Nebraska School Kids From the Past Could Tell You that Winter Blizzards Happen
January 12, 2011

Blizzard Before Global Warming

Blizzard Before Global Warming

Blizzard Before Global Warming

Nebraska School Kids January 1888

On This Date In History:  Last year, the East Coast, most famously the Washington DC area, had a few giant snow storms.  Some folks blamed Global Warming.  Around Christmas this year, the northeast got slammed by a big old system that dropped 20 inches on Central Park and gave the mayor a big headache.  Now, there is another similar system that has dumped a bunch of snow and ice in the South and promises to adversely affect the northeast again.  My bet is that New York will get a significant amount of snow but I suspect that Boston will be closer to the target of the 2-foot-type snow totals and blizzard warnings.  In between these events, we had a tornado outbreak in the Ozarks and parts of the Midwest.  Ironically, parts of Arkansas that got whacked with twisters a couple of weeks ago have now had to deal with the snow and ice.  I have fully expected Global Warming articles but haven’t seen much yet.  But, you know what?  It is not unprecedented.  I recall a January  tornado that caused fatalities in Owensboro not too many years ago.  This is a La Nina year and that may have more to do with the persistent pattern we’ve had and when you get a change in the pattern, well, then severe weather can occur in between the wintry stuff.  At this point, the models way out are suggesting another potential severe outbreak in the Ozarks in a couple of weeks.  Not sure if it will happen, but its out there.

While its been snowing in Atlanta, its been in the upper 70’s to near 80 in South Florida, that is about normal. As I alluded, it’s not out of the question that we get a warm up for a few days in the South in a couple of weeks.   Winter weather is not unusual and neither are warm ups, which are  so common that it is known as a “false spring”.  In the Midwest, January 11,888 had been unseasonably warm as had the morning of January 12. A cold front came barreling down with air that dropped temperatures well below zero with high winds. Some reports of the day say that the mercury fell 100 degrees in 24 hours. ..while its possible, that may be an exaggeration.

You Can Read The Book

You Can Read The Book

You Can Read The Book
When the mercury fell, the snow began to fall. Most likely a shortwave blew up from the southwest and grabbed all of the warm moist air to the south and threw it over the cold air. People who had gone to work and especially school children had not dressed for the extreme cold as the whole thing was a total surprise. 235 people died that day, many of them school children trying to get home. Hence, on this date in 1888, the Midwest of the United States suffered from what is now known as either the “Schoolhouse Blizzard,” “The Big Brash Blizzard of 1888” or the “Schoolchildren’s Blizzard.” One story holds that a teacher was trapped in her schoolhouse with 3 children and by 3 pm they had run out of heating fuel. She tried to lead them 82 yards to her boarding house. Visibility was so poor that they got lost in the short distance and the 3 kids died. She survived but lost her feet to frostbite. There are many other tales of rescues using rope to tie children together as they tried to get to safety.  The meteorological details surrounding the 1888 blizzard are interesting and the individual stories quite harrowing.

Extreme weather changes have gone on in this country in the winter for a long long time….long before anyone thought of global warming. Its just that now we have better forecasts to be able to prepare.

Wall Street March 1888

Not A Good Trading Day on Wall Street

It was a tough winter in 1888. In March, New York City had one of its greatest snowfalls and blizzards. From March 12-14, about 50 inches fell and wind drifted the snow to up to 40 feet. The city came to a standstill.  The storm adversely affected cities all up and down the East Coast, including Baltimore, which had temperatures in the mid 40’s the day before the storm hit.   And that winter of 1888 was well before anyone suggests that climate change had any effect on the weather.

Weather patterns really haven’t changed all that much, it’s just that forecasting has gotten so much better as well as communications.  But, snow forecasting remains very difficult and the TV honchos who aren’t on the air insist on public relations campaigns that elevate their tv weather folks to mythical proportions.  Even if a station has a top shelf Meteorologist like Jay Cardosi or Matt Milosevich, Kevin Harned or Marc Weinberg, it’s far from perfect.  It doesn’t help when a tv outfit hires a broadcaster and then labels them as  a Meteorologist. It’s really not fair to that person. Either way, snow/sleet/ice forecasts can be really beyond human abilities and so they change.  The difference between an inch of snow and 5 inches is not much.  And when you throw in ice potential, it really creates a challenge.  Be thankful for what we have today.  Those kids in Nebraska in 1888 could only dream of having someone alert them to the potential danger as did the people along the East Coast later that year.

Massive Haitian Earthquake; Winter Storm Known as “School House Blizzard”
January 12, 2010

Damage in Haiti

Building collapse in Haiti

Major Earthquake In Haiti-

A Major Earthquake centered near of Port Au Prince with a magnitude of at least 7.0 occured on Tuesday evening.  Initial reports are of building collapse and extensive damage.  Haiti is probably the most impoverished nation in the Western Hemisphere and communications are poor to begin with and there is no infrastructure to speak of.  Aid will be difficult to get to people in distress.  President Obama has pledge the aid of the United States.   Reports on television claim there is a Tsunami Watch but information (found below) from the Tsunami Warning Center seems to not confirm media reports.  It will probably be at least until daylight, if not for days, to determine the extent of the destruction and misery of the region.

Earthquake Details
Magnitude 7.0
Date-Time Tuesday, January 12, 2010 at 21:53:09 UTC
Tuesday, January 12, 2010 at 04:53:09 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 18.451°N, 72.445°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region HAITI REGION
Distances 15 km (10 miles) SW of PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti
140 km (90 miles) E of Les Cayes, Haiti
145 km (90 miles) WNW of Barahona, Dominican Republic
1140 km (710 miles) SE of Miami, Florida

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 8.3 km (5.2 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters NST=103, Nph=103, Dmin=365.7 km, Rmss=1.14 sec, Gp= 94°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=7
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID us2010rja6

WEXX32 PAAQ 122203
TIBATE

PUBLIC TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
603 PM AST TUE JAN 12 2010

…A STRONG EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED BUT A TSUNAMI IS NOT
   EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO/ THE VIRGIN
   ISLANDS/ U.S. ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO STATES/ AND EASTERN
   CANADIAN PROVINCES…

NO WARNING… NO WATCH AND NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS.

BASED ON THE EARTHQUAKE LOCATION – MAGNITUDE AND HISTORIC TSUNAMI
RECORDS A DAMAGING TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED ALONG THE PUERTO RICO/
VIRGIN ISLANDS/ U.S. ATLANTIC/ EASTERN CANADIAN AND GULF OF
MEXICO COASTS. EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE CAN GENERATE DESTRUCTIVE
TSUNAMIS ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES IN THE
EPICENTRAL REGION SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY AND TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION.

AT 553 PM ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME ON JANUARY 12 AN EARTHQUAKE WITH
PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE 7.3 OCCURRED
IN THE HAITI REGION.

THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IN EWA BEACH HAWAII WILL
ISSUE MESSAGES FOR AREAS IN THE CARIBBEAN OUTSIDE PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT BY THE
WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER UNLESS ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. SEE THE WEB SITE WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV
FOR BASIC TSUNAMI INFORMATION – SAFETY RULES AND TSUNAMI TRAVEL
TIMES.

Blizzard Before Global Warming

Blizzard Before Global Warming

Blizzard Before Global Warming
On This Date In History:  It’s been exceedingly cold over much of the nation so far this winter.  We are in the midst of a warm up as the long wave pattern finally changes, though our warm up will only take us to at or slightly above seasonal norms.  At this point, there does not appear to be a major change in that pattern through January.  As it stands, for the next couple of weeks, I think that there will be big storms crashing into the Pacific Northwest coast of the US. 

While the warm up will take temperatures to the upper 70’s to near 80 in South Florida, that is about normal.  And, it’s not out of the question that we get an extended extreme warm streak sometime later in the season. It’s not unusual, so much so that it is known as a “false spring”. It has happened before and it happened well before anyone suggests that global warming had started. January warm-ups happen. In the Midwest, January 11, 1888 had been unseasonably warm as had the morning of January 12. A cold front came barrelling down with air that dropped temperatures well below zero with high winds. Some reports of the day say that the mercury fell 100 degrees in 24 hours. ..while its possible, that may be an exaggeration.

You Can Read The Book

You Can Read The Book

You Can Read The Book
When the mercury fell, the snow began to fall. Most likely a shortwave blew up from the southwest and grabbed all of the warm moist air to the south and threw it over the cold air. People who had gone to work and especially school children had not dressed for the extreme cold as the whole thing was a total surprise. 235 people died that day, many of them school children trying to get home. Hence, on this date in 1888, the Midwest of the United States suffered from what is now known as either the “Schoolhouse Blizzard” or the “Schoolchildren’s Blizzard.” One story holds that a teacher was trapped in her schoolhouse with 3 children and by 3 pm they had run out of heating fuel. She tried to lead them 82 yards to her boarding house. Visibility was so poor that they got lost in the short distance and the 3 kids died. She survived but lost her feet to frostbite. There are many other tales of rescues using rope to tie children together as they tried to get to safety. (Blizzard Tales)

Extreme weather changes have gone on in this country in the winter for a long long time….long before anyone thought of global warming. Its just that now we have better forecasts to be able to prepare.

Wall Street March 1888

Wall Street March 1888
Wall Street March 1888

It was a tough winter in 1888. In March, New York City had one of its greatest snowfalls and blizzards. From March 12-14, about 50 inches fell and wind drifted the snow to up to 40 feet. The city came to a standstill.

Weather patterns really haven’t changed all that much, its just that forecasting has gotten so much better. Be thankful for the bus-stop forecast. People get upset if the weather guru on TV says “up to an inch of snow” and they only get a quarter inch, which is what they said but it wasn’t an inch. The folks in the Midwest in 1888 would trade that for what they got any day of the week.

2008 US Coldest in Decade; Children Lost in Blizzard
January 12, 2009

Blizzard Before Global Warming

Blizzard Before Global Warming

On This Date In History:  Aside from a week around Christmas, its been pretty cold around here since mid November.  It’s going to be very cold this week.  But, that doesn’t mean that we won’t have a warm-up before winter is done.  It’s not unusual, so much so that it is known as a “false spring”.   It has happened before and it happened well before anyone suggests that global warming had started. January warm-ups happen.  In the Midwest, January 11, 1888 had been unseasonably warm as had the morning of January 12. A cold front came barrelling down with air that dropped temperatures well below zero with high winds. Some reports of the day say that the mercury fell 100 degrees in 24 hours. ..while its possible, that may be an exaggeration.

You Can Read The Book

You Can Read The Book

When the mercury fell, the snow began to fall. Most likely a shortwave blew up from the southwest and grabbed all of the warm moist air to the south and threw it over the cold air. People who had gone to work and especially school children had not dressed for the extreme cold as the whole thing was a total surprise. 235 people died that day, many of them school children trying to get home. Hence, on this date in 1888, the Midwest of the United States suffered from what is now known as either the “Schoolhouse Blizzard” or the “Schoolchildren’s Blizzard.” One story holds that a teacher was trapped in her schoolhouse with 3 children and by 3 pm they had run out of heating fuel. She tried to lead them 82 yards to her boarding house. Visibility was so poor that they got lost in the short distance and the 3 kids died. She survived but lost her feet to frostbite. There are many other tales of rescues using rope to tie children together as they tried to get to safety. (Blizzard Tales)

Extreme weather changes have gone on in this country in the winter for a long long time….long before anyone thought of global warming. Its just that now we have better forecasts to be able to prepare. 

Wall Street March 1888
Wall Street March 1888

 

It was a tough winter in 1888. In March, New York City had one of its greatest snowfalls and blizzards. From March 12-14, about 50 inches fell and wind drifted the snow to up to 40 feet. The city came to a standstill.

Weather patterns really haven’t changed all that much, its just that forecasting has gotten so much better. Be thankful for the bus-stop forecast. People get upset if the weather guru on TV says  “up to an inch of snow” and they only get a quarter inch, which is what they said but it wasn’t an inch. The folks in the Midwest in 1888 would trade that for what they got any day of the week.

US Temp Graph 1895-2008

US Temp Graph 1895-2008

 Global Warming Update:

  For what it’s worth, NOAA has issued this little tidbit regarding US temperatures for 2008.  As it turns out, temperatures were the coolest in the United States in over 10 years.  Why do I think that this little bit of news was NOT the headline on your local or national newscast?  Had it been the warmest in over a decade, you can bet that it would be.  However, to be fair, it must be pointed out that while it was the coldest since 1997, it was still 0.2 degrees F above the 20th century average and this is hardly evidence of anything one way or another.  Nevertheless, I do not believe that this little anomoly was part of Al Gore’s movie nor a part of the data spit out by the modeling data.  What? Could there be a flaw in the computers?  Consider this…our weather forecast models for daily prognastications have a fair amount of certainty through about 48 to 72 hours and then the accuracy declines rapidly.  In hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center always points out the hurricane forecasts can be up to 200 miles off when looking at a 72 hour landfall.  Yet, the global community is supposed to change fiscal and economic policies and perhaps upset the balance of power in the world based on computer models forecasting decades out.  This past year in the US should be a reminder that man and his machines are fallible and mankind should have a bit more humility in understanding both its capability and also its limitations.  Here is the full report.

GFS Critical Thickness (freezing lines) Fri AM 01.16.09

GFS Critical Thickness (freezing lines) Fri AM 01.16.09

Weather Bottom Line:  As a little addition to the above report, we will be very cold for the week ahead. Monday may see the mercury get around 40ish and then after that, once we fall below freezing, don’t look for a return above 32 degrees until maybe next Sunday afternoon.  I still think that low single digits overnight on Thursday night is not out of the question and highs in the low teens for the last day or so of the week is still not unreasonable.  Keep in mind that the NAM does not advertise snow and also has us above freezing for a short time on Wednesday but it is the odd man out like the last go around.  The GFS is still quite bullish on the colder air with freezing conditions over about 2/3 of the nation all the way to the Gulf Coast.  It is in fair agreement with other long range models.  In that scenario, there will be opportunities for a little snow Monday night through Thursday with Monday night being the best chance.  Overall 72 hour snowfall will probably be less than two inches but its something.  Little disturbances will be wandering through the flow but they will be moisture starved and only the extreme cold will allow them to squeeze whatever moisture is available out as light snow or flurries from time to time.  Remember, there is a 40% chance that we will be warmer than average for January!  Guess we’ll have some catching up to do.