Parma Forecast Track Dangerously Close to the Philippines; Melor Has Sight on Tokyo


W Pacific color IR 2330Z 10.05.09 (click image for loop)

W Pacific color IR 2330Z 10.05.09 (click image for loop)

for a more recent update on Parma (pepeng) and Typhoon Melor, CLICK HERE

Parma Forecast Track JTWC

Parma Forecast Track JTWC

The former Typhoon Parma forecast track (JTWC discussion below) is getting uncomfortably close to Luzon in the Philippines.  Basically what is happening is that the powerful Super Typhoon Melor (JTWC discussion below) is racing west-northwestward across the Philippines Sea and its substantial flow is taking the drifting Tropical Storm Parma back south from the same direction that it came.   Melor is being affected a little by this binary interaction with Parma and is now forecast to move a little more northwest prior to its shift in direction.  Typhoon Melor gets caught up in a strong southwesterly flow and it shoots to the northeast and begins to get sheared in the process.  That would weaken Melor as it moves up along the western coast of Japan, though the most recent forecast tracks have been consistently running the storm either across Tokyo Bay or just at the entrance to Tokyo Bay.  However, this latest forecast track has the storm swinging farther west(due to Parma) and therefore the northeastern track has Melor streaking inland over the top of Tokyo itself.  It  remains to be seen if that track comes about but Melor is expected to be a minimum typhoon at that time.   I suspect since it had been so formidable and because of its forward momentum, it will probably have a higher storm surge than what might normally be expected with a weakening typhoon that is transitioning to extra-tropical status.  On the other hand, its quick pace would also mean that the threat for extreme rainfall in Japan may be reduced.

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track JTWC

Typhoon Melor Forecast Track JTWC

As for Parma, the forecast suggests that the storm does not strengthen as it moves back south or south-southeast because its moving very slowly back over water that is already been churned up.  That would mean that essentially the warm water on the surface has been blown around and cooler water from below has come up to take its place. Its called upwelling and is why a tropical cyclone needs to stay on the move if its going to survive.    Nevertheless, the issue with the Philippines and particularly the area around Manila, is rainfall and just because  the intensity decreases doesn’t mean that heavy rains are not possible.  Remember, Ketsana was just a tropical storm and flooding from it killed nearly 300 people and some 200 more in Southeast Asia.  Now the boys at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center do kick the storm out to the west before it comes back across the Philippines but it may be close enough to cause problems.  In the meantime, the forecast calls for an increase in intensity as it kicks west and that could mean problems down the road for the same parts of Southeast Asia, namely Vietnam, that also had trouble with Ketsana.

Mon 18Z NOGAPS valid 00Z Wed

Mon 18Z NOGAPS valid 00Z Wed

Mon 12Z GFS valid 00Z Wed

Mon 12Z GFS valid 00Z Wed

Here is what is troubling.  I only have access to the 12Z run of the GFS and the 18Z run of the NOGAPS.  Previously, it was the GFS that kept on wanting to take Parma back over the Philippines, most notably right over Manila.  Now, Parma is kinda stuck between a ridge to the west and ridge to the east.  Its got nothing to steer it except the little bit of influence south by Melor.  The thinking is that the ridge to the west will be dominant and take Parma west.  The Joint Typhoon Warning Center seems to be discounting the GFS and NOGAPS as indicated by this sentence in their discussion:  “The available numeric guidance are in wide disagreement with the GFS and NOGAPS attempting an eventual turn to the Northeast and the European and EGRR and ECMWF favoring and eventual westerly track into the South China Sea.”  My concern is that the GFS has been consistent in wanting to bring the storm back over the Philippines one way or another. 

Mon 18Z NOGAPS valid 00Z Thu

Mon 18Z NOGAPS valid 00Z Thu

Mon 12Z GFS valid 00z Thu

Mon 12Z GFS valid 00z Thu

Now, the NOGAPS has jumped on board with that thinking, at least for this model run.  This storm has been exteremly difficult to track due to so many variable influences and the fact that its kinda gotten stuck in no man’s land without strong steering guidance.  In my view, it is still beyond human capabilities to make any definitive statement concerning the ultimate fate in relation to Parma.  I think its safe to say that rain will continue to fall over Luzon, whether or not its intense heavy rain over an extended period of time remains to be seen and we’ll just have to wait and see whether the influence of Melor will be sufficient to run the storm all the way back to the Philippines or if the ridge to the west will nose in strong enough and fast enough to take it away.  Either way, it remains to be seen whether, given the proximity of the storm to the Philippines in any scenario and that it currently has decent upper level venting to allow for development of convection, if the storms move over the islands in the counter-clockwise flow cause more flooding problems.  The government of the Philippines seem to be better prepared and seems to be ready for any eventuality. 

WDPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING
NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN BEGUN TO FLARE OVER THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA). STRONG VENTING TO
THE NORTHEAST HAS HELPED THE SYSTEM RECUPERATE SOME OF ITS
DEEP CONVECTION LOST NEARLY 24 HOURS AGO FROM THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR GRADIENT IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. THE
STORM HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND REMAINS
IN THE LUZON STRAIT.
3.   FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED BEYOND TAU 72 IN ORDER TO
REFLECT DECREASED CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT
THIS QUASISTATIONARY STATE BEFORE DAY 5. AS IS TYPICAL IN A
WEAK OR AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE MODEL TRACKERS
ARE HANDLING THE SITUATION POORLY.
    B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OFF THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF LUZON FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THERE ARE STILL SOME
INDICATIONS AMONG THE MODEL FIELDS THAT THE STORM WILL
EVENTUALLY PULL OUT TO THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES OVER SOUTHERN CHINA, BUT
AGAIN, THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY. INTENSIFICATION IS NOT
LIKELY BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND UPWELLING OF COOL, SUB-SURFACE WATER. HOWEVER,
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MENTIONED IN PARA 2.A. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A QUASI-
STATIONARY STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A SOUTHERLY DRIFT.
    C. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY AT DAY 4 AND
BEYOND, FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DECREASED OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT FROM UPWELLING. INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASED
IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD TO REFLECT THE INCREASED LIKLIHOOD
OF THIS SCENARIO. //

WDPN34 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (MELOR) IS CURRENTLY A 135 KNOT
SYSTEM,BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FINAL-T (6.0) AND
CURRENT INTENSITY (7.0) FROM THE PGTW DVORAK FIX. THE SYSTEM
HAS TRACKED FROM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 050600Z TO NORTHWESTWARD
AT 051200Z AND HAS SLOWED BY 2 KNOTS. THE DECREASED TRACK SPEED
AND INCREASED NORTHWARD TURN ARE BOTH PRECURSORS TO RECURVATURE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NEAR THE CAROLINE ISLANDS IN MICRONESIA
HAS BEGUN TO ENCROACH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT, FAVORABLE VENTING INTO THIS FEATURE HAS CEASED.
UNRELATED, THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS GROWN CONSIDERABLY,
AND THE EYE IS AT ITS LARGEST DIAMETER YET (32NM). MORE
RECENTLY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED TO
THE NORTHWEST AS THE STY NEARS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
EAST COAST OF ASIA.
3. FORECAST REASONING
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. STY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BEFORE ENCOUNTERING
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NEAR OKINAWA. THE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED TO VENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AND MAY ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, SHORTLY THEREAFTER, THE TYPHOON WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
DUE TO EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL ALSO ERODE THE
STEERING RIDGE AND INITIATE RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.
INTERACTION WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY (NEAR 30N) WILL
PROMPT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, JUST TO THE SOUTH OF TOKYO.
THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
CALLS FOR PASSAGE OF MELOR AS A TRANSITIONING CYCLONE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF JAPAN. THE TYPHOON WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY
TAU 72.//

6 Responses

  1. Where’s the date, or did i just missed it?

  2. Anderson:
    Um menino que já age como homem, e com sua simplicidade consegue cativar as pessoas somente sendo o que é, sem precisar fingir ser outro alguém.
    Sua capacidade de superar as dificuldades e lutar sempre pelo que quer é impressionante, e de dar inveja a muitos.
    Apesar de ser as vezes cabeça dura, tem a humildade de se estiver errado admitir e se desculpar.
    Não gosta de ver ninguém chorar, e quando está triste ou angustiado não quer passar esse sentimento para os outros, tendo que ter uma alma tão forte como a dele para poder suportar todo o sofrimento.
    Apesar de ser forte, quando a força acabar, sempre me terá para se reerguer.
    Não é de nenhum espanto que as pessoas queiram estar perto dele, pois com uma pessoa tão amiga quanto ele, você pode confiar de olhos fechados.
    Ela é a inspiração de meus poemas,
    E o amor da poetisa.

  3. hold on tight

  4. If you can read portuguese, Anderson’s poem is very thought provoking.

  5. Date for what? The models are clearly marked as either 18Z Wed or 18Z Thu and if you click on the forecast tracking charts, you can see clearly where each storm is forecast to be at 6 hour intervals. When you click on the map, you get the most recent forecast from the JTWC If you click on the satellite image you can see exactly where each storm is visually with the most recent loops.

  6. hmmm watch out philipine… get prepare for tornado. But not only in philipine , when earth still around everything could be happen

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