Today is has examples of how the best of intentions can go terribly wrong. Typically, in these cases it’s a result of individuals or groups not thinking beyond their own agenda or project. The first is in the United States and involves 47-year-old Philip Arnold Paul. He was committed to a mental hospital following his acquittal on murder charges for reason of insanity. Paul was accused of killing an elderly woman and then covering her corpse in gasoline before burying her in her own garden. He was attempting to throw search dogs off the scent. So, according to an AP report, Paul disappeared from the Spokane County Fair and is now at large. Now, what was a killer who was committed to a mental hospital following a murder doing at the Spokane County Fair? Why, it was part of a program that allows mental patients to go on field trips, to places like the county fair, that has families and children running around having a good time, not generally on the lookout for insane killers. Even if they were looking for maniacs running around, they wouldn’t be likely to spot them. See, part of the program allows for the patients to wear civilian clothes. Wouldn’t want anyone in the general public to know that killers turned mental patients were in their midst. And here’s the real kicker to the story…Paul had escaped before. So, someone thought it was a great idea to have a killer in a mental institution with a history of escape attempts to be on a field trip at the county fair.
On the international front, for years fighting has gone on in a very unstable Somalia. For many stretches, there really has been no government to speak of in the impoverished country and its questionable if there has ever been an effective government for any amount of time. This is the country that gave us “Black Hawk Down” and more recently is the home to the Pirates who have been capturing large ships off their coast and holding them for ransom. So, the United Nations has deployed a peace keeping force. They’ve been so effective that since 2007 that over 18,000 people have been killed and some 1.5 million have been left homeless. With a track record of peace keeping like that, who needs warlords? Now, to be fair, it is a very very difficult situation with a relatively weak central government and pretty strong forces of Islamic rebels and free-wheeling war lords controlling part of the population and regions.
But, this is almost a case of keystone cops. It seems that the UN can’t keep up with their vehicles. Several have been stolen and now Reuters is reporting that the United Nations is investigating reports that UN vehicles have been used in suicide bombings that have killed of their own peacekeepers. So, the UN loses its trucks, the trucks are used in suicide bombings that kill UN peace keepers and now the UN is going to investigate. I’m sure we can expect an honest report. After all, this is the same group that ran the oil for food program that was found to be a multi-billion dollar fraud and perhaps an outlying cause of the Iraq war. It just makes sense that the world should trust that organization to investigate itself and then oversee an international carbon tax effort to curb global warming.
Weather Bottom Line: Everything is on schedule with an area of low pressure ejecting from the southwest toward the Ohio Valley. Saturday night into Sunday the system approaches and rain chances go through the roof. There is a potential for heavy rain through Sunday with a potential for up to two inches of rain, particularly in the western part of the viewing area. While there will be a number of thunderstorms in the area, the boys at the SPC only give it a 5% probability that anyone will get a severe storm. But, the potential is there. However, the severe weather parameters for the GFS and NAM 12z model runs aren’t all that impressive. Nothing really jumps out huge. The most interesting thing about the two models is the rain totals. The NAM puts out just under two inches of rain from late Saturday night through Monday afternoon. It then adds less than a half inch over the next 36 hours. The GFS just goes bonkers with over 2 inches of rain from 4am Sunday to 10am Sunday. Then it keeps the rain coming making for a total of around 3.5 inches through Monday afternoon. The GFS is curious in that it keeps us dry for much of the week after that. While rain chances will be the highest for Sunday into Monday, it probably would not be wise for a forecaster to keep it without rain chances for much of the week as a big fat trof will be stuck in the midwest and I would think an consistent flow with a southerly flow ahead of the front side of the trof would be sufficient to provide some instability if not move an errant upper level disturbance.
…OH AND TN VALLEYS…
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL
AND ERN STATES. A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND NEGATIVLEY TILTED
SECTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY SEWD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WITH STORM COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
DESTABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH…VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE
REGION APPEAR ON THE LOW-SIDE FOR SEVERE STORMS…BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ASSOCAIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET FROM NE MS NWD INTO IND AND OH
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT