.  This guy’s new report may be more of an indication that the wheels may be falling off the Al Gore Juggernaut.

New Global Warming/Hurricane Study

 

Hey, it’s going to do what its going to do, whatever the cause.   We currently have a system that has been traversing the Florida Peninsula bringing welcome rain.  For several days, the National Hurricane Center has been threatening to send out a Hurricane Hunter to investigate even though they admitted the chances of it turning tropical was minimal.  They keep cancelling the flights and have now said that they will stop making special reports.  However, it will be interesting to see what they will do in the coming days as the models suggest the low will move into the middle of the Gulf and not along the Gulf Coast, as previously indicated.  It remains progged to be around a 1008 mb low, which is below standard sea level pressure but not all that low.  It will give the boys at the NHC something to talk about and use as a PR tool as we head into the hurricane season, which starts June 1.

NAM Fri Eve has 1006 mb low in Gulf

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
830 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS BECOMING
ABSORBED BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER FLORIDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY…AND THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELED. IN ADDITION…LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NON-TROPICAL
LOW OVER FLORIDA IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

 

Good Weekend For a Cruise on the Belle of Louisville

Weather Bottom Line:

  The ridge continues to hang out and will do so through the weekend.  Shower activity will be supressed and the temperatures will elevate into the mid 80’s as we move through the end of the week into the weekend. Enjoy it.  Snow White and I are going on a bike ride this afternoon.  Yesterday we saw Star Trek and she liked it so much, she wanted to see it again….like right then.  Never knew she was a trekkie.  It was good though.  I love McCoy and Scotty.  They have some great lines.

Abraham Lincoln’s Bixby Letter; Ski Resorts Booming Despite Global Warming? Still Too Cold Here November 21, 2008

00Z NAM 12Z Sat SFC

Snow White and I went for a walk on Thursday evening because we like to walk in the snow. Okay, it was I

00Z Fri NAM 850mb

call getting “flurried to death” but they were decent sized flakes even though the ground was too warm for it to be called more than just flurries or “heavy flurries.” It was still fun. I caught a couple on my tongue after much effort. The NAM suggests that we could see more of that kind of stuff in the early morning hours on Friday before conditions change toward daybreak. If you look at the 00Z Fri 850mb NAM it indicates complete saturation over us but temperatures between -9 C and -12 C. The 06Z Fri 850mb NAM shows 90% saturation but the temps are below -12 C. It would seem to me that, while its possible we get some flurries earlier, the most likely time of getting some snow flurries squeezed out would be in the pre-dawn hours when the 850mb temps fall. The moisture is exiting by 12Z…so by sunrise its out. However, having said all of that, the moisture down below 850mb…down toward the surface, is pretty dry so I bet we’ve already seen the best snow.  I suspect we’ll be seeing dewpoints at the surface in the mid teens, which is so dry that it’s entirely not out of the question that we get sublimation…that’s when a solid turns to a gas…or snow disappearing into the dry air…before it gets to the ground.  I’m writing this at 9:30pm on Thursday so we’ll see how it shakes out.  Regardless, keep the snow shoes in the closet. After that, we don’t warm up much on Friday afternoon and then the temperature at the airport will fall to the low 20’s.

06Z Fri NAM 850mb

And remember, since the NWS decided to move the official site to the airport a couple of years ago, the official low will be the warmest in the area except for Tell City, which for some reason is typically even warmer than the airport. Anyway, in your backyard, upper teens will be likely and even the mid teens for many of you in outlying areas. Clouds on Saturday will prevent temperatures from getting out of the 30’s in the afternoon. The long wave trof (jet stream) will be lifting out by that time and on Sunday, we will have some sunshine and southwesterly winds will help take us to around 50. At this point, the next week looks cooler than average, but not as cold as we’ve seen. In fact, we may approach seasonal averages for Thanksgiving Day.

Be Careful With Global Warming Skepticism: You know that I have some skepticism regarding anthropogenic global warming. I’m pretty much sold on the global warming aspect but am not so certain

Big Early Snow in Alps Despite Global Warming

regarding the anthropogenic part. I do think though that there can be agreement that we should be working toward energy independence and renewable resources. I mean, those who think we are doomed due to man-made global warming will go for that and those who want to look for economy and national security interests should also be on board. Same goal from different perspectives. Anyway, I found this site that scoffed at the apparent contradiction in the following headlines. This first story (Ski Resorts Face Uncertain Future) was from 2006 claiming that the ski resorts in Europe were headed toward extinction due to lack of snow because of global warming. The second (Ski Industry Predicts Boom As Cold Sets In) is a recent article talking about the boom in ski resort business with early openings due to the heavy snows. On the surface, this seems to be a contradiction when, in fact, if you read the first article it says that in coming decades the ski resorts were doomed and that banks were refusing to extend credit to resorts below a certain level. In both instances, one season does not a trend make. I guess that my only issue here is to be making judgements based on headlines one way or another. Often, the writer of the article will show a bias either way, not necessarily by omission, but by placement. Pertinent facts and qualifiers to the opening paragraph are often found buried near the end of the article. The writer either didn’t think it was important or deliberately puts it at the bottom knowing that people tend to stop reading half way through.

Bixby Letter Fascimile of 1891 Sold By New York Huber Museum for $1

On This Date in History: The story goes like this. A widow, Lydia Bixby was said to have lost 5 sons fighting for the Union in the Civil War and Massachusetts Governor John Andrew asked the president to write a letter of condolence. On this date in 1864, President Abraham Lincoln composed a letter to Mrs. Bixby. The letter was published in the Boston Evening Transcript on November 25, 1864. That letter, noted for its compassion and prose, has been hailed since that time and even made its way into Stephen Spielberg’s 1998 Saving Private Ryan with General Marshall reading from the letter and using the letter as the reason why they were going to find Private Ryan.

Historians though have doubts as to the authorship. Many suspect that it was really Lincoln’s secretary, John Hay, who wrote the letter. No original letter has ever been produced. Further, Mrs. Bixby 5 sons weren’t all killed in the war. Two lost their lives in the fighting, another was honorably discharged, another was dishonorably thrown from the ranks and the fifth’s fate is unknown, though some suggest that this means that he either deserted or died in a Confederate prisoner of war camp. How they come to those to limitations is beyond my own limited comprehension.

If Gen. Marshall in

Ironically, on November 17, 2008 a report surfaced that the original Bixby letter may have been found. But, when you read this story, you find that is not necessarily the case and even suggests that analysis reveals that the signature on the new letter is not that of Lincoln. But, could it be the handwriting of Hay? I want to know how it found its way to Texas if it is…and why do they suggest that it is the original when at the top it says “copy.”

It is interesting to me, however, that in The Living Lincoln: The Man and His Times, in His Own Words by Paul M. Angle and Earl Schenck Miers, that they do not mention any question as to Lincoln being the author. They simply say, “Superbly eloquent as the letter that Lincoln wrote to Mr. Lydia Bixby of Boston. This message, published in the Boston Transcript, appealed to the heart of the nation.” I’m not sure if they are suggesting that it was written as a political piece of prose with that purpose in mind, or if its publication resulted in appealing to the heart of the nation. Either way, whoever was the author, it is quite a remarkable letter.

Executive Mansion,
Washington, Nov. 21, 1864.

Dear Madam,–

I have been shown in the files of the War Department a statement of the Adjutant General of Massachusetts that you are the mother of five sons who have died gloriously on the field of battle.

I feel how weak and fruitless must be any word of mine which should attempt to beguile you from the grief of a loss so overwhelming. But I cannot refrain from tendering you the consolation that may be found in the thanks of the Republic they died to save.

I pray that our Heavenly Father may assuage the anguish of your bereavement, and leave you only the cherished memory of the loved and lost, and the solemn pride that must be yours to have laid so costly a sacrifice upon the altar of freedom.

Yours, very sincerely and respectfully,

A. Lincoln

Global Warming Causes Delusional Behavior? Bertha’s Hurricane Behaviour July 9, 2008

There are those who claim that proponents of anthropogenic global warming are lunatics. The word lunatic has actually become a catch all phrase for anything from people with wild ideas, to those who disagree with us to those who are actually mentally ill. It actually arises from early times when it was thought that mental illness had something to do with the phases of the moon, thus the latin root usage of luna.

It would seem now that researchers have in fact found a psychiatric condition related to global warming though it is not for the proponents but instead for some who may have developed a deep seeded fear of the phenomenon that is so widely talked about in the press and other media. Here is a story about it from the Melbourne HeraldSun, the actual article and a commentary. You can make of it what you will.

However, I will say that if this condition is true for this young man, then it would be evidence that perhaps there needs to be more responsible reporting and discussion on the topic and stop the hyped up stories and just give the facts without scaring people literally out of their minds.

Melbourne Herald Sun-Doomed to a Fatal Delusion over Climate Change

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry report cited by HeraldSun

Commentary From related science blog Regarding Report

Bertha Shows Some Resilience:

Hurricane Bertha, as I noted yesterday was looking pretty good on the late satellite photo…certainly better than 24 hours earlier. I suggested that perhaps it would get a little stronger and, indeed, it has as it moved back over some warmer water. The forecast suggests that it will still have some warm water to work with but the forecasters feel that as it turns north, it will get into some more upper shear that will displace and disrupt the upper support enough that it begins to erode again. They still have it taking a more northeasterly course at the end but…there are a few models out there that I have seen that continue to suggest it moves more northwest off the Maine Coast before going inland in the coastal regions of the Canadian Maritime area. One such model does an interesting thing as it kinda pinwheels around an upper low. If this were to come true, and there is nothing in the official forecast that even suggests it, then it would produce some news headlines, I’m sure. What is not certain is what Bertha’s whereabouts will be after 72 hours though it still should largely be a problem for maritime interests.

An Honest Report On Arctic Ice Melt-Just the Facts June 30, 2008

DOESN’T ANYONE JUST REPORT THE FACTS ANYMORE?

I posted the other day all about the Volcano Under the North Pole. The story had been out for some time but word started getting spread on June 27. On that same day came the headline “This Summer We May See the First Ice-Free North Pole” from the Associated Press. The story is based on a report from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. That report came out on June 3, yet the Associated Press waited to report on it until June 27. Makes you say…hmmmmm. The first sentence in the article quotes a leading scientist with his guess that there is a 50-50 chance that the North Pole becomes ice-free this summer. Later, you find that it says slightly less than 50-50 chance. Let’s don’t let a little adverb get in the way of a catchy first sentence. Later, you find a leading scientist who puts the odds at 1 in 4. Why wasn’t he the first guy mentioned? Why was he buried in the story? Why wasn’t that the headline? BTW…the 50-50 stuff isn’t found in the NSIDC report either…only the AP story.

You also won’t find this quote from the real report in the story : “This year, much of the first-year ice is farther north than normal, and those northern areas receive weaker solar radiation. So, northern first-year ice may be less vulnerable to melt than first-year ice in typical locations” Nor will you find in the story that the report says that in May 2008 there was actually more polar ice than May 2007. The report does say that there appears to be a more rapid ice melt going on. What you do find in the AP story though is the paraphrase from a scientist that there is nothing scientifically significant about the North Pole…that the  biggest problem appears to be concern about Santa’s home. Huh? If that’s the case, then why is this a story? That sentence deserves more examination and questions, but the writer chose not to, I guess. Maybe he was afraid of the answers. Or maybe he wants to scare the kids.

The story about the Arctic Undersea Volcano was first reported by the National Science Foundation in 2004. I cited several other sources that have come out since then. Yet…you won’t find any mention of the volcano in the AP Story. Guess the reporter didn’t know about it…or maybe he didn’t do his homework. ..or maybe he did know about it and decided to leave it out of the story.  It just clutters things up, right?  But, to be fair, that the report doesn’t talk about the volcanic activity is perhaps justification.  But, a question as to why the report doesn’t mention the vulcanology going on seems vital…that is if you want the whole story.   If you read the report that is the supposed underlying source of the story, you will find other things that are just a wee bit different than what the AP writer wrote and other things left out all together.

The trouble with journalism today is that there are not any Joe Fridays out there…people who want just the facts. They jazz things up, leave out adverbs, neglect to report the entire story and put eye-catching headlines.

It’s not the NSIDC report that I have a problem with. I mean, it is what it is…the ice is melting. I would be curious though about their opinion regarding the undersea volcano and how much of a factor that may be. But, it’s the writer’s story that is problematic. In my view, either this person is not very bright or qualified to be reporting this story or he is just plain pushing an agenda instead of reporting the facts, all the facts and nothing but the facts. In this case he thinks that 50-50 is the same as slightly less than 50-50. Which is it? He’ ll probably never tell.

Here is the real report and see if you don’t see a difference between it and the AP story.

National Snow and Ice Center News and Analysis

“This summer may see first ice-free North Pole”

The Dead Zone & Midwest Flooding; Woody Does Battle In Mexico, again. June 21, 2008

I TOLD YOU SO!!!! (snow white says this is too long)

This is done just after midnight and there really isn’t much change regarding the SPC forecast for Saturday.  The idea is that a short wave runs along a boundary to the north and storms will erupt along the track but they have the severe risk area this far south due to the potential for guys forming south of the short or the short moving along farther south than the models indicate.  I’ll update this during the day on Saturday. 

The Dead Zone  If you want to look back at a previous post of mine on this subject, look no further than here:  “I Told You So” from June 16, 2007  and “A Real Problem”  from May 14, 2007

What I’m talking about is water pollution.  I’ve talked often about how, in my view, we need to be concentrating our efforts on cleaning up a known death trap…that is the pollution of our waters.  Unlike Global Warming, we know for a fact that we are polluting our waters.  I know it every time we go to scull on Harrod’s Creek.  The other day when we put one of the boats on the water, the always delicate Snow White screeched “It’s feces!!”  And you know what? She was right.  My father-in-law told me it was a sewer and he hasn’t been there for years.  He’s known it for years.  Reports have come in for years about all of the municipalities that pollute directly into the Ohio River all up and down the waterway.  No one does a thing.  But we do give Academy Awards for movies that gets people all worked up over something else that may or may not be happening and may or may not be something of which we can do something about.  But water pollution is something we can do something about and we should do something about.  Water is a basic building block of all life.  Without it, we and everything else dies.  Poison it and we poison ourselves. 

As part of the effort to stave off Global Warming and also reduce energy dependence on foreign oil, Congress mandated ethanol.  Corn prices soared and corn production increased.  More fertilizer has been used.  That fertilizer is known to end up in the rivers through run-off.  The fertilizer, I believe it’s  the nitrogen, helps to decrease the oxygen content and makes for a dead zone.  When Snow White and I went to the Chesapeake Bay last summer, crabbing interests were in a decline because the number of crabs had been depleted due to a dead zone in the bay.  It has also been a well known fact that there is a dead zone near the mouth of the Mississippi River.  The photo above below Colonel Klink is a NASA photo where the red and yellow colors show depleted oxygen levels.  Marine life cannot live in these zones.  Here is a link to the NASA page that explains further.

NASA-Dead Zone

Now comes a report that the rains and Midwest flooding will only increase the dead zone.  More fertilizer for more corn crops so we can inefficiently produced ethanol to raise corn prices and not affect gasoline prices in the least.  More fertilizer then has more rain which puts more runoff into the Mississippi River that then goes into the Gulf of Mexico and then there is more uninhabitable marine areas.  Prior to this time it was 5,800 square miles of dead Gulf of Mexico.  How much more do you want?  Maybe I should make a movie and get people’s attention.  I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again…Global Warming is worth studying but water pollution deserves action today…now.  We’re 68% water…our bodies…where do you think that water comes from?  Our planet. Poison the earth’s water and we poison ourselves.  We are in fact poisoning our planet…no question its all around us.  Yet, we do nothing.  Here’s a story that came out today.

Dead Zone In Gulf Larger than Predicted 10,000 Square Miles?

On This Date In History:  Woodrow Wilson went into office with the idea that America wanted change from the Republican days of Teddy Roosevelt and William Howard Taft.  Never mind that he never got 50% of the vote.  He wanted to get America back to where he thought the founders intended and that was a non-interventionist foreign policy.  Yet, he invaded Mexico at least twice and took us into World War I.  I won’t debate the merits of World War I and will only mention that the first invasion of Mexico happened in Vera Cruz in 1914 when a handful of sailors were detained briefly by Mexican authorities.  The President sent a bunch of battleships and Marines to the area.  The Mexicans released the sailors and apologized. Not good enough.  Wilson demanded that the Mexicans also raise the American flag to a 21 gun salute.  Wilson wanted to embarrass a President of Mexico that he didn’t like.  The Mexican president refused to fire off 21 cannons while raising the American flag so we invaded briefly.  So much for change.  TR must have chuckled and applauded Wilson’s gunboat diplomacy.

On this date in 1916, General John J. Pershing’s troops were attack by the Mexican army.  Why? Well, maybe it was because he took his 10,000 troops into Mexican territory.  They were after Pancho Villa who had executed several Americans in Mexico and then briefly crossed the US border and burned down a town in New Mexico.  So, Wilson the non-interventionist sent Pershing into a foreign country too find a bandit who had killed some Americans.  The end result was some American soldiers were killed, more Mexican soldiers were killed and after 11 months, Pershing returned to the United States empty handed.  Villa lived several more years before being assassinated…by what most historians suspect was the Mexican government. 

Woodrow Wilson promised change, to be less belligerent with other nations of the world and later to track down a bandit who had killed Americans abroad and on US soil.  Oh…and one of Wilson’s legacies was the Treaty of Versailles which was so flawed that it directly led to the calamity known as World War II.  Change can be dangerous.  History if full of unintended consequences.