Falkland Islands: Nothing More Than a Symbol of Pride
January 22, 2011

May 14 1979 Time Magazine Proved To Be a Prophecy...but for what?

On This Date in History:  In the early 1980’s, there was a much publicized war between Argentina and Great Britain over a tiny group of islands off the southern tip of Argentina.  It became known as the Falkland Islands War.  Britain had long maintained sovereignty over the islands and Argentina suddenly had laid claim to them.  Very few people had heard of the islands before and most in Great Britain probably had no idea that it was British property.  The islands really had little value but the honor of Britain was at stake.  As it turns out, it was really a repeat of history. 

Sir Thomas Cavendish

The Spanish had been the lords of the sea for much of the 18th century and therefore had been able to do the most exploring and exploitation of the new world.   When the Spanish Armada was routed by the British in 1588, that opened up the New World to other European nations.  Now, Sir Thomas Cavendish was an English explorer and sailor known as the “navigator” for his sailing skills.  While Magellan, Loaisa, Drake and Loyola all had circumnavigated the globe, apparently none of them set sail with that intention.  Cavendish is credited with being the first to make such a voyage as his primary, intended quest.  He achieved this at age 28 after a two-year journey in 1588.  For some reason, that was not enough because he tried it again in 1591.  By 1592, Cavendish was dead of unknown causes and the attempt has been labeled a disaster.   However, it is thought that, on this voyage, one of Cavendish’s ships was captained by a man named Davis who, either by design or bad weather, got separated from Cavendish near the Straits of Magellan and is thought to be the first to have seen the islands.  However, he did not explore then or otherwise make any observations.  While that seems nebulous on the surface, it would prove to be important for centuries. 

Over 200 years later, Falklands still good for sheep

In 1771, a man named Samuel Johnson wrote a detailed history of the Falkland Islands up to that point.  Johnson seems to be opining of the uselessness of the islands.  After Captain Davis, several other people saw the islands but never bothered to stop.  When they were mapped, it was found that the islands had lots of water but no wood.  It had a good harbor and only had a benefit perhaps as a military outpost to support colonial operations.  But, even that was a dubious distinction because there was no way that the islands could ever be self-sufficient.  Spain had nominally laid claim to the islands as part of its Argentina colonization but the Spanish never did much with it.  The British did set up an outpost and provisioned it regularly and also found that sheep and cattle seemed to be more suitable for that environment than agriculture.  Around 1870, the Spanish showed up and asked the British to leave.  Mainly out of pride, the British refused.  The exchanges between the commander of the British garrison and the Spanish frigate captain is remarkable in that it is civil.  It’s as if both of them were doing their duty but really didn’t want to spill blood over something of such little value.  The Spanish eventually landed with a far superior force and the British left.  But, that wasn’t the end of it. Again, pride shows up and the crown just  couldn’t allow their claims to be challenged.  Their claim of possession was  basically that they had found it first.  The courts of Spain and England negotiated and discussed and, in the end, the King of Spain disavowed any knowledge of the actions of the governor of Buenos Aires, who apparently had directed his naval forces to take the island without orders  or permission from the King.  So, on this date in 1771, Spain ceded what was known as the Falkland Islands to the English, to the British Crown. 

Falklands More Suitable To Penguins Than People

Johnson opined on what all of this got the crown:  “… a restitution of our settlement, maintained the honour of the crown, and the superiority of our influence. Beyond this what have we acquired? What, but a bleak and gloomy solitude, an island, thrown aside from human use, stormy in winter, and barren in summer; an island, which not the southern savages have dignified with habitation; where a garrison must be kept in a state that contemplates with envy the exiles of Siberia; of which the expense will be perpetual, and the use only occasional; and which, if fortune smile upon our labours, may become a nest of smugglers in peace, and in war the refuge of future bucaniers.”  Johnson hammered the point of the lack of utility of the island when he points out that, after the Brits gained the concession, they abandoned the island.  He does note, however, that “the Spaniards have stipulated, that the grant of possession shall not preclude the question of prior right, a question which we shall probably make no haste to discuss, and a right, of which no formal resignation was ever required.”  This perhaps was the underlying excuse for hostility by the Argentinians 200 years later.

Falkland Islands Map

Falkland Islands Map

On the other hand,  it is not unusual for a government in turmoil with a risk of collapse from within to create an international incident in order to unify the country against a common foe besides the government. In the late 1970’s and early 1980’s, Argentina had been ruled by a military dictatorship that had once been popular but was rapidly losing support from the people as they grew weary of the number of political prisoners that had been taken as well as people who had simply disappeared. The economy was shrinking at 6% per year and inflation was running at 160%. The unions began to join forces with political opposition groups and the military Junta knew it was in trouble. Then, they thought a gift had been delivered to them.

The Harrier Proved Its Meddle in the Falklands

The Harrier Proved Its Meddle in the Falklands

While the Falkland and the South Georgia Islands had long been part of the British empire, the general global feeling of the 20th century was that empires needed to come to an end. However, perhaps due to the same pride that caused the British to want to keep the islands in the 18th century,  numerous attempts through the United Nations by Argentina to get Britain to cede the islands to Argentina failed. In 1979, an Argentinian businessman (Constantino Davidoff) purchased a former whale slaughterhouse on the South Georgia Islands from an Englishman(Christian Salvensen). The new owner wanted to dismantle the plant and sell the metal for scrap. The HMS Endurance was in the vicinity and the Argentine owner asked the Brits to loan him the use of their naval vessel to help him haul off the scrap. The crown denied his request. So, he went to his own Navy which obliged. This was the perfect set up for the Junta. It knew that the people of Argentina supported the idea of the nation gaining sovereignty over the islands off its coast and, if the Junta could use the situation properly, it could perhaps regain public support.  Besides, the Spanish never did acknowledge that the British had rightful claim when it ceded control in 1771.

Aluminum Ships Like Destroyer HMS Sheffield Proved Vulnerable To Missiles

Aluminum Ships Like Destroyer HMS Sheffield Proved Vulnerable To Missiles

So, in March 1982 when the Argentine Navy ship showed up at the South Georgia Islands, residents there complained to London that there was a warship with the Argentine flag floating in their waters. So, the British sent the HMS Endurance to the scene to prevent any landing by any Argentinians. Argentina responded by sending the military transport Bahia Parasio to the islands with the hope of occupying the islands peacefully. Now, the Junta had a plan for invading the Falkland and South Georgia Islands on the shelf for a couple of years. The nation had a pretty decent military and the battlefield would be 7500 miles from England. Also, they figured that they could use the weather as an ally by staging their invasion between June and October, which is the winter time in the Southern Hemisphere which would make things more difficult for England. The advantage really was with Argentina.

War Was The Big Headline in London

War Was The Big Headline in London

But…the people at home were getting restless and protests were growing quickly against the military leaders. So, they made the mistake of moving up their time-table. On April 2, 1982 Argentine ground forces of landed on the South Georgia Islands. The Falkland Islands War was on and the Argentine government appealed to President Reagan for support. The Rio Treaty of 1947 called on all nations of the Americas to come to the aid of any nation that was invaded by foreign forces. The Junta told Reagan that they were enforcing the rights of Argentine workers to legally do the job of removing the whaling slaughterhouse. I guess Ron didn’t agree because he didn’t lift a finger. After all, England was not your ordinary foreign invader. It had been our pal throughout the 20th Century and Reagan had established a strong bond with Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who earned her reputation as the “Iron Lady” by calling the Argentine bluff.

Sinking HMS Conventry and other ships highlighted limitations and vulnerability of naval assets

Instead of quietly negotiating away the islands, she sent a task force of ships, submarines, sailors and over 10,000 troops all the way from England. The task force left on April 5, 1982…just 3 days after the Argentine invasion. The first encounter of the Brits and Argentines happened on April 25 and by the middle of June, the war was over with an Argentinian surrender…just before the winter got going. Many historians agree, the biggest mistake of the Argentine Junta was to attack in the fall instead of sticking to their plan of a winter assault. In the eyes of many, the Argentinians had a good case for obtaining the islands but, the military might and determination of Margaret Thatcher rendered any legitimate points moot. A little more than a year later, the Argentinian Junta was out of office and any hope of ever getting to the negotiating table with Britain over ceding the islands was doomed. They never should have neglected the weather forecast.  Or maybe they should have just agreed that the islands were of no value.  As it stands, many people died and treasure spent on a bunch of islands that no one really found  much use for except express misappropriated pride…but at last, that pride is redeemed…you see, oil was discovered a few years ago near the Falkland Islands and, once again, Argentina is claiming and Britain ain’t listening. 

Weather Bottom Line:  Yes, it’s cold.  Is your street clear of snow?  I think the Mayor is in Washington DC so maybe he’s not aware of the snow on the streets in your neighborhood.  Then again, perhaps the delay is just a money-saving tactic since it’s the weekend and they’ll just clear everyone’s road by Sunday night for the Monday start to the work week.  See, there is a model out there that just keeps throwing snow over the area for many days.  That would be the GFS.   Its been consistent in that assertion from last Thursday through early Saturday morning. I suspect that it will change its mind because it’s the outlier as most models do not have a low traversing the Ohio Valley and conspiring with one to the South to bring lots of snow, or at least several days of light snow.  Instead, most damp out the midwest low and make the southern low the dominant feature and routes it through Dixie and up the east coast.  The weather service still has a chance of snow in the forecast from Sunday night through Wednesday, but we’ll have to wait and see.  Either way, while it will remain cold for the forseeable future, we will come out of the ice bucket after the weekend.

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Margaret Thatcher Shows Her Mettle
April 2, 2010

May 14 1979 Time Magazine Proved To Be a Prophecy

May 14 1979 Time Magazine Proved To Be a Prophecy

Falkland Islands Map

Falkland Islands Map

On This Date in History: It is not unusual for a government in turmoil with a risk of collapse from within to create an international incident in order to unify the country against a common foe besides the government. In the late 1970’s and early 1980’s, Argentina had been ruled by a military dictarship that had once been popular but was rapidly losing support from the people as they grew weary of the number of political prisoners that had been taken as well as people who had simply disappeared. The economy was shrinking at 6% per year and inflation was running at 160%. The unions began to join forces with political opposition groups and the military Junta knew it was in trouble. Then, the thought a gift had been delivered to them.

The Harrier Proved Its Meddle in the Falklands

The Harrier Proved Its Meddle in the Falklands

Off of Argentina lay the Falkland and the South Georgia Islands. These islands had long been part of the British empire. Throughout the 20th century, the general global feeling was that empires needed to come to an end but, inspite of numerous attempts through the United Nations, Argentina was unable to get Britain to cede the islands that resided so far away from England. In 1979, an Argentian buisinessman (Constantino Davidoff) purchased a former whale slaughterhouse on the South Georgia Islands from an Englishman(Christian Salvensen). The new owner wanted to dismantle the plant and sell the mettle for scrap. The HMS Endurance was in the vicinity and the Argentine owner asked the Brits to loan him the use of their naval vessel to help him haul off the scrap. The crown denied his request. So, he went to his own Navy which obliged. This was the perfect set up for the Junta. It knew that the people of Argentina supported the idea of the nation gaining sovereignty over the islands off its coast and, if the Junta could use the situtation properly, it could perhaps regain public support.

Aluminum Ships Like Destroyer HMS Sheffield Proved Vulnerable To Missles

Aluminum Ships Like Destroyer HMS Sheffield Proved Vulnerable To Missles

So, in March 1982 when the Argentine Navy ship showed up at the South Georgia Islands, residents there complained to London that there was a warship with the Argentine flag floating in their waters. So, the British sent the HMS Endurance to the scene to prevent any landing by any Argentinians. Argentina responded by sending the military transport Bahia Parasio to the islands with the hope of occupying the islands peacefully. Now, the Junta had a plan for invading the Falkland and South Georgia Islands on the shelf for a couple of years. The nation had a pretty decent military and the battlefield would be 7500 miles from England. Also, they figured that they could use the weather as an ally by staging their invasion between June and October, which is the winter time in the Southern Hemisphere which would make things more difficult for England. The advantage really was with Argentina.

War Was The Big Headline in London

War Was The Big Headline in London

But…the people at home were getting restless and protests were growing quickly against the military leaders. So, they made the mistake of moving up their time table. On this date in 1982, Argentine ground forces of landed on the South Georgia Islands. The Falkland Islands War was on and the Argentine government appealed to President Reagan for support. The Rio Treaty of 1947 called on all nations of the Americas to come to the aid of any nation that was invaded by foreign forces. The Junta told Reagan that they were enforcing the rights of Argentine workers to legally do the job of removing the whaling slaughterhouse. I guess Ron didn’t agree because he didn’t lift a finger. After all, England was not your ordinary foreign invader. It had been our pal throughout the 20th Century and Reagan had established a strong bond with Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who earned her reputation as the “Iron Lady” by calling the Argentine bluff.

Sinking HMS Conventry and other ships highlighted limitations and vulnerability of naval assets

Instead of quietly negotiating away the islands, she sent a task force of ships, submarines, sailors and over 10,000 troops all the way from England. The task force left on Aprl 5, 1982…just 3 days after the Argentine invasion. The first encounter of the Brits and Argentines happened on April 25 and by the middle of June, the war was over with an Argentinian surrender…just before the winter got going. Many historians agree, the biggest mistake of the Argentine Junta was to attack in the fall instead of sticking to their plan of a winter assault. In the eyes of many, the Argentinians had a good case for obtaining the islands but, the military might and determination of Margaret Thatcher rendered any legitimate points moot. A little more than a year later, the Argentinian Junta was out of office and any hope of ever getting to the negotiating table with Britain over ceding the islands was doomed. They never should have neglected the weather forecast.

SPC mentions T'Storm Potential Saturday

SPC Very small probability of strong storms Saturday

Weather Bottom Line:  In the short term, it’s pretty clear cut with a very nice Good Friday with a high pushing toward the mid 80’s.  I told you  a  few days ago that there would be some potential activity in the midwest and the target area today stretches from north Texas to the central plains.  I think Saturday will be good for most of the time but rain chances will increase as the afternoon goes on.  By late afternoon into the evening, a front comes down but the main storm center will be well to our North.   The storms moving in from out west should be fading when they get here but, I would have an eyebrow raised if some wander in here in the late day, before the sun goes down.  The most interesting aspect of this is the steep lapse rates.  Some of these storms may be elevated and if the lapse rates shake out as suggested,then we could have some hail or gusty winds.  The SPC puts a 5% chance for severe weather just to our west and northwest which would indicate the probable area of storms by late afternoon.   Not a big deal, but its something.  Then the front clears things out for Easter Sunday and we knock about 10-15 degrees off the afternoon highs.  Monday, the front comes back as a warm front another front approaches. Rain chances will probably elevate.  After that, it seems to me that we get pretty warm on Tuesday before another front comes in and causes some issues on Wednesday.

Iron Lady Had Iron Pants; Storms Thursday
April 2, 2009

May 14 1979 Time Magazine Proved To Be a Prophecy

May 14 1979 Time Magazine Proved To Be a Prophecy

Falkland Islands Map

Falkland Islands Map

On This Date in History:  It is not unusual for a government in turmoil with a risk of collapse from within to create an international incident in order to unify the country against a common foe besides the government.  In the late 1970’s and early 1980’s, Argentina had been ruled by a military dictarship that had once been popular but was rapidly losing support from the people as they grew weary of the number of political prisoners that had been taken as well as people who had simply disappeared.  The economy was shrinking at 6% per year and inflation was running at 160%.   The unions began to join forces with political opposition groups and the military Junta knew it was in trouble.  Then, the thought a gift had been delivered to them.

The Harrier Proved Its Meddle in the Falklands

The Harrier Proved Its Meddle in the Falklands

Off of Argentina lay the Falkland and the South Georgia Islands.  These islands had long been part of the British empire.  Throughout the 20th century, the general global feeling was that empires needed to come to an end but, inspite of numerous attempts through the United Nations, Argentina was unable to get Britain to cede the islands that resided so far away from England.  In 1979, an Argentian buisinessman (Constantino Davidoff) purchased a former whale slaughterhouse on the South Georgia Islands from an Englishman(Christian Salvensen).  The new owner wanted to dismantle the plant and sell the mettle for scrap.  The HMS Endurance was in the vicinity and the Argentine owner asked the Brits to loan him the use of their naval vessel to help him haul off the scrap.  The crown denied his request.  So, he went to his own Navy which obliged.  This was the perfect set up for the Junta.  It knew that the people of Argentina supported the idea of the nation gaining sovereignty over the islands off its coast and, if the Junta could use the situtation properly, it could perhaps regain public support.

Aluminum Ships Like Destroyer HMS Sheffield Proved Vulnerable To Missles

Aluminum Ships Like Destroyer HMS Sheffield Proved Vulnerable To Missles

So, in March 1982 when the Argentine Navy ship showed up at the South Georgia Islands, residents there complained to London that there was a warship with the Argentine flag floating in their waters.  So, the British sent the HMS Endurance to the scene to prevent any landing by any Argentinians.  Argentina responded by sending the military transport Bahia Parasio to the islands with the hope of occupying the islands peacefully.  Now, the Junta had a plan for invading the Falkland and South Georgia Islands on the shelf for a couple of years.  The nation had a pretty decent military and the battlefield would be 7500 miles from England.  Also, they figured that they could use the weather as an ally by staging their invasion between June and October, which is the winter time in the Southern Hemisphere which would make things more difficult for England.  The advantage really was with Argentina.

War Was The Big Headline in London

War Was The Big Headline in London

But…the people at home were getting restless and protests were growing quickly against the military leaders.  So, they made the mistake of moving up their time table.  On this date in 1982, Argentine ground forces of landed on the South Georgia Islands.  The Falkland Islands War was on and the Argentine government appealed to President Reagan for support.  The Rio Treaty of 1947 called on all nations of the Americas to come to the aid of any nation that was invaded by foreign forces.  The Junta told Reagan that they were enforcing the rights of Argentine workers to legally do the job of removing the whaling slaughterhouse.  I guess Ron didn’t agree because he didn’t lift a finger.  After all, England was not your ordinary foreign invader.  It had been our pal throughout the 20th Century and Reagan had established a strong bond with Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who earned her reputation as the “Iron Lady” by calling the Argentine bluff. 

Instead of quietly negotiating away the islands, she sent a task force of ships, submarines, sailors and over 10,000 troops all the way from England.  The task force left on Aprl 5, 1982…just 3 days after the Argentine invasion.  The first encounter of the Brits and Argentines happened on April 25 and by the middle of June, the war was over with an Argentinian surrender…just before the winter got going.  Many historians agree, the biggest mistake of the Argentine Junta was to attack in the fall instead of sticking to their plan of a winter assault.  In the eyes of many, the Argentinians had a good case for obtaining the islands but, the military might and determination of Margaret Thatcher rendered any legitimate points moot.    A little more than a year later, the Argentinian Junta was out of office and any hope of ever getting to the negotiating table with Britain over ceding the islands was doomed.     They never should have neglected the weather forecast.

SPC Thursday Severe Outlook

SPC Thursday Severe Outlook

SPC Sun Severe Outlook

SPC Sun Severe Outlook

Weather Bottom Line:  As I had expected the SPC revised the risk area for severe weather on Thursday.  The map above is the Thursday morning depiction and it will be updated further on Thursday though it probably won’t change much.  If the GFS is correct, we can expect some pretty strong storms with several warnings.  The NAM continues to be less aggressive.  I suspect that we will have thunderstorms with several warnings but they could be weakening a bit should come through in the evening.  However, if they do arrive in the late afternoon, as the GFS suggests, then we could see a number of strong storms.  It will be windy both Thursday evening and Wednesday morning.  The SPC in the extended outlook still does not depict a risk in our area but in my mind, the system coming across appears to be a candidate for some rough weather.  Again, the GFS is extremely aggressive with the storms on Sunday with the indecies so dramatic that if they were to hold, then we’d get whacked pretty good.  We will still have to wait as we’re still talking about 4 days out.  Either way, look for storms late Thursday with some prospect of strong storms and on Sunday with a risk for severe weather.  After that, decidedly cooler than average conditions will move in with highs in the 40’s for the first few days of next week.

 

Tornado Probability Thursday

Tornado Probability Thursday

  DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 AM CDT THU APR 02 2009
  
   VALID 021200Z – 031200Z
  
   …THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN TN…MS…AL…SRN
   GA…NRN FL…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
   ERN TX INTO THE OH VALLEY AND COASTAL CAROLINAS…
  
   …SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
  

Severe Wind Probability Thursday

Severe Wind Probability Thursday

 STATES INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY…
  
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICT CENTER OF UPPER
   LOW OVER NERN NM NEAR TCC…DIGGING SEWD IN LINE WITH 00Z MODEL
   GUIDANCE.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING
   BEFORE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS AR INTO WRN TN DURING THE EVENING HOURS
   AS 90KT+ MID LEVEL JET ROTATES INTO MS/AL.  NEEDLESS TO SAY LOW
   LEVEL RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER JET WILL INTENSIFY AS SFC LOW EVOLVES
   OVER AR BY 18Z WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT AND DEEPENING EXPECTED INTO
   WRN TN BEFORE LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER TONIGHT.
   
  

Severe Hail Probability Thursday

Severe Hail Probability Thursday

 MARITIME AIRMASS HAS YET TO SURGE INLAND SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE
   GULF COAST WITH GREATEST NWD MOVEMENT NOW OCCURRING ACROSS CNTRL TX
   IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC FRONT…AND FARTHER EAST ACROSS PORTIONS
   SRN AL/GA IN ASSOCIATION WITH NWD DRIFTING WARM FRONT.  THIS LATTER
   FEATURE MAY NOT LOOSE ITS IDENTITY AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS
   ALONG/NORTH OF THE WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
  
   LATEST THINKING IS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL SURGE NWD ACROSS
   CNTRL/ERN TX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
   STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 09-12Z.  THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD RAPIDLY NEWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY BY 18Z.  BY EARLY AFTERNOON IT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/HEATING WILL HAVE OCCURRED FROM NRN
   LA/SERN AR INTO WRN TN.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS REGION WILL
   BECOME QUITE SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS SHEAR
   INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.  ANY STORMS THAT EVOLVE
   AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET WILL EASILY
   ROTATE AND IF 60F+ SFC DEW POINTS DO INDEED SPREAD INTO THIS REGION
   THEN TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED…SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG AND LONG
   TRACK.  BETWEEN 18-00Z IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS WILL BE ACROSS NRN LA/SERN AR/MS INTO WRN AL/TN.  DURING
   THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS…A CONCENTRATED ZONE OF SEVERE SHOULD
   SPREAD DOWNSTREAM AS LLJ LIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SFC LOW EJECTS
   INTO SRN IND.
  
   FARTHER SOUTHEAST…WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ANCHORED
   ACROSS SRN GA INTO SRN AL AS PERSISTENT CONVECTION DUE TO WARM
   ADVECTION MAINTAINS ELY COMPONENT AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER
   TEMPERATURES JUST SOUTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  MARITIME TROPICAL
   AIRMASS IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH 70F+ DEW POINTS
   LOCATED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE.  THIS MOISTURE SHOULD CREEP NWWD
   INTO SRN AL PRIOR TO INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH.  EVEN SO…MID-HIGH
   LEVEL FLOW WITHIN SRN STREAM WILL INCREASE WITH TIME AND SHEAR
   PROFILES WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG ATOP AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS.  IN FACT EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THIS FLOW MAY ACTIVATE
   ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH SHEAR/INSTABILITY
   STRONGLY INDICATIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF GENERATING
   TORNADOES…SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG.  IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR
   HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH INTO NRN GA/SC
   WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HEATING.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  IF
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN SPREAD INLAND THEN A RISK OF SEVERE
   SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED…PRIMARY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
  
   ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 04/02/2009

 

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