Ben Franklin Flies Kite Into History, Though He Wasn’t The First June 10, 2010

Franklin Developed the Declaration of Independence with Adams and Jefferson

On This Date in History: Benjamin Franklin was remarkable.  He invented the pot-bellied stove that bears his name, bifocal glasses and a number of other items. He was a successful printer and, of course, statesman.  He was the first Postmaster General of America, contributed to the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution as well as a diplomat throughout the American Revolution.  While he is considered a key member of America’s founding fathers, his scientific endeavors have left him with a legacy of one of the great experimental scientists of the 18th Century.  Franklin is  largely credited with proving that lightning was electrical in nature.   Now, he first proposed an experiment in which he would attach a long iron rod to a box and then place the box and rod atop a bell tower or something else tall. He then would have a man in the box holding on to the rod.  If the person thought it was too dangerous, then he could hold on to a wax handle attached to a wire that was attached to the rod.   Franklin never tried his experiment with the rod sticking 20 or 30 feet above his box.  But a few other people in Europe did.  Swedish physicist G. W. Richmann met an untimely death in Russia in 1753 trying the experiment out. 

Young Printer Ben

On this date in 1752, Franklin attempted his other great idea and that was with the kite.  Keep in mind, that some accounts have different dates.   He thought it was more practical than his previous proposition because it would extend higher in the sky and was a mobile experiment.  He could go to the storm instead of the storm coming to him.  He attached a key on the string and when the lightning hit the kite, he received a shock. See, electricity had already been discovered and lightning was hypothesized to be electrical based on observation but Franklin wanted to prove it.  Some claim that Ben had an early capacitor, a Leyden Jar, attached that stored the charge.  Either way, Franklin generally gets credit for proving that lightning was electrical and he lived to tell about it.  But….there was this French guy…Thomas-Francois D’Alibard… tried Franklin’s proposed experiment in May 1752 near Paris.  Apparently, Franklin had published an outline of the experiment that he proposed.  D’Alibard attempted the experiment before Franklin had an opportunity to do so and it worked.  The Frenchman lived to tell about it and he did so.  But,  no one seems to remember D’Alibard.  I can’t even find a picture or painting of D’Alibard.   Perhaps he didn’t shout it loud enough or maybe  it was due to the fact that  it was Franklin’s idea and Franklin’s published experiment.  In any event, Ben gets the credit.  In this account, the author says that Dr. Franklin never recorded the events of his kite flying experiment but instead apparently dictated the account to Joseph Priestley who published the story of the event 15 years after the experiment.  In this account, Priestley says that Franklin touched his knuckle to the key to confirm the presence of electricity.  Interestingly, Priestley also seems to confirm that, not only did the Frenchmen conduct the experiment a month before, but that Franklin was aware of the claim but not before he made his own experiment.   

Schematic of Franklin's Lightning Bells

 Franklin went on to invent the lightning rod to protect homes from the electricity he proved.  He also  coined the terms still in use today that are related to electricity:   battery, conductor, condenser, charge, discharge, uncharged, negative, minus, plus, electric shock, and electrician.   Dr. Franklin followed up his kite experiment with another device he called lightning bells.   In September 1752, he took an iron rod to draw electricity down to his house during a thunderstorm so he could conduct more experiments.  It was attached to bells and when the bells rung, then he knew it was electrified.  Much to his surprise, Franklin found that the bells would ring when there was no lightning or thunder present but instead just a dark cloud.  Other times the bells would stop ringing after he observed the flash of lightning. 

Why this French guy or Franklin wasn’t killed is more of a miracle than anything else. They had no idea that the temperature lightning can be as high as  50,000 degrees F and have millions of volts and tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of Amps.  It is has been speculated that, in cases in which people have been hit by a full stroke of lightning, they are vaporized.  My guess is that in both cases, the two of them captured but a small portion of the actual lightning strike and therefore only received a small shock.  Otherwise, Ben might not have made it on the $100 bill or been around to help found the nation.

Franklin's observer was his son, who was a full grown man at the time

If you look at the picture above….there is another person.  In many paintings, there is this unidentified person with Franklin.  I had heard years ago that really an African American slave held the key and was killed, which explains why Franklin didn’t die.  But, that seems very unlikely since Franklin was a Quaker and was against slavery wholeheartedly.  Instead, the other person portrayed is that of Franklin’ s son.  Ben didn’t  like to advertise his experiements because, when something went wrong, he would be subject to ridicule from the public.  So, the only person he told about his conducting the kite experiment was his son, who was in his early 20’s at the time.  In some paintings, the extra person is a young boy as some artists assumed that, if Franklin’s son was present, he must have been a young boy and not a full grown man.  There is another error in the painting.  Franklin was under a shed or some other awning for protection from the rain.  He wasn’t standing out in a thunderstorm.   

It Was Hector Heathcote!

 I like another explanation as to why Franklin wasn’t killed.  There was a cartoon with a guy named Hector Heathcote who always was involved in historical events. In one episode, Franklin was flying his kite and he handed it to Heathcote for a moment. At that moment, lightning struck and Heathcote was electricuted!  I say it was Hector Heathcote that discovered electricity!  Yes indeed.  American television cartoons uncovered the mystery and you heard it here first.  Perhaps Hector should be on the $100 bill.

SPC Severe Weather Outlook Saturday

Weather Bottom Line:  It’s going to be pretty warm on Thursday and early Friday, we have a warm front moving north.  What that will do is open us up to a southerly flow and an increase in moisture.  So, with temperatures pushing toward 90 and increased instability brought about with higher moisture, we could see some afternoon thunderstorms on a scattered basis.  Saturday, we have a cold front coming down into the moisture  rich environment.  In addition to the lifting feature of this front, there will no doubt be some waves of energy wandering along the front.  Hence, Saturday there will be the prospects of some strong storms in the area.   At one time, the front was progged to come through and cool things off but now, it would seem unlikely as the long wave flow is such that the boundary will most likely simply stay to our north and slip by to the east.  With that scenario, we will continue dancing with 90 for the foreseeable future.

Immigration To US Has Been Controversial for over 150 Years June 8, 2010

1899 Cartoon: Immigrant-"Can I come in?" Uncle Sam- "I 'spose you can; there's no law to keep you out."

Big Daddy Grover?

On This Date in History:  Grover Cleveland was the only president to serve two non-consecutively terms as President of the United States. So, it is quite common for him to be  listed as the 22nd and 24th President.  In his first campaign, there was much mud-slinging between he and Republican James G. Blaine.  The accusations against Blaine were pretty pedestrian.   They claimed that he took bribes.  Cleveland was accused of fathering a child with a woman to whom he was not married!   In a world in which we are used to politicians making denials to claims against them, Cleveland took a novel approach.   Guilty as charged.  He acknowledged the legitimacy to the question and said that the child was indeed his.  The American people seemed to shrug their shoulders and Cleveland was promptly elected.  Goes to show, all you need to do is tell the truth!   It’s amazing how difficult it is for some politicians to try such a simple and winning formula. Interestingly, the mother named the baby boy, Oscar Folsom Cleveland.

Grover's Bride Was His Best Friends Daughter

Now, Cleveland was an attorney by trade and he had a partner in practice by the name of Oscar Folsom, which raises the question as to why the mother used both the law partner’s names.  Anyway,  Folsom died in 1873 following an unfortunate carriage accident and left his old friend Grover to manage the estate.  And manage he did!  No, he didn’t marry his good friend’s wife…he married his daughter.  Frances Clara Folsom was but 9 years old when her father died but Cleveland made sure that she and her mother’s finances were in order.  After Frances Clara  graduated from Wells College, he proposed marriage.   Frances was not one to make a rush decision so she took a trip to Europe to clear her mind.  When she returned, no doubt some thought she had lost her mind because the on June 2,  1886, President Grover Cleveland became the first president to be married in the White House to Frances, who was 27 years his junior.  I wonder if when she was growing up she called him “Uncle Grover.” 

Doubtful that the Baby Ruth Bar Was Named For Cleveland's Daughter Ruth

They had several children, one of which was Ruth.  The official story by the maker of the “Baby Ruth” candy bar was that it was named after the President’s daughter.  Somehow, a judge sided with the company in a lawsuit it brought against the makers of the “Babe Ruth Home Run Bar” saying the competitor’s name too closely resembled “Baby Ruth.”  Trouble is, Ruth Cleveland died in 1904, the candy company wasn’t in existance until 1916 and the “Baby Ruth” bar wasn’t born until 1921…or about the time that a certain George Herman Ruth was beginning to make a name for himself.  But, the makers stuck to the story  and, to this day as far as I know, the estate of Babe Ruth has not gotten a dime from the makers of the bar.

Big Daddy Grover-Investigated Anyone in Gov't Who Was Not Born in the US...How Would That Fly Today?

So, let’s jump ahead almost to the Cleveland’s 10th wedding annivesary.  President Cleveland was in his second term as President and was the defacto head of a Democrat Party.  Now, at this time there were no real laws to limit or control immigration.  Yet, anti-immigrant sentiment had run high in the nation throughout the 19th century.  In Antebellum America there was even a political party called the American Party that had some cloudt and became known as the “Know Nothings” with a platform that took an exceptional view of Americans born in the country and opposed any “non-native” Americans.  Well, by the late 19th Century, the Democrat Party had taken the lead in anti-immigrant sentiments.  Hence, as head of that party,  on this date in 1896 Cleveland ordered his cabinet secretaries to determine exactly how many foreigners worked in the federal government.  Much like illegal immigrants today, late 19th Century immigrants from Europe were blamed for rising crime rates. Cleveland held these “aliens” responsible for bringing with them ideas like socialism and communism. Once he found out the identities of the culprits, he had them investigated for potential subversive behaviour.   Cleveland maintained that it was his duty and the right of the government to “prevent the influx of elements hostile to its internal peace and security…even where there is not treaty stipulation on the subject.” I’m just not sure how far back Cleveland took this. I mean, ultimately, everyone except for the Native Americans were immigrants at one point or another. If the investigators took it to the limit, then they’d have to investigate everyone in the government including the other investigators and the President himself!!

We are a Nation of Laws

Today, we often hear of protestors who claim that governmental is unconstitutional or over-reaching.   Many times, those bringing the charges are simply not well versed in Constitutional Law but, some times, the charges may hold merit.  Either way,  it would be wrong to assume it had never happened in American history.   And it would be wrong to assume that the country would necessarily fall to pieces if the supposed un-Constitutional behavior of the government came about.  Eventually, we seem to get things right.   The pendulum of power has always swayed too and fro and as long as there are counterbalances amongst the people, the branches of government and the judicial system then things tend to work out in the end.  The key to this democracy, in my view, is to maintain the balance of power between states, Congress, the executive and judiciary and to make certain that each part of government is by and for the people, not by and for those who would make themselves king or the would-be king makers.

SPC Severe Outlook Tuesday...I wouldn't worry about it.

Weather Bottom Line:  Snow White and I had planned to take our niece, McKenna, to visit the animals at Henry’s Ark today.  My sister-in-law informed us “it’s supposed to rain” on Tuesday.  I told her nonsense.  But, it’s an example of how people perceive forecasts.  I told you yesterday that I had seen forecasts of 50% chance of rain for Tuesday and 50% on Wednesday and then it changed to 40% on Tuesday and 60% on Wednesday.  Either way, when someone sees 40% then most people assume its going to rain.  The truth is, it has been my experience that the majority of people on TV don’t even know what the rain chance means.  They will usually say that a 40% chance of rain means that there will be “a 40% coverage of rain.”  That would be wrong.  Officially what it means is that at the forecast site, in this case the airport, given the forecast conditions that there would be measurable rain in that rain gauge 40 out of 100 days of similar weather conditions.  It has nothing to do with coverage nor with rain amounts.  In order for it be to an issue of coverage, uou would have to have a rain gauge about every 100 feet in the area because one must be able to verify an hypothesis.  Now, the last station I worked for was quite reasonable because no one lives at the airport.  So, we modified the meaning to say that at any given point in our viewing area we were forecasting that there would be rain 40 out of 100 days. 

SPC Severe Outlook Wednesday

When I forecast, I always took the public perception into account.  I personally did not think it would rain on Tuesday but had noted that a couple of models wanted to throw out a few sprinkles.  I  figured that the best chance for rain would be after midnight and on Wednesday.  So, I would have put a 20% or 30% chance of rain on Tuesday because when people see that, they think that it won’t rain and I didn’t much think that it would but would have allowed for perhaps an outside possibility.  By elevating the rain chances to say 70% for late Tuesday night and Wednesday, that would indicate to people when the best chance for rain was and also play to the perception that 70% means to most people that it will indeed rain. 

SPC Wednesday Severe Probability

All of this is holding true.  Our air is just so doggone dry that I don’t see how the storms from the west will be able to hold together and by the time they get here, it will be after dark.   On Wednesday, the storms will get going again but the best chance for them to really get rambunctious would be to our east when they are  moving through  the heating of the day.  My guess is that we get rain in the first part of Wednesday and those storms become stronger as they head toward Lexington.  However, should the initiation take place just to our west on say an outflow boundary left over from the Tuesday storms, then there would be the potential for some strong storms on Wednesday.   So, I would say that its possible but  not probable for strong storms in our region but that at least some shower or even thundershower activity will be in the region.  After that, it gets hot heading into next weekend when it would appear that there may be another opportunity for strong storms.

Skid Road to Skid Row: Seattle Pays Its Namesake For His Trouble June 7, 2010

Skid Road Seattle

Skid Road Near Utsalady

On This Date in History:  In the early 1850’s, white settlers set up logging operations in what is now Seattle.  The settlement was mainly made up of men which prompted Asa Mercer to set up a scheme to import women to the region.  About 140 years later that effort was made famous in a television adaptation called Here Comes the Brides.   Now, what the area lacked in women it made up in timber.  The area was teeming with trees but they needed a way to easily get the felled trees to the sawmill set up in the town.   They used to skid logs down a chute on the main street to get them to the sawmill. The road came to be known as “skid road”.    Later, as the town’s main center moved north, the road was left in a dilapidated part of town filled with drunkards and derelicts. The part of town went from being known as “skid road” to “skid row” and today the term “skid row” has made its way into the American lexicon for the dilapidated area of any town in the country.

Skid Road Near Snoqualmie

By the end of the Civil War, business was blowing and going in the Pacific Northwest as westward expansion was back on the minds of Americans (it never really abated much) and there was the issue of reconstructing all of the destruction brought on by the Civil War.  So, Seattle was a growing, bustling town and skid road was no doubt a busy  timber thoroughfare. Amidst all of this,  On This Date in 1866, an Indian Chief died. He was a chief of the Duwamish and Suquamish tribes having gained the leadership of both tribes by having a Suquamish father and a Duwamish mother. He was born in the late 18th century and by the 1850’s,  when white settlers from America started setting up villages, the chief welcomed the strangers.   Inn homage to his kindness, the settlers named the village they set up on Puget Sound for him. They called it Seattle. Chief Seattle  (aka Sealth) was a pretty smart guy as, even though he thought the whites would eventually eradicate his people, he figured that fighting them would only hasten their demise. A couple of other tribes disagreed and started a war, only to surmise that Seattle was probably right all along and they too put down their weapons and made the best of the situation as they could.

Chief Seattle An Unlikely Benefactor For the Pacific Northwest

However, Chief Seattle had a little problem. In the Indian tradition, the mention of a dead man’s name would disturb his eternal rest and with a town bearing his name, the Chief would be quite restless in eternity. Well, the settlers couldn’t possibly change the name of their town. So, instead, they came up with a truly American solution.  For the discomfort of his having to live eternity in a restless state they thought that they would pay him to make his final years on earth a little more settled.  Americans from the beginning of the nation have been repulsed by the idea of taxation when they felt it was subjected on them by outside forces.  But this was different because the citizenry levied a tax on themselves to raise money for a little fund that they paid to Chief Seattle before he died as a payoff for the trouble he would be in when he passed from this world. On June 7, 1866 Chief Seattle died and by not living longer, Seattle gave one more gift to the people of the town that bore his name:  he saved the taxpayers of Seattle money.

SPC Severe Outlook Tuesday

Weather Bottom Line:  I have to say that in a quick analysis of the maps and other data, I was fully prepared to say that we have a decent risk of severe weather on Wednesday.  We have a low coming through the flow that will be just to our North and closer than the last one that moved west to east along the lower Great Lakes and brought a bunch of nasty weather from Northern Illinois through Northern Ohio over the weekend.  It seemed a reasonable assumption.  But, closer examination gives me some pause.

SPC Severe Outlook Wednesday

First off, I’ve seen several forecasts that have Tuesday with either an equal or even higher rain chance than Wednesday.  The boys at the SPC have our area on the eastern edge of the area of slight risk for severe weather on Tuesday.  Then, we’re on the western periphery of a smaller area for the Wednesday slight risk.  From observing the maps, I was not certain exactly why they would be so agressive on the Tuesday outline.  The only thing that I could figure was that they were looking at perhaps storms to the west holding together sufficiently to make it to our area before midnight.  I’m not so sure  I buy this.  We’ve got pretty dry air over us and I”m not so sure that the atmospheric column will destablize enough by late Tuesday to support any such storms.  The GFS does throw out a few showers on Tuesday afternoon but the NAM keeps us dry.

SPC Wed Severe Weather Probability

I had anticipated that severe parameters derived from forecast vertical profiles would reveal a healthy severe chance for Wednesday when the low actually comes close, we would have an extra day to reload the atmosphere with warm and more humid air and with some afternoon heating.  But, alas, neither the vertical profiles of the NAM or the GFS are very exciting for Wednesday either.  I am speculating that is the reason why the severe area for Wednesday is mainly to our east and also relatively small in areal coverage.  When the best dynamics swing through here, they come after midnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.  When the afternoon heating kicks in, those areas of greatest instability and dyanmic forcing is to our east.  This is all just a bunch of machines talking.  What I would expect would be increasing clouds and humidity on Tuesday and it will be mainly dry with perhaps some scattered stuff late Tuesday.  I will suppose that the SPC has a handle on this but will keep in mind that the low will not move quite as fast, thus providing a more elevated risk for rain and t’storms on Wednesday though I have only marginal data to support any real significant severe weather in our area.  In essence, for me I’m not so sure that Wednesday will be so sedate but would not anticipate wide spread death and destruction.  Things will be more clear on Tuesday.  We get much warmer by next weekend.

Elvis Presley’s 1st National TV Appearance Huge, Not On Sullivan June 5, 2010

Elvis Began His Road to Coronation As King of Rock and Roll on the Milton Berle Show June 5 1956

On June 5, 1956 A National TV Audience Got the Full Elvis on the Milton Berle Show

On this Date in History:  I would wager that if someone asked you which TV show was Elvis Presley’s first television appearance, you would answer the Ed Sullivan Show.  That would be wrong.  His first TV appearance was on January 28, 1956 on the little remembered, Stage Show, co-hosted by Jimmy and Tommy Dorsey.  He appeared on the next 3 episodes and a total of 6 appearances.  I’m not sure if the show lasted much longer than that but the press really didn’t pay much attention.  His first national TV appearance was on April 3, 1956 on the Milton Berle Show.   Berle remembered that there were many stars on that night including Hugh Jarrett, Esther Williams, Buddy Rich and Harry James.  Milton Berle also mentioned Buddy Hackett but the rundown of those who appeared does not list Hackett.  In any event, Elvis was an unknown young performer.  Elvis’s agent, Colonel Parker (see book about Parker and Presley) had called Berle and asked him to give Elvis an audition.  Berle did and was impressed enough to book Elvis on the show.  Elvis performed “Shake Rattle and Roll,” “Heartbreak Hotel” and “Blue Suede Shoes.”  Of the three, Elvis wrote “Heartbreak Hotel.”

Steve Allen Came Up With a Creative Way in Which to Control Presley When He Sang "Hound Dog"

The story gets a little cloudy here because in an interview of Berle, he seems to mix two appearances into one.  Apparently, Elvis was gaining in popularity but the press still generally ignored him.  You see, it was the second appearance of Elvis on the Milton Berle Show on this date in 1956 that launched him into immortal superstardom.  On that show, Elvis performed “Hound Dog.”   For some reason, the press decided to pay attention this time.  Perhaps Elvis had not shown much style in his first appearance but I suppose he was feeling more confident the second time around because he showed off his moves.  He gyrated and shook and the kids went wild, the parents were aghast and the censors were frantic.  The New York Journal-American wrote that the young man’s “primitive physical movement difficult to describe in terms suitable to a family newspaper.”  The San Francisco Chronicle called the performance “In appalling taste.”  The New York  Daily News said that Elvis “gave an exhibition that was suggestive and vulgar, tinged with the kind of animalism that should be confined to dives and bordellos.”  Berle said that 4 days after the show he received 400,000 “pan” letters.  Not “fan mail” but “pan mail.”  People wrote to Berle and said that they would never watch his show again after he showed that disgusting young man.  Berle said that he called Colonel Parker to inform him that he had a star on his hands.  Berle recognized that if that many people took the time to write letters then he had to be on the minds of just about everyone.  All publicity is good publicity.

Sullivan Initially Said No To Elvis

Now, Ed Sullivan had vowed to never book Elvis on his show due to all of his controversial wiggling.   But, there were more shows besides Sullivan.  Three days prior to his groundbreaking second appearance on Milton Berle, Elvis showed up on Your Hit Parade and went on the show again on June 9, 1956.  The first of July found Elvis on the Steve Allen Show where he wore a tuxedo as he performed “Hound Dog” singing to a sad looking basset hound.  Allen had considered pulling him from the show after the backlash of the Berle appearance.  Instead, he took a comic approach and put Elvis in the tuxedo with the dog in an effort to control him.  Elvis went along with it.   An appearance with Jack Benny followed that.  Sullivan had turned down an offer to pay $5000 to put Elvis on his show but after Allen with Elvis destroyed Sullivan without Elvis in the ratings, old Ed promptly changed his mind.  The show was called originally called “Toast of the Town” and the guest host on September 9, 1956 was Charles Laughton of Captain Bligh fame from Mutiny on the Bounty.  Also on the show was the same Hugh Jarrett who was booked on the Milton Berle show on which Elvis made his national debut.   Sullivan wasn’t in the New York theatre as he was recovering from injuries suffered in an automobile accident so Laughton filled in.  Elvis wasn’t in the theatre either.  He was in Hollywood shooting his first movie.  So, Laughton tossed to the guest by saying “away to Hollywood to meet Elvis Presley.”  Elvis performed from a studio there.  Sullivan was happy because his show that night got boffo ratings and he must have also been relieved.  His delay resulted in Sullivan signing Elvis for 3 appearances for $50,000 which was an unheard of some in those days. 

I Think Charles Laughton in 1935 Made a Better Bligh Than the Real Bligh

By not having Elvis on sooner, Sullivan may have helped himself even though he cost himself money.  Other shows built his popularity so, by the time he made it to the biggest show on TV, the Sullivan Show, people watched in record numbers.  Myths get spread so much that often that the myth becomes the truth.  As previously mentioned, many people probably remember the Sullivan appearance as Elvis’s national TV debut.  They also probably recall that the censors on Sullivan’s show required that all shots of his performances would be from the waste up.    Well, on that first Sullivan appearance, his first song was “Don’t be Cruel” and the cameras did in fact stay from the waste up, showing The King in a very loud plaid jacket.  But the jacket was not the only thing that screamed out.  Women in the audience were screaming at something Elvis did beyond the camera range.  He then performed “Love Me Tender” which was his new song associated with his first movie of the same title.  But, the cameras gave the television audience the full Elvis for his second segment.  They showed his feet, his hips, his legs…everything wildly moving about as he performed the Little Richard song “Ready Teddy” and a couple of verses of “Hound Dog.”  So, Elvis was not really censored by Ed Sullivan. 

Plenty of Ladies Got to See Elvis Wiggle on the Sullivan Show

The myth was created by the press who noted that tight shots were used whenever he started to dance.  Perhaps it was censorship but more likely it was a director taking different camera shots.  The audience saw plenty of Elvis in action and they certainly heard the women in the audience sqeal every time Elvis grunted, crossed his eyes, moved his tongue or even just stood perfectly still.  Laughton concluded the show by saying, ”Well, what did someone say? Music hath charms to soothe the savage breast?”  On that night, Ed Sullivan’s show was seen by  82.6% of the total television audience in America.  Steve Allen didn’t even try as NBC pre-empted his show with a movie. 

It may have been Parker (left) and Not Sullivan who had the cameras show Elvis from Waist Up for just one song but the public got the "Full Elvis" on other segments. Myth Busted

Now, the last time that Elvis appeared on Sullivan’s show (by that time it was called the Ed Sullivan Show) was on January 6, 1957 and the TV camera’s did indeed only show him from the waste up as he sang the Gospel song,  “Peace in the Valley.”  Given that these close ups were for a non-rock and roll tune, many historians believe it was Parker’s idea to limit the camera shots as a way of creating publicity and not an order from Sullivan.   Elvis never performed for Sullivan again but it wasn’t because Ed was upset; he was a tightwad.  Colonel Parker had raised the fee for his star to perform on TV to $300,000 with a stipulation that the network had to agree to put him on two additional guest spots as well as a one hour special.  Parker credited the Sullivan appearances as the key to the success of the single and the movie “Love Me Tender.”  And many music and tv historians say that it was the 3 Sullivan appearances by Elvis to gain support from the parents of the kids who already loved  the king as Sullivan somehow bridged a generation gap.  Obviously, Elvis’s movements were tame by today’s standards, or lack thereof, but it was his breakthrough in his performing style that continues to influence rock stars today.

SPC Severe Outlook Saturday June 5, 2010

Weather Bottom Line:  A pretty strong cold front is sagging down from the North.  It will eventually get here but during the afternoon and early evening heating hours the focus of the attention will generally be to our North.  The SPC has put an area from near Gary, IN to Seymour IN in a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms with a 10% risk of tornadoes, a 30% chance for hail and 45% chance of high winds.  The reason for this is that there will be a little jet streak running across the region as the front sags through.  By the time the front gets to Louisville,it will be night and the heating of the day will be on the wane and the jet streak will have moved through.  However, there will be sufficient latent heat to support thunderstorms with the frontal passage.  While the slight risk of the severe weather threat is officially to the North of Louisville, do not be surprised to see some strong storms in our area on a isolated basis. 

Once the front moves through, we will get relief from the heat and humidity with highs on Sunday and Monday in the low 80’s to upper 70’s.  It will warm back up by the middle to late part of next week.  Depending on how pokey this front is, it is possible on Sunday to have some isolated, mainly elevated afternoon storms in the afternoon.

What If An Astronaut Just Said No? June 3, 2010

Famous and Spectacular Photo of Ed White Taking a Walk

I Love This Movie

On This Date in History:  If you recall the movie The Right Stuff based on Tom Wolfe‘s book of the same name, the original Mercury astronauts are portrayed as tough, independent thinking, test pilots.  As part of the space program, the test pilots were controlled by NASA engineers and administrators by appealing to their duty as military officers as well as their patriotic duty.  In time, however, the astronauts realize that, without them there was no program.  NASA had created heros in the minds of the public and, in doing so, inadvertantly created monsters.  In one scene, the movie shows the astronauts joining together and influencing the design of the spacecraft so it would have a window and also an explosive hatch.  Later, it even suggests that they influenced decisions regarding flight assignments.  I don’t know the exact veracity of the movie but I do know that Tom Wolfe wrote an excellent book and he is well respected for the research he devotes to any given subject.  So, I am certain that there was some truth to the notion that these astronauts were extremely independent.

1st to Walk In Space Leonov Had His Record Smashed By White

Much of the movie takes place in the 1950’s and early 1960’s at the outset of the US manned space program and the beginning of the space race with the Soviet Union.  By 1965, the astronaut corps had expanded and missions had become of a longer duration and the crew size had doubled.  However,  in general, NASA was typically slightly behind the pace set by the Soviets during the early years.  So, when astronauts Ed White and Jim McDivitt completed the Gemini IV mission and recorded 66 orbits of the earth, it was an American duration record but short of the Soviet mark.  More notably, Gemini IV focused on America’s first space walk.  As had been the case with other milestones, when Ed White left the confines of the Gemini IV capsule on this date in 1965, a Soviet had already accomplished the feat.  Cosmonaut Aleksei Leonov was the first person to venture into open space  during the Voskhod II mission on March 18, 1965.  

In Space, which way is up?

But, it was still a big deal and White found it quite exhilerating.  White had floated out of the spacecraft at 3:41 pm EDT dangling from a 30 foot line that not only provided life support and communication, but also was his only tether to the remainder of humanity.  It was scheduled to last but 12 minutes.  This was science.  This was serious.  This was dangerous.  This was a military man serving his country.  This was a situation that requried complete control by mission administrators.  White found out that it was also fun.  For  NASA mission specialiists, it was too much fun for White.    You see, near the end of the window for the walk on top of the world, NASA  controllers told McDivitt, “They want you to get back in now.”  McDivitt, in turn, relayed the instructions of White who was having great fun floating freely while whizzing along at about 17,500 mph.  White told McDivitt, “I’m not coming in…this is fun.” 

Lt. Col. Edward H. White Nov 14, 1930 - Jan 27, 1967

McDivitt then ordered White back into the spacecraft with a paternal, “come in.”  White ignored him.  In fairly short order, NASA informed the astronauts that they had just 4 minutes of light left before they reached Bermuda, which was the boundary of the dark side of the earth.  Like a little kid not wanting to come in for dinner, White remained outside the craft.  So, McDivitt turned to a more pleading approach.  “Come on.  Let’s gt ack in here before it gets dark.”  White simply said, “it’s the saddest moment of my life.”  McDivitt reminded White that he had gotten himself in the dog house.   You see, while mission control personnel had very little control over the astronauts and had little recourse if an individual went rogue, eventually any bad boy had to come home.  McDivitt told White, “Well, you’re going to find that it’s sadder when we have to come down with this thing.”

A Rather Interesting View of White Walking in Space

NASA controllers were beside themselves.  Their space walker was floating about, the hatch was still open and the dark side of the earth in less than a minute.  “Gemini 4! Gemini 4! Get back in…you getting him back in?”  McDivitt answered, “he’s standing in the seat now and his legs are below the instrument panel.”  Naturally, only McDivitt and White knew for certain if White was indeed nearly back in but NASA was nonetheless somewhat relieved when it responded, “Okay. Get him back.  You’re going to have Bermuda in 20 seconds.”  White and McDivitt got back safely, though they did miss the splashdown spot by some 80 km.  Nevertheless, White’s refusal to follow orders not only did not hurt his career much, but instead his hero status was greatly enhanced in the eyes of the public.  You see..White’s walk was scheduled to last about 90 seconds longer than that of Leonov.  White unscheduled extension resulted in a spacewalk of around 21 minutes which more than doubled the duration of Leonov.  White may have been second to walk in space but he had smashed the efforts of the Soviets and America loves a winner.

Perhaps McDivitt Took A Photo of White When He Said, "No"

McDivitt went on to command Apollo 9, which was an important lead-up mission to man’s first walk on the moon with Apollo 11.  He retired from the Air Force and NASA in 1972 as a Brigadier General and after serving as Manager of the Apollo Spacecraft Program and program manger for Apollo 12, 13, 14, 15 and 16.  It is possible that White was in line for even greater glory than his space walk and the achievements of McDivitt.  White was assigned to the first Apollo mission along with astronaut Roger Chaffee and Mercury veteran Gus Grissom.  Today, Ed White’s name can be found as the title of elementary. middle and high schools around the country, though the moniker’s have nothing to do with his space walk.  White’s name is included with Grissom and Chaffee for the sacrfice of their lives in the effort to reach the moon.  In one of those very odd and eery historical instances, Grissom remarked prior to the initiation of the Apollo program,  “If we die, we want people  to accept it.  We’re in a risky business and we hope that if anything happens to us, it will not delay the program.  The conquest of space is worth the risk of life.”  

American Heroes Forever: Ed White, Gus Grissom, Roger Chaffee

White, Grissom and Chaffee were all killed when a flash fire swept through their Apollo I capsule during a launch pad test on January 27, 1967.  Grissom would have been pleased in that they did not die in vain.  As a direct result of the tragedy, safety flaws on the spacecraft were revealed and a safer design for future astronauts was adopted.  There was a relatively brief delay but not enough to prevent the nation from reaching its goal of putting a man on the moon and returning him safely by the end of the 1960’s.    Roger Chaffee had never flown in space even though he had been part of the space program for 4 years.  He never did go into space but is an American hero.  Grissom had been one of the original astronauts and White had made that very long space walk.  So, for them, both were American heroes twice which is a tough, dangerous trick that requires dedication, honor, integrity and ultimately immortality.  For Ed White, it also required the ability to have some fun.

Thursday Severe Threat

Friday Severe Threat

Weather Bottom Line:  Been under the weather and I’m not too enthused with this but, as I had said several days ago, Thursday is the risk for severe weather around here with a quasi stationary boundary nearby.  I suspect that the focus will probably be south and east of Louisville but I’m not really paying that much attention.  Gusty winds, maybe hail…that would be the biggest threat I would think.  I’d be more cocerned with rain totals in local places as there will probably be locally heavy rain.  The actual cold front will be flopping just to our north so the focus of strong storms will be just to our north.  Weekend should be fine.  Pop up storm at best on Saturday.  Highs mid to upper 80’s.  Humidity will probably a little more tolerable.  I’m done.

America’s First Woman To Serve as Combat Soldier May 21, 2010

An Artist Rendering of America's First Woman Soldier

General Washington Was Not the Only American Revolution Hero

On This Date in History:  Lord Cornwallis surrendered to General George Washington at Yorktown in October 1781.  This effectively ended the American but not officially.  That did not come about until the signing of the Treaty of Paris in 1783.  So, there was still plenty of fighting going on in the colonies.  Guerrilla bands raped and pillaged in the relative no-man’s land between the colonial lines at Peekskill, NY and the British boundary at Yonkers, NY.  For some reason, these marauders were known as “cowboys.”  I never understand when bad guys get monikered with the “cowboy” name because it tends to impugne the nobel profession. 

If they Knew that Deborah Would become famous, maybe they could have gotten a better artist for posterity

Anyway, in early to mid-June 1782,  there was a skirmish near East Chester, NY in which colonial Private Robert Shurtleff was slashed across his left cheek with a saber.    In early July, another skirmish broke out and this time the young Private took a musketball to the thigh.  Instead of accepting medical attention, Shurtleff crawled into nearby woods and remained until the wound healed over.  Shurtless rejoined the 4th Massachusetts Regiment and marched into battle against the Mohawk Indians in the Adirondack Mountains.  Shurtleff later came down with what was described as a “malignent fever.”  It’s possible that the fever was a result of the leg wound but most accounts suggest it was a bout of influenza.  There was no avoiding the doctor this time as Shurtleff was taken to the hospital.  Delirious with fever, Shurtleff was examined by Dr. Barnabas Biney who soon discovered that the young private was a woman!

A Little More Flattering Sketch of Deborah

Deborah Sampson was a descendant of the Pilgrims as she was related to Plymouth Colony Governor William Bradford.  She felt a desire to join in the revolutionary cause and chose her course.  Trouble was, women were not allowed in the army.  So, she tried to enlist as Timothy Thayer.  Apparently, it was no problem for her to pretend to be a man as she was tall and said to be as strong as most men.  I suppose that she also could party as well as any man because she made the mistake of celebrating her enlistment by indulging at a local tavern.  I’m not sure what she did but an account says that “she all too clearly revealed her identity.”   Not only was she tossed from the army, but the church exommunicated her for “very loose and un-Christian-like” behaviour as well as wearing men’s clothes.  But, Debbie did not give up.

Statue of America's First Female Soldier

Instead, she walked 75 miles to Worcester, MA where she enlisted as Robert Shurtleff and on this date in 1782, Deborah Sampson, a.k.a. Robert Shurtleff, enjoyed her first full day in the army, having successfully enlisted for the second time the previous day. Sampson was perhaps the first woman to serve in the armed forces of America, which of course was in the Continental Army as the United States had not officially been formed.   Deborah had apparently fooled her family as, following the saber wound, she wrote home that she was working in “a large but well regulated family.”  I suppose she thought that was not a lie and, when closely examined, it could be considered a truthful statement.  The army could be considered a family and it certainly was well regulated.   Well, Dr. Biney tried to keep the secret for a while but was forced to spill the beans after his niece fell in love with the “handsome young soldier.”  

Wonder How Maj. General John Patterson Broke the News To General Washington That He Had a Girl in the Continental Army?

I’m sure that his niece was crushed to find out that he was a she. Or maybe, she was crushed because her uncle, in a letter praising Shurtleff,  told General John Patterson that Shurtleff was Sampson and Patterson told General Washington who had her honorably discharged on October 23, 1782.  When the 4th Massachusetts Regminet marched through the street in review, Deborah wore a dress as they passed and not a soul recognized her.  Later she married Benjamin Gannett of Sharon, MA and had 3 kids with him.  In 1792, she successfully petitioned for her back-pay.   You may also find references to Sampson as Deborah Sampson Gannett or as “Deborah Samson” as the family apparently originally did not include a “p” in the spelling of the name. 

Slight Risk Today Methinks Might Should be Expanded South

Methinks that Wind Might Be the Issue in Our Area just south of the 15% probability line

Weather Bottom Line:   I told you a few days ago that the unsettled weather would persist through the end of the week and today will be the last hurrah.  It could be the most active too as we are in a slight risk for severe weather.  The parent low that caused all the ruckous in the South Central Plains is lifting up from the southwest and will pass to our west.  We should be plenty warm and humid enough but it remains to be seen if we get a kicker.  My guess is that the weak frontal boundary will be able to work with reasonably favorable winds and ample instability to provide some tough t’storms.  I would think that hail and strong winds will be the biggest threat in the late afternoon but it wouldn’t be out of the question for a relatively small scale tornado to perhaps spin down off the edge of a bow echo.  I betcha we get pretty windy and have a round of heavy rain…like we need it.  But, my sunflowers certainly are doing well as is my new baby poplar tulip tree.  After this stuff passes, we will have an extended period of warm and mostly rain free weather for the forseeable future.

Douglas MacArthur: Duty, Honor, Country May 12, 2010

General Douglas MacArthur

Douglas MacArthur West Point Cadet

On this Date in History:  Douglas MacArthur was born in Little Rock, Arkansas on January 26, 1880.  He apparently had not done well in school but worked hard at the United States Military Academy and in 1903 graduated at the top of his 93-man West Point class.  As a member of the Army Corps of Engineers he went to the Philippines as a  First Lieutenant before becoming an aide-de-camp to President Theodore Roosevelt in 1906.  During World War I, he was decorated 13 times and had 7 citations for bravery.  In August 1918 he was promoted to Brigadier General and just 90 days later became the youngest division commander in France as he took command of the 42nd Division. 

Captain Douglas MacArthur 1916

After the war, he served as Superintendent of West Point where from 1919 to 1922 he modernized the curriculum and doubled the size of the institution.  Following his time at West Point, he took command of the newly formed Military District of Manila in the Philippines and in 1928 became the President of the United State Olympic Committee.  In 1930 he became the youngest US Army Chief of Staff and strived to modernize the relatively small 135,000 man army.  Up until World War II, the United States had a tradition of only raising a large standing army in time of war.  But, McArthur warned that the rising world tensions were a threat to the United States.  He said, “Pacifism and its bedfellow, Communism, are all about us. Day by day this cancer eats deeper into the body politic.”

Caesar and Ike Make Sure the Vets Get Out of Town

In 1932, World War I veterans marched on Washington demanding their bonus pay from their service in World War I.  The pay was not scheduled to be paid out until later but the veterans were in the need of the money at that time as the country slipped farther into depression.  The military was called out to control the veterans and MacArthur acted with extreme measures.  He had four troops of cavalry with drawn sabres as well as infantry with fixed bayonets supported by tanks to suppress the unrest.  He justified his action against the former soldiers by saying that he feared the United States was on the verge of a Communist revolution.  Also taking part in the actions were future President Dwight D. Eisenhower and future General George S. Patton, Jr.

Pearson Battled MacArthur

As might be expected, a journalist by the name of Drew Pearson wrote scathing articles about MacArthur including charges supported by MacArthur’s ex-wife that his former father-in-law had been instrumental in influencing the decision to promote the general to that of Major General.  MacArthur sued for nearly $2 million and the journalist appeared to be on the ropes when the former Mrs. MacArthur refused to testify.  But, Pearson must have been resourceful because he tracked down a supposed mistress of MacArthur’s who had been sent back to the Philippines.  Pearson acquired a bunch of love letters from Douglas to the woman and, when he presented them to the general, the lawsuit was dropped. 

MacArthur Returned After Much Hardship for US Soldiers Left Behind

President Franklin D. Roosevelt dispatched in 1935 MacArthur to the Philippines to help organize that nation’s defense.  MacArthur retired from the Army but stayed on as an advisor to the Philippines.  As negotiations with the Japanese Empire deteriorated, MacArthur was recalled to active duty by the president and he was charged with mobilizing Philippines defense with a budget of $10 million and a fleet of 100 B-17 bombers.   In October 1941, MacArthur reported that he had 227 aircraft, 135,000 troops and a “tremendously strong offensive and defensive force.”  MacArthur was greatly criticized for not moving his aircraft following Pearl Harbor as on Dec. 8, 1941 the Japanese attacked the Philippines and destroyed about half of his Air Force.  The Japanese invaded and by early 1942, MacArthur had ordered a retreat to Bataan.  On February 22, 1942 MacArthur was ordered to evacuate the Philippines to Australia.  He left behind General Jonathan Wainwright in command of 11,000 troops who managed to hold out against overwhelming forces until May.  Wainwright was forced to surrender but MacArthur had vowed to return.    While in Australia he became the Supreme Allied Commander of the Southwest Pacific and after many battles, Douglas MacArthur returned to the Philippines on October 20, 1944.  Eventually, he accepted the Japanese surrender on the deck of the USS Missouri anchored in Tokyo Bay on September 2, 1945.  He is credited with his leadership in rebuilding post war Japan into a strong democracy and the creation of a booming economic power.

MacArthur's Inchon Strategy Saved South Korea

MacArthur went on to lead the United Nation’s effort in the Korean War.  He had failings and successes.  His bold and daring move to land troops at Inchon on September 15, 1950 turned the tide of what looked to be a hopeless UN effort.  President Truman had told the general to limit the war to the Korean Peninsula as he was fearful of an expanded conflict with the Chinese or perhaps even another global conflict.  But, MacArthur disagreed and pushed the North Koreans so far north that it appeared that he might invade China.  In fact, that is what he favored doing and he began speaking out against the administration.  President Truman removed MacArthur from command in April 1951 and the general returned to actively campaigned against the Democrats in the upcoming election. He backed Republican Senator Robert Taft of Ohio but  General Dwight D. Eisenhower was elected in 1952.  Ike  consulted with MacArthur with regard to Korea.  After MacArthur recommended a nuclear attack on the enemy and also to attack China, Eisenhower gave him no role in the administration. 

JFK Notes From Consultation with MacArthur in 1961

In 1961, the retired general took over the reigns of the Remington Rand Corporation and its annual sales of $1.1 Billion.  But, he was in increasingly poor health.  He had several stints in the hospital and he became increasingly frail as he moved into his 80’s. He consulted on two occasions  with President Kennedy following the failed Bay of Pigs invasion.  He was extremely critical of the advice Kennedy was getting from the military and warned the President against a build-up of forces or involvement in Southeast Asia.  He later gave the same advice to President Johnson. 

MacArthur was arguably one of America’s most brilliant generals and also one of its most flawed.  He is often applauded and also criticized.  But, it was a speech he gave near the end of his life on this date in 1962 that perhaps is his most endearing memory.  Much like Ted Williams last hit (home run) or Michael Jordan’s final shot for the Chicago Bulls, General Douglas MacArthur went out in style.  Noting his failing health,  West Point honored MacArthur with the Sylvanus Thayer Award for outstanding service to the nation.  The year before, it had been bestowed upon General Eisenhower.  But, no one recalls the former President’s speech.  It is MacArthur’s speech that still echoes in the halls of West Point and the theme is one that I think many Americans could stand to hear today:  Duty, Honor, Country.

SPC Severe Outlook Thu AM to Fri AM

Thursday Evening

Weather Bottom Line:  Wednesday morning we had the remnant of those t’storms that had rumbled out west on Tuesday afternoon and night.  It would appear that the GFS had a better handle on the situation than the other models.  As the heating of the day wore on, those storms moved East of Louisville and dropped some fairly significant rains in some areas that really didn’t need it.  This slow moving big trof continues to trudge eastward slowly.  The boundary is still to our west moving slowly along the front of the trof.  It’s the same story with trying to time impulses moving through the flow.  The GFS illustrates pretty well the situation in that it indicates a whole mess of energy with the warm, moist unstable air.  That means that all it needs is a catalyst to tap into the moisture.  There really isn’t much in the way of veering so the helicity and SWEAT indeces aren’t too impressive for most of the day.  At 11 pm the GFS elevates the SWEAT to 431 which is reasonably high.  The SPC has us in the slight risk for severe thunderstorms as they feel there is not sufficient veering for tornadic activity for most of the day but the atmosphere would certainly support super cells that could produce large hail and wind.  I would say that if we were to get some super cells late and we have dynamics advertised briefly by the GFS then there could be support for tornadic activity as well.  Look, this is tough and it’s not clear cut.  The highest risk should be to our North but it’s worth paying attention to, especially in the afternoon and Thursday night.  If there is thunderstorm activity, I’d tune in to a local tv station to see if there is anything going on like a watch or something.  We may be dealing with scattered activity through the weekend but this Thursday to Friday timeframe is probably going to be the time of greatest risk.

Good Weather For Preakness 2010; Still Attendance Questions May 12, 2010

Click on Image For Official Preakness Site

In previous years, taking target practice with beers at guys running on port-o-cans was popular...not this year

The Preakness:  Last year I went to the Preakness and I  was looking forward to witnessing the infamous infield party that I had heard so much about.  I was told it was extremely wild. I had heard about port-o-can races in which people raced across the top of the portable bathrooms lined up in areas of the infield.  What I learned was that, not only did people race, but spectators routinely threw beer cans at the racers in a make-shift game of a shooting gallery.  When I got to the infield, it was very sparsely attended.  Apparently local officials felt that the infield, which was said to have reached numbers of 60,000, was too wild.  Last year, they disallowed attendees from bringing their own beer.  Infield tickets were priced at $50.  I thought that I saw a pack of cigarettes priced at $10.  One blogger claims that there were specials of $1 pints of beer available, but I tend to recall witnessesing something closer to the Washington Post’s  story that asserted beer was sold at $3.50 for a 16 oz beer.  They had concerts all during the races with some bands that I did not know.  There was a big stage with huge monitors pointed away from the main grandstands and away from the VIP tenst set up adjacent to the front stretch on the infield.  ZZ Top was the headliner in the afternoon.  I think I got the treat of seeing the “little old band from Texas” with about 200 other people.  Beyond the dearth of people, what else that was interesting was that how the grandstands could barely hear anything that was going out over the speakers.  Attendance was down 31%.  I believe that the number at Pimlico was about 77,000 whereas in 2008 the attendance number was about 112, 000.

Pimlico Officials are Hopeful that New Policies Will Make Last Year's Showing to be Just An Abberration

So, this year they are modifying the policy.  Infield goers still can’t bring their own beer, but the ticket price has been lowered to $40.  Also, the Washington DC NBC affiliate reports that revelers will be permitted to drink all the beer that they want after purchasing a mug for $20.   You can also bring in picnic lunches.  Sorry, no thermoses.  They are also going for bands that might be more attractive to younger patrons with the Maryland band O.A.R. as well as a country music entry, Grammy Award winners the Zac Brown Band.  The story ends with a Pimlico official as saying that ticket sales are outpacing last year.  That in itself shouldn’t be too difficult.  The real question is how much higher is the sales pace?  This blog claims that “Sanity reigns at the Preakness.”  The organizers hope that sanity still reigns on the infield because, in spite of the liberalized pricing policy, they still have rules at Pimlico.  Regardless of where you are at Pimlico to see if Calvin Borel can win the second leg of the Triple Crown, the weather will be outstanding.

SPC Severe Risk Thu AM to Fri AM well Northwest of Pimlico

Front Through Baltimore By Saturday Morning with High Pressure Building In

Preakness Stakes 2010 Weather Forecast for Pimlico:  The general pattern of disturbed weather is mainly for the Midwest and part of the Ohio Valley as there is a big trof that will be slowly moving west to east and little waves of energy will be ejecting from the Southern Plains to the Northeast.  As the trof moves East, the shower activity will move with it. However, the shortwave energy will not be rounding about as the mean trof approaches the Mid-Atlantic.  Hence, while scattered showers and t’storm will be possible for Thursday and Friday with Friday being the best chance for thunderstorms around the track, I see nothing in the data that suggest much of severe weather.  The main storm track will be well to the Northeast such that the risk for severe weather will be in the Ohio Valley and points North for Thursday into Thursday night. 

High Pressure Contnues to Build In Through Sunday Morning

The front eases through Baltimore on Saturday morning, probably before daybreak.  From that point forth, high pressure will be building in with drier air filtering in.  The NAM vertical profile suggests that in the early to mid afternoon there may be a relatively thin cloud deck at 5000 feet.  The GFS also has a layer of higher moisture at that level but does not indicate a solid deck.  Guess here is that it’s partly cloudy at best.  The high continues to build in throughout the day on Saturday from the Northwest.  I would think that there might be a breeze from the the North and then Northeast with relatively low humidity.  Preakness post time temperatures  will be running in the mid 70’s.  While there will be a risk for rain on Thursday and Friday, I see nothing that suggests anything overly excessive and the drying trend on Saturday I would think would result in a relatively fast track, certainly nothing like the mud that we saw at the Kentucky Derby.  Final hint:  Bet Big, Win Big.

BP Safety Record Won’t Help In Court of Public Opinion May 11, 2010

BP May Have Tough Time in Court of Public Opinion

BP holds the record for the largest fine ever levied by the  U.S. Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA).  It also holds second place as well.  BP holds an all-time record fine from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).  

Deepwater Horizon seconds before sinking

The tragic explosion of the BP Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico on April 20, 2010 resulted in the death of 11 people and it’s too soon to determine the total environmental and economic impact, both of which are certain to be extensive.  It’s probably too soon to be pointing fingers.  Drilling for and recovering oil and natural gas is a dangerous business.  On land, it’s dangerous but offshore, it’s one of the most dangerous jobs  in the world.  Accidents happen all the time but the industry as a whole tries extremely hard to reduce the risks to workers and also to the sites themselves.  Drilling at depths of water thousands of feet below the surface is frought with complications and challenges.  For that reason, it is far too soon to determine whether there was anything that BP could have done to prevent the incident from happening.    But, the accusations and investigations have begun even though the solution to the blowout problem has yet to be resolved. 

 A BP contract worker has made allegations recently of wrong doing by the UK oil giant and the United States Congress is sure to conduct investigations even though it’s probably too soon for anyone to draw conclusions.  But, make no mistake about it, BP is in big trouble.  At least one lawyer is already building a case by saying that BP is no stranger to disasters.  Newspapers have been reporting on BP’s long history of legal and ethical violations, but most newspapers don’t have the space to adequately address them all.  Below you will find a few from the past decade.  I”m not sure how this record fairs against that of other companies who struggle in the dangerous and tricky world of oil and gas exploration.  Transocean is the company from whom BP was leasing the rig and generally they, as the contractor,  would most likely be doing the actual work.  Nevertheless,  BP is the company that the media and public  knows and such a list of past allegations, fines and admitted transgressions will not help the case of BP in the court of public opinion.  I’m not sure if the public relations department will be able to handle it all. 

Jan 2010-BP announces $400 million upgrade of 60 yr-old equipment at refinery in Oregon, OH

On March 8, 2010  OSHA cited BP North American, Inc. for 42 violations at the BP-Husky refinery in Oregon, Ohio.  Among those allegations were 20 that the agency determined were serious safety concerns that put workers at risk of death or injury.  The fines proposed totaled over $3 million.  The findings stem from an investigation relating to a 2006 inspection of the refinery near Toledo and subsequent settlement with BP.  While BP was found to have complied with the terms of the settlement, an inspection in 2009 found new violations that were no addressed in the intial settlement.  In January 2010, BP announced $400 million in upgrades for 60-year-old equipment at the Oregon, Ohio refinery. 

BP Texas City refinery exploded in 2005 killing 15 and injuring 170

On October 30, 2009 OSHA proposed that BP be subject to the largest fine the the agency’s history.   The fine over over $87 million smashed the old record of $21 million.  That fine was also levied against BP following a 2005 explosion at a Texas City, Texas refinery.  The additional fine came after a subsequent follow-up investigation into the 2005 explosion of the company’s Texas City, Texas refinery that killed 15 and injured 170.  In the press release announcing the fines, Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis said in part, “When BP signed the OSHA settlement from the March 2005 explosion, it agreed to take comprehensive action to protect employees. Instead of living up to that commitment, BP has allowed hundreds of potential hazards to continue unabated.”  In January 2008, an investigation was begun looking into the third employee fatality at the BP Texas City facility in the time-frame following the 2005 explosion.  A report in 2007 suggested the budget cuts at BP in 1999 and 2004 resulted in safety and mainenance deficiencies at the plant that led directly to the tragic set of events. Later in 2005, another explosion rocked the same refinery.    

Former BP CEO Lord John Browne

The Houston Chronicle reported in 2007 that BP CEO John Browne got a raise in the year of the Texas City explosion and a bonus following allegations of an oil spill in Alaska resulting from corroded pipes and poor maintenance.   The 2007 Chronicle story relates to the resignation of Browne as CEO of BP after he admitted having a relationship with  a man.  Browne cited a desire to avoid an “unnecessary embarrassment and distraction” to the company.  

Edna and Wilf Human

In 2008, BP in the United Kingdom was found liable for damages in the death of a former worker.  The family of Wilf Human was scheduled to receive 47,000 British pounds as the inital part of the settlement with the rest to be determined at the end of that year.  Human worked at BP’s  Isle of Grain refinery and the proceedings found BP liable for the mesothelioma that killed the 22 year veteran of the plant.  The cause was found to be exposure to asbestos. 

BP Alaska 4800 barrel spill from corroded pipe

In October 2007, BP agreed to pay fines of $60 million imposed by EPA for violations stemming from the 2005 Texas City explosion as well as for environmental violations in Alaska.  According to the EPA, the fines totalling $50 million represent the largest criminal fine ever imposed on a corporation for violating the Clean Air Act.  An additional $12 million fine was slapped on the corporation for violating the Clean Water Act.  BP was accused of spilling 200,000 gallons (4800 barrels) of crude oil in 2006 onto the Alaska tundra and also on a frozen lake.  BP pled guilty to a felony charge of violating the Clean Air Act at the Texas City refinery and was given 3 year’s probation.  Probation is usually in lieu of jail time.  How you can put a company in jail is beyond me.  I suppose the CEO would be the one heading to the Big House if they violate the probation terms.  

Shell along with BP received most recent HSE Notices of Improvement relating to North Sea operations.

In 2007, the Britain’s Health and Safety Executive (HSE) issued 14 improvement notices to BP for issues at the company’s North Sea operations that potentially could put workers’ safety at risk.  Seven of the notices related to a single compnay facility.  The oil company was ordered to make necessary repairs and changes to make certain that it complied with the law.  Union officials said the problems were “very very serious” and came just 18 months following a fire on a BP floating production platform that required the evacuation of all non-essential personnel.  The HSE said it was taking the action “because of the extent of backlogs in preventative and breakdown maintenance of plant, structures and fabric of the installation” and that “It doesn’t appear as though BP is operating the installation in a way that would ensure safety risks have been controlled as low as is reasonably practicable, which is what the law requires.”  Two weeks ago, BP and Shell received notices of improvement from HSE related to their North Sea operations. 

Alaska is an extremely difficult and dangerous place for oil operations

In late 2002, a worker was killed and two injured in an accident at BP Exploration Alaska’s North Slope.  The incident occured as workers repaired a pipeline that, for unknown reasons, remained pressurized while the maintenance work took place.  Just a few months before, another incident relating to pressure build up at a natural gas well resulted in the injury of another worker.  The two incidents were unrelated and in different parts of the field.  The natural gas incident occured following a rupture below ground.  To be fair, these two incidents were probably more related to the inherent dangers associated with working in the oil patch.  But, in 2006 a report referred to the “history of substandard environmental performance” by BP in Alaska. 

SPC Ohio Valley out of the Severe Risk for Today

SPC Gusty winds possible with late night storms

Weather Bottom Line:  Yesterday I related how the SPC had us in a slight risk for severe weather for Tuesday through Wednesday morning and how they mentioned the afternoon but not the overnight.  I had noted that because it was the GFS that produced far more interesting data for late Tuesday night than it did for Tuesday afternoon.  The NAM was stronger for the afternoon but the numbers were not all that impressive.  Well, the SPC severe outlook for May 11, 2010 has shifted somewhat.  The area of the slight risk is in the plains with the Ohio Valley falling under the dreaded “see text” section.  They suggest a small risk below “slight” parameters for our area regarding strong winds and hail.  I suspect that the scenario that they are looking at is a cold frontal boundary being slowed somewhat as a shortwave moves into the Central Rockies.  Hence, any storms that run up the front into our area will be getting here late and should be on the dying side.  So, the rougher weather is out to our west and we get stuck with the leftovers.   Either way, hold on to your hats; it’s going to be windy today. 

SPC Thu AM to Fri AM next best chance for Severe Weather in Ohio Valley

I also mentioned yesterday that this would be a challenging week and that remains the case.  The trouble is that the big parent storm out west is slow to come out and it will be tossing out pieces of energy on an intermittent basis. It’s extremely difficult to say with much certainty what the timing or course of those impulses.  At this point, the SPC feels as if the Thu to Fri timeframe will be our next best chance for severe conditions.  Until then, we will be decidedly warmer and more humid than recent days as the warm front came through Tuesday morning bringing the expected light showers.  The Tuesday night cold front will get close but will retreat relatively rapidly.  Aside from the severe risk in somewhat of a flux, there should be a risk for scattered showers and t’storms each afternoon through Friday.

1st Female Pres. Candidate Victoria Woodhull Advocated “Free Love” May 10, 2010

Victoria Woodhull's Legacy?

On This Date In History: This obviously wasn’t Mother’s Day because it wasn’t officially established until 1914. But, this woman was seen by many as the antithesis of motherhood. On this date in 1872 Victoria Woodhull began her campaign for President. Her running mate was abolitionist, former slave and intellectual Frederick Douglass.    At that time, women weren’t even allowed to vote yet, she was running for president. Her platform was as a “free-thinking reformer” and supported free love, abortion, divorce, legalized prostitution and, of course, the women’s right to vote. One of the photos above is a portrait while the other is a cartoon showing her as the Devil. As part of her campaign, she sent out an article congratulating preacher Henry Ward Beecher for having an affair with a married woman in his congregation. But, she chastised him for not advocating the free love that she said he obviously practiced. On election day, she was in jail. The charge was for sending obscene material through the mail in violation of the Comstock Act. The offensive material was the Beecher article. Reports of her personal practices of free love did not help her at the polls. An opponent of hers didn’t learn from her mistake.

Woodhull Covorting With Satan!

Also on the ballot was George Francis Train who ran for President as the self proclaimed “Champion Crank of America.”   He was a millionaire with nothing else to do except to try and break speed records and advocate what he saw as struggles for freedom. Jules Verne is said to have based his novel Around the World In 80 Days on a trip that Train once took. But, Train didn’t count the days he spent in prison in France against his 80 days. He got involved in an attempted revolution and barely escaped a firing squad before he continued his global journey. He later beat his own record by going around the world in 67 1/2 days. No word on if he cheated on that one too.   Neither he nor Woodhull were elected President. In fact, I bet you won’t find them on any 1872 election tally boards.

George Francis Train

But, Train had a penchant for making money because his campaign proved to be a money making venture for him. He charged money for people to hear his speeches and he spoke over 1000 times to more than 2,000,000 people. He may have been the only presidential candidate to make a profit in the venture.  When Woodhull got in trouble, he tried to help her cause by publishing a collection of biblical quotations that he said were much more obscene than anything Woodhull had written.  They slapped the old bracelets on him too and he was whisked off to jail.

Victoria Woodhull and Tennessee Claflin drive the bulls and bears on Wall Street, Evening Telegram, February 18, 1870

Here’s a funny thing about this story. The Equal Rights party platform  was generally that of Ms. Woodhull.  If you care to search you can find numerous links that unravel the whole thing, but rest assured,   it was quite scandalous in 1872.  While it did not specify abortion and divorce, I suppose that Ms. Woodhull extracted that from the calls for protection of women from abuses of men and other forms of what they called equality.  This document supports the contention and inference of the concept of “free love,” divorce and abortion rights.  (note how it says “Children come into this world undesired and unprovided for…”)  It is interesting that they were vehemently against the death penalty but favored abortion.  Anyway, the specifics outlined regarding the platform talk about taxing the rich, a graduated tax, term limits for the President, Vice-President and Senators and the issuing of paper currency.  They also were against any land grants to railroads and thought that disagreements among nations should be settled by a “congress of nations” instead of armed conflict.   

Woodhull for President!

Today, we have a currency backed by the “full faith and credit of the United States,”  the United Nations and a graduated tax scale.  There are increasing calls to tax the rich and movements to try and limit governmental aid to corporations.  Divorce is certainly a part of society and prostitution is legal in parts of Nevada.  The US Supreme Court issued its famous (or infamous) Roe V Wade decision in 1973.  The platform actually went further as it wished to have government regulation of labor and also referred to children and the poor to be seen as “wards of the state” with the government taking responsibility for their care and eduction.  I bet that if you told someone in 1872 that many of the calls of Victoria Woodhull would be legal and/or accepted in 2010, they’d probably fall over. Then again, they’d probably also collapse if you told them that man had walked on the moon, cured any number of diseases and that baseball players were making millions of dollars a year.  I’ve heard a saying that illustrates an aspect of human nature: The people of Venice did nothing about the flooding problem until sewage was coming in their homes.  Perhaps the roots of the Tea Party movement were set long ago.

By the way….US Grant won re-election in the 1872 presidential race.

(Edit: You will find a somewhat militant sounding response below from someone who claims absolutely that it is false that Ms. Woodhull was in favor of abortion.  My source said otherwise without explanation.  The commenter left several quotes from Ms. Woodhull that seems to support the view.  I have examined the quotations and it does appear that Ms. Woodhull believed that abortion was murder.  However, the commenter has left out some key quotes.  For instance from Woodhull’s and Claffin’s Weekly (September 23, 1871: ” Abortion is only a symptom of a more deep-seated disorder of the social state. It cannot be put down by law.”  Also, from the same edition:  “Who proposes to disturb Madame Restel [underground abortion practitioner]? Who really wants that there should be no opportunity to secure an abortion under peculiarly trying circumstances?”  The stance seems a bit at odds with her “abortion is murder” contention.  But, from my analysis, Ms. Woodhull makes the argument that she wished to eradicate the situation caused women to want to have an abortion.  She blaimed the male dominated societal atmosphere.  In the same Sept. 23, 1871 article she concluded that, “Nearly every child born is an unwelcome guest. Abortion is the choice of evils for such women.”  She seemed to be saying the pregnancy was more often than not forced on women and therefore it was unpleasant and left them with a very difficult ordeal.  So, while the commenter is correct that she thought abortion was murder, it does not appear that she wished to make it illegal.  I attempted to contact the commenter by email but the person declined to reply.  She made some comment that the statement of her support for abortion was “utterly false” and then added a link to “someone who has actually done their homework.”  It is feministforlife.org.  When researching history, it is important to note exactly who is doing the research as they may have an agenda.  Often, when one has a point of view that they wish to push on any given subject, they may play up some positions and low key others to such an extent that they omit anything that may detract from the thesis.  I went to the primary source and I believe that my secondary source was justified in the position that Woodhull was in favor of abortion in the sense that she did not want to criminalize it.  There is no getting around the fact though, that on a number of occasions, she did equate it to murder.  BTW…the commentor also failed to point out that Ms. Woodhull’s publication was the first in the US to publish Karl Marx’s Communist Manifesto in 1872.  My guess is that little fact may sway a reader’s sympathies, eh?   Nor  was it pointed out that Woodhull later married a rich UK Banker, John B. Martin, after which she apparently disavowed her previous position on free love, though I’m not sure if that included an alteration of her abortion view.    See…the truth is not always the whole truth. If you want more details, you need to secure a complete historiography; not just this blog, websites or single sources. 

SPC Severe Risk Tuesday AM to Wednesday AM

SPC Severe Probability Tuesday AM to Wed. AM

Weather Bottom Line:  This week will prove quite a challenge.  First off there will a warm front coming back through our area.  The NAM wants to bring some showers around here by midnight and then cuts it off by day break but then reintroduces showers late morning.  The RUC has rain from midnight to 5AM but the data ends there.  The GFS brings rain by about 3 AM and then carries it through the morning.  None of of the models advertises a rain total of much significance.  Now, I don’t see that the NAM severe parameters really going bananas while it calls for rain late Tuesday into Wednesday but the energy fields do rise markedly, which makes sense because the warm front comes through.  Early Wednesday morning, the dynamic fields start getting into the interesting territory.  Now, the GFS is similiar except that it has rain along with the rising dyanmic parameters late Tuesday into early Wednesday.  After that, the models both bring rain at varying times.

Tuesday Evening

The issue down the line will be periodic bits of energy being tossed out through the flow throughout the week.  That is what is prompting week-long forecasts having a chance of rain every day.  The truth is, no one can really time the impulses nor the exact route; so put in a chance of rain to CYA.  It is probable for rain as the warm front comes through on Tuesday.  The SPC has varying reasons for concern regarding strong storms on Tuesday so they put in a slight risk for our area but it doesn’t really have anything to hang your hat on conclusively except that a cold front is approachin.  The SPC does not mention late night Tuesday night but the GFS data supports that possibility as the cold front approaches, perhaps a shade behind the NAM. Either way, the slight risk area goes from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning so the GFS solution is still covered.  If the cold front does come through, it won’t be for long as it will retreat rapidly back to the north in advance of another system coming through the flow.

Bottom line is that we get warmer and more humid by Tuesday afternoon through Friday at least with rain chances popping up now and then.  We’ll have to see how the severe potential actually shakes out.