You Can’t Sue God and Only God Can Help Hurricane (Tropical Storm) Omar


Kentucky Hammer Can't Help This Time

Kentucky Hammer Can't Help This Time

for a more recent update on Omar, CLICK HERE

Miracle on 34th Street Decision: Do you remember Miracle on 34th Street? I like the original version with Fred Mertz (William Frawley) advising the judge in the case that would determine whether or not Kris Kringle was Santa Claus. Rather than rule against St. Nick, the judge came up with a creative ruling in that he deferred to the wisdom of the US Postal Service. Well, in a case in which a man tried to sue God, this judge came up with a ruling that would make Fred Mertz proud. Read below:

You Can’t Sue God

Keep an eye on Central America?

Keep an eye on Central America?

Tropical Storm Omar IR Satellite 1017 1445Z

Tropical Storm Omar IR Satellite 1017 1445Z

Hurricane Omar has seen it’s better day: There are a couple of disturbances

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model 1017 12Z

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model 1017 12Z

being monitored. One is the remnant of Tropical Depression 16 in Central America and the other is a little guy off the NE South America. I had mentioned some days ago about the risk of Tropical Depression 16 moving so slowly that it does not move west and increases the chances for it getting caught up in a more climatologically favored flow that would turn it north.

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1017 12Z

Tropical Storm Omar Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1017 12Z

There is nothing to suggest that at the moment. But I do find it interesting that the National Hurricane Center has determined that it is not moving and that they mention that it is not expected to move into the Caribbean in the next two days. If it was not a possibility, then why mention that and why put a time frame on the reference? Probably worth keeping up on if you live in Florida. Hurricane Omar is now Tropical Storm Omar and while the boys at the National Hurricane Center still hang on to the notion that it may have one final chance to kick it back up a notch, I still suggest that it is done for. Certainly, it is not a threat to any major land masses at this point unless it holds together as an extratropical storm on down the line and it affects Europe adversely. Otherwise, it is nothing more than a maritime concern. Here is the National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Discussion:

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008

1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

OMAR HAS RE-INTENSIFIED SOME THIS MORNING AS SHOWN IN THE STRONGLY CURVED BANDED STRUCTURE FROM GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB SUGGESTED 55 KT AT 12 UTC…THOUGH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE WOULD INDICATE A STRONGER CYCLONE AT ADVISORY TIME. ADDITIONALLY…A WELL-PLACED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0922 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 55-60 KT VECTORS AND TWO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…THOUGH THESE MIGHT HAVE SOME RAIN CONTAMINATION BOOSTING THE VALUES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT…ALTHOUGH OMAR COULD BE A MARGINAL HURRICANE. OMAR HAS ACCELERATED TO ABOUT 30 KT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS TROUGH ADVECTS ALONG QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND LEAVES OMAR BEHIND…LIKELY CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM THAT WILL EMERGE OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY IS THE FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO ABSORB OMAR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS…WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS WHICH MAINTAINS OMAR AS A SEPARATE ENTITY AND LOOPS IT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED A BLEND OF A CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS…WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS…AND THE FASTER PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OMAR HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS AND UNDER MUCH STRONGER SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY…OMAR IS MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF…BUT FASTER THAN… THE SHEAR VECTOR…WHICH MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT COUNTERACTED THE OTHERWISE LARGE NEGATIVE SHEAR INFLUENCE. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NEARLY SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN THE MID TO LOW TROPOSPHERE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER …IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM STATISTICAL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 28.9N 55.1W 60 KT

12HR VT 18/0000Z 31.4N 53.2W 60 KT

24HR VT 18/1200Z 33.4N 51.3W 55 KT

36HR VT 19/0000Z 35.1N 49.2W 50 KT

48HR VT 19/1200Z 36.6N 47.0W 45 KT

72HR VT 20/1200Z 39.0N 42.0W 40 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 21/1200Z 40.5N 36.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 22/1200Z…ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

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