For a more recent update on Typhoon Melor as it makes landfall in Japan and Parma still in the Philippines, CLICK HERE
The tropical storm formally known as Typhoon Parma has followed the general track that I outlined several days ago. The satellite image above shows that the storm still has a very impressive structure considering that it has spent much time of cooling, upwelling waters and has not been completely over the water for some time. The satellite water vapor image and loop is not overly impressive as the storm center is now over land in the Luzon province of the Philippines. This recent news report says its not over the Philippines and won’t make landfall, but the satellite says otherwise. So far, Parma has taken 22 Filipino lives. A ship sank in the rough South China Sea, courtesy of Parma You can detect some convection that shows up a little better on the Infrared color satellite image above.
Parma has reacted as I suggested that it might a few days ago and as the GFS model has been consistently suggesting over time. The NOGAPS also came around to that way of thinking but the official forecast from the JTWC did not reflect this potential in its official forecast until this morning, though they did make mention of it in their discussion. While Parma is located over the Philippines, the threat of heavy rains will persist. Parma dropped very heavy rain in the southern portions of Taiwan and the mountainous regions of the Philippines will be under the threat of landslides until the storm gets picked up by an expanding ridge in China which will take the storm to the west back into the South China Sea. A note for those of you in Southeast Asia: The Joint Typhoon Warning Center discussion below indicates that the environment in the South China Sea will be conducive to re-intensification as Parma moves westward toward mainland Asia.
WDPN33 PGTW 061500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA)// WARNING NR 36// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA) HAS MAINTAINED A STRONG CON- VECTIVE SIGNATURE CHARACTERIZED BY MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF LUZON OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TS PARMA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A BREAK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT PARMA'S RECENT SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO SOME INTERACTION WITH TYPHOON MELOR, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND KNES AND THE CURRENT POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY THE 060935Z WINDSAT IMAGE, WHICH CAPTURED THE SYSTEM JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. 3. FORECAST REASONING A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. AS TYPHOON MELOR CRESTS ITS SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND TRACKS TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES, TS PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF LUZON. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE SOME ENERGY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. C. BEYOND TAU 48, TS PARMA WILL START TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CHINA WHICH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD. AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE BECOMES MORE DEFINED BY TAU 72, PARMA WILL START TO PICK UP TRACK SPEED THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND RE-INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS GENERALLY AGREE WITH AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE WEST, THOUGH THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THIS TURN VARIES WIDELY AS PARMA CURRENTLY SITS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST LEANS ON THE EGRR TRACKER PROVIDED BY THE UKMO AND THE EXTENDED-RANGE FORECASTS PROVIDED BY THE ECMWF.// NNNN
Typhoon Melor continues to progress as forecast. The slight interaction with Parma that caused Parma to slide farther south and southeast back to the Philippines resulted in a slight northwestward hitch in the path of Melor as it moved across the northwestern Philippines Sea. The result of this is that the curving of motion took place farther west than earlier anticipated and the northeastward track has now set the stage for the Typhoon to run up the largest Japanese Island of Honshu and eventually close to Tokyo. However, as the storm rounds the edge of the ridge of high pressure that is steering it, Melor starts to get sheered by unfavorable upper level winds. The latest satellite imagery indicates this deterioration has already begun. As it accelerates northeast, it will encounter land after landfall south of Kyoto, Japan and continue to interact with the Japanese mainland and come into a hostile environment as it begins to transition into an extra-tropical cyclone. The fact that it will be going through a deterioration stage will mean only minimal typhoon strength winds as it goes across Japan and the fact that it will be increasing in forward speed will limit its rainfall potential. Nevertheless, the Japanesese topography should enhance the rainfall potential, particularly on the eastern slopes of the mountains and so heavy rain is likely only the eastern third of Japan.
WDPN34 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 30//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR) HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS THOUGH RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO ERODE IN THE
NORTHWESTWERN QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AS TY MELOR IS CRESTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON DIVORAK FIXES
BY PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. IN ADDITION, THE SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE
WAS 113 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY MELOR WILL CREST THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL START TO ACCELERATE
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS, TY MELOR WILL START TO ENCOUNTER MORE UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF KYOTO, JAPAN.
ADDITIONALLY, MELOR WILL START TO ENGAGE WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AROUND TAU 24 AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48.
THE MODEL AIDS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A LANDFALL SCENARIO WEST
OF TOKYO, JAPAN. HOWEVER, THE UKMO TRACKER, EGGR, IS THE EASTERN
OUTLIER AS IT TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVER TOKYO, JAPAN. THIS FORECAST DOES
NOT TAKE MELOR AS FAR EAST AS THE EGRR TRACKER, THOUGH IT DOES TRACK
CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS.//