Fewer Hurricanes With Global Warming? May 20, 2008

This is just to highlight a portion of the previous post.  It’s just too good to bury.  A Meteorologist with NOAA who had apparently been an advocate of a link between Global Warming and an increase in Hurricane Intensity and the numbers of hurricanes now has a new report that says the opposite.  Tom Knutson even says that warmer temperatures could decrease hurricane activity and their landfall. That last part is something that I cannot fathom how anyone could make the statement..but he did.  Anyway, here is the article with some other links to the study.  This guy’s new report may be more of an indication that the wheels may be falling off the Al Gore Juggernaut.

New Global Warming/Hurricane Study

 

Weren’t the storms interesting last night? All bark, no bite. Elevated storms that produced lightning and some gusty winds but not much rain. Pretty typical.

Prince Charles Says The World is Doomed Plus More Global Warming News May 20, 2008

The general pattern should persist for the balance of the week and that means our weather should stay about the same.  The ridge of high pressure responsible for the heat in the west is not exactly going to be moving eastward or expand.  The eastern extend will remain just to our west and southwest and the flow over us will remain from the northwest.  An upper low from the northwest will move through late Tuesday providing an opportunity for scattered showers at that time.  The rain for Thursday suddenly dissappered from the data and it now looks like the rest of the week and we will be near seasonal levels.  There will be warmer conditions for the weekend but not the massive heat-up that would occur if the whole ridge shifted or expanded east.  There is a possibility of t’storms late Memorial Day, at this point.

WE’RE DOOMED! Britain’s Prince Charles says in a recent article in the London Telegraph that the earth has just 18 months to act to prevent the destruction of the rain forest or environmental results will be a catastrophe.  His solution is to pay billions of dollars for years.  Here’s part of the problem.  First off, there is no way to support that time-frame.  Then there is the issue of pragmatism.  The rain forest is in the tropical regions and largely is occupied by third world or developing nations.  Those people want to exploit their natural resourses just like this country did.  They don’t react very well when others tell them that they can’t do something that developed countries already have done.  The notion that the rest of the world can simply give them money to not use their natural resources seems nonsensical.  Now, it’s not in anyone’s long term interests to exploit the rain forest with clear cutting as it doesn’t grow back like other forests.  But, the guess here is that they would take the money and then continue to do as they please. 

Prince Charles in the London Telegraph

 

Hurricane Increase Not Caused By Global Warming-new study  Note the person mentioned at the top, Tom Knutson.  He has been a propenent of anthropegenic global warming and he is pooh-poohing the notion that climate change is affecting tropical weather.  That leads us to the next section….

The Global Warming Issue is raising it’s head some more.  There are more and more reports coming out that suggest that the notion that man can alter the climate significantly has more detractors than Al Gore  or the UN have documented as fact.  Recently the Oregon Institution of Science and Medicine issued a report that was signed by over 31,000 experts, including over 9,000 PhD’s, who say the data does not suggest what An Inconvenient Truth or the UN says it does and the fact that the number of backers of this report far outnumber the folks who signed off on the UN report indicates that there is not a consensus in the scientific community.  It’s another example of why that when someone says that the debate is over and that everyone who has a different view should be quiet and the official view should be accepted as fact, then its a red flag.

Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine

 

Here are other sites and reports to refute findings shown as “fact,” including the idea that the Atlantic ocean is warming due to climate change and  including more on the idea that there will be more numerous and more dangerous hurricanes in the future due to global warming.  The bottom line is that there is no consensus on what the public has been fed as fact and there are many variables that have to be considered before reaching a conclusion.  Evidence has been hidden and points of view have been quashed from people and organizations that claim to champion tolerance and openess to debate.

Energy Tribune

 

 ICECAP

 

 

 

Great Day-Let’s Talk About The Burmese(Myanmar) Cyclone, Al Gore and Global Warming May 12, 2008

High pressure has moved in. Lots of sunshine and that will carry into Tuesday.  Don’t be surprised if you push toward 80 on Tuesday afternoon.  We get a front Wednesday with rain and t’storms. The front gets hung up to our south and little disturbances come up along it, giving over-running rain and maybe elevated storms.  Thursday, maybe carrying over to Friday.  Probably a break on Saturday and then a another rain shot on Sunday with another front.  In other words, enjoy today and tomorrow. When it’s not raining at a given time after Tuesday, it will be cooler than seasonal averages.  Snow White and I will be seen biking about. 

On This Date In History: I can’t find much. Pretty boring. Florence Nightingale was born on this date in 1820.  There are three people with the same birtdate in 1950.  Billy Squier is one of them.  If you’re wondering who is Billy Squier, I say, exactly.  You’re not alone.

So What about the Myanmar or Burmese Cyclone and Mr. Gore’s claim its due to global warming?

To be very honest, It’s been very difficult to find just a straight story on what Mr. Gore said.  Most have greatly opinionated the subject from the very opening comment.  Well, I”ve chosen three links for you.  One is from Newsweek and is a back and forth with a Meteorologist regarding the Cyclone. The the other is from mediamatters, which is defending Mr. Gore’s statements and claiming that they are all true. And the third is a piece with a different tilt than media matters.

Media Matters-Al Gore Myanmar Cyclone

 

Newsweek Q&A Myanmar Cyclone

Business & Media Institute’s Opinion 

 

Here’e the deal. Mr. Gore continues to claim that there is an increasing number of category 5 hurricanes.  That we are going into a what has been seen by hurricane experts for years to be an increased cycle of hurricanes goes unmentioned.  On that mark, there were a number of very intense storms in the 1910 to 1940. Florida just got ripped across so badly that in caused a very big economic depression down there as land prices tanked and speculators took a bath.  Then it was quiet, then it was active, then it was quiet from the early 1970’s until the late 1990’s.  Remember Andrew in late August 1992 was the first hurricane of the season. I don’t think there were many more after that.  Now, the theory is that we are moving through the first stage of a 30 year period of more intense and more numerous hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin.  It was not related to global warming.  Here is a link to the most intense storms in US history. You will find some recent ones but a whole bunch from other times.  Eight of the top 30 fall between 1910 and 1940.  21 of the top 30 were prior to 1965.  Here’s the link.

Most Intense US Hurricanes

 

Hundreds of thousands have died in Bangladesh and Pakistand and India from cyclones, often with one single storm. The largest storm death is something like 500,000 in Bangladesh in 1970 and that was a category 3 storm. Was that Global Warming? They didn’t think so then…instead they blamed in their own fault for not warning the people and they installed a much better warning system and communications system so the people know and have time to prepare or move out.

 The truth is that this cyclone, or hurricane as we call it, had winds of what I had heard was 120 mph and what this guy says “up to” 150 mph which tells me it was probably sustained 120 and gusts to 150. That is not a huge hurricane. Katrina was not a category 5 hurricane. New Orleans did not get hit by a hurricane, Mississippi did. In both cases, there was a storm surge in a heavily populated area where the land is just barely above sea level. In the case of New Orleans there were levees and relatively sturdy housing. In the delta of the river in Myanmar, there was not sturdy housing, there was no levee system and the natural barrier of vegitation and such that could have helped had been taken out on purpose by the government.

Hurricanes serve a purpose. It is to transport heat and moisture from the tropical regions to the polar regions. There have been strong storms for a long time. The most recent that have caused death and destruction were strong but not too unprecedented or even close to historic. The death and destruction was caused more by the activity and living patterns of humans. What I just said is way way more supportable than Mr. Gore’s contention. This storm, the one in China last year (notice in the article Gore only said it was the strongest in 50 years..not the strongest ever and he did not give the winds or category) or Katrina, were storms that hit the wrong place. If the storm in China was the strongest in 50 years, was the one 50 years ago caused by something other than natural causes? Who’s to blame for that one? Katrina was a Category 3 hurricane at landfall with a huge storm surge(over 30 feet in MS) more associated with a category 5 hurricane exasperated by the geographic make up of that part of the Gulf of Mexico. The storm surge in Burma was about 15 feet but went many miles inland. The area is a swamp and barely above sea level. The governement or anyone didn’t tell them that they were in danger. The information was there. The communications system is not what it is in the US. The people drowned. End of story.

If you are looking for support for global warming, you need to look elsewhere than hurricane data. It’s simply not there, unless you are trying to build a case for something that may earn you a lot of money.