Southern California Suffers from Wildfires, Baja California Set for Major Hurricane Jimena


This Could Very Well Be the Canyon Next to our Old House

This Could Very Well Be the Canyon Next to our Old House

The Smoke and Ash from a Brush Fire is more than you can imagine

The Smoke and Ash from a Brush Fire is more than you can imagine

For an update on the wildfires and Hurricane Jimena, CLICK HERE

California Wildfires: Here is a Gallery of Photos.   In the Ohio Valley, we’ve had a pretty cool summer.  July had zero days of 90 degree temperatures for the first time in recorded history.  For the next few days, we’ll have highs in just the low to mid 70’s.  Its because there has been a general trofiness in the long wave pattern.  This pattern has contributed to such things as Hurricane Bill and Tropical Storm Danny going off the east coast toward Canada when that sort of thing is more common in October.  The other thing is that while there has been a general trof in the east, there has been a general ridge in the west, which means the other half of the country has been hotter than average and in several areas, drier than normal.  There is a big drought in Central Texas and it is quite dry  in California, which is a recipe for wildfires in an area that is typically pretty dry all by itself.  So, fires are raging near Los Angeles near my boyhood home in La Canada.  Here is an interactive map with links for fire information.  When I was a kid, La Canada was all by itself but now it more commonly called La Canada-La Crescenta-Flintridge because all of those communities have kinda run into each other.  Anyway, our old neighbors have evacuated and the area is under seige as our house backed up to the Angeles National Forest where it appears that this fire originated.  To give you an idea of how dry it is…at 8PM EDT a nearby reporting station had 9% humidity.   It is called the Station Fire.   There are many other fires though and  here is a link to wildfire incidents in California.   Governer Schwarzenegger has toured the area and issued decrees of warning. It  would be a good idea to heed calls to evacuate.

Hurricane Jimena Visible Satellte 21Z 083009

Hurricane Jimena Visible Satellte 21Z 083009

Hurricane Jimena Infrared Rainbow Image 21Z 083009

Hurricane Jimena Infrared Rainbow Image 21Z 083009

Meanwhile, Baja California is bracing for a hit from a major hurricane.  Hurricane Jimena.  It’s not totally uncommon for a storm to move due north in the Pacific but its not a typical track.  Once it veers off to the west, it will encounter some pretty cold water from the California Stream that originates in Alaska…that is why surfers often wear wetsuits on the west coast.  The water is some 20 degrees colder than say, the Gulf of Mexico this time of year.  Anyway, what will be interesting to see if some of the moisture from the hurricane will make its way far enough into California to aid in the fire fighting efforts.  Probably not a whole lot of help but even a little will be of use.

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009

Hurricane Jimena Forecast Track 2PM PDT 083009

Hurricane Jimena Forecast Track 2PM PDT 083009

JIMENA CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A QUITE
SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ON INFRARED IMAGES…THE EYE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT…SUGGESTIVE OF ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT T 6.0 FROM
BOTH AGENCIES BUT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS SUPPORT A STRONGER HURRICANE
…PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THE WARMER EYE. THEREFORE THE NHC INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS BOOSTED TO 120 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE WARM WATERS…LIGHT SHEAR…AND
MOIST TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER…THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS COULD ALSO
BE HALTED AT ANY TIME BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH. BEGINNING AROUND 48 HOURS…THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW NEAR JIMENA. THE
RESULTING INCREASE IN SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A WEAKENING
TREND…AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALSO BEYOND
48 HOURS…THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON HOW MUCH IT INTERACTS WITH LAND.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES…TYPICAL OF THE MOVEMENT OF
INTENSE HURRICANES…BUT THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
ABOUT 295/07. THE FUTURE TRACK OF JIMENA SEEMS TO DEPEND LARGELY
UPON THE EVOLUTION OF TWO MAIN FACTORS…A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. IF THE
LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD AND WEAKENS…IT WOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD
WESTWARD AND COULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO VEER WESTWARD AWAY FROM BAJA.
THAT APPEARS TO BE THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER…THOSE MODELS ARE THE WESTERN
OUTLIERS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS
THE GFS…THE HWRF…AND THE GFDL INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE
HURRICANE…SO THAT JIMENA WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TOWARD THE
RIGHT…AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER BAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
TRACKS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/2100Z 16.6N 106.8W   120 KT
12HR VT     31/0600Z 17.3N 107.7W   125 KT
24HR VT     31/1800Z 18.7N 108.7W   125 KT
36HR VT     01/0600Z 20.6N 110.0W   125 KT
48HR VT     01/1800Z 22.6N 110.8W   115 KT
72HR VT     02/1800Z 26.5N 112.5W    75 KT…INLAND
96HR VT     03/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W    50 KT…INLAND
120HR VT     04/1800Z 28.5N 115.0W    25 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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