for a more recent update on Omar, CLICK HERE
Much cooler air will work its way into Louisville over the weekend. For much of the month we’ve seen temperatures in Louisville in the 80’s, upper 80’s at times. The first front moved through and the rain on Thursday was pretty pathetic but we’ll take what we can get. Officially it was .11″ with the best report from around the county set at just over a quarter inch. There is the second, real push of cooler air set to move through this weekend. An associated upper low will come through on Friday that will increase clouds. There will be a slight chance for an late Friday night shower but it will be very insignificant. After mid 40’s and mid 60’s on Friday. Saturday the clouds will decrease early and we will generally be sunny by the afternoon but highs will only be in the low 60’s. Look for a clear chilly night Saturday night with the upper 30’s in Louisville and low to mid 30’s in the outlying areas. Frost will be possible. But, high pressure moves east and we get a turn around in the flow with Sunday becoming outstanding with a high near 70. Bottom line is that the weekend looks great, just have a jacket or sweater handy.
Hurricane Omar: Earlier I said that I had not analyzed the situation but that a
quick look at the satellite imagery looked like Omar might be encountering a front. Well, the boys at the National Hurricane Center pooh-poohed that idea Thursday evening, specifically saying that there was no evidence of a front. That tells me that they looked but came up with nothing. But, they note that there is a strong shear from the southwest and that Omar has lost its warm upper core. The mid layers are still warm so they are keeping it as a
tropical cyclone. They are openly pondering how much longer that Omar will be able to keep that classification. Bottom line is that this guy is dying and in 48 hours it will move over water that is less than 80 F and I suspect in 36 to 60 hours it will lose it’s tropical moniker, though the official forecast is more optimistic for Omar. The National Hurricane Center Hurricane Omar Forecast discussion, authored by Florida State University alum Dr. Jack Beven can be found below. I know Jack Beven. I went to school with Jack Beven. I can tell you, I’m no Dr. Jack Beven…but from experience I can tell you that I am a better bowler.
On This Date In History: On this date in 1973, the flow of oil to the United States began to run dry. In the early 1960’s, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Venezuela decided to get together and co-ordinate their policies in an effort to raise the price of oil. They called their new alliance Oil Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC). During that decade, other largely Arab nations and Third World oil producers jumped on board. But, they largely failed until the early 1970’s as there was an increase in global demand and a decrease in US oil production.
While OPEC was having a little meeting in Vienna in October 1973, Egypt and Syria attacked Israel. It became known as the Yom Kippur War because it began on October 6, 1973 on Yom Kippur. Israel took it on the chin for a few days but thereafter pushed back and, after receiving aid from the US, Netherlands and Denmark, the Israelis pushed the Syrians out of the Golan Heights and went so far west as to cross the Suez Canal when a cease fire was put in effect on October 26, 1973.
Even though Syria and Egypt weren’t part of OPEC but on October 17, 1973 it was apparent that things weren’t going so well for the pair of attackers so OPEC decided to help out in the geopolitical arena by initially saying that it would decrease exports to the US and other Israel supporters by 5 percent a month until Israel returned to pre-1967 war borders. Global oil prices went up 70%. By December, OPEC made it an all out embargo and the price of oil went up another 130%. It wasn’t long before oil prices were up 400%. After US Secretary of State Henry Kissenger negotiated a deal between the warring nations, the embargo was lifted…but prices didn’t fall. They kept going up during the 1970’s and by 1980 the world price of oil was 10 times what it had been just seven years before. During the 80’s and 90’s, the prices fell and stayed low until the first decade of the 21st century.
So, if you look at it…the Arab Oil Embargo only lasted for 4 months. Other forces came into play to push the price higher. The US economy really took a hit. It wasn’t so much the price rise as it was the rapidity that prices rose. Same thing happened here in the past few years…prices rose so rapidly that no one could adjust and it rose so much faster than the economy, global or otherwise, could rise. But, look at it this way…a few years ago the price of oil was about $35 a barrel. In order for us to equal the situation in the 1970’s, the price of oil would need to go to $350 a barrel. Let us hope that history does not repeat itself.
Someone is getting rich: With all of us feeling the pinch these days and so much uncertainty, it’s good to see that there is enough money out there for a dog to receive a check for $150,000. I don’t think it was written by Ed McMahon.
Violence Erupts over Presidential Election: In Ohio, it is allowed for early voting. At one polling place, a woman came to vote and one poll watcher accused the other of tampering with the ballot, changing it from a vote for Sen. McCain to a vote for Sen. Obama. One poll worker is accused of jumping on the back of the other and hitting him repeatedly in the head. Here is the story of the 73 year old woman who allegedly attacked the 75 year old man. I don’t think the pair was identified as Barbara Streisand and Ted Nugent.
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2008
OMAR HAS A RATHER NON-TROPICAL APPEARANCE THIS EVENING…WITH LITTLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THAT OMAR HAS LOST ITS UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE DUE TO SHEAR…BUT RETAINS A LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM CORE. THAT…COMBINED WITH NO OBVIOUS EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL/SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARBY…MEANS THAT IT REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE THE APPEARANCE. A QUICKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 22Z SHOWED A RELIABLE-LOOKING 65 KT WIND VECTOR AND SEVERAL 60-KT VECTORS. BASED ON THIS…OMAR IS BELIEVED TO HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE UP TO 00Z…BUT HAS NOW LIKELY WEAKENED TO A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…040/22. OTHER THAN THAT…THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE FORECAST TRACK. OMAR IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST…WHICH SHOULD CAUSE OMAR TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HR…AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AFTER 72 HR. THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS FORECAST OMAR TO TURN EASTWARD OVER THE TOP OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE…WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST IT TO BE ABSORBED BY A STRONG NON-TROPICAL LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME…IT IS UNCLEAR WHICH OF THESE SCENARIOS WILL BE CORRECT. THUS…THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR AN EASTWARD MOTION AT A SPEED BETWEEN THAT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED GLOBAL MODELS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WHETHER OMAR WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE CALLED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT OMAR IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING ABOUT 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR…ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE SOME IN THE NEXT 24 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO THAT OMAR WILL DEVELOP ENOUGH CONVECTION TO KEEP IF FROM DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW…BUT NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP IT FROM WEAKENING. THUS…THIS PART OF THE FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER 48 HR…OMAR WILL CROSS THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM…ENCOUNTER INCREASING WIND SHEAR… AND BEGIN MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT 72-96 HR…AND KEEPS OMAR AT 35 KT DURING THIS TIME. IF THE NOGAPS AND UKMET FORECASTS VERIFY… OMAR COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER…THAT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 23.8N 58.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 26.4N 56.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 29.3N 54.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 31.3N 51.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 33.3N 49.6W 40 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 37.0N 43.5W 35 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 21/0000Z 38.0N 35.5W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 22/0000Z 38.0N 28.0W 35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
$$ FORECASTER BEVEN