Vote Naked, First Time Voters and the end of Black Bart;LG&E Gas “Rate Hike” November 3, 2008

Expect This Through Midweek

I did a check this week of our temperatures…since last Monday, we’ve had highs of 48, 50, 59, 65, 71,74 and 74. The average of the past 7 days has been 63 degrees. While may neighbor Jainie said she was scared of the warm temperatures (global warming fear), I assured her it was nothing out of the ordinary…and this week supports my assurances. For the past 7 days, the seasonal average is about 62.5 degrees. So, we’re climatologically right on target. This time of year it’s not unusual to have big temperature swings and we’re going to see it again, only this week, we stay in the mid 70’s through Thursday. Then a cold front brings rain and t’storms Thursday night into early Friday morning. We get chillier on Friday in the low to mid 50’s with the clouds breaking somewhat in the afternoon before they return with the core of the cold air Saturday. Cloudy skies with a few light showers probably will keep us from getting out of the 40’s and Sunday its back to the low 50’s. Don’t be alarmed.

LG&E “RATE HIKE”

The Professor is In

Now you may have been alarmed by the Courier Journal Article about the the LG&E “rate hike” for this winter. The story is headlined, “LG&E to raise natural gas rates by 24%” Now, when I read this, I was shocked because I knew that natural gas, like most other commodities, have fallen rapidly in price over the past 6 weeks and because I know that LG&E set its last quarterly rate in August at a little more than $16.30 per 1000 cubic feet. So a 24% increase sounded like a scam when the open market rate is I think now below the $7 range. Why, the first line of the article trumpets: “LG&E customers will pay 24 percent more for natural gas to heat their homes starting Saturday.”

In my view this is, to be kind, misleading. You go on to find that the new

Natural Gas Prices (and rates) Have Gone Up and Come Down

quarterly rate going into effect on November 1 is $11.09. That is more about a 32% DECREASE in the cost to heat your home. Given that the $16.30 rate in July was a 65% increase over the previous quarter, the latest price cut still leave us some 24% higher than a year ago. But that’s not what the headline said nor the first sentence. So, while it is true that our bills will be 24% higher than last year, it is not an increase of the rate…LG&E actually dropped the rates heading into the fall and winter months. And guess what, they re-establish rates on February 1. If the trend continues or even if prices stabalize where they are, then we’d get another cut in natural gas prices for the cold month of February and into March and April. In other words, its not as bad as it sounds. Now, the question would be why the headline was not, “LG&E cuts natural gas rates 32% heading into winter” with the first line of the story reading, “LG&E has cut its natural gas rates from this summer by 32%, but consumers will begin the season paying 24% more than last winter.” In my view, that is more accurate. You decide for yourself by clicking here for the article.

How did I know all of this? I read my bill and I watch the commodity markets. I think it helps to get basic facts for yourself on any subject instead of relying on someone else’s interpretation of that given subject. Compare your bills from the past year and see for yourself. I’m not defending LG&E here, because right after they set the rate for August, natural gas prices started falling quickly. So, they did pretty well. And now, the price is under $7 but they are charging over $11. I suppose they get some cushion in case the price goes up. I’m also not picking on our local paper because, I know folks there and they do good work and work hard. Nevertheless, what I am all about is honesty, fairness and accuracy. Its not that difficult.

Election tidbits:

Paper Got it Wrong

On this date in 1964, residents of Washington DC got the right to vote in a presidential

Harry Delighted

election. See, the election of the president is really done by the electors of each state and the District of Columbia is not a state so residents could not Constitutionally vote for president. The passage of the 23rd Amendment in 1961 gave DC residents the vote and they exercised it for the first time in 1964, much to the delight of President Johnson who received their three electors. Also, on this date in 1948, the Chicago Tribune famously proclaimed the demise of President Harry Truman. You can read about how they came to make their infamous goof right here.

These are but a couple of the notations of history regarding presidential polling….and this year may add a new one. It seems that there is a nudist colony in Florida. Well, its a “clothing optional” community. And they have had the inconvenience of having to go to a nearby neighborhood to vote. I suspect that the neighbors wouldn’t take too kindly to naked folks running around their streets looking for a place to put their votes, so the nudists have to put on those menacing garments. But, they don’t want to do that…they want their own polling place so they can vote naked! Here’s the story of Voting in the Buff!

On This Date in History: Do you remember the movie A Christmas Story in which Ralphie wants a BB gun and has visions of shooting Black Bart? It leads one to believe that Bart was some desperado. Well, in the 1870’s there was a dime novel that was loosely based on a true story. The writer called his main character Bartholomew Graham who took the name of “Black Bart” because he wore black close, had black long curly hair and a dense black beard. In real life, there was a man named Charles Bowles was born in England in 1829 and immigrated to New York in the United States a few years later with his family.

Dapper Black Bart

As a young man, he changed his name to Boles and in 1849, he and his cousin went to California to seek their fortune in gold. They failed and a few years later, came back. Charley Boles tried again with his cousin and his brother. Not only did they fail again, but the brother and cousin both died from an illness. Charley eventually returned and got married. After spending time in the Union Army and serving with distinction, Charley again went out west, this time to Montana where he set up a mining site that depended on water. Some men from Wells Fargo offered to buy his claim and he refused. The men reacted by cutting off his water and Charley had to abandon his mine but said in a letter to his wife,”I am going to take steps.” No one knew what he meant. The last letter his wife received from him was in 1871.

On July 23, 1878 a Wells Fargo stagecoach was robbed of $400. It wasn’t the first time that a stagecoach from Wells Fargo had been robbed. It is believed that the culprit first began robbing stagecoaches in 1875 because, each time, a poem that intimated the perpetrator was going to strike again. It was signed “Black Bart”. Bart robbed Wells Fargo stage coaches numerous times throughout the late 1870’s and early 1880’s. He wore a flour sack on his head and never fired a shot, though on a few occasions, shots were fired at him. There was never any mayhem or extreme violence. On This Date in 1883, Bart made a mistake when he left behind a handkerchief as he made his escape following what would be his last stagecoach robbery. The Pinkerton detectives were able to track the hanky from a laundry mark to an elderly man in San Francisco named Charles Bolton. Bolton admitted that he indeed was Black Bart, but he disputed his reputation as being an outlaw by telling the Pinkertons. “I am a gentleman.” It was also learned that Bolton was really Charles Boles, who years before vowed to “take steps” against the company who forced him to abandon his mining claim. His wife, who had thought he was long since dead, found out that Boles was alive when she learned of his arrest. But, I guess his absence must have been the show stopper because Boles went to prison for a short time and spent the rest of his days quietly in Nevada.

Omar Lives! OPEC Cuts Off The Oil; Violence Breaks Out Over Election! Golden Retriever Gets $150K; Frost Possible This Weekend October 17, 2008

Frost Possible Saturday Night

for a more recent update on Omar, CLICK HERE

Much cooler air will work its way into Louisville over the weekend. For much of the month we’ve seen temperatures in Louisville in the 80’s, upper 80’s at times. The first front moved through and the rain on Thursday was pretty pathetic but we’ll take what we can get. Officially it was .11″ with the best report from around the county set at just over a quarter inch. There is the second, real push of cooler air set to move through this weekend. An associated upper low will come through on Friday that will increase clouds. There will be a slight chance for an late Friday night shower but it will be very insignificant. After mid 40’s and mid 60’s on Friday. Saturday the clouds will decrease early and we will generally be sunny by the afternoon but highs will only be in the low 60’s. Look for a clear chilly night Saturday night with the upper 30’s in Louisville and low to mid 30’s in the outlying areas. Frost will be possible. But, high pressure moves east and we get a turn around in the flow with Sunday becoming outstanding with a high near 70. Bottom line is that the weekend looks great, just have a jacket or sweater handy.

Hurricane Omar 1017 0445Z

Hurricane Omar Forecast Track 1016 11PM

Hurricane Omar: Earlier I said that I had not analyzed the situation but that a

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model 1017 00Z

quick look at the satellite imagery looked like Omar might be encountering a front. Well, the boys at the National Hurricane Center pooh-poohed that idea Thursday evening, specifically saying that there was no evidence of a front. That tells me that they looked but came up with nothing. But, they note that there is a strong shear from the southwest and that Omar has lost its warm upper core. The mid layers are still warm so they are keeping it as a

Hurricane Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1017 00Z

tropical cyclone. They are openly pondering how much longer that Omar will be able to keep that classification. Bottom line is that this guy is dying and in 48 hours it will move over water that is less than 80 F and I suspect in 36 to 60 hours it will lose it’s tropical moniker, though the official forecast is more optimistic for Omar. The National Hurricane Center Hurricane Omar Forecast discussion, authored by Florida State University alum Dr. Jack Beven can be found below. I know Jack Beven. I went to school with Jack Beven. I can tell you, I’m no Dr. Jack Beven…but from experience I can tell you that I am a better bowler.

Bad Guy In 1973

On This Date In History: On this date in 1973, the flow of oil to the United States began to run dry. In the early 1960’s, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Venezuela decided to get together and co-ordinate their policies in an effort to raise the price of oil. They called their new alliance Oil Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC). During that decade, other largely Arab nations and Third World oil producers jumped on board. But, they largely failed until the early 1970’s as there was an increase in global demand and a decrease in US oil production.

While OPEC was having a little meeting in Vienna in October 1973, Egypt and Syria attacked Israel. It became known as the Yom Kippur War because it began on October 6, 1973 on Yom Kippur. Israel took it on the chin for a few days but thereafter pushed back and, after receiving aid from the US, Netherlands and Denmark, the Israelis pushed the Syrians out of the Golan Heights and went so far west as to cross the Suez Canal when a cease fire was put in effect on October 26, 1973.

Even though Syria and Egypt weren’t part of OPEC but on October 17, 1973 it was apparent that things weren’t going so well for the pair of attackers so OPEC decided to help out in the geopolitical arena by initially saying that it would decrease exports to the US and other Israel supporters by 5 percent a month until Israel returned to pre-1967 war borders. Global oil prices went up 70%. By December, OPEC made it an all out embargo and the price of oil went up another 130%. It wasn’t long before oil prices were up 400%. After US Secretary of State Henry Kissenger negotiated a deal between the warring nations, the embargo was lifted…but prices didn’t fall. They kept going up during the 1970’s and by 1980 the world price of oil was 10 times what it had been just seven years before. During the 80’s and 90’s, the prices fell and stayed low until the first decade of the 21st century.

So, if you look at it…the Arab Oil Embargo only lasted for 4 months. Other forces came into play to push the price higher. The US economy really took a hit. It wasn’t so much the price rise as it was the rapidity that prices rose. Same thing happened here in the past few years…prices rose so rapidly that no one could adjust and it rose so much faster than the economy, global or otherwise, could rise. But, look at it this way…a few years ago the price of oil was about $35 a barrel. In order for us to equal the situation in the 1970’s, the price of oil would need to go to $350 a barrel. Let us hope that history does not repeat itself.

Show Me The Money!

Someone is getting rich: With all of us feeling the pinch these days and so much uncertainty, it’s good to see that there is enough money out there for a dog to receive a check for $150,000. I don’t think it was written by Ed McMahon.

Golden Retriever Gets $150,000

Violence Erupts over Presidential Election: In Ohio, it is allowed for early voting. At one polling place, a woman came to vote and one poll watcher accused the other of tampering with the ballot, changing it from a vote for Sen. McCain to a vote for Sen. Obama. One poll worker is accused of jumping on the back of the other and hitting him repeatedly in the head. Here is the story of the 73 year old woman who allegedly attacked the 75 year old man. I don’t think the pair was identified as Barbara Streisand and Ted Nugent.

Old Folks Fisticuffs at the “home” Over Election

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 15

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008

1100 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

OMAR HAS A RATHER NON-TROPICAL APPEARANCE THIS EVENING…WITH LITTLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THAT OMAR HAS LOST ITS UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE DUE TO SHEAR…BUT RETAINS A LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM CORE. THAT…COMBINED WITH NO OBVIOUS EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL/SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARBY…MEANS THAT IT REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE THE APPEARANCE. A QUICKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 22Z SHOWED A RELIABLE-LOOKING 65 KT WIND VECTOR AND SEVERAL 60-KT VECTORS. BASED ON THIS…OMAR IS BELIEVED TO HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE UP TO 00Z…BUT HAS NOW LIKELY WEAKENED TO A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…040/22. OTHER THAN THAT…THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE FORECAST TRACK. OMAR IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST…WHICH SHOULD CAUSE OMAR TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HR…AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AFTER 72 HR. THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS FORECAST OMAR TO TURN EASTWARD OVER THE TOP OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE…WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST IT TO BE ABSORBED BY A STRONG NON-TROPICAL LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME…IT IS UNCLEAR WHICH OF THESE SCENARIOS WILL BE CORRECT. THUS…THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR AN EASTWARD MOTION AT A SPEED BETWEEN THAT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED GLOBAL MODELS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WHETHER OMAR WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE CALLED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT OMAR IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING ABOUT 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR…ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE SOME IN THE NEXT 24 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO THAT OMAR WILL DEVELOP ENOUGH CONVECTION TO KEEP IF FROM DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW…BUT NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP IT FROM WEAKENING. THUS…THIS PART OF THE FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER 48 HR…OMAR WILL CROSS THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM…ENCOUNTER INCREASING WIND SHEAR… AND BEGIN MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT 72-96 HR…AND KEEPS OMAR AT 35 KT DURING THIS TIME. IF THE NOGAPS AND UKMET FORECASTS VERIFY… OMAR COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER…THAT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 23.8N 58.1W 60 KT

12HR VT 17/1200Z 26.4N 56.2W 55 KT

24HR VT 18/0000Z 29.3N 54.0W 50 KT

36HR VT 18/1200Z 31.3N 51.9W 45 KT

48HR VT 19/0000Z 33.3N 49.6W 40 KT

72HR VT 20/0000Z 37.0N 43.5W 35 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 21/0000Z 38.0N 35.5W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 22/0000Z 38.0N 28.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Ike Oil Spills? Rain Gauges to be Filled? Women Strip-Searched for Thrills? Cuban Joan of Arc Release Fulfilled? October 6, 2008

HPC Rain Forecast For Wed Oct 8, 2008

If you can’t have the rain you need, you may as well have a great weekend and we certainly had that. Now, its down to business and we’ll see if we can’t get some rain in here. A large, complex storm system is plodding across the nation and will bring some much needed relief by midweek. Look for some high clouds early Monday with the passage of a warm front then just some friendly white puffies in the afternoon with mid 80’s. Tuesday will be similar except we become mostly cloudy late. A few showers may develop Tuesday night and then more general rainfall can be expected with a few t’storms possible on Wednesday. Most of the showers should be out of the area by midday Thursday but the clouds will hang around. I suspect that most people will get a half to 3/4 inches of rain out of this event. Temperatures for those two days will be held down due to the clouds but the mercury will move back above seasonal levels for the latter part of the week into next weekend as the air behind the front is more pacific in nature rather than Canadian. The rain we get won’t require the building of an ark, but should bring some relief to everyone.

Gulf Production Platform After Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Ike Environmental Concerns: Now, Hurricane Ike went over much of the nation’s offshore oil producing concerns and affected a good chunk of the national refining capacity. One can expect some environmental affects. In relation to the number of facitilites affected adversely by extreme weather, the spills were really remarkably little. However, once again, the media insists on hyping things. Notice in the article below from the Associated Press how they say 500,000 gallons, and not 11,900 barrels. (I’ve commented on this before) On the one hand, everyone knows what a gallon is but not as many know what constitutes a barrel. Yet, the media routinely reports oil usage and production in the industry standard of barrels. In recent years, reporters have gone to gallons when reporting oil spills…its 42 times bigger when you use gallons instead of barrels. Anyway, the article begins with saying over a half millions gallons of oil were spilled. Then you read farther and find that there were nearly 450 instances, which is an average of 1100 gallons. Then you read that in the Gulf of Mexico, of the 50 platforms damaged, there was one leakage of oil…One…and it was of 8400 gallons. Kinda gets your attention, until you do the math and find its 200 barrels. 200 is not as sexy as 8400. They try to put in perspective and scare you even more when they say the amount is enough to fill an olympic sized swimming pool. But, considering the amount of oil production and refining facilities affected…that seems like a pretty good track record to me. Read the article HERE and you decide for yourself. In some instances it’s significant, but not as much as they want you to believe.

On This Date In History: In the late 19th Century, newspaper mogul William Randolph Hearst was in a pitched battle for circulation with the Joseph Pulitzer’s New York World. Hearst knew that a war would increase his circulation but the trouble was there was no war. So, when rebels in Cuba started making noise against the Spanish, who were in control of Cuba at the time, Hearst’s New York Journal sent illustrator Frederic Remington to cover the revolution. But Remington no sooner had arrived than he asked to come home because there was no war. Hearst reportedly fired off a message that read, “Please Remain. You furnish the pictures and I’ll furnish the war.”

A Hearst biographer described the tiny rebel faction as an “unkempt mob of brave but disorganized bushwhackers” who had no chance unless they got American help. So, Hearst lent a hand by printing any rebel propaganda that he could find. Remington sent back a graphic drawing of a naked woman being searched and leered at by 3 Spaniards. The Journal’s headline read, “DOES OUR FLAG PROTECT WOMEN?” The Spanish authorities had boarded an American ship and searched 3 Cuban women who were suspected of carrying rebel messages. The photo and the story served to rile up Americans. Trouble was, when the ladies got to New York, they told a reporter from the New York World that women had searched the women in privacy….a little fact that the Journal neglected to tell and Remington’s fantasy illustration did not reveal. Perhaps a more honest headline would have been “Does our Flag Protect Women Who Are Alleged Cuban Spies Hiding on American Ships in Cuban Ports?”

Cuban Joan of Arc or Rebel Leader

That wasn’t the first time that Hearst had altered reality. Prior to that, On This Date in 1897 Hearst scored another coup when he gained the release of the “Cuban Joan of Arc.” Here name was Evangenlina Cisneros and she had been put in prison for trying to kidnap a Spanish military officer. Cisneros claimed that she was trying to repel the man’s advances. Hearst made a big deal out of it and got the support of leaders of American women’s groups. When the Journal sent a reporter, the Spanish released the woman, perhaps in an attempt to quiet American unrest. How does this add up? As it turns out, Cisneros was the beautiful daughter of a rebel leader who was arrested. Evangelina pleaded with the authorities to have her father, she and her sister banished to the penal institution on the Isle of Pines off Cuba’s Southwest coast. Her beauty helped charm, first the general in charge’s son and then the general himself to comply. The Spanish version of the event is that the woman was luring a colonel into her room for the purpose of assaulting him. The girl’s version is that the colonel was trying to blackmail her into becoming her mistress and the other prisoners jumped him to protect her. Nevertheless, Hearst painted a portrait of an innocent young girl being cruelly imprisoned. Here’s the COMPLETE STORY.

The press has great power and today, as then, the press has the power to sway public opinion and shape elections and the general feeling of the country by what they report…and what they don’t report. I’d encourage you to snoop about for yourself and don’t let the press dictate your thoughts.

Anyway, as we know, Hearst got his way eventually when a few years later the USS Maine exploded in Cuban waters. Hearst was quick to blame a Spanish plot and the Americans bought it. Off to war we went, Teddy Roosevelt led his “Rough Riders” and Admiral Dewey led his fleet and the Spanish American War was over in short order with Spain giving up Cuba and the Philippines. Cuba was independent until Fidel Castro took over in 1959 and the result of the Philippines was a protracted effort by America to put down insurgents…a story that is, by the way, a much better comparison to Iraq than Vietnam ever was…its just that today’s reporters don’t know their history so they try the poor comparison with Vietnam. So far, it appears the efforts in Iraq are going much better than they did in the Philippines…but that’s another story…and HERE IT IS

Tropical Storm Gustav and Landslide Lyndon August 29, 2008

for a more recent update on tropical storm, soon to be hurricane Gustav, CLICK HERE

Louisville Weather: The forecast holds. A front coming through on Friday may kick off a few showers or errant t’storms but nothing substantial areawide. Bad news cause we need the rain. But, it will leave us with a spectacular Labor Day weekend with tons of sun and warm afternoons and relatively mild nights.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Gustav 11pm Forecast Track 0828

Tropical Storm Gustav: The forecast generally holds with this cat. Tropical Storm Gustav is holding together pretty well as it moves across Jamaica. In fact its satellite

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0829 00Z

image looks really impressive. It will emerge over the open water and probably strengthen rather rapidly. I still think that this guy has a chance to explode after it moves away from Jamaica. The forecast track is farther west than it has been with it going inland in western part of Vermillion Bay in Louisiana and then to Lake Charles. This is fairly close to the spaghetti model consensus except there is a bit of a difference. Several models become more muddled at the end of the track and move the storm west as it approaches the coast. The intensity graph also reflects a general consensus in the cat 2 or cat 3 range. The track is reflective of the notion that a ridge of high pressure moves across the

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0829 00Z

southern part of the US and slows the forward track then keeps moving east, picks up the storm and resumes its course northwest. What the outlying models seem to be wanting to do is to have that ridge hang tough in the south US and drive the storm west along the coast. What the ridge does I think will end up being a key to the fate of Gustav. There is also a trof in the Gulf. That will be what breaks down the ridge that is currently steering Gustav and allows for its turn northwest. That trof should help increase a southwesterly shear and the models seem to agree that will inhibit the storm. They key, I think, as to whether or not Gustav becomes excessively strong will be if the southwesterly shear materializes and, if so, how much. If the trof is weak enough…or retreats west as many models suggest…it may not have the storm move to the northwest to the extent that the official forecast calls. Texas should still not write this guy off…there are a couple of real scenarios that I can draw that would move the target farther west.

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0829 00Z

Tropical Storm Hanna: This storm is rather interesting because, until now, there was a general consensus of the storm moving northwest and then swinging out to sea. Earlier data supported the idea that a ridge builds in the Atlantic and

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0829 00Z

blocks it, leaving it hung out to dry. The latest spaghetti tracks now even have it moving Southwest toward the Islands. I suppose that might be the ridge that is supposed to move across the southern US blocking and then driving Gustav, emerging offshore to shove Hanna southwest. Either way, I may have to reverse course a bit and say that this guy may be worth paying attention to after all. The forecast is so muddled that there are numerous scenarios. But I will continue to focus on Gustav until Hanna proves its meddle.

On a side note…yes oil prices rose then fell. Why? (story) Well, the dollar went up and, in my view, the weak dollar is probably the biggest reason for the rise in oil prices. Lately, the dollar has risen and oil prices have fallen. Today there a report came out that the economy expanded by some 3.6% which hardly is evidence of a recession. Anyway, I saw a trader on CNBC today who commented that the rigs were very strong and he thought that the markets would recognize the resiliency of the offshore industry. We’ll see. But so far, it seems the fate of the dollar is more important to the price of oil today than Gustav. We’ll see if that holds…let’s hope the Uncle Sam is stronger than Gustav. The 11pm National Hurricane Center 11pm Discussion for Gustav is at the bottom of this post.

LBJ Listened to His Constituents

On This Date In History: On this date in 1948 Lyndon Baines Johnson, who grew up on the Perdanales River in the Texas Hill Country, was basking in the glow of victory. Johnson had forever gained the moniker “Landslide Lyndon.” The night before the young representative had secured the nomination from his party as the

When LBJ Spoke, Sometimes Others Were Forced to Listen

candidate for the United States senate from Texas. His margin of victory? 87 votes. State politics was pretty wild in the Lone Star State at that time and this case it was no different. After the polls closed a “block of votes” just happened to turn up in Duval County. In Jim Wells County, which often had such a high turnout there were more votes cast than eligible voters, the voting totals kept changing. Each side charged corruption. An investigation was held, then halted when the voting lists in Jim Wells county were either “lost” or “stolen.” The ballots on Duval County were burned by the courthouse janitor. And so, Lyndon Baines Johnson was on his way to the United States Senate and later to the White House as the 36th President of the United States.

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
JAMAICA DURING THE EVENING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE KINGSTON
AREA SHOWED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE…AND THE LOWEST OBSERVED
PRESSURE WAS 990 MB. GUSTAV IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF COLD
CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER…WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/6…AFTER A SOUTH OF
WEST MOTION FOR A FEW HOURS. GUSTAV IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS GUSTAV TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR…THEN CONTINUE IN
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 96 HR. THE GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER 96
HR…THERE IS SOME SPREAD…AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
WHETHER A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF GUSTAV. THE
GFDL MOVES THE STORM QUICKLY INLAND…WHILE THE LATEST GFS RUN
SHOWS IT SLOWING DOWN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE NOGAPS CALLS
FOR A LEFT TURN AFTER 96 HR TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT IS DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 72 HR….WITH RELIABLE MODEL FORECASTS
REMAINING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TRACK. SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE
ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5 DAYS…IT IS SIMPLY
IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV
WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. GUSTAV IS SHOWING GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS AT THIS TIME…BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS…WHICH WOULD
ALLOW SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO
RETREAT WESTWARD AS GUSTAV APPROACHES…WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. HOWEVER…THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
HOW MUCH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE…WITH THE UKMET IN PARTICULAR
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHEAR AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99
KT…THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT…THE GFDL 111 KT…AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL. HOWEVER…IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 17.8N 77.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 18.3N 78.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.1N 80.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 20.4N 82.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 21.9N 84.2W 100 KT…NEAR COAST OF CUBA
72HR VT 01/0000Z 25.5N 87.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 28.5N 90.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 30.0N 92.5W 90 KT…INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Gustav Getting More Robust, Now Has a Mate; Fill Up Your Gas Tanks! August 28, 2008

for a more recent update on tropical storm gustav, CLICK HERE

NHC Tropical Storm Gustav Forecast Track 0828 11AM

Tropical Storm Gustav, as expected, is getting its act together and is looking much much better on the satellite. Once it decided to end its Haitian vacation and got out of the mountains of Haiti and back over the friendly confines of the ocean, its numbers are going up while the pressure is going down. Actually, it works in reverse. The pressure is down to 983mb and the winds are up to 70 mph. Anyway, the vector shift overnight to a more southerly component has made it likely that it will encounter Jamaica as it starts to swing more westerly. That will further delay intensification but, after that, it will have little problem getting going good. Now, because it dawdled near Haiti, it has provided more time for a more hostile environment to mess it up a little

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0828 12Z

in the Gulf. In response to a trof coming into the Gulf in a few days, the ridge steering the storm should break down a bit causing the storm to turn to the northwest. Should that trof actually show up as forecast, then it would increase the likelihood of southwesterly shear aloft to mess with

Tropical Storm Gustav Spaghetti Model 0828 12Z

its hat…its upper anticyclone…its upper support. The upper support is what is necessary for a tropical cyclone of any substance. While most of the models on the Spaghetti Intensity Graph do make this a cat 2 or Cat 3 storm, a few still want to ignore the shearing and take it stronger. But, the good news is that, should this shearing, it may limit the storm from getting too strong. However, I do wonder if this guy isn’t just going to explode once it enters the Gulf prior to it getting into a shearing environment. The sea surface temperatures are very warm, it may run across a warm eddy and the environment will be great for a while. The bad news is that, right now, the official forecast has shifted a bit west of New Orleans over the past 12 hours, but not far enough away to prevent the sunken city to be susceptible to a bad storm surge. As seen in the discussion below, there is talk of a

Sea-Surface Temperatures 0828

ridge building ahead of the storm that would slow it down. The boys at the NHC feel that this feature will continue to move and serve to merely slow the progress north and as it goes on its merry way, Gustav will be allowed to enter the United States. Someone should alert the border patrol as I doubt if Gustav is a documented worker. There continues to be many variables like if or when the shearing takes place and how strong it will be as well as when the steering ridge breaks down. Now there is a further concern as to if, in fact, the blocking ridge does materialize and if it does in fact keep moving. The discussion mentions some models that keep that ridge in place and consequently the storm starts to go west prior to the forecast and I’ve seen several of those models. For this reason, if you are anywhere from Pensacola to Corpus Christi, i’d still keep my ears on. There are several days left in Gustav’s life and typically, one of the variables do not behave as expected.

Gustav has a wife now. It’s Tropical Storm Hanna. I’ve seen this feature consistently on the models we use in forecasting locally. A tropical storm or hurricane has been showing up off the Southeast Coast of the United States. The computers thinking all along has

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Intensity Graph 0828 12Z

been for oit to get close and then move out to sea and that’s why I haven’t really mentioned it much….I believe this is Invest 95L. Anyway, the official forecast track at this time is being cautious as there are some models that want to stop Hanna’s progress and have it get cut off from steering currents. I suspect that even if it does that, it would eventually get

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 0828 12Z

caught up in a frontal boundary moving off the US coast. The concern here would be that if the storm is far enough south, it stays below the trof of the front and does not get caught up in a southwesterly flow out to sea so its worth monitoring.

Oh…one other thing….I think I told you people to fill up your gas tanks because oil prices would go up because of Gustav. The oil traders have the same access to modeling data and they know that there is a possibility of a storm going into the region of US offshore oil production, not to mention the huge oil refining capacity around Houston and numerous refineries from the SE Texas coast to New Orleans. So any hint of a hurricane sniffing around will cause the price of oil to be bid higher. This really started on Monday but here’s today’s story. Better Fill’er Up!

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008 THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT ABOUT 1130 UTC SHOWED THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAD BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE EARLIER THIS MORNING. MY SENSE FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE THEN IS THAT GUSTAV HAS STARTED MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD…PERHAPS 265/4. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE CENTER WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER JAMAICA OR WILL HUG THE SOUTH OR NORTH COAST…BUT WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA…ALL MODELS FORECAST GUSTAV TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FOLLOWING FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ALSO FORECAST A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME…BUT SUFFICIENTLY PROGRESSIVE SUCH THAT IT WOULD NOT BLOCK GUSTAV’S NORTHWARD PROGRESS. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA…AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD FORCE GUSTAV TO TURN A LITTLE BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF…BUT THESE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MINORITY. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES SHOW A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST TO BE IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS. RELIABLE MODELS REMAIN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FORECAST TRACK…SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL TRACK. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA…AND ANOTHER AIR FORCE PLANE WILL ARRIVE ON THE SCENE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO REORGANIZE…BUT THE INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO MIGHT LIMIT INTENSIFICATION…ALTHOUGH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH COULD MAKE GUSTAV A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME TODAY. AFTER PASSING JAMAICA…GUSTAV WILL ENCOUNTER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT…FAVORING INTENSIFICATION. ANY INTERACTION WITH THE NARROW LANDMASS OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE STRENGTH OF GUSTAV OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…WHERE WATERS WILL BE WARM BUT WIND SHEAR COULD SLOWLY INCREASE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE FASTER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…BUT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 17.9N 76.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 17.9N 77.1W 65 KT…NEAR JAMAICA 24HR VT 29/1200Z 18.4N 79.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 19.1N 80.8W 80 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 20.2N 82.6W 95 KT 72HR VT 31/1200Z 23.5N 86.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 01/1200Z 27.0N 89.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 91.0W 100 KT…NEAR COAST OF LA $$ FORECASTER KNABB

Apples and Oranges; Propaganda Hits History August 10, 2008

257,000 barrels vs 8000 barrels…is it even close?  Is there any real, honest comparison beyond the talk of oil?

On This Date In History:  This is an interesting story not so much for the event but instead of how it is reported in at least one version of history by a popular cable outlet that people depend on for facts, not for attempts to persuade.  It talks about how three vessels ran into each other in Tampa Bay on this date in 1993.  Okay fine.  The focus of the story should not be on the fact that an oil spill took place. That wasn’t anything new.  But that it was contained using a new technology is what made it significant.  For the first time in history, a computer model was used that took meteorological and oceanic information and produced a forecast as to where the oil slick would go.  As it turned out, the model was right on the money for a six hour window.  That was enough to allow for the responders to the incident to react properly.  Since they knew that the slick would be moving temporarily away from the shore, they were able to react accordingly.  When the goo reached  the beaches of Pinellas County, county emergency crews that had just received training, acted quickly and promptly and most of the wildlife was protected. 

Sounds like a big winner to me…we were able to improve our reaction time to environmental hazards and also it showed that we are able to more safely transport the oil that is needed to keep the nation’s economic engine humming.

Nope…the story mentioned the other part but instead in the first sentence was the following: “A rare collision of three ships in Tampa Bay, Florida, results in a spill of 336,000 gallons of fuel oil on this day in 1993.”  

Now, this statement is true and was significant.  The US Coast Guard considers anything more than 2381 barrels a “major” oil spill.  The story says 336,000 gallons of oil.  Why not barrels?  What the editor would say is that “well…the average reader has no idea what a barrel is or how much it is but they know all about gallons.”  Okay fine.  So, why don’t we report the price of oil in gallons?  Well, they would say “that’s not how it’s traded.”  That is true.  But, what about average readers not knowing about barrels?  How about some consistency.  Is it possible that the writers don’t know that a barrel of oil is 42 US gallons?  You bet it is.  Is it possible that the writers want to make it sound more dramatic so they use 336,000 gallons instead of 8000 barrels?  You bet.  In any event, it has to be one or the other because you can’t have it both ways.

Here’s the real kicker…they ended the story with

“This oil spill was the first major one following the 1989 Exxon  Valdez accident in Alaska. New federal legislation that had been passed in the aftermath of the Valdez disaster assisted in the effort to recover millions of dollars from the ship owners to pay for the cleanup efforts.”

First off, they compare the 8000 barrel spill in Tampa to the 257,000 barrel spill in Alaska….over 32 times more oil in Alaska than Tampa.  There was a tremendous short term environmental consequence in Alaska and almost none in Tampa. They also don’t mention that in Alaska it was crude oil, which is quite different than the fuel oil in Tampa.  Then they conclude by suggesting that somehow Congressional legislation that sent the bill to the ship owners for the clean up had anything to do with anything.  It didn’t prevent further spills, it didn’t help further improve clean ups, it was not responsible for the great improvement in emergency response in the industry.  It did nothing except determine that those who make the mess  have to pay for the clean-up, which is not unreasonable at all and provided a poltical facade for Congress to fool the public into thinking they did anything about anything. 

The story as written is factual…the way it is written in my view is not accurate and is a subtle work of propaganda because it is pushing a point of view.  Do not be surprised if other major media outlets would choose to present “facts” in such a way as to attempt to persuade you instead of inform.  Most likely, it would be slanted in a certain political direction…you can decide in which direction that would be.

Here is the story as it appeared on the History webpage.

 

 

Obama May Want to Rethink Windfall Profit Tax August 7, 2008

Senator Obama has proposed a windfall profit tax on “Big Oil.”  I have seen commercials in which he calls it a penalty.  That struck me as a socialist message.  A Penalty?  The government will penalize a company for it’s success?  Who determines what is too much?  As a percentage the oil companies have made between 6 % and 11% but the numbers are huge.  Do you really want the government to determine who makes too much money?  And if oil is “penalized” for a 10% profit, why not the pharmaceuticals or media companies that often make over 20%?   Where does it stop?  Here is a recent story.

Boston Globe Obama Windfall Profit Tax

Now, here’s the kicker.  ExxonMobil paid $30 Billion in taxes in 2007 and $28 Billion in 2006!  Bet you never read that or heard that in the news.  Why?  In 2006 that was a 41% tax rate!  Is that not enough?  Is not more tax a risk of killing the golden goose?  If you tax too much, then you risk hurting the business and your tax revnue actually decreases.  This happened when under President Carter we tried a windfall profit tax on oil companies.  Is it justified in a supposed free market economy that the government take more than 40%?  Would you want to pay 40% taxes?  Here is the story:

Mark J, Perry, PhD article

Inflate Your Tires For National Security! Get That Lamborghini Tuned Up! August 1, 2008

Senator Obama said on Wednesday in Missouri, “There are things that you can do individually though to save energy,” Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, said. “Making sure your tires are properly inflated, simple thing, but we could save all the oil that they’re talking about getting off drilling, if everybody was just inflating their tires and getting regular tune-ups. You could actually save just as much.”

Now, the radio talk show folks went bananas over this. Obama was trying to make a point that we don’t need to try to increase the supply of oil on the market from domestic sources offshore. I was wondering how he knows how much oil is in the ground or under the ocean. Also, increasing gas mileage is not going to make the US less dependent on foreign oil…we’d just get better gas mileage. Anyway, that’s not the point to this…if you want to look at an analysis of the comment and whether or not it holds water, here is a report from ABC’s Jake Tapper.

Jake Tapper’s Analysis

What I think is funny is that coincidentally right after Sen. Obama’s campaign speech, reports came out that an Arab Sheik had apparently done exactly what the Senator suggested. He sent his Lamborghini in for a tune-up. He put his expensive car on a plane and sent it to London for an oil change and tune up before it was returned by plane. Round-trip distance for the car for it’s oil change? About 6500 miles. But, what’s the controversy? All he did was do what Senator Obama suggested. I guess the Senator should have been more clear on proper procedure for one to tune up the car.

Here is the report and notice how many people claim that the Sheik has somehow added to pollution. That would suggest that the Qatar Airways jet would not have made the trip otherwise. I suspect that the plane would have flown whether the car was on board or not.

Here’s the Story from the Sun

We need thoughtfulness when addressing the Global Warming issue, not emotional reactions that are without merit nor campaign stump lines that over-simplify a very complicated issue that has ramifications in meeting our energy needs, maintaining the economy and examining cleaner ways to run the engine of the nation. It’s a tricky and complicated issue with each subset providing their own complicated issues.

Why don’t people understand that for the time being, we need oil and the more the supply and promise of future supply, the lower the price of oil. We need to develop alternative energy sources that will take time but as it does, we not only reduce pollution levels but also reduce the need for oil. Jobs are maintained, the lifestyle is maintained, jobs are created and the air gets cleaner…and if you want to believe in anthropogenic Global Warming, then you get reduced carbon emissions as well.

Global Warming: Doom or Fraud? IPCC Scrutinized July 24, 2008

Update: Here’s an updated post from Nov. 17, 2008 with a report in which the IPCC admits that it has no quality control over its data collection.

A few days ago, a fellow by the name of Andrew Simms from England published a report that said we may have just 100 months to prevent “uncontrolled global warming.” This obviously suggests that man has the ability to control the earth’s temperatures. That in itself is interesting. Here is his report and a description of Andrew Simms provided at the end of the paper

Climate Crisis: Roosevelt Revisited

Andrew Simms is policy director of the New Economics Foundation (nef), a founder member of the Green New Deal Group, and co-author of its report: A Green New Deal. The report can be downloaded from nef’s website

Now, much of the Global Warming hysteria is based on the IPCC and their report on the subject. In that report, they used a “hockey stick” graph that supposedly showed the earth’s temperatures over many centuries that featured a sharp rise in the last century. However, that data has been discredited a number of times, yet, it made it into the report. One of the naysayers is David Legate, who published a summary of his opposition.

Revising 1,000 Years of Climate History

David R. Legates is Director of the Center for Climatic Research at the University of Delaware and an adjunct scholar with the National Center for Policy Analysis.

To the left is a comparison of graphs. The one that is different from the “hockey stick” is one that includes the data from the “mini ice-age” as well as the period that people claim was the medieval warming period during which Greenland got its name and the Vikings were farming on what is now a frozen tundra. It was always curious to me how the IPCC graph did not reflect both of these periods, particularly the mini-ice age which is well documented and is at least partly responsible for the immigration to America in the 17th and 18th centuries. Note that it suggests it was much warmer during the time of the vikings than today. How can these graphs be so different?

There are a number of scientists who contend that the entire IPCC process is flawed and filled with bias. The claim is that they do not allow independent review, ignore accepted procedures for presenting work by such things as not allowing for peer review, using unpublished reports that have not been scrutinized and ignoring data that does not fit their hypothesis. David Holland published in 2007 a rather lengthy report in 2007 that addressed the inherent flaws with the IPCC and concluded that:

“the IPCC has neither structure nor the necessary independence and supervision of its processes to be acceptable as the monopoly authority on climate science.”

If you care, read this report that was published in Volume 18, Energy and Environment 2007 The link is followed by a brief description of Mr. Holland.

Bias and Concealment in the IPCC: “The Hockey Stick” Affair and Its Implications

Before we jump on the bandwagon, we need to look at all of the facts. If you read enough, you will find that it’s not “settled” and there is no “consensus” and that the UN panel may have deliberately phonied up data and ignored or rejected any opposition to what they wanted to report. That’s not to say they are necessarily wrong, but it is to say that the IPCC apparently, in the view of many people in the science community, has such a wrong process that some suggest their methods would fail even a freshman science course and that they do not follow accepted protocol of review. If that is the case, then it is not remotely possible for them to claim there is consensus.

To be fair, there are others who are pooh-poohing those who dispute the “hockey stick” graph and they have been busy with reports of their own. Perhaps we need to allow the process of peer review and analysis before we make proclamations like Mr. Simms or even Prince Charles just a few months ago. Here is a response from a group that is using their site to spread their “truth” regarding global warming to people like Holland and Legates whose work they claim is part of a “myth.”

Climate myths: The “hockey stick” graph has been proven wrong

Gore, Pelosi Say No To Expanding Oil Supply; China, India, Canada and Spain To Drill Off Florida July 19, 2008

Here are some links to detractors to drilling offshore. They include news stories about Nancy Pelosi and Al Gore as well as another site that is filled with total distortion. Pelosi has the red herring of claiming that there are millions of acres that the oil companies hold drilling leases that are not being used. One second her supporters will claim that the oil companies are greedy and now she thinks that they are not drilling where it is far cheaper to get oil than offshore. If there were reserves in those areas they would be drilling their, don’t ya think madame speaker?

In another instance, the democratunderground site claims they have facts that suggest offshore drilling makes no sense. One of their items claims that in the areas that Sen. McCain wants to drill, which does not include ANWR, there are 19 billion barrels of oil. They claim that means at current consumption it would all be gone in 2.5 years. What morons! The wells will not produce 7.6 billion barrels of oil per year. The rate will be far less and it will add supply to the global market. They claim ANWR wouldn’t come on line until 2017. Nonsense. It took far less time to develop the North Slope. They show a chart of fuel and oil prices during the Bush Administration. Bush has called on more drilling for more supply for years and Congress has punted. Had the Congress agreed to open up areas for drilling, those supplies would be in the world market today.

They make a clever switch. They use hurricane Katrina as an example of the environmental hazard. And there is a risk but that risk is minimized. Remember, the oil companies lose money every day that a rig is not producing. I read in USA Today that Chevron pays over $450,000 a day just to lease a deep water rig and their total investment will be several billion dollars before it begins producing. An exploration company just paid $700 million for one rig! And that’s before they move it into place, put people on it and begin operations. Nearly 3/4 of a billion dollars up front. So they have a vested interest in keeping the rig working and without spills. Every drop spilled is money. For Katrina it says this: “113 platforms totally destroyed, and – more importantly – 457 pipelines damaged, 101 of those major lines with 10” or larger diameter. At least 741,000 gallons were spilled from 124 reported sources (the Coast Guard calls anything over 100,000 gallons a “major” spill).”

Notice how they switch from barrels to gallons. Why? Because a barrel is 42 gallons and would make their number smaller. So, 741,000 gallons translates into 17,642 barrels. That doesn’t grab your attention as much, now does it? And divide that into 124 sites, and suddenly you are talking about 124 spills of an average of 142 barrels per site. I would say that given the amount of destruction, that is an amazingly low number and is a testimony to the safety features that are used and in place. Perhaps that is why they didn’t mention a single site that was a “major” spill….none of the 124 perhaps didn’t fit the criteria? Otherwise, that would have been trumpeted, n’est pas?

What no one tells you is the dirty little secret that Cuba is aligning with China to drill in the Gulf of Mexico. Yup…if we don’t get it, then others will. Heres the story you haven’t heard about.

That get you asking questions? How about this? India, Canada and Spain will also be drilling. And guess what? According to this CNN story, US oil firms were invited to bid on the contracts but were prevented by the US Congress from doing so. If we don’t drill offshore, someone else will. That’s the bottom line. Ask yourself if you would rather have foreign companies getting the oil and natural gas or US companies? US companies pay taxes to the government. The individual states gain millions in revenue and will get even more in 2017 when they will be able to collect royalties from production originating in their territorial waters. There is a suggestion that these other countries will also employ new technology that allows them to drill at an angle and collect reserves closer to the US coast, in US territorial waters. The anti-drilling people don’t tell you all of this, do they?

The biggest thing with all of this is that I don’t think anyone is averse to developing alternative energy sources. The major oil companies are right in the middle of that and in some cases are the leaders in development. Exxon is a leader in developing a better battery for electric cars. Royal Dutch Shell has an entire division dedicated to alternative energy. I’ve seen one of the biggest wind farms in the world near Calgary and it’s owned and operated by Shell. They are energy companies. Texas is putting up windmills on their offshore rigs. But, it takes time to develop that stuff and in the mean time, we need affordable energy.

Al Gore seems to think that a trillion dollars of investment from the private sector over the next 10 years is out there ready to go. But, if you stop current energy use or make it economically nonviable, that capital will evaporate and the economy deteriorate. We will need oil for a long time as the other sources are developed. Right now, it is the most efficient energy source out there. The amount of energy extracted per unit is far in excess of other technologies at this point. That may change. But until it does, we will need it to maintain our way of life and grow for future generations.

Al Gore Story-Wall Street Journal

Nancy Pelosi-New York Times

Democratic Underground

Again…just like global warming…this issue needs to be depoliticized. The folks listed above need to quit being whiners and work toward realistic solutions. They need to concede that we need oil for the foreseeable future. The opposition needs to acknowledge that the national security and economic stability of the nation will require an adjustment from a fossil fuel based economy and help work toward the massive and lengthy change for the future. Market forces will determine the much of the speed of that change but having some incentives and policies that help lead toward that direction would be beneficial, not only to the economic stability of the nation, but also in reducing pollution…including water pollution which no one wants to talk about but is probably the biggest danger we face yet do nothing about it.

When you find out the facts though…NOT drilling makes no sense. As long as other countries think it makes sense, then all we are doing is allowing wealth to be transferred to other nations, some of whom are our adversaries and we are ceding even more control over our own future and the future of our children.