On This Date in History:
We’ve got the health care debate going on and people are complaining that one side or the other may have an organized or orchestrated effort. The proper response may be , “so what?” The Sons of Liberty was an orchestrated movement against the crown. The Civil Rights movement was organized. The women’s suffrage movement was organized, but so were opposition groups. It has happened throughout history. Organization is what gets things done…that’s why there are political parties.
In the Summer of 1920, the passage of the 19th Amendment giving women the right to vote was very much in doubt. Only one more state legislature had to ratify the amendment but the remaining states were in limbo. It was called the war of the roses. Supporters of the amendment, the “Suffs” which was short for “suffragists”, wore yellow roses while those opposed, or the “Antis” clung to a red rose. On August 18 in Tennessee, a vote was taken and it resulted in a tie. Young legislator Harry Burn was from the “anti” county of McMinn and he wore a red rose. But, it seems young Burn got a letter from his mother Febb Ensminger Burn who told her son to be a good boy and help put the “rat” in ratification and so on the second vote, he changed his vote, the amendment passed on this date in 1920, when the sun rose, the suffrage movement finally succeeded and women had gained the right to vote. Burn said, “I know that a mother’s advice is always safest for a boy to follow.” So, all you ladies out there should lift a glass to Febb….and hope the World Meteorological Organization doesn’t find out and call a hurricane Febb.
If you were in the White House of Lucy Hayes, the glass you lifted would have been the unleaded version and you certainly couldn’t be part of a “beer summit.” President Rutherford B. Hayes was no teetotaler but his administration followed that of President Grant whose White House had been assumed to be flowing with Whiskey. Hayes wanted to distance himself from the reputed Whiskey-soaked, scandal-ridden Grant and he had a wife, Lucy, who was big into the temperance movement. So, On This date in 1877, booze was banned at the White House and Lucy became known as “Lemonade Lucy.” The hired help though thought that they had put one over on the President and his wife.
See the chef made a “Roman Punch” part of the daily meal with a hollowed out orange filled with some sherbet-like concoction. Many a Senator was quite relieved when the tasted the brew because they were convinced it was filled with as much rum it could possibly hold. But, the president had the last laugh. Hayes wrote in his diary that he had ordered that the staff fill the punch “strongly with the same flavor that is found in Jamaica rum…There was not a drop of spirits in them!” Yes, indeed….quite the clever man that Rutherford B. Hayes. Too bad he wasn’t as clever in doing his job. After one term, the sitting president was unable to secure the nomination from his own party, losing out to eventual Republican President James Garfield. But, it’s a lesson to the kids…don’t ever think you can pull one over on the old man!
Weather Bottom Line: As I’ve been touting all week, Thursday looks to be the best chance for rain. My sunflowers need it but I”m a bit concerned because they are nearly 10 feet tall with big old flowers on top. I’m afraid of strong winds that may cause problems. We have lots of moisture. This afternoon, there will be scattered storms mainly popping up and roaming up from the southwest. Now, on Thursday, we have a front coming down. The boys at the HPC have the front depicted as on our doorstep by 8pm on Thursday. However, by 8am the next day, its only approaching Lexington. Hmm..Well, the front seems to get hung up with a vort lobe swinging around. It’s the timing of that lobe that is the bugaboo. See, the 12Z GFS just has all of the severe parameters go off the chart at 1am on Friday. It also puts out 2.7″ of rain from 7am Thu to 7am Fri. As is typically the case, the NAM is less bullish, with only about a quarter inch of rain for the same time frame. It has pretty high Bulk Richardson numbers and CINS but the SWEAT is rather pedestrian somewhere in the 250 range and the other parameters also are limited somewhat…but it too advertises the 1am Friday time frame for the biggest severe threat. All models dig the trof way into the Dixie States. So, it’s a strong front and the general idea of these models is that Hurricane Bill ends up just east of Maine with probably high seas for New England as the strong trof shoots Bill to the north very rapidly. For us, my guess is that we get more rain than advertised from the NAM and it may be heavy at times. I mean, come on…you can feel the moisture out there. The air will be therefore pretty unstable so I would think that Thursday night we can expect some watch boxes and strong storms. But, if they aren’t in the area in the evening or shortly after sundown, then they would tend to not be a general ferocity but instead a few scattered strong storms overnight. The timing will be key. There’s just so much potential energy, I just can’t believe that it will be as quiet as the NAM thinks.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009
VALID 201200Z – 211200Z
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LOWER MI AND OH SWWD
TO RED RIVER REGION OF SRN PLAINS…
SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGHING ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS UPPER
MIDWEST AND CENTRAL CONUS…WITH SLOW EWD SHIFT ACROSS MID-UPPER MS
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS. NEARLY PHASED BLEND OF
AMBIENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSORTED MVC’S — NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND REFLECTIVITY LOOPS OVER LOWER MO VALLEY
REGION — IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD REMAINDER DAY-1 AND BECOME ABSORBED
INTO DEVELOPING MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER MN. AS THIS
OCCURS…ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH — NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY INVOF ERN MT BORDER — IS FCST TO DIG SEWD…REACHING BASE
OF SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER SRN IA/NRN MO BY 20/12Z. THIS PERTURBATION
SHOULD EJECT NEWD ACROSS LM AND LOWER MI DURING ENSUING 12 HOURS AS
ANOTHER SPEED MAX DIGS SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO
VALLEY REGION. AFTER ABOUT 21/00Z…PROGS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY REGARDING CURVED PATH OF PRIMARY MID-UPPER VORTEX
CENTER OVER MN…WITH PREFERRED SREF CONSENSUS BEING CLOSE TO
OPERATIONAL WRF POSITION OVER LS BY 21/12Z.
AT SFC…CYCLONE NOW OVER CENTRAL MB IS FCST TO OCCLUDE DAY-1 WITH
FRONTAL TRIPLE-POINT LOW FORMING INVOF WRN LS BY START OF PERIOD.
LOW THEN SHOULD PIVOT EWD ACROSS LS THEN NEWD OVER NRN ONT THROUGH
21/12Z. ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT AT 20/12Z — LIKELY MODULATED ON
MESOSCALE BY BANDS/CLUSTERS OF ONGOING CONVECTION — SHOULD EXTEND
ACROSS SRN WI…WRN/CENTRAL IL AND S-CENTRAL MO…SWWD ACROSS SWRN
OK TO E-CENTRAL NM. AS DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE BECOMES STACKED OVER NRN
ONT/ERN LS REGION…COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER
MI…INDIANA AND MO BY 21/00Z…SWWD OVER N-CENTRAL/NW TX AND SERN
NM. BY END OF PERIOD…WRN SEGMENT OF FRONT MAY DECELERATE OVER W
AND CENTRAL TX…WHILE STILL MOVING EWD ACROSS UPPER OH VALLEY INTO
CENTRAL/NRN APPALACHIAN REGION. SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD
ACROSS PORTIONS LOWER MI…LE…AND INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS BY
EARLY IN PERIOD…REACHING ERN ONT AND SRN QUE BY 21/00Z.
…OH AND LOWER MI TO SRN PLAINS…
A FEW BANDS OF STG-SVR TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN PERIOD
ALONG…OR MORE PROBABLY JUST AHEAD OF…THAT SEGMENT OF SFC COLD
FRONT FROM OK TO OZARKS TO WI. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR MRGL
DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL. FOREGOING AIR MASS IS FCST TO
DESTABILIZE DIURNALLY — FROM MID-DAY INTO LATE AFTERNOON —
WEAKENING MLCINH IN SUPPORT OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. PREFRONTAL
SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO 70S F SHOULD BE COMMON FROM LOWER MI TO
RED RIVER VALLEY…WITH STG DIABATIC HEATING OUTSIDE ANY SWATHS OF
THICK CLOUD COVER PRODUCED BY EARLIER/ONGOING ACTIVITY. LAPSE RATES
ALOFT WILL INCREASE WITH SWWD EXTENT OVER FRONTAL ZONE…LARGELY
ACCOUNTING FOR SIMILAR TRENDS IN BUOYANCY. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PRE-STORM MLCAPE IN 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER PORTIONS LOWER
MI…WITH 3500-4000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS SERN OK…N-CENTRAL/NE TX
AND AR. FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE EVIDENT
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. WIND PROFILES WILL BE MORE NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL OVER GREAT LAKES STATES…BUT WITH FAVORABLE SPEED
SHEAR…WHEREAS LARGER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BENEATH WEAKER MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SWWD TO RED RIVER REGION. DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD
BE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS MOST OF OUTLOOK AREA…WITH RELATIVE
CONCENTRATION OF HAIL POTENTIAL EXPECTED FROM ARKLATEX TO RED RIVER
WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE FCST WITH POSSIBILITY OF
LONGER-LASTING DISCRETE MODE.
MORE SPECIFIC/LARGER CONCENTRATIONS OF SVR PROBABILITIES…IF
ANY…WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON MESOSCALE AND SMALLER PROCESSES —
I.E. PREFRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES…AND PACE OF EVOLUTION TO
CLUSTERED AND LINEAR STORM MODES.
…LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC…
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STG SFC HEATING…ALONG AND S OF SFC WARM
FRONT…WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS
FROM MID-DAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY UPPER
60S F WILL HELP TO OFFSET MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES — E.G. 6-6.5
DEG C/KM FROM 700-500 MB — TO PRODUCE MLCAPE IN 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE WITH NEGLIGIBLE CAPPING. LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS AND BULK
SHEAR EACH ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EWD FROM CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK
AREA…HOWEVER VENTILATING ANVIL-LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
STG. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH MAIN CONCERN
BEING STG-SVR DOWNDRAFTS…AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.