Pink Sand From Hurricane Bill; Spaghetti Models Better Days Have Passed


Hurricane Bill 1415Z Aug 22

Hurricane Bill 1415Z Aug 22

For a more recent update on Hurricane Bill, CLICK HERE

Hurricane Bill passed by Bermuda and forced President and Secretary of State Clinton to end their Bermuda vacation early.  Bill was chased away by Bill.   Hurricane Bill tossed pink sand on the beaches of Bermuda

NHC official Hurricane Bill Fcst Track 8am Aug 22

NHC official Hurricane Bill Fcst Track 8am Aug 22Hurricane Bill Spaghetti Model 12Z 08.22.09

Bill Spaghetti Model Intensity 12Z 08.22.09

Bill Spaghetti Model Intensity 12Z 08.22.09

Hurricane Bill Water Vapor Image 1415Z 08.22.09

Hurricane Bill Water Vapor Image 1415Z 08.22.09

I gotta say that Bill was looking pretty ragged late Friday.  The circulation and outflow had been displaced somewhat to the north and northeast for several days in response to light southwesterly winds.  But as they increased, it was even more non-circular on Friday.   It was going through an eyewall replacement cycle and the conventional wisdom was that it might be able to ramp up some today in one last hurrah before it went to die.  Well, there is no evidence of that, though the satellite image in some regards looks better than it did…more circular..but there is no eye.  I almost looks like its trying  lose its tropical characteristics already.  So, I would be of the mind that it has seen its better days and is in the beginning stages of losing its tropical characteristics and getting really messed up.  From this point forth, the shearing winds will do nothing but  increase and the water temperatures will do nothing but decrease.  

Hurricane Bill Visible Satellite Image 1415Z 08.22.09

Hurricane Bill Visible Satellite Image 1415Z 08.22.09

In looking at the water vapor imagery, you see very dry air to the south of Bill and I wonder if that dry air doesn’t end up getting drawn into the storm, which would serve as a pitchfork if it got into the center.  The official track does not advertise a landfall, instead having it move more or less parallel to the Canadian Maritime coast.  But, if I were in Halifax or really anywhere on coastal Nova Scotia, I would evacuate.  The storm surge will still be significant.  Two interesting things are that it will be moving very fast so I could create a scenario in which the water rises very rapidly prior to the storm passing south of the coast and then it rushing out quickly as it passes with the backside winds shoving the water back out to sea.  The other is its ultimate fate.  The general storm track takes it toward Scotland, which would be interesting in itself.  But, if that ridge in the Atlantic is not established that far east, I”m wondering if it might not move more southeast eventually and go toward Spain and Portugal.  Speculation, but  interesting nonetheless.

Sea Surface Temps (SST) 12Z 08.21.09

Sea Surface Temps (SST) 12Z 08.21.09

WTNT43 KNHC 221442
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BILL HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THE T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 85 KNOTS AND THIS VALUE COULD
BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK BILL THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL GIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. BILL
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH TODAY BUT WITH COLD WATERS
AHEAD…A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS…THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AND BY 72 HOURS
BILL SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. BILL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS
ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH
AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FORCE BILL TO RECURVE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY
PACKED…THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS BILL TO THE WATERS JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
IN 24 HOURS. THEREFORE…ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR EASTERN REGIONS OF CANADA.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND…CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/1500Z 35.1N  68.6W    85 KT
12HR VT     23/0000Z 38.0N  68.5W    85 KT
24HR VT     23/1200Z 42.5N  65.5W    75 KT
36HR VT     24/0000Z 46.0N  59.0W    65 KT
48HR VT     24/1200Z 49.5N  49.4W    50 KT…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     25/1200Z 52.0N  24.0W    40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT     26/1200Z 58.0N   9.0W    30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     27/1200Z 63.0N   5.0W    20 KT…EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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