Hundreds Dead, Thousands Homeless and Hungry in El Salvador Following Hurricane Ida

Is Flooding In El Salvador News To You?

Thousands Homeless in El Salvador

While Hurricane Ida fizzled, as expected, prior to making a US landfall near Mobile, AL it’s previous life was much more eventful and devastating.  In El Salvador, well over 100 people are dead and scores more missing after some of the mountainous areas of the Central American nation got 14 inches of rain in just four hours.  (See photo gallery)  Some 10,000 in El Salvador are in need of food.  However, from reading the reports, one can surmise that all of the rain that El Salvador received was not directly related to Hurricane Ida.  Reports claim that it rained for 5 days and US Navy Meteorologists suggest that an area of low pressure was drawn in from the Pacific in the wake of the tropical cyclone as it passed by.  But the bottom line is that rain brought mud and boulders cascading down the side of a volcano that buried towns and villages.  There was fear of such an event in the Philippines when Typhoon Mirinae crossed the region of the active volcano Mount Mayon.  Those fears were not realized but El Salvador did not fair as well.  Nicaragua took the initial impact of the minimal hurricane on November 5, 2009 and reports of damage and flooding as well as contaminated water supplies have prompted relieve efforts from Catholic Relief Services to that nation.  Some are comparing the rain and devastation to Hurricane Mitch in 1998 that killed some 11,000 in Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador and neighboring Central American nations.

The Commodore Was Stylish

On This Date in History:  Commodore Cornelius Vanderbilt was worth $104 million when he died on January 4, 1877 at the age of 83.  That was about $2 million more than the US Treasury had in its possession.  Literally, richer than the government and, therefore, perhaps almost as powerful.  In 2007 inflation adjusted dollars, the figure comes to over $2 billion.  He made 90 percent of his fortune from railroads.  The odd thing is that Vanderbilt hated railroads and wanted nothing to do with them until he was 68 years old.   In his lifetime, railroads represented the new emerging market, so why would he be so adverse to such a once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity? 

Early Locomotive on Camden & Amboy RR More Like Iron Pony Rather Than Iron Horse

Well, Vanderbilt had done quite well for himself with a fleet of schooners that he contracted out to the US government to supply forts. That’s where he got the nickname “Commodore.”  As the steamships came about, he took advantage of that new technology and also subverted to law to make gains in that business.  Ultimately, he was vindicated by the US Supreme Court that broke a New York State monopoly granted to Robert Fulton.  Steamboats were fine for him but not steam locomotives.  His aversion dated back to this date in 1833, when he lay near death.  Cornelius Vanderbilt had the unfortunate distinction of being part of the nation’s first railroad accident the previous day.  He was a passenger on the Camden and Amboy Railroad bound for Perth Amboy, New Jersey.  An axle broke and the train jumped the track.  In America’s first fatal train wreck, two people were killed and the Commodore was left with two broken ribs and a punctured lung, which was often a fatal condition in 1833.  Riding in the car ahead of him was former President John Quincy Adams who was not hurt.

NYTimes Saw Vanderbilt as the New Colossus

The Long Island Railroad provided service between Boston and New York with a steamboat transfer.  Guess who owned the steamboats?  In 1844, Vanderbilt was elected as Director of the Long Island Railroad and in 1857, he got the vote as the Director of the New York and Harlem Railroad.  I suppose as director of two railroads, he could see the potential financial windfall and the dollar signs in his eyes overcame any psychosis he had in his head.  Secretly, he began selling his assets in the steamboat business and began buying up shares of the New York and Harlem Railroad in 1862.  He was worth $11 million when he began he started riding the Iron Horse and he never got off.  The stock soared to $50 a share.  He then bought the Hudson River Railroad in 1864 and then the New York Central Railroad in 1867.  While the Civil War raged on, it was business as usual for men in the North like Vanderbilt.  His acquisitions continued with some controversy but, eventually, he owned a railroad network that connected the eastern seaboard to the western frontier in the northern plains.  Wonder what he would have done had he really liked railroads?

Veterans Day History is Interesting But it Doesn’t Take a Scholar to Say Thank You.

Thank You

On This Day, Thank a Veteran:

Original "Armistice Day" Honoree

Prior to noon on November 7, 1918 United Press president Roy Howard sent a cable to the New York headquarters: “Urgent. Armistice allies Germans signed 11 smorning hostilities ceased 2 safternoon.”  Midday papers blared the headlines and celebration erupted.  Trouble was, it wasn’t true.  Howard had gotten the news from US Admiral Henry B. Wilson who commanded the US Navy in French waters.  Seems that the admiral was duped by German spies.  Wilson manned up and admitted it was his fault, thus saving the reputation of the United Press.  Turns out, the news wasn’t wrong, just premature.  Just 4 days later, on November 11, 1918; on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month, the “Great War” was over.  A year later,  November 11, 1919 was proclaimed “Armistice Day” to commemorate the end of the “Great War” now better known as World War I. 

Sir, we salute you.

It was thought at the time that there would never be a greater conflict.  By the 1940’s, it was evident that was not the case. In 1920 at the urging of church groups, President Wilson named the nearest Sunday to November 11 “Armistice Sunday.” In 1921, Congress approved the building of the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier at Arlington National Cemetery and designated November 11, 1921 as a Federal holiday for all who participated in the “Great War.” In 1926, Congress called on the President to give an address each Armistice Day and most states in the decade mark the occasion with a holiday.

Now, in 1938 Congress adopted November 11 as a Federal holiday. But, Congress only holds the power to grant Federal employees holidays. It’s up to the states to designate holidays but since most states already have the holiday, the Federal government really followed the states lead in contrast to most other national holidays in which the states follow the Fed’s lead. World War II and Korea come and go so President Eisenhower officially changed the name from Armistice Day to Veterans Day.

It Doesn't Take Much Effort

For some reason, Congress in 1968 messed with the tradition.  Perhaps it was an effort to save money or just a good gesture to give everyone a 3 day weekend, or maybe they were caught up in the turbulent 60’s.  In any event, Congress decided to make the 4th Monday in October Veterans Day, taking effect in 1971.    All the states moved their holidays except for Mississippi and South Dakota. By 1975, the majority of the states had moved it back to the original November 11. The Federal Government capitulated and changed the Federal holiday back, beginning with November 11, 1978.  Not only was the day considered sacred at its inception, it somehow held that same position later in the 20th century because when the government tried to change it, the citizens through the state legislatures, basically told the Feds to shove off and returned it to its proper place. This is not Memorial Day, but if you choose to honor those who made the ultimate sacrifice for this nation, then please do so. But, Veterans Day to me is for the living…so if you don’t go to a ceremony or church service today, take the time to thank a veteran. I do it everytime I meet someone who served. Like Mother’s Day, I don’t just tell my mother that I love her on Mother’s Day. In any event, it’s not hard, just reach out your hand and say “thank you.” They earned it.  Too often we run around saying we “support the troops” or are grateful for living in this nation but never thank those who are responsible.

Weather Bottom Line:  Eric noted that I haven’t given too much attention to local weather lately, but he surmised it was because it was boring.  He’s right…pretty uneventful.  And that trend will continue.  Some folks may see the upper 30’s on Wednesday night and our highs Wed and Thu will be in the upper 50’s and low 60’s.  Then mid to upper 60’s on Friday as high pressure drifts to the east.  Then we get around 70 on Saturday before clouds start to move in on Sunday ahead of another not-too-strong system that may bring a few showers late Sunday into Monday.

Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald Still Haunts 34 years Later

Edmund Fitzgerald

Storms Can Be Brutal On Lake Superior

On This Date in History: On this date in 1975, Gordon Lightfoot got the inspiration for a song and 29 families got news that they never wanted to hear. The Edmund Fitzgerald sunk about 17 miles from Whitefish Bay in Lake Superior.  Here is a history of the Edmund Fitzgerald from the Detroit News and here is the story of the Edmund Fitzgerald from the NOAA office in Marquette Michigan.  The ship was a huge iron ore carrier, some 729 feet long.  It was carrying ore when it ran into a big storm in extreme weather conditions. The ship and the one it was traveling with, the Arthur M. Anderson tried to steer for the safety of Whitefish Bay to get out of the 60 mile per hour winds and 10-20 foot waves.  The Fitzgerald lost its radar and the Whitefish Point radio beacon was knocked out. The Anderson was behind the Fitzgerald and maintained contact with the ship.  Fitz captain Ernest McSorely reported in his last message that he had two damanged vents and that the ship was listing. When asked how he was handling his problem, McSorely responded, “we’re holding our own.” Shortly thereafter, the ship vanished from the Anderson’s radar screen. No one knows what happened. The Anderson reached port and was asked to go back out and look for the Fitzgerald.  In a display of great courage, the Anderson went back into the storm to look but found nothing.   This is a fantastic video tribute to the crew of the Edmund Fitzgerald.  It has news footage, radio reports from the ships, footage of the Edmund Fitzgerald and photographs of the crew to the music of Gordon Lightfoot.

Route of Anderson and Fitzgerald

It took some time to locate the wreck but it was found in two pieces in 530 feet of water. On July 4, 1995 the bell was recovered and replaced by a replica with the names of the 29 men who went down with the ship. It is now forbidden to dive on the wreck. The investigation into the incident concluded that the hatches weren’t secured properly and that the ship took on water to the point that when a wave crashed into it, it simply went down. But, skeptics say that there would have been time for a distress call. McSorely had been in contact with the Anderson and never reported any water being taken on, though something caused the list.

Development of Storm that Sunk the Fitzgerald

In the wreck, the chains that made up the deck railing were broken, indicating perhaps that there was tremendous stretching going on. Speculation is that a rogue wave came along….its one that comes out of nowhere and is many times larger than other waves. Either that wave picked up the ship and drove it nose down into the water or, the ship became perched above two wave peaks and the trof in between caused the ship to split in two and sink immediately. Another theory which is accepted by many mariners is that the ship scraped bottom at Caribou Island Shoal and that is why McSorely reported that the ship was listing. The answer will never be known. But, it does show that, even with modern techonology and modern equipment, nature has the final say.

Weather Bottom Line:  After a cloudy Tuesday with perhaps a light, brief shower with the frontal passage, look for plenty of sunshine and moderate temperatures through Saturday.  Lows in low to mid 40’s, highs in low to mid 60’s.  Upper 60’s on Saturday.  Sunday, clouds return with the approach of another system.  The outflow from Ida is probably responsible for the suppression of shower activity with the current front moving through the area.

Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Track Eyes Mobile Bay Landfall as it Weakens Rapidly

Tropical Storm Ida Satellite Loop (click for most recent)

Tropical Storm Ida Water Vapor Loop (click for most recent)

Hurricane Ida has behaved as expected for the most part. You can access the Mobile National Weather Service Radar Here. You can also tell from the satellite loop above, it doesn’t really look like a tropical cyclone anymore but instead a run-of-the-mill area of low pressure.    In fact, if you look at the Tropical Storm Ida Water Vapor Loop to the left, it really looks like it doesn’t have much in the way of tropical characteristics.  As it moved north during the day, it ran into colder water.  By the afternoon, it was over water with a surface temperature of 26 C which is below the critical level to sustain tropical cyclones.  As it moves north, it will move into increasingly colder water.  Also, it encountered strong wind shear.  Late Sunday night, when I saw the Vortex message from the Hurricane Hunters, I noted that it was showing a rise in pressure and an open section of the eyewall and suggested that perhaps it was already beginning its demise even though the winds had increased to 105 mph.  By late Monday afternoon, Hurricane Ida was no longer and Tropical Storm Ida was back with us as winds had dropped to 70 mph, though observations showed a small area of hurricane force winds that the boys that the National Hurricane Center determined was a local anomaly and not indicative of the circulation.  The shear had become so pronounced that early afternoon observations from the Hurricane Hunter indicated that the center at 700 mb was already shifting away from the center at the surface, indicating that the shear was really ripping up the integrity of the structure.

Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Track (click for most recent)

By late afternoon/evening, Ida was located 40 miles ESE of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 125 miles South of Mobile and was moving north at 17 mph.  Much of the convection was on the north and east side of the storm, again indicative of a storm getting ripped up and perhaps transitioning to an extra-tropical cyclone.  The 00Z Tuesday Tropical Storm Spaghetti Model had more than half of the tracks now not looping back but instead are following a track that I had advocated for several days, which would be from Pensacola to Savannah, GA.  It looks like a Mobile Bay landfall,  50 miles west of Pensacola will be likely.  One thing that I did get wrong, unless it really slows down, is that I had thought that the NAM solution of a day ago of a landfall around 00Z Tue was all wrong and I liked somewhere around midday on Tuesday.  It seems more likely that an early morning landfall is in the cards, provided  that it doesn’t slow down too much and I just think with the shear increasing ahead of a trof coming across the Gulf ahead of a cold front will keep it moving along.   I also think that if the front can keep its legs, it will come and pick it up and take the remnant something north of east and I think that a lot of the models are picking up on that same line of thinking.

Atlantic Total Precipitable Water Loop (click image for most recent)

All in all, this will be a storm that will bring a minimal storm surge with some gusty winds.  I noted a buoy about 40 miles south of Orange, Alabama with winds of about 35 kts gusting to near 45 kts and seas were running about 16 ft.  The biggest issue with this will be rain, especially for areas well east of the landfall point.  Even though I would think that Ida will be off the Atlantic Coast by Thursday, I would think that an area from say Tallahassee to Savannah to Daytona and maybe as far south as Cedar Key will have 36 to 48 hours of decent rain that could accumulate and cause some problems.  The 10PM EST advisory has Tropical Storm Ida with maximum winds of 65 mph.  The central pressure is 997 mb.  24 hours ago, it was 979 mb and 105 mph winds.  So, it has weakened substantially.  Ida was located about 100 miles SSW of Mobile and had slowed a bit with a northerly track of 13 mph.  It is expected to turn NNE overnight.  At this speed, landfall would be at about 6 am EST Tuesday morning.  See discussion below the Tropical Storm Ida Spaghetti model 00Z Tue.

Tropical Storm Ida Spaghetti Model (click for most recent)

WTNT41 KNHC 100300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
900 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CONVECTION THAT WAS NEAR THE
CENTER DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED AND SHEARED OFF TOWARD THE
NORTH.  THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX THAT POSITIONED
THE CENTER EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA WELL SOUTH OF THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION.  THE FORWARD SPEED OF IDA HAS SLOWED TO
ABOUT 11 KT.  THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A CONTINUED
REDUCTION IN THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE STORM AND A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST AFTER LANDFALL.  THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 12 HOURS AND IS THEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD
CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
OF 71 KT AND A SMFR SURFACE WIND OF 51 KT.  THIS SUPPORTS AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT.  IDA SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS.  ONCE INLAND THE
CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE
BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN 36-48 HOURS AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF IDA’S LANDFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE
SIGNIFICANCE SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COVER A LARGE
AREA AND MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS ALREADY SPREADING ONSHORE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/0300Z 29.3N  88.6W    55 KT
12HR VT     10/1200Z 30.8N  87.9W    40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     11/0000Z 31.5N  86.5W    30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     11/1200Z 31.3N  84.8W    25 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     12/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

Did UFO’s Cause the Great New York Blackout in 1965?

I remember the huge moon

UFO selective in turning off the power?

Who Turned out the Lights? On this date in 1965, the lights went out in the Northeast. Biggest power outage in US history. It’s cause was found to be from a relay station at Niagara Falls, the Sir Adam Beck Station Number 2 in Ontario, Canada. Here is  number of sources regarding the history of the 1965 blackout that was particularly difficult since it began during rush hour in New York. I remember my father being stuck in the RCA building in New York and the lights being out at home. The moon was huge and we sent my sister out to investigate what that large object was…we weren’t so sure it was a moon.   The whole episode could be traced back to the 1950’s when post-war America expanded rapidly and power requirements soared for public and commercial use as well as for private homes as new electric devices became available and affordable. 

NY Hospitals Had to deal with no power

Power companies developed a “grid” which was a system in which power stations in one utlity’s area was connected with power stations in another utility’s area via high voltage power lines.  The idea was to be able to control the balance between power generation and service demand over a large area.   When the relay station near Niagara Falls failed and disconnect a transmission line, it was a relatively minor failure on its own.  But, since it was part of the interconnected grid, the result was an escalating sequence of line overloads.  The line overloads raced down the main trunklines and that in turn separated main power sources with major sources of major demand.  Around New York City, power plants automatically shut down to prevent an overload of their turbines.  It took just 15 minutes for the entire Canadian-United States Interconnection area to go down.  The lights went out at 5:27 pm on November 9, 1965 and power was restored to all of New York City by 6:58 am on November 10. It took six days to pinpoint the cause….or was that just a cover story?

Has Anyone Seen a UFO?

Maybe it was a UFO because, according to some conspiracy theorists, the big power outage in 1965 was caused by a UFO. Here is the UFO angle and it’s relation to the Johnson White House.   Never mind that it happened again in 2003 and never mind that it is acknowledged that our electric grid is antiquated and susceptable to catastrophic, large scale failure. No…it was an UFO.  Here is a summary of the whole caper.  Look at these UFO reports from the late summer and fall of 1965 and analyze these UFO reports from Nov 9, 1965 yourself!  Truth or Fiction?  Apparently one demonstrated part of fiction from the Great Northeast Blackout was that the birthrate in the region skyrocketed 9 months later.  This story was spread by a  series of three stories in the New York Times in August 1966.  But, that storyline was debunked by J. Richard Udry in a study the demographer from the University of North Carolina published in 1970.  That’s no fun though…when myth collides with fact, go with the myth!

Weather Bottom Line:  Perhaps it is what is left of Ida cutting off the moisture, but our front coming through does not appear to be interested in bringing much rain.  The NAM has nothing and the GFS throws out .01″.  So, look for cloudy skies on Tuesday and then cooler and mostly sunny conditions for the rest of the week.

Hurricane Ida In Gulf with 100 mph winds; Will Be Weakening at landfall in US

Hurricane Ida Satellite Loop (rainbow IR click image for most recent)

See update on pending Ida landfall near Mobile Bay. For latest satellite, radar, forecast track, spaghetti model CLICK HERE

Cancun Radar of Hurricane Ida Passing Through Yucatan Channel

Hurricane Ida is moving through the Gulf of Mexico and the Hurricane Ida Forecast Track takes it inland near Pensacola, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast and  Hurricane Warning flags have been hoisted from Pascagoula, MS to Indian Pass, FL which is near Applicachicola.   A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect westward to New Orleans and eastward to Aucilla River, FL.  For the past two days, I have been suggesting that the more conventional solution should be considered rather than the forecast track established by many models which called for the storm to loop back out to sea.  In many regards, it made no sense.  The National Hurricane Center went along with the consensus modeling but I figured the models would eventually come around, and they have.  Yesterday, I had observed the satellite imagery and concluded that it was certainly possible for Hurricane Ida to be something stronger than the forecast intensity of 70 kts.  By late Sunday afternoon, Hurricane Ida had sustained winds of 105 mph.  As it came through the Yucatan Channel, Cozumel Radar showed very distinctive banning and a decen, though not perfect, circulation structure.    Even though Ida spent 48 hours over land, it is now stronger than it ever has been.

Gulf of Mexico Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) Not Conducive to Supporting Tropical Cyclones

I would think that Hurricane Ida does not have much more time to get stronger.   In the first place, if you look at the sea surface temperature analysis, you will note that the lighter orange shades in the Yucatan Channel correspond with sea surface temperatures something less than 30 degrees C but more than the minimum required of 28.5 C.  As the shading progresses farther north, it goes darker and darker toward brown.  That is representing falling water temperatures and it would appear to me that when you look at the central Gulf of Mexico about even with Tampa, the temperatures at the surface are below 28 C, which means that Ida will begin to die then.  By the time you get to about 150 miles off the US Gulf Coast, water temperatures are in the lower 20’s C.  Remember, we’ve had several strong cold fronts in the past few weeks that have reduced water temperatures in the shallower waters. 

Atlantic Total Precipitable Water Loop (click image for most recent)

The other factor in Hurricane Ida’s demise will be strong southwesterly shear ahead of a trof that is moving across the Continental United States.  That just happens to come into play in about the same spot as where the water temperature falls before critical levels.  So, while that upper wind has been serving to enhance the northern outflow of Ida and helped enhance its intensity, it will be the same factor that will help kill it.  By late Sunday, the hurricane hunter aircraft noted a central pressure of 976 mb, which is fairly impressive. However, a later recon mission revealed the pressure had risen to 980 mb, there was an 8 mile circular eye that was open to the east.  So, the Sunday night observations may be an early indication that Ida has seen its best days and the decline has already begun.   But, then again maybe not because the flight level winds were higher on this pass from the last going from a maximum flight level (700 mb) wind of 94 kts to 108 kts.  It’s kinda interesting that the hurricane hunters reported hail on their latest venture into Ida.  In any event,  in contrast to the most recent observations, the NAM, GFS and NOGAPS models have respective central pressure at landfall of 1004 mb, 1004 mb and 1009 mb.  That is pretty pedestrian and is indicative of just how far and how fast Ida is expected to fall apart.  It may indeed become extra-tropical.  That is really not an issue because that has more to do with the structure of the storm and wherever it makes landfall, residents can expect a storm surge, heavy rain and gusty winds. 

Hurricane Ida Forecast Track (click for upates)

As I outlined the previous two days, it seemed likely that this guy would get caught up in the southwesterly flow ahead of the trof and be kicked to the northeast like any other low pressure area.  While it is falling apart and becoming a run-of-the-mill low, it will still be an area of low pressure and I think will act accordingly.  If it got completely absorbed, then it wouldn’t be a distinct low and therefore no longer an entity to be tracked.  In any event, everyone seems to me on board with a landfall in the US.  The NAM wants to take it into New Orleans on Monday night.  The GFS likes Monday night around Mobile or Pensacola while the NOGAPS likes Mobile/Pensacola but is looking for a Tuesday night landfall.  The NOGAPS solution is probably more accurate as to timing and location but I bet the GFS and NAM idea of a 1004mb low is probably a better call than the NOGAPS 1009 mb suggestion.  The ultimate truth of the landfall time will probably be sometime in between the NOGAPS and GFS/NAM timing.  I’ll vote for Tuesday early afternoon.

Bottom line is this.  Hurricane Ida has been tabbed as a 90 kt hurricane with gusts to 110 kts based on the latest recon data but will be hard pressed to maintain its hurricane status at landfall.  In fact, there it may be likely that it will be considered extra-tropical.  So what.  North Florida, South Georgia, South Alabama and even perhaps South Carolina can expect gusty winds and heavy rain Tuesday into Wednesday as I would think the ultmate path may go from say, Pensacola to Savannah.  A cold front sweeps it all away and that will be the end of that by Thursday.  See the official discussion below the Hurricane Ida Spaghetti Model image that you can click on for the most recent update.

Hurricane Ida Spaghetti Model (click image for most recent)

Hurricane Watch/Warning Map

000
URNT12 KNHC 082332
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL112009
A. 08/23:04:40Z
B. 22 deg 47 min N
  086 deg 25 min W
C. 700 mb 2948 m
D. 80 kt
E. 355 deg 4 nm
F. 099 deg 103 kt
G. 359 deg 8 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 7 C / 3069 m
J. 17 C / 3054 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. OPEN E
M. C8
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0411A IDA                OB 29
MAX FL WIND 108 KT NE QUAD 22:09:20Z
HAIL AND CONT LIGHTNING  N QUAD

WTNT41 KNHC 090301
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
900 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF IDA HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE THE
AIRCRAFT DEPARTED THE HURRICANE JUST BEFORE 0000 UTC.  DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF PASSES THROUGH THE CENTER THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 108 KT AND A SFMR SURFACE WIND
OF 84 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT.  ANOTHER AIR
FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO REACH IDA AROUND 0600 UTC.

THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES PROVIDE A FAIRLY CONFIDENT INITIAL
MOTION OF 345/12…A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  IDA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GULF MEXICO AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE TRACK MODELS
APPEAR TO BE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THE 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE AND SHOW A TRACK NEAR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS…THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS TRACK…BUT IS A LITTLE
FASTER.  AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…THE MODELS
TURN IDA EASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT…BUT DOES NOT SHOW AS SHARP A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AS SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE INDICATES.  THE AIR FORCE ALSO FLEW A SURVEILLANCE
MISSION AROUND AND NORTH OF THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT
DATA SHOULD BE ASSIMILATED INTO THE 0000 UTC MODELS.

IDA IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE COOLER WATERS…AND MOVE INTO A
COOLER AIRMASS AND INCREASING SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IT WILL ALSO
LIKELY BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  HOWEVER…IT IS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY THAT IDA WILL RETAIN ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
THROUGH LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND ALL SHOW IDA AROUND HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE AND KEEPS THE
CYCLONE A HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.  THIS HAS REQUIRED
THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/0300Z 23.7N  86.7W    90 KT
12HR VT     09/1200Z 25.8N  87.5W    85 KT
24HR VT     10/0000Z 28.5N  87.7W    75 KT
36HR VT     10/1200Z 30.5N  87.1W    65 KT…INLAND
48HR VT     11/0000Z 31.2N  85.8W    40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     12/0000Z 30.5N  82.0W    30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT     13/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Woman Gets Amnesia After Sex; Nation Has Amnesia Regarding 1st Woman Elected to Congress

We’ve heard of amnesia.  Few of us have ever really encountered anyone actually getting amnesia and our knowledge of the condition is generally limited to tv shows or movies.  There was the recent case of the man in Seattle who apparently had amnesia.  Many people speculated that he was faking it.  But, amnesia is apparently more common than we think.  Transient Global Amnesia occurs with some frequency in people over 50.  It is triggered when there is strenuous activity.  That would include bowel movements.  That’s got to be some trauma…both the event that caused the amnesia and the resulting amnesia.  But, there is another fairly common causation.  Sex.  This woman suffered from amnesia after sex with her husband.  Oh, she finally recovered but she can’t recall one thing: having sex with her husband.  Experts say she must have had fun.

On This Date In History: The 19th Amendment to the Constitution that guaranteed women the right to vote was not ratified until August of 1920. However, on this date in 1916, Jeanette Rankin(bio) was basking in the glow of becoming the first woman elected to Congress on the previous day. How does that work?

Well, western states were in a somewhat leadership position regarding suffragettes. Wyoming gave women the vote in 1869 when it was still a territory. Utah, Idaho and Colorado voted for the suffragettes by the turn of the century. One must remember, there is no such thing as a Federal Election. All elections are state or local. So, states can pass their own voting laws. Rankin was from Montana and after working in New York as a social worker and getting involved in the women’s suffrage movement. She moved home to Montana in 1914 because she believed that the western states offered the best opportunity to gain women’s suffrage due to their pioneering spirit that she thought gave more respect to women and their ability. She was right because shortly after she moved there, women in Montana got the right to vote. She was elected to Congress in 1916 with strong support from men and women. When she went to Washington, the nation looked to see if she could handle the office.

Several books on Rankin Available (click image)

Handling the office was not an issue. What became an issue was her strongly held beliefs. She was elected as a Progressive Republican and she held strong pacifist views. When the vote to enter World War I came up, she voted against it. Even though 55 other Congressmen voted against it, she was ridiculed by many as not having the ability to take on the responsibility of national office. Others though said she showed strong, courageous leadership in her vote. She remained in office through World War II. She held on to her convictions and voted against that war too. She is the only member of Congress to have voted against the United States entry in both world wars. This time, she voted alone.

Old Gal Still Stirred things up in 1960's

Seems Jeanette was one of those who thought that President Roosevelt had deliberately provoked the attack on Pearl Harbor. That didn’t sit well with anyone, including her constituents in Montana. So, instead of being defeated, she declined to run in 1943. But, she wasn’t done. In 1968, the 88 year old Rankin led a march on Washington to protest the Vietnam War. Rankin died in 1973 but you’ve to admire her. While I would not necessarily agree with her positions, one has to acknowledge that, unlike most politicians, she had a core belief and never knuckled under and remained active in promoting that belief until her last breath. Rather remarkable on many levels if you think about it.  The Jeanette Rankin Foundation awards scholarships or low-income women over the age of 35.

Tuesday 7 AM wet drive to work?

Weather Bottom Line:  A spectacular Sunday will lead us into an almost equally as nice Monday.  Perhaps it’s time to use up that extra sick day for the year.  Highs again will be in the low 70’s with some folks perhaps pushing the mid 70’s.  But, clouds will be on the increase late in the day.  A cold front is sweeping down from the west and northwest.  Chances for rain will start to increase late Monday evening and continue to rise into Tuesday when there will be a pretty fair chance for rain and maybe some rumbles of thunder.  However, I suspect that the best chance for rain will be sometime before sunrise to just after midday so there will probably be insufficient heating to create much noise.  The rest of the week into the weekend look pretty quiet with highs in the low 60’s with mid 60’s perhaps by Friday.  It is this front that will pick up Hurricane Ida.

Tropical Storm Ida could soon to be Hurricane Ida again; Ida Forecast Track slightly more clear

Ida IR Rainbow Satellite Loop (click image for most recent)

See latest on Cat 2 Hurricane Ida in Gulf with Cancun Radar image, sea surface temperature, satellite image, forecast track CLICK HERE

Ida Forecast Track (click image for most recent)

Tropical Storm Ida is behaving itself though it looks to be in pretty good shape.  As noted yesterday, as the storm came offshore, the convection in the center exploded and the intensity was raised to 60 kts and there was some thought that perhaps it may become a hurricane by nightfall.  But, a little southerly shearing came into play and the late night advisory kept the storm at 60 kts.  Ida appears as if it will more or less thread the needle through the Yucatan channel thus keeping its center of circulation over water between the Island of Youth in Cuba and Cozumel near the top of the Yucatan Peninsula.  As mentioned previously, the satellite image if fairly impressive and there are strong winds aloft to the north of the storm.  The official forecast reflects the potential for some good outflow that may provide for an uptick in the intensity to that of low end Hurricane status.  I won’t be surprised to see it go higher than the current forecast of 70 kts.  That same shear, however, will then serve to mess up the storm and so the forecast calls for it to fall back to tropical storm status.  Confidence is pretty high through Monday. (see discussion below)

Total Precipitable Water Loop (click image for most recent)

After that, a cold front comes down into the Gulf.  Now, yesterday I opined that the then forecast of it turning back southeast seemed a bit improbable to me.  I thought a conventional viewpoint of the storm getting caught up in the strong southwesterly flow ahead of the trof, thus shooting the storm northeast, would be something to consider.  Only two of the models though played out that scenario and the hurricane center went with the consensus of the modeling data.  However, later model runs have taken the storm farther north, then north northeast toward the Florida Panhandle.  In doing so, the storm is expected to be so influenced by the front and colder water over the northern Gulf (we’ve had a lot of strong cold fronts lately) that Ida becomes Extra-Tropical.  The official forecast then turns the storm southeast as the thinking is that it gets absorbed by the front and moves with the front to the southeast.  I know the models say that but several go ahead and take the remnant of Ida into the extreme southeastern US. 

Gulf of Mexico IR Loop

I contend that solution is still something that should be considered given that the low will have forward momentum and also there will be those strong southwesterly winds.  I mean, a conventional low moves up along a front with a strong flow and I’m not so sure that an extra-tropical cyclone is just going to get absorbed into nothing and, if it were, then there would be no center of circulation to track.  Seems to me that if it is still a distinct circulation center, it would  run up the front.  Now, its true, the models do take the storm back south, but I contend that climatology and the fact that the storm is transitioning from a tropical system that is may be possible that the models are confused.  In any event, its an interesting academic discussion.  As it stands, regardless, winds will get pretty gusty in the Florida panhandle.  I suspect that there will be pretty heavy rain along that front too, given the amount of moisture being drawn northward.  With the increase in convection with a disturbance coming from the Bay of Campeche, I would think that anywhere from New Orleans to Tallahassee will get a pretty good dose of rain.

Ida Spaghetti Model (click)

WTNT41 KNHC 080246
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
1000 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF IDA
SINCE THE AIR FORCE PLANE LEFT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST ALTHOUGH RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS
BEING IMPACTED BY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD
AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY…WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND AN OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE OF 61
KT.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE IDA IN A FEW HOURS TO PROVIDE UPDATED INFORMATION.

IDA HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 340
DEGREES AT 10 KT AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
MEXICO AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. TO HISPANIOLA.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS ON A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION…AND
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THEREAFTER…ALL THE MODELS BRING IDA TO THE
COAST NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BUT
QUICKLY TURN IT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE ABSORBING COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF.

ALTHOUGH SOME SHEAR IS AFFECTING IDA…IT IS NOT PROHIBITIVELY
STRONG.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ARE PROVIDING
SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT…AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE IDA A 24-36
HOUR WINDOW TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE.  THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AFTER 36 HOURS AND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME WEAKENING…BUT THE
NEW INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WEAKENING COULD BE
SLOWER TO OCCUR THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  IDA SHOULD BEGIN THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS AROUND 48 HOURS AND BE FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDA AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS ALREADY PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…BUT THESE WINDS ARE NOT
DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE CIRCULATION OF IDA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/0300Z 20.1N  84.6W    60 KT
12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.2N  85.3W    70 KT
24HR VT     09/0000Z 23.0N  86.5W    70 KT
36HR VT     09/1200Z 25.4N  87.6W    65 KT
48HR VT     10/0000Z 27.7N  87.9W    60 KT
72HR VT     11/0000Z 30.0N  86.5W    45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT     12/0000Z 29.0N  85.5W    35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/0000Z…ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN

Greatest Bridge Collapse in US History Captured in video and photos

Tacoma Narrows Bridge: A Big Mistake

On This Date In History: On this date in 1940 one of the greatest engineering boondoggles was uncovered in Washington. The Tacoma Narrows Bridge opened in July 1940 to great fanfare. With a span of 2800 feet, it was the third longest bridge in the world. The builder decided to save money by making the bridge only 39 feet wide to support just two lanes of traffic. It was designed to withstand winds of 120 mph. People flocked to the bridge after it’s opening, not just because it was faster than the ferry, but also because moderate winds that are common in the area would make the bridge sway and even undulate up and down. Drivers reported losing sight of the autos in front of them when the bridge waved. The bridge gained the moniker “Galloping Gertie.”

Brave (or stupid) Pedestrian

All the fun and games came to a crashing end on November 7, 1940 when steady winds of just 42 mph made the bridge sway…and then leap. It continued throughout the day until the entire structure failed. The bridge had been closed but the last man let across lost control of his car and, in fear of being tossed 190 feet into the Tacoma Narrows below, he fled on foot. He tried to retrieve the family cocker spaniel from the back seat but the pup would have none of it. As he reached the end of the bridge, the bridge collapsed spectacularly with the dog as the only casualty.

The result of the collapse was analysed and is a common subject in college physics classes. Basically, the wind was in tune with the natural harmonics of the bridge. The more the wind blew, the greater it increased the amplitude of the harmonics creating a wave. Its a similar phenomena as when a singer breaks a glass. To avoid a similar fate, bridges today, including the one that replaced “Galloping Gertie” have damping and aerodynamic features built in and wind tunnels are used to test the ability of the structure to resist wind and prevent compromise of the integrity of the structure.

Here is the 1940 Newsreel Footage of the Collapse of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge

Here is a different, color film on video of the collapse

Whatever man builds, can come down. Gravity and other forces are constantly at play. There are some things in life in which compromise can be a good thing. But engineers cannot afford to not get it right the first time. It kinda reminds me of what US Grant often said, “man proposes; God disposes.” These days we often teach our kids that close is good enough. If that is your methodology, mommas don’t let your babies be engineers.

Weather Bottom Line:  Great Weekend. Enjoy it.

Hurricane Ida, Tropical Storm Ida, Tropical Depression Ida; Uncertainty heading into the weekend.

Ida IR Rainbow Loop (click image for most recent)

See latest as Tropical Storm Ida becomes Hurricane Ida and enters Gulf CLICK HERE

Gulf IR Loop-Note Activity in Bay of Campeche

Former Hurricane Ida is moving along as expected so far and for the next day or so, there is a pretty fair consensus on what is going to happen.  After that, well…there are a lot of scenarios.  Reports from Honduras and Nicaragua claim rain totals of up to 20 inches in some locations with some flooding and wind damage from the initial impact when Ida was a minimal hurricane.  It quickly fell back to a tropical depression and, almost exactly as forecast, moved offshore of the northeast coast of Honduras on Friday evening.  Ida emerged with a circulation but with the bulk of the convection on the northern half.  The southern half of the storm was almost void of any convective activity.  However, after just a few hours offshore, substantial convection began exploding in all sectors.  The intensity forecast is difficult to determine but this sudden burst makes me think its going to be interesting.  A couple of models suggest it becoming a hurricane again, but the NHC is dismissing those, citing an idea that wind shear will develop and prevent such an solution.

Ida Forecast Track (click for most recent update)

Over the next couple of days, Ida is expected to get a little better organized as it moves with a general northern component through the Yucatan Channel, though places like Cancuun and Cozumel will be affected.  Unlucky for tourists.  A cold front is still looking to move into the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday and begin to influence the storm.  The National Hurricane Center has gone with the idea that the southwesterly shear from the trof will transform Ida into an Extra-Tropical Storm.  That means that the physical structure will go from a tropical low, which is a warm core low, to a cold core low.  Pragmatically, that is not so much of a big deal because extra-tropical storms can produce extremely strong winds and bring excessive rains.    I would think that the storm would get swept northeast.  But, there have been several models that want to take the storm back to the southeast once it gets into the Northwest Gulf.

Atlantic Total Precipitable Water Loop

I have to be honest.  This is extremely complex. There is another area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche and the models are all over the place. I don’t think the Southwest Gulf system will do much except draw a lot of moisture into the US Central Gulf Coast but I do think its presence is helping to confuse the models.  The discussion from the NHC (see below) is no help and provides no explanation.  My maps don’t go far enough south to provide an answer as to why the storm would go back southeast instead of getting picked up by the trof and scooted northeast.  I am left to assume that the answer is that Ida gets by passed by the trof crossing the United States and leaves it behind or it gets shoved south by the front.  But, what leaves me a bit befuddled is that, if it is involved with the trof sufficiently to transform it to a extra-tropical storm, I would think that the trof would have enough influence to pick it up.  I’ve got models running deep lows anywhere from New Orleans to Tallahassee or back to the southeast with a couple taking it northeast.  This points out the difficulty of models to pick up on not fully developed tropical systems.  These models are designed for tropical cyclones and when they turn extra tropical, the models can get confused…and so am I.  Stay tuned.

Ida Spaghetti Model

WTNT41 KNHC 070233
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
1000 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009

A 2302 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
OF IDA WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND
WAS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE CENTER…AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 25 KT AND 30 KT…RESPECTIVELY.
NOAA BUOY 42057…LOCATED ABOUT 150 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER…RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 35 KT…BUT
IT APPEARS THAT THIS OCCURRED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SQUALL AND MAY
NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION.  THEREFORE…IDA
IS KEPT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY…BUT IT IS
PROBABLY VERY CLOSE TO REGAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

IDA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 360/6.  A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER MEXICO
ARE EXPECTED TO STEER IDA NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 72
HOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE THE EASTERNMOST MODELS AND
HAVE FORCED THE MODEL CONSENSUS A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST.  THE
FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS IS STILL COMPLEX AND IS DEPENDENT ON HOW
IDA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS IDA BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY
96 HOURS ONCE IT MERGES WITH THE FRONT…BUT THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON
WHERE THE LOW GOES NEXT.  ONLY THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW
IDA BECOMING PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.  THE OTHER MODELS INDICATE A
MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HOURS…AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST NOW SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AT 120 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH WATERS ARE WARM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER MUCH INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE IDA A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO…A SCENARIO THAT DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THE FACE OF
WESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KT BY DAY
4.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT PEAKS THE INTENSITY AT 45 KT…WHICH IS
JUST BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

IT IS OF NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/0300Z 16.2N  84.0W    30 KT
12HR VT     07/1200Z 17.1N  84.2W    35 KT
24HR VT     08/0000Z 18.4N  84.8W    35 KT
36HR VT     08/1200Z 19.7N  85.5W    40 KT
48HR VT     09/0000Z 21.4N  86.5W    45 KT
72HR VT     10/0000Z 25.5N  88.0W    45 KT
96HR VT     11/0000Z 27.5N  87.0W    45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N  85.6W    35 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BERG