Aussie Psychiatrists Detect 1st Case of “Climate Change Delusion”; How did Zach Die?

Global Warming delusional?

There are those who claim that proponents of anthropogenic global warming are lunatics. The word lunatic has actually become a catch all phrase for anything from people with wild ideas, to those who disagree with us to those who are actually mentally ill. It actually arises from early times when it was thought that mental illness had something to do with the phases of the moon, thus the latin root usage of luna.

Call Bob Hartley!

It would seem now that researchers have in fact found a psychiatric condition related to global warming though it is not for the proponents but instead for some who may have developed a deep seeded fear of the phenomenon that is so widely talked about in the press and other media. Here is a story about it from the Melbourne HeraldSun, the actual article and a commentary. You can make of it what you will.

However, I will say that if this condition is true for this young man, then it would be evidence that perhaps there needs to be more responsible reporting and discussion on the topic and stop the hyped up stories and just give the facts without scaring people literally out of their minds.

Melbourne Herald Sun-Doomed to a Fatal Delusion over Climate Change

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry report cited by HeraldSun

Commentary From related science blog Regarding Report

Now, before someone starts labeling me a “global warming denier”, let me assure you that I am not.  In my view, there are many questions to be answered as I believe from my experience in science that man sometimes tends to lose all humility and think he has all of the answers when in fact, he has just scratched the surface in many areas of science, not just atmospheric and climate research.  Scientific “fact” is often replaced by new “facts” that seem to render the old “facts” obsolete.  In this case,  a quick search did not find any other credible sources beyond a couple of doctors from the Melbourne’s Royal Children’s Hospital that wrote in  the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry that refer to global warming delusions, but did find this somewhat less than credible source.    So, while the newspaper sources made the reports, one must remember that just because it’s on tv or in the paper and certainly on the internet, that it is true.  However, there is at least one fairly credible source and it should not be thrown out just because it doesn’t fit your world view, just as it’s true that any data that comes out regarding global warming, one way or another, should not be dismissed out of hand.  It should be scrutinized and put through the peer review process, which at least one Physics organization and  many other have suggested that parts of the IPCC report did not go through. 

Sell Me San Francisco or Else!

On This Date In History: Explorers wandered up and down the Pacific Coast for years before someone decided to snoop about an inlet in what is northern California. In 1769, the Spanish found it and saw it as a strategic asset. In 1776, while the colonists on the other side of the continent were in rebellion, the Spanish founded San Francisco de Asis, which means St. Francis of Assisi. The outpost was the northern most in the Spanish empire and later was the same with Mexico. In 1835, US government made the Mexicans an offer that they should not have refused. Uncle Sam offered to buy the settlement and the Mexicans refused. I believe it was Santa Anna who turned down the Americans generous offer. I guess he was too busy putting down a rebellion in Tejas to consider such real estate deals. By 1846, the Mexicans found themselves in a war with the United States over the southern border of what by that time was the state of Texas.

San Francisco March 1847

Not long after hostilities commenced on this date in 1846, Captain John Montgomery sailed his US warship into San Francisco bay, dispatched a group of marines and promptly took San Francisco de Asis without firing a shot. The Americans must have thought the name was too long and shortened it to simply San Francisco. In 1848, the Americans dictated terms of the end of the war with the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo that not only forced Santa Anna to turn over San Francisco, but also about 55% of his territory which included all of California, Nevada and Utah, most of Arizona and parts of Colorado, Wyoming and New Mexico. Santa Anna did get $15 million for his trouble. But Santa Anna just had bad luck. Not long after he made the deal, gold was found in California which yielded many many more millions than he got. Gold, silver and other precious metals and natural resources were later found in the entire region. He should have taken the San Francisco deal to begin with.

It just so happens that a big shot general in the Mexican War was Zachary Taylor who used his battlefield prowess to propel him to the Presidency. He was elected a few months after the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo in November 1848. On July 4, 1850 President Taylor attended Independence Day festivities on a hot day in Washington DC and for some reason ate a bunch of cherries and washed them down with milk. He returned to the White House and drank a bunch of water. On This Date In History President Taylor promptly died. The cartoon at left suggests it was from lemonade which I cannot find suggested anywhere else. I had read that he died from eating too many sweet potatoes but that story seems to have gone by the wayside. There was talk in modern times, though surprisingly not in his day, that he was poisoned because he was a staunch unionist and threatened to personally lead a military attack against any state that tried to secede. In 1991, some of these conspiracy theorists convinced the Taylor family that they needed to dig up the former President from his resting place in Louisville to solve a crime. The DNA results were negative. Imagine that.

So, they were back to the original cause of death, which was described as gastroenteritis. Now, many say that Taylor succumbed to Cholera, probably ingested through the milk or water. Regardless, he died on this date in 1850 and you can visit him in Louisville. Snow White and I have done so a few times. If he had not passed away as President, we may never have heard of his successor, Millard Fillmore. Well…maybe it made no difference because not too many people have heard of Millard Fillmore.

Weather Bottom Line:  Boring weather.  Upper 80’s today.  Maybe an isolated t’shower.  Friday and Saturday, low 90’s and much more humid.  Again, isolated t’storm…probably better chance on Saturday.  A front sneaks down Saturday night or Sunday which will raise the prospects of more numerous storms.

Massive Solar Storm Predicted by Crop Circles, One Observatory-NASA silent; Underwear Stories

Photo of Sun supposedly shot July 6 shows huge sunspot

Recent Crop Circle in England

One of our local regular readers, Cruxshadows, brought forth some interesting information and a question.  A crop circle in England predicts 5 massive solar eruptions which will affect the earth.  Now, these Coronal Mass Ejections, were to begin yesterday.  But, the crop circle forecast does fall within the time frame of the noted increase in solar activity cycle.  If this does occur, then there will be great interest to see how the plasma reacts with a breach in the earth’s magnetosphere, which was found by NASA in December of last year.  Of course, there’s no word on how the crop circles got there in the last ten days of June.  The crop circle caper seems to mesh quite nicely with this report yesterday of the largest sunspot ever witnessed  It also fits in with the idea that, with the sun’s 11 year cycle, we are in a period of increased solar activity with the peak not expected until 2013.  

NASA says the sun is quiet

Here’s the problem.  NASA reports the exact opposite.  It claims in its 3 day forecast from yesterday that solar activity was “very low” and that “no x-ray flares were observed during the past 24 hours.”   It predicts that solar activity will remain very low.  So the question on the table from Cruxshadows is, do we believe the government (NASA) or do we believe those who interpret the crop circles?  Do we believe NASA’s report that nothing much is going on or do we believe the report of Wappa Falls Observatory claiming that so much is going on that  “the flares have been so bright that NASA has had trouble taking accurate pictures of the sunspot.”  I’ve found other stories about  the Australian observatory’s claims, but there seems to be a disconnect.  I suppose we’ll find out the veracity of the crop circle prediction and the Wappa observations soon enough.  But Cruxshadows wants to know whom to believe?  The government, the Australian astronomers or the Crop Circle?  Two things to note.  The Wappa Falls Astronomical Observatory in Australia doesn’t seem to have a website, which seems a bit odd in the 21st century.  Further, the stories that I’ve found seem to come from the same source.  Hoax? maybe.  Guess we’ll have to wait and see. I question why NASA would cover this up or how they could make such a mistake?  It doesn’t make sense, to me.

F stands for Floods

I have an old friend. Let’s just call him “F”.  “F” once pondered how men didn’t really get into the scene, if you know what I mean, when a man and woman in a movie shoot a sex scene.  I suppose the idea of professionalism gets tossed out in “F’s” world.  But, you gotta  admit, some of those scenes, even on the soap operas, can get pretty steamy.  Maybe too steamy for some viewer’s taste.  Anyway, it seems that actor Ryan Reynolds was given a little insurance that he didn’t get to worked up during a nude scene with Sandra Bullock in his recent movie, The Proposal.  Ryan Reynolds wore cellophane underwear. 

Reynolds: See-Through Undies?

A Louisiana man was arrested after a 72 year old woman called the police after she heard noises and saw someone in her backyard going into her shed.  The Alexandria Town Talk reports the man was clad only in his undies when the police clapped the old bracelets on him when they witnessed him trying to break into the woman’s house.  Maybe he was looking for some hand-me-downs.

Meanwhile, in Britain, the recession is hitting hard.  So hard, in fact, that people apparently aren’t going out on the town so much.  So, people are having to improvise.  Lingerie and “racy underwear” sales are up over 50% since the recession began.  Not sure who took the time to find out that odd statistic.  I guess it gives a new meaning to “a cheap date.”

On This Date in History: THIS MAN WAS SAVED BY ANOTHER MAN’S UNDERWEAR!!! John Wesley Powell was a self-taught geologist and naturalist who had lost his right arm at the Battle of Shiloh. He is credited with charting the Grand Canyon and went on to lead the US Geological Survey and Bureau of American Ethnology. When making what would be the first trip through the Grand Canyon with a 9 man party down the Colorado River, they stopped to do some surveys. On this date in 1869, the one armed Powell and George Bradley gingerly moved along a shear cliff when Powell made a short leap and found himself stuck with no where to go. Bradley was above him and tried to find a branch or something to extend to Powell, whose legs and one hand were giving out. Quick thinking ensued. Bradley stripped off his long underwear and lowered them down. Bravely, Powell let loose with his hand and quickly grabbed the dangling drawers. The fabric held, Powell was pulled to safety and he lived to tell about it and map the Grand Canyon. If this story happened today, can you imagine the commercials? “Acme Longjohns….So tough it saves lives!”

Weather Bottom Line:  Remember that I mentioned the boundary sagging down our way and potentially bringing some insignificant showers here?  Well, I wasn’t too enthused about the prospects so Snow White and I ventured out to do some sculling yesterday afternoon and it was wonderful, though I got a little overheated.  Had a headache all night.  Well, it just so happens that the airport reported .01″ of rain this morning!  Aha! Vindicated.  But who cares, right?  Other than that little bit of information, everything else is on line.  Upper 80’s today, maybe a stray afternoon t’storm.  Upper 80’s tomorrow.  Low 90’s Friday and Saturday with maybe an errant storm on Saturday with activity more likely on Sunday as another front tries to make its way our direction.

Who is paying for the Michael Jackson Memorial? Is it Hoover Dam or Boulder Dam?

Who is footing the bill for Jackson's memorial?

LA Mayor Volunteers to Pony Up the Money?

Los Angeles is in the midst of a $500 million budget shortfall. So, when Michael Jackson’s memorial service takes place today, who is going to pay for all of the police officers necessary to control the crowds. According to ABC News, the City of Los Angeles will be footing the bill, which is expected to be about $2.5 million.  An LA Times blog asked the question, “should taxpayers be responsible for Michael Jackson’s memorial service?” In that text, it says that the Los Angeles budget shortfall is only $360 million.  Whatever.  What is interesting is that, on the same day, the LA Times business section has a story that claims Jackson’s estate could be a “thriller of a profit machine.”   So, we have a situation in which, presumably, the family wants to have a public memorial service with free tickets for Michael Jackson whose estate is expected to genererate millions of dollars a year.  Yet, the cash strapped city, that is laying off workers, is expected to pick up the tab.  Indeed…the LA Times raised a good quesiton, should the taxpayers be expected to pick up the tab for the memorial service? You make the call.
On This Date In History: This is a tale filled with politics so it’s confusing. Back in 1902, Arthur Powell Davis, an engineer with the Bureau of Reclamation, came up with an idea for a dam along the Colorado River at a place called Boulder Canyon. Herbert Hoover, an engineer by education himself, was Secretary of Commerce in 1921 and he made it a priority to support a high dam at Boulder Canyon. Plans were set for the project to be begun in 1922. Well, there was Congress to contend with and water rights and states rights…lots of politicians. So the project didn’t get started until This Date in 1930. By that time, coincidentally, Herbert Hoover was the 31st President. It was also the beginning of the Great Depression and Hoover wanted to be re-elected. While work started on July 7, the official ceremony commemorating the beginning wasn’t until September when Hoover’s Secretary of the Interior, Ray Wilbur, declared the project would be known as the Hoover Dam. It was appropriate since Hoover had been instrumental over the years in getting the project going. But, Hoover also wanted the project to bear his name to remind people of all the jobs he had created. It didn’t work. Hoover lost badly to Franklin D. Roosevelt.

Frank Didn't Think Herb Deserved a Dam Named For Hiim

As the project was getting started, it was determined that geologically it was better suited down the river in Black Canyon. Nevertheless, it was still called the Boulder Canyon Project and on May 8, 1933, Secretary of the Interior Harold Ickes(father of the current Democrat politician with the same name) declared that the name of the project would no longer be known as Hoover Dam, but instead Boulder Dam. FDR had been in office for a few months and erasing any mention of Hoover perhaps was high on the priority list of helping the US to be fearless against “fear itself.” This of course even though the dam was being built in Black Canyon. In 1947, President Harry Truman signed a resolution of the Congress changing the name back to Hoover Dam….but the town built for all of the workers is still Boulder City. When I was a kid we stayed in a motel in Boulder City that looked like it was from the set of National Lampoon’s Vacation. Christie Brinkley didn’t show up though.

Here’s a link to all sorts of stuff about Hoover Dam including a bunch of photos from the 1930’s. Notice that it is called the Boulder Dam Project..AKA Hoover Dam. There are some things of which some people will not let go, Congressional resolution and Presidential signature or not!

Weather Bottom Line:  There is a little wrinkle in the forecast. I saw this yesterday but didn’t mention it because it seemed so pedestrian.  But, we have a weak front trying to come down late Tuesday.  The 18Z GFS Monday indicates a tenth of an inch of rain late Tuesday.  The NAM has some moisture but no rain.  The other models are equally as non-commital.  As of Monday night, the official forecast makes no mention of rain and for most people, that will be probably correct. But, I betcha we will see a number of clouds with some scattered showers.  After this guy goes back on the retreat, we will get a southerly component to the windflow and the temperatures will rise to the low 90’s by the end of the week and humidity levels will continue to rise, probably to a rather uncomfortable level by the end of the week.

Althea Gibson: American; First US effort battling Air Pollution was a nice start, but the job’s not done

On This Date in 1957: American Althea Gibson won the women’s championship at London’s All English Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. It is known as the Wimbledon Championship. She was the first American of African heritage to do so. In the 1940’s she had won the national black women’s championship twice. Tennis was largely segregated but National champion Alice Marble lobbied on Gibson’s behalf and in 1950 she was invited to play at the US Open. In 1956 she won the French singles and doubles title. After winning Wimbledon, she went on to win the US Open in September of 1957. In 1958, she won Wimbledon and the US Open again. She was the AP Female Athlete of the Year in 1957 and 1958.   She went on to become the first African American woman to be on the LPGA tour. 

Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier in baseball in 1947 and has his place in the annals of the Civil Rights movement. However, the achievements of Althea Gibson should not be overlooked.   Gibson was a product of the tough streets of  Harlem and went on to be a guest at the Royal courts of Europe.  Like Robinson, she was an inspiration to many, overcoming the racial prejudice of the time and paving the way for the likes of Venus and Serena Williams.  Her humility was exemplified by a famous quote (s) that she made:  “No matter what accomplishments you make, someone helped you. ” She was a true American Champion on many levels.

Victorian London Smog

On This Date in 1955,  the US began investigating cleaner air.

The first air pollution control efforts began in 1306 when England’s Edward I banned the use of sea-coal in craftsman’s furnaces because of the noxious smoke emissions. In the early 20th century, the automobile was seen as an environmental savior because it eliminated the need for animal power. Animals produce wastes that piled up in cities and created a health hazard. But, as I’ve talked about often on these here pages, there were unintended consequences. Air pollution was largely seen as a nuisance not a health problem until 1952 when London suffered some 4000 fatalities when it was shrouded in what was called the “killer fog.” Analysis revealed it was caused by the reaction of nitrogen oxide and hydrocarbons with ultraviolet radiation. The result was the formation of low level ozone…or 3 oxygens clinging together. On July 6, 1955 the US the first Air Pollution Control Act in an effort to study the effects of auto emissions. Obviously, it wasn’t enough because they amended that act then others followed in 1963, 1970 and 1990. I think it’s safe to say that more can be expected. This American Meteorological Society doucument tracks the evolution of air pollution legislation

City of Angels Shrouded in Pollution

The EPA tracks the evolution of modern air pollution and regulation. It’s interesting to me that it says that the idea of air pollution control evolved from the need for water pollution control. That water pollution problems as a health hazard has been known since the early Middle Ages, yet, we continue to poison ourselves through our rivers, lakes, streams and oceans. We get all worked up over a potential problem that would alter civilization yet ignore one that is actually killing life on earth as we speak.

Here is the EPA Origins of Modern Air Pollution Regulations

Weather Bottom Line:  High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest.  With a slight northerly flow, we will remain relatively dry with a warm afternoon in the low to mid 80’s.  The northerly component will persist somewhat over the next couple of days so, while we get to the upper 80’s, humidity levels will still be subdued.   However, by Wednesday afternoon, the high drifts to the east and we begin getting a southerly component to the winds.  Temperatures will ease to the low 90’s and humidity will become an issue by the end of the week.

Data Suggests the Ozone Hole May Be Growing, not Improving. The Media has been silent

Not Much Change in Ozone Hole from '87 to '99

Ozone Hole Plot

Remember the Ozone hole in the Antarctic?  The chart at the right appears to show that the ozone hole is growing, not shrinking, which would be at odds with those who think that the problem is solved.  In fact, a 2006 report showed that in that year, the ozone hole was at record levels.  Didn’t see that in a movie or on the news, did you?   I reported in November 2008 that the Ozone hole was the 5th largest recorded in history. 

 In my mind the depletion of the ozone layer is the gravest concern regarding global pollution, followed by water pollution.  I mentioned previously that one could argue that lack of clean water is potentially a bigger threat than global warming.  I consequently got called a “global warming denier” even though I said no such thing.  My contention is that the debate is and should continue as to the cause of rising global temperatures.  But, no one seems to talk much about ozone depletion. 

Record Ozone Hole 2006...Is the Hole Growing?

The reason why I put the ozone issue at the top of the list is that without the ozone, all life dies. Period.  Global warming will alter the planet markedly, potentially cause economic and political upheavel and alter certain species habitats.  It would be a mess.  Water pollution is more dire, in my view, because it is definitely happening now and bodies of water are dead and people around the world cannot get clean water which is a basic need of life.  But ozone…that’s an end gamer.  While its been forgotten by the media and most in the public, research continues and recently, there was an acknowledgement of the continuation of the ozone hole when it was postulated that perhaps, the Antarctic Ozone Hole might be responsible for an increase in sea ice, which would answer why sea ice has been growing in Antarctica instead of shrinking as per the global warming model. 

In the 1987, Congress and other political bodies around the world agreed to the Montreal Protocal that would cut in half the production of chemicals that were seen to destroy the ozone layer by 1998.   Further study was done and in 1992 it was determined that the ozone layer was in worse shape than was originally thought, so an agreement was hammered out to end halon production completely by 1994 and CFC’s by 1996.   If you want the most recent stuff on the Ozone hole, NASA has Ozone Watch. 

Here’s the rub about the whole thing.  In 1987, the cutbacks on Halons and CFCs began.  The ozone hole continued to grow.  That would be expected because aerosols released at the surface generally take about 15 years or so to reach the stratosphere.  Hence, a reaction to the legislation wouldn’t be felt for some time.   The science was supposedly “settled” in the eyes of the public and the media.  So no one much paid attention.  A few years later, it is found that the settled science was wrong!  So much for ending discussions among scientists.  So, the conclusion was that things were worse than previously presented and so halons and CFC’s were banned altogether.  Much of what has been written lately claims that the problem is getting better.  But if you look at the chart at the upper right, you find that the 2008 level of depletion is less than the 97-98 peak, but still higher than in recent years.    The problem is still there.  Whether or not last year was an anomoly or a trend remains to be seen.  But focus needs to remain sharp.  Like water pollution, this is a real threat that we know for certain is happening.  The facts have changed over time and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it change again.  Wonder what would happen if it were found that the ozone depletion was part of a larger phenomena that we are not aware of…something that passing a few laws cannot change?  But, man loves to think that he is in charge and can do anything.

Weather Bottom Line:  We have a frontal zone set up just to our south.  Overrunning moisture is producing clouds that will keep our temperatures in check.  A wave will run along the front to the south and produce some pretty good t’storms.  I think the official forecast has some sort of risk for t’storms around here but, like yesterday, unless I see some sunshine then I won’t be too worried about that.  Once the wave passes, the front will get energized and move farther south taking the clouds with it.  High pressure will build in and we’ll have sunshine with seasonal temperatures for the much of the week ahead.

Unknown Speaker Spurs Colonies to Declare Independence-King George Clueless.

ON THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY, REMEMBER THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE EVENT. THE COURAGE AND FORESIGHT OF THESE MEN OPENED THE DOORS FOR POLITICAL AND RELIGIOUS FREEDOM ACROSS THE WORLD. THE REVOLUTION THAT THEY BEGAN CONTINUES TO THIS DAY. DO NOT TAKE IT FOR GRANTED AND BE THANKFUL THAT YOU WERE BORN OR CAME TO A NATION THAT ALLOWS FOR ALL OF THE POLITICAL AND SOCIAL ARGUING THAT WE SOMETIMES LOATHE, BUT IRONICALLY, SHOULD CELEBRATE. WE ARE A MELTING POT THAT CONTINUES TO STIR, BUT IN THE END, WE ARE AMERICANS WITHOUT HYPHENATION. CELEBRATE YOUR AMERICAN HERITAGE.

Unknown Speaker?

233 years ago, a group of 56 men faced the gallows for what they contemplated doing. Someone may have been the catalyst to their moving forward and signing a document that would change world history. No one knows who that someone was but, he gave a speech that roused the emotions of the delegates in Independence Hall in Philadelphia. Here is the text of what has become known as The Speech of the Unknown.

The delegates really voted in favor of the declaration on July 2, 1776. (see Second of July?) John Adams wrote to his wife that “The Second Day of July 1776 will be the most memorable Epocha, in the History of America. I am apt to believe that it will be celebrated, by succeeding Generations, as the great anniversary festival. It ought to be commemorated as the Day of Deliverance.” That letter wasn’t published until the 19th century and by that time the Fourth had become the traditional Independence Day. What happened on July 4 was an approval by the delegates of the final version of the document. The final version was not printed on parchment until July 19 and it wasn’t signed until August 2, 1776 by but 50 delegates. The other six got around to it later.

In 1817, John Trumbull painted the famous portrait of the signers of the Declaration. He hadn’t been there on July 4, 1776 but he did make sketches of many of the individuals and checked out the room so there is still some accuracy. One funny thing he did was to have John Adams stepping on Thomas Jefferson’s foot. Jefferson and Adams became fast friends but were political rivals. Both died on this date in 1826 exactly 50 years to the day of the official presentation of the Declaration of Independence. They were the only two signers of the declaration to become president. It is said that, on his deathbed, Adams said “Jefferson survives” or “Jefferson lives” not knowing that Tom had died a few hours earlier. I suppose it’s possible that Trumbull’s placement of Adams’ foot on the top of Jefferson’s was a statement of support for Adams who had been at odds over many issues with Jefferson. It just so happens that Trumbull had painted Adams’ portrait. However, I found one source that claims that the feet are merely close together and the claim of Adams stepping on his foot are unfounded. You decide for yourself on the photo on the left. Now, some sources say that Jefferson is standing on Adams’ foot.  The Wall Street Journal published this article in which none other than historian David McCullough says that its Jefferson’s foot on Adams, but says its really an illusion.   But the University of Maryland Baltmore has this on-line study regarding Adams on Jefferson’s foot. This source claims in engravings of the painting that followed, Adams’ foot was moved. So, the debate goes on. Above is a thumbnail of montage of all of the signers that you can click on. Trumbull for some reason left 14 of the signers out of the portrait but did manage to put 5 other men in the picture that were not signers. I have yet to find out why he did that…perhaps he was making another statement or he did not know what they looked like.

Clueless King was bored on July 4 1776

The writer of the declaration, Thomas Jefferson was a reluctant scribe. John Adams had to convince Jefferson that he was the most qualified to be the penman by giving him three reasons:

“You are a Virginian and a Virginian ought to appear at the head of business”

” I(Adams) am obnoxious, suspected and unpopular. You are very much otherwise.”

“You can write ten times better than I can.”

Jefferson responded, “if you are decided, then I will do as well as I can.”

And the rest they say, is history. King George though had no idea of what was happening. Back in England, he wrote in his diary on July 4, 1776 that not much happened. Oh…the folly of Kings.

Tornado probability

Weather Bottom Line: 

Morning clouds and cool conditions make me think that the risk for thunderstorms and the severe weather potential will be curtailed.  Nevertheless, the Storms Prediction Center has the slight risk of severe weather just to our west.   However, both the GFS and NAM feature a short wave or short wave moving through this afternoon or evening.  Like Forrest Gump, that’s all I’m gonna say about that.    I’ve got a  parade to go to but, if I see sunshine this afternoon in the wake of a shortwave that passed to our north this morning and brought the morning clouds, then I’ll be more on the lookout for t’storms this evening than I would otherwise.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0727 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2009
  
   VALID 041300Z – 051200Z

Severe Wind Probability

   
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LWR OH/MID MS VLY
   WWD INTO THE SRN PLNS…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH
   PLAINS…
  
   …MO/AR OZARKS EWD INTO THE LWR OH VALLEY…
   MDT WNWLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM UPPER RIDGE POSITION PAC NW TO ACROSS
   THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID ATLANTIC STATES AS TROUGH OVER
   NERN STATES MOVES OUT TO SEA.
   
  

Severe Hail Probability

 COMPOSITE FRONTAL/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY EXTENDING
   WSWWD ACROSS SRN MO INTO NRN OK/NERN NM.
  
   THE 40-50KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET SRN PLAINS TO LWR MO VALLEY HAS
   MAINTAINED THE MOIST WARM ADVECTION FOR THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF
   ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING ALONG AND N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SRN
   KS/NRN OK EWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.
  
   WHILE WEAKENING SOME THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS LOWER MO INTO LOWER OH/WRN TN VALLEYS WHICH COUPLED WITH THE
   50KT MID LEVEL FLOW PROVIDES ENVIRONMENT FOR A RENEWED THREAT OF
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE STRONG HEATING OF WARM SECTOR CAN WEAKEN
   CINH AND PROVIDE MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG OR GREATER STORMS SHOULD
   QUICKLY DEVELOP VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES
  
   THE PRIMARY STORM MODE ONCE INITIATION OF SURFACE CONVECTION OCCURS
   WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY INTO LINEAR GIVEN THE DOMINANT WESTERLY
   COMPONENT AT ALL LEVELS.  WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED
   STORMS…SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SHEAR AND AMOUNT OF
   INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE.  THUS EARLY IN THE SEVERE THREAT
   THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TORNADOS WITH ANY SUPERCELL.
   HOWEVER EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING UPSCALE WITH GENERATION
   OF COLD POOLS LEADING TO AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
   ACROSS MID MS VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE WIND PROBABILITIES
   WERE ACCORDINGLY RAISED THIS AREA FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
  
   …SRN PLAINS…
   STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED ALONG/S OF ADVANCING CDFNT AND OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES TODAY.  SFC DEW POINTS UPR 60S/LWR 70S COMBINED
   WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE MLCAPES 2000 J/KG FROM THE
   TX S PLNS EWD INTO OK.  SUSTAINED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
   BOUNDARIES WILL YIELD WDLY SCT ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT…INITIALLY
   ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN CNTRL/ERN OK…THEN ALONG THE CDFNT FROM
   WRN OK/TX S PLNS LATER.  THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
   COMPARATIVELY LESS ACROSS THE REGION THAN AT POINTS FARTHER
   E…INVERTED-V SUB-CLOUD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MID-LVL DRY AIR
   WILL AUGMENT DOWNDRAFTS RESULTING IN DMGG WIND GUSTS.  THE STRONGEST
   OF STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL…THOUGH TROPOSPHERIC
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM.  SVR THREATS WILL CONTINUE SWD
   INVOF BOUNDARIES DURING THE EVENING.
  
   …UPSLOPE AREAS OF CENTRAL AND NRN ROCKIES…
   WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER EASTERLYS/UPSLOPE WILL PREVAIL TO LEE OF ROCKIES
   AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THIS MAINTAINS LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR REPEAT OF
   DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  VEERING LOW LEVEL
   WIND PROFILES RESULT IN SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT ERN WY/ERN
   CO…MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS. PRIMARY THREAT
   WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL WET MICROBURSTS WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL
   ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
  
   STORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EWD AWAY FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AS AIR
   MASS EWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTAIN SOMEWHAT LESS INSTABILITY
   AND LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
  
   ..HALES/GARNER.. 07/04/2009

Jim Morrison Conspiracy Theories Rival Those of Michael Jackson; The Wall Street Witch; General Washington

 

Lizard King Still Walking the Earth With Elvis?

 Independence for the big Door:

Morrison Shrine/Grave

Jim Morrison died in a Paris bathtub on this date in 1971. He officially died of heart failure though a drug overdose was suspected. Just like with the conspiracy theories concerning the recent death of Michael Jackson, some of which suggest Jackson’s death was a fake,   almost immediately claims that Morrison really wasn’t dead hit the news.  Had there been a world wide web, I’m sure that the blogosphere would have been going wild.  Many conspiracy theorists floated the idea that Morrison was tired of his fame so he faked his own death.   That was the one that I always heard but there are a bunch of Jim Morrison conspiracy theories out there.  There was even a notion that the J. Edgar Hoover led FBI had him knocked off in an effort to stop the hippie movement.  I think his grave is some sort of haven or shrine for those who…well…I don’t know what they do or think. You can take the Jim Morrison Grave Tour on the web if you like.

On This Date In History:  Hetty Green died on this date in 1916. Who is Hetty Green? Why the Witch of Wall Street! Seems kinda sexist to call a rather ornery rich woman a “witch” when rich old coots might be called “tough” or “hard nosed.” Anyway, she is said to have learned to read the financial pages at age 6. She inherited a million dollars from her father at age 30. At that point, she became quite shrewd as she bought Civil War Bonds when others thought it was a bad investment. She made a mint. Basically, she took her million inheritance and increased it 100 fold. But, she was rather odd in that she lived like a pauper. Supposedly, Hetty married so that her heirs would be her children and not other relatives that she didn’t care for. She kept an office in a bank from which she negotiated a rent free lease. She moved from hotel to hotel to avoid paying property taxes. Hetty had a son and a daughter and when her boy hurt his leg in a sledding accident, she took him to a charity hospital. Well, hospital personnel recognized her and demand that she pay. She refused and decided to treat the child’s injured leg herself. He ended up losing the leg. She forced her children to eat as she did, which was ham sandwiches. Some call her thrifty, others a miser or the Witch of Wall Street. She is but one of a list of eccentric wealthy Americans.  Hetty died on this date in 1916 of a stroke suffered while arguing with a maid over the price of milk!! Can you imagine what she would be like with today’s rising prices?

Wonder if Hetty's Dog Was Toto?

Don’t worry, The Who may have been aware of the story because the Kids Are Alright. Hetty left each child $50 million. The more famous J.P. Morgan was worth a reported $70 million and her wealth equaled that of Henry Ford. In 2008 dollars, her fortune would have been near $2 Billion.

See what happens when you watch your pennies? She may have been a witch, but she was probably the wealthiest witch Wall Street had ever seen. Here’s a Forbes list of early wealthy Americans.

On This Date In 1775, Virginia planter and former British officer George Washington strode before the Continental Army, drew his sword and formerly took command as General of the Armies. While some opposed his appointment, he was chosen because of his leadership and because, as a Virginian, it was hoped he could bridge the differences between the southern colonies and those in New England. Washington had accepted the appointment two weeks prior under the stipulation that he not be paid except for reimbursement of expenses.

I Think The General Liked This Painting

While he is called the “father of the country” I think much is lost regarding Washington. He was quite remarkable and he really set the tone for the nation today. After he led the defeat of the most power nation on earth, Washington had all of the power. He had political power and the loyalty of the army. Other men in his position might have seized the reigns of power in the nation. There was some fear he may strike up a dictatorship. But he voluntarily gave up his sword and returned to Virginia. In 1787, the fledgling nation called again and he took the position of President of the Constitutional Convention. It is said his quiet resolve was inspiring to the delegates as they argued and compromised over a document that would last the ages. He was elected as the first President and won an overwhelming re-election. He could have served another term but instead, voluntarily gave up power for a second time.

FDR Broke Washington Tradition

Until Franklin Roosevelt, no one broke the two term tradition, though US Grant came reasonably close to gaining a third consecutive term. The two term tradition became a point of law following the passage of the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution which was ratified in 1951. If you think about it, that is the general tone of the nation. How many other nations in history have conquered as much territory and defeated so many nations in battle and then voluntarily given up the spoils? Again, I take you to his farewell address of 1796 in which you can see all of the wisdom poured forth for the nation he helped to build. Washington died in 1799 from what most think was a cold or the flu….though there is speculation that he would have lived except for the practice of bleeding a patient. Washington himself may have been the cause of his own demise as he supposedly urged the doctor to let him bleed after the doctor was going to close the wounds. Speculation is that Washington bled to death. Here is the text of George Washington’s  farewell address, that is often quoted and paraphrased, in case you missed it before. Look for all of the items that would apply today and also look for his interesting take on religion in society.

Weather Bottom Line:  Really not much change in the story line for the Fourth of July weekend.  Today will be great with tons of sun and a high in the mid 80’s.  A low will be ejecting out of the southwest and get up to say, Memphis on Saturday.  That should be sufficient to throw over some moisture and create some isolated t’storms in the afternoon.  The short makes its closest approach on Saturday evening and that is when t’storm activity will have its greatest risk.  I intimdated that the SPC might widen its slight risk area and they have done so such that Louisville is barely in the risk region.  As I said previously, not a slam dunk for strong storms but not totally out of the question.   There will be clouds sticking around on Sunday with the risk for rain probably being greatest in the first half of the day.   As the long wave pattern continues to slowly shift, we should be out of the influence of the Great Lakes trof that brought us such cool weather the past few days and a slight ridge will start building in.  There’s a chance for a shortwave to come through the flow on Monday perhaps bringing a t’storm chance then, but otherwise, the signature of next week will be our afternoon temperatures moving back into the upper 80’s.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2009
  
   VALID 041200Z – 051200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO
   THE SRN PLAINS…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PARTS OF WY AND CO…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
   PERSIST INTO SATURDAY…WITH AMPLITUDE OF THE ERN US LONG WAVE
   DIMINISHING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN BROAD WNWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE US FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE ATLANTIC
   COAST…DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST. 
  
   AT THE SURFACE…A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE MID MS
   VALLEY TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD…WITH A
   TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE LOW. 
  
   …MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY…
   AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER
   PARTS OF NRN MO…ERN IA AND NRN/CENTRAL IL.  THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   WILL BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT…MAINTAINED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   AND WARM ADVECTION LIFT NEAR THE NOSE OF A 50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET.
   GIVEN THE BACKGROUND 35-45 KT MID LEVEL WINDS AND RESULTANT STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR…THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR
   IN THE SRN PART OF THE MCS DURING THE MORNING…ALTHOUGH WEAK
   INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.  STORMS MAY
   INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING
   OCCURS ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD OVER PARTS
   OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER OH VALLEY.  CONTINUED FAVORABLE
   LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND
   INTENSITY…AND MAY COMPENSATE FOR WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS
   THE AREA.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   STRONGER STORMS…WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 03Z.
  
   …SRN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS…
   AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF
   THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT…AND WHEN COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
   IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S…WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
   STRONG HEATING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP DURING THE
   AFTERNOON…AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
   WINDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODEST AT BEST…LARGE
   TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP
   MIXED LAYER…AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   LARGE DCAPE VALUES INDICATIVE OF ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT INTENSITY AND
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR
   LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS.  SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
   SWD ALONG THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE
   EVENING HOURS.
  
   …ERN PARTS OF WY AND CO…
   WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN
   SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO
   PARTS OF SD AND NEB.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
   LOW 50S…AND CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT WITH
   MLCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD/ESEWD INTO
   THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A BAND OF 25-35 KT MID LEVEL FLOW.  DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS TO
   DEVELOP…INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
   AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
  
   ..WEISS.. 07/03/2009

 

7/3 SPC convective outlook for 7/4/09

Stay Away from This Lincoln, Independence Day is Fraudulent and Amelia is Missing

JFK was riding in this Lincoln in Dallas

Jim never caught his train

On This Date in History: President James A. Garfield was shot in a train station by Charles Guiteau on this date in 1881. Guiteau had wanted a political appointment and didn’t get what he wanted so he shot the President. I did a report on Garfield in 5th grade so I know a little about this. One story claims that the bullet nicked an artery and that eventually killed him 11 weeks later. The bullet was lodged in his body and another story says that if they had left it alone, he would have lived. Both stories allude to the doctors ignoring the research of Louie Pasteur who had brought to light the idea of bacteria. Garfield’s doctors were skeptical and so they didn’t bother washing their hands nor the instruments. They poked dirty fingers into the hole in his body looking for the bullet. Alexander Graham Bell was summoned to try to locate the bullet with some gizmo. But, all of that poking and prodding with unsterile hands and instruments probably brought about the President’s demise, just 6 months into his term. Or…

Bad Luck For Presidents Bob

It could have been the presence of one man who brought the doom. Robert Todd Lincoln was Abraham Lincoln’s oldest son. While he was not present in Ford’s Theatre when John Wilkes Booth fired the fateful bullet, he was at the 16th President’s bedside when he died. In the train station with Garfield was Robert Todd Lincoln. Twenty years later, President McKinley was at the Pan-American Exposition in Buffalo, New York on September 6, 1901. Presidential invitation in hand, Robert Todd Lincoln entered the exposition hall only to hear two shots ring out. The President had been assassinated. Robert Todd Lincoln became a recluse for the remainder of his life lamenting that “there is a certain fatality about presidential functions when I am present.” Well…that followed him even in death. Robert Lincoln’s grave can be found in Arlington National Cemetery…just a few yards from that of John Fitzgerald Kennedy…who was killed when riding in a Lincoln!

Signatures Came on July 2, 1776

The Fourth os July is a Fraud!  Independence Day is not really the day that we declared independence. Nope. It was really This date in 1776. Richard Henry Lee had proposed a resolution for Independence in June but it was apparent there were not sufficient votes to pass it. So, they held off until July 2, 1776 when almost everyone voted in favor of independence. The delegation from New York abstained. They claimed that they were not sure what their constituents wanted them to do so they did nothing. I wonder though if this is not a case of fence sitting. They had to have known there were the votes for passage so, by abstaining, if the revolution failed, then they could always tell the crown that they never voted for it and maybe save their skins. It’s called covering your backside, among other things. But, Congress didn’t allow the New Yorkers off that easy as they very shrewdly appointed Robert Livingston, a delegate from New York, along with John Adams, Ben Franklin, Thomas Jefferson and Roger Sherman of Connecticut to draft a formal declaration. That formal declaration was completed and adopted on July 4, 1776. Its rather interesting that we celebrate the fourth and not the second given that John Adams wrote that the second of July would be the most celebrated day in all of American history. On the one hand I’m glad Adams was wrong because “The Fourth of July” has a better ring than “The Second of July”. On the other hand, perhaps if it had been celebrated on the day of the actual vote instead of when they got the paperwork done and when it was formally adopted,  then people would remember it more commonly as “Independence Day”.

 

Others Gaining Independence on this Date:

 

Freedom for Amelia?

Amelia Earhardt gained independence from the rest of the world when her plane disappeared on this date in 1937.

 

President James Garfield began his trek for independence from this earth when he was felled from an assassins bullet on this date in 1881. He was shot while standing in a train station, but he didn’t gain full independence for another 6 months.

 

In 1809, Shawnee Chief Tecumseh began his quest for the Indian nations to re-establish their independence from the white settlers. Tecumseh observed how much the native culture had changed and become dependent on the white economy and trade. So, he encouraged going back to the old ways and resistance to European influence. Of course he failed and his fears came true. He gained ultimate independence in 1813 fighting for the British in the War of 1812 when he was killed, but not before he put his curse on the white man. That curse, it is said, caused the death of every president elected to office in a year ending in zero with the first being the man who led the troops against Tecumseh in his final battle, William Henry Harrison. The curse held true until Ronald Reagan overcame the curse of Tecumseh.

Fatal Attraction

Don’t Get Too Independent

A few years ago, a couple in South Carolina made international headlines in June when they took their freedom to new heights. Be careful that you don’t get too  free.

8 AM Sat through 8AM Sunday

Weather Bottom Line:  We will remain in the clouds and cool conditions for today as the big trof over the Great Lakes holds tough.  The long wave pattern will shift sufficiently on Friday to welcome in more sunshine and take us back to more seasonal conditions i n the mid to upper 80’s.  We have a system coming through the flow from the west.  Some disagreement on the model front as some want to increase the rain/t’storm chances for early Saturday afternoon with others making it Saturday evening.  Either way, the revision here is that instead of greatest rain chances Saturday night into Sunday, it looks now as if the Fourth of July may have some bugaboos.  The SPC puts the best risk for severe weather from the southern parts of the viewing area and points to the west but that doesn’t mean that there won’t be any t’storms rumbling about. 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2009
  
   VALID 041200Z – 051200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND
   SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
  
   WNWLY QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY OVER THE NRN
   TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND
   SWRN STATES. SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS PROGRESSIVE
   FLOW REGIME. CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
   AN IMPACT ON HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT PROGRESSES DURING THE DAY WHICH
   REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
   RUNS…FRONT WILL PROBABLY ADVANCE INTO SE CO…SRN KS/MO AND NRN
   OK/AR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
  
   …CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS…
  
   PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HAVE ADVECTED OVER THE
   CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO A PORTION OF THE MID/LOWER MS IN VICINITY
   OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE PROBABLE AS
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON…ESPECIALLY JUST
   NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE. STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS FARTHER
   WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
   MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL REMAIN ON SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW
   ALOFT WITH BULK SHEAR MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. THE
   PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS
   STORMS DEVELOP SWD INTO MORE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS.
  
  
   FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE TN VALLEY…MCS THAT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
   PROGRESS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE SEWD
   TOWARD THE TN VALLEY REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEWD ADVANCING
   IMPULSE AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET. RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD
   OCCUR ALONG SWRN FLANKS OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACCOMPANYING THIS
   ACTIVITY WHERE LIFT COULD BE POTENTIALLY AUGMENTED WSWLY LOW LEVEL.
   STRONGER BULK SHEAR ATTENDING THE MCV/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL POSE A
   CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES IF STORMS CAN
   BECOME SURFACE BASED. OTHERWISE…STORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ALONG
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD MOVE INTO THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
  
   ..DIAL.. 07/02/2009

1st Bikini was HOT by today’s standards; A Presidential Cover-Up; Winter-Like Weather Pattern

1st Bikini Would Turn Heads Even Today

Bikini Blast July 1, 1946

On this date in history: The US completed its first atomic blast on the Bikini Atoll islands in the Pacific on this date in 1946.   There were doomsday predictions concerning what to that time was one of the largest nuclear devices ever exploded.  The fear was that the atmosphere might catch on fire and the earth would be incinerated.  Around that time, French couturier Jacques Heim had brought the what was dubbed as the world’s smallest swimsuit to the masses. In France, amid rumors that the superbomb would bring the end of time, hostesses began throwing “Bikini Parties” and the two piece suit got its name. The bikini became popular in Europe but was frowned on in the US where no suits were manufactured until 1959.

Not What Heim Had in Mind

At one time, Webster’s Third New International Dictionary derived the name of the suit “from the comparison of the effects wrought by a scantily clad woman to the effects of an atomic bomb.”   Yes indeed the effects of the bikini are known to create quite a lot of heat in some circles. We won’t go into the derivation of the term “bikini whale” made popular by the B-52s…I’ll leave that to your imagination in the privacy of your own home.

The photo accompanying this story of  Micheline Bernardini modeling the first bikini in 1946. This story claims the designer was Louis Reard, but is consistent with the contention that Bernardini was a stripper.  I guess she was the only one who didn’t mind being the first to model the new suit.  But anyway, WOW…that certainly must have caused a stir in many a household in the good old USA. Even by today’s standards, what standards are left, that would turn a few heads.

Grover Cleveland Returns! On This date in 1893, President Grover Cleveland pulled off one of the biggest cover-ups in Presidential History. The cigar chomping President was found to have cancer of the jaw. He created a cover story that he was going on a summer vacation at his summer home. But really, he was on board his friends yacht, the Oneida, anchored in the East River in New York having part of his jaw removed. So secret was the surgery, not even his pregnant wife was told…you remember…the wife we spoke of in another post(see June 2 “Big Daddy Grover”) that I surmised called him Uncle Grover? Anyway, members of the cabinet and even the Vice-President was not told of the risky surgery. The public did not know that their President had been treated for cancer until 1917…Nine years following his death. Not only could Grover woo the little girl whom he was charged with caring for by his dead friend, he also knew how to keep a secret. Grover Cleveland stories just never stop(See June 8). Here is a link to a list of his maladies…one of which was drinking beer…that entry is pretty funny. Apparently, when he ran for district attorney in Erie County, NY he pounded beers every night with his opponent. I’m tellin’ ya…this guy makes President Clinton’s foibles look tame in comparison.

Grover Cleveland Maladies

NAM 300 mb Wed 8 AM-Note the big trof over the Great Lakes

NAM 300 mb Sat 8 AM-slight trof west coast, bigger trof east coast, slight ridging in between

Weather Bottom Line:

We’ve got a kinda interesting pattern.  It’s not something one typically sees in the summer but more often in the winter.  That is with the polar jet stream dipping way down into the lower 48 with a big long wave trof over the Great Lakes.  This type of amplification is unusual because typically the polar jet has gone north for the summer by now.  As it is, the pattern will be a little slow to move and so we will continue to have the big low over the Great Lakes rotate around with little vort maxes spinning around.   In the winter, this would produce cloudy skies and snow flurries from time to time.  It’s a fairly dry pattern but the colder air tends to squeeze out what moisture it can.  In our case, the shortwaves rolling through will bring clouds and maybe a sprinkle or two and thats about it.  The clouds will hold the temperatures in the mid 70’s at best.  Once a wave moves through, then we get sinking air in its wake and the skies will clear.  So, for the next day or so, expect much cooler than average temperatures with periods of cloud cover.

Now, by Friday,  the long wave pattern shifts with the trof moving to the east coast and another trof on the west coast with an amplified ridge in between.  By early next week, it almost looks like an omega block is forming, which means that the pattern will probably stay put for a while.  Guess here is that we will see very warm conditions in the middle of the nation all the way to the northern plains and both the northeast and northwest in a cool and damp condition.  The Ohio Valley will be in between.  So, we will warm up, but not too terribly hot.  We will probably be in the general storm track as well with disturbances moving up and over the ridge then down to the southeast through the region.  One such event should happen late Saturday or early Sunday.  July 4th should be warm and partly cloudy with rain/t’storm chances inreasing through the overnight.

Yao Ming Career in Jeopardy; Tightrope Across Niagara and Articles of War

Look at this guy tightrope across Niagara Falls.

Yao's towering career in Jeopardy?

Yao Ming is perhaps the NBA’s greatest marketing tool in the world.  Every time he plays, hundreds of millions of Chinese tune in to watch the Houston Rockets.  The Rockets figured out that marketing power initially when, after dawning a new logo and uniform just a few years prior to his addition to the franchise, they quickly revamped their look again by enhancing their uniform to feature prominently the color red that is close to that used in the Chinese flag.  The lettering also took on a look similar to what one might find at the Asian section of an amusement park.   Yao has done pretty well in the NBA but has had troubles with injuries.  In the second round of the playoffs, he reinjured a foot that had been surgically repaird for fractures.  Now it seems that the foot is not healing and, like Bill Walton, Yao’s  foot problems may limit the remainder of his career.  Houston has a problem.

 

The year was 1859 and, on this date in history, Emile Blondin took to the rope up to 270 feet above Niagara and for 1100 feet walked across from one side to the other. His real name was Jean-Francois Gravelet and he was born in France. He saw his first tightrope act in France at the age of 5. He supposedly came right home and set up a rope with some chairs and began practicing. His father was a gymnast and helped him. After just 6 months, he was performing. Somehow he became an orphan and so he ran and joined the circus at age 9. One source I have found says that 5,000 people watched him do this first stunt on a two inch wide rope and another claims 100,000 on a 3 inch rope. So, who knows? A lot of locals didn’t want him to do the stunt because they thought it would turn the lovely falls into the backdrop for a circus type atmosphere. Much to their chagrin, the first walk was to successful, Blondin did it many more times with variations.

Blondin's Fame was Enough for its use in parody of James Buchanan's failed efforts prior to the Civl War

He did it blindfolded, with a man on his back, in a gorilla suit while pushing a wheelbarrow and he even wowed the crowds by taking photos of them while on the rope, which I am trying to fathom giving the size of photographic equipment in the 19th century…I’m not sure if I’m buyin’ that. It is also said that he cooked an omelet over the falls. Other sources confirm this and one even says that he crossed Niagara on stilts! I’m tryin to figure those two out too. In all, he crossed Niagara 16 times and performed other walks all around the world. His final performance was at age 68. He died at 73 a very wealthy man. Source suggest that he made $500 a performance but he had to have made more than that at the end of his career as his earnings for his final two years was about $400,000. In 2007, dollars, that would be $9.12 million.

So, why in the world would anyone want to do such a silly thing? I mean…what does it prove? What does it say about you? Well, apparently someone thought it was worth while because the practice goes all the way back to the ancient Greeks. If you have some time, check out this website…The Blondin Memorial Trust.

Blondin Memorial Trust History of Tightrope

 

Brits communicated with America through papers such as PA Evening Post on May 13, 1775

Beginnings of Independence:

We celebrate the signing of the Declaration of Independence on July 4. Everyone knows it was in 1776. But, on this date in 1775 the seeds for separation were sown when the Continental Congress adopted the Articles of War. Its rather interesting because the Congress directed Thomas Jefferson to omit any criticism of King George. Instead, Jefferson referred to the colonists as “his Majesty’s most faithful subjects in these Colonies” and laid blame for their actions at the feet of parliament. My guess is that this goes back to the tradition of protest.

See, for centuries, the peasants in Europe were not able to communicate directly with the King. The King’s men did his bidding and often did things that upset the citizenry. So, they would protest with the idea that “if only the king knew…he’d stop this!” so they protested in an effort to gain the King’s attention to their plight expecting that the King would deal with the evil doers and right the wrongs. So, I suspect this was Congress putting the King on notice that their grievances were not against him directly, hoping that by declaring they had not personal beef with him, that the King would address their grievances and all would be well in Colonial America.

But, alas, that did no good because as was often the case, the King’s men were doing exactly what the King wanted. It was never very likely that the King’s men or the Parliament would do any free-lancing and act beyond the King’s wishes. After a year, that became apparent to the colonists and a year later, Jefferson penned the Declaration of Independence and laid the blame squarely at the King’s feet. From that point forth, there was no turning back and for the leaders of the Revolution, mainly the colonies’ elites, literally were living the motto “give me liberty or give me death” as the signers of the Declaration had signed their own death warrants had the efforts failed. After all, it’s one thing to dog Parliament….it’s quite another to trash the King.

Weather Bottom Line:  This is how averages comes about.  Last week, we had highs in the 90’s.  We started the week with a high in the mid to upper 80’s on Monday but it was relatively dry.  A second push of drier air came through late Monday, as expected, and now some folks may struggle to the 80’s today.  We move back to the upper 80’s toward the end of the week but until then we’ll have cool nights as humidity levels remain in check.  We may start to see a few pop up afternoon storms by late in the week.  A front will probably hold off though until after the Fourth of July.