Hurricane Bill Satellite Imagery, Spaghetti Models and Discussion


for a more recent update on hurricane bill, CLICK HERE

Bill 2215Z 08.18.09

Bill 2215Z 08.18.09

for a more recent update on hurricane bill, CLICK HERE

Hurricane Bill Spaghetti Model 18Z 08.18.09

Hurricane Bill Spaghetti Model 18Z 08.18.09

NHC Bill Fcst Track 5pm 08.18.09

NHC Bill Fcst Track 5pm 08.18.09

Bill Intensity Spaghetti 18z 08.18.09

Bill Intensity Spaghetti 18z 08.18.09

Bill Vis Sat 2215Z 08.18.09

Bill Vis Sat 2215Z 08.18.09

for a more recent update on hurricane bill, CLICK HERE
So far, Bill has been behaving as expected and there is really no reason to think otherwise for the near term.  The ridge is beginning to weaken a tad and the storm is starting to make its turn as the heading is now placed at 290 degrees.   The forward speed remains steady but not too fast at 14 kts.  The storm has great structure with a well defined eye and good outflow pattern amidst its anticyclone aloft.  Sea surface temperatures in the region haven’t really been all that great and as it moves north of the Antilles, Bill should move into warmer waters, which will aid in development as well as continuing in a very conducive atmospheric environment.  But, as a strong frontal boundary moves across the US, the asscociated trof will aid in breaking down the ridge that is currently in charge of Bill’s track.  As the ridge breaks down, Bill will turn more northwesterly.  As it rounds the bend, it will encounter southwesterly flow ahead of the front that should be near the US East Coast by the end of the week.  The front is pretty formidable with a fairly deep trof associated with it, hence, the southwesterly flow ahead of if may be sufficient to mess up the upper support for Bill and some deterioration may occur.   All of the models suggest weakening in a few days.  Every model takes it to cat 3 on Wednesday and 3 increase it to Cat 4 before every model advertises weakening after that.  There is one outlyer that wants to take it up to Cat 4 about 5 days out, which is somewhat inexplicable at this point.

Bill Water Vapor 2215Z 08.18.09

Bill Water Vapor 2215Z 08.18.09

As mentioned in previous post, this guy has all along seemed to pose the biggest threat to Bermuda.  The news networks are trying to scare people.  Oil prices went up today for no good reason and some are trying to blame the hurricanes but more likely it was caused by technical issues because there is zero indication that this storm can or will go anywhere near any oil platforms.  The only caveat would be that the ridge re-establishes itself a little ahead of schedule.  That may force the storm farther west on the latter part of its journey toward the polar  regions.  Should that happen, New England may need to keep an eye out.  There are a couple of models that seem to want to point it toward Maine.  Possible, not probable given coriolis parameters at that latitude.  The high would really have to re-establish itself to do that or the more northern influence would have to be a little late.  Neither of those scenarios are likely.

Bottom line is that this is most likely going to be a problem for inhabitants of Bermuda (including those guys who got released from Guantanamo) tourists and maritime interests. It’s also an opportunity for news and cable outlets to hype a storm that will most likely affect a relatively small number of people.

WTNT43 KNHC 182047
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009
500 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

BILL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE AND SYMMETRIC HURRICANE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
BILL THIS AFTERNOON REPORTED PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 114
KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE SFMR OBSERVED MAXIMUM WINDS
AROUND 85 KT IN EACH QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE.  USING A BLEND OF
THESE DATA…THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KT.
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
90 AND 102 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/14.  THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BILL IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A
WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  THEREAFTER…THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CHANGED VERY LITTLE THROUGH 48
HOURS…BUT HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AS BEFORE THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ON THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE LEFT.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH DAY 2…AND HAS NOT BEEN
ADJUSTED APPRECIABLY BEYOND THAT TIME AS WELL.  THE NEW FORECAST
LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE USUALLY
WELL-PERFORMING ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SSTS GRADUALLY
INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.  BEYOND 72 HOURS…DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      18/2100Z 16.6N  52.2W    95 KT
12HR VT     19/0600Z 17.5N  54.3W   105 KT
24HR VT     19/1800Z 18.9N  56.9W   115 KT
36HR VT     20/0600Z 20.7N  59.3W   115 KT
48HR VT     20/1800Z 22.6N  61.8W   115 KT
72HR VT     21/1800Z 27.3N  65.8W   110 KT
96HR VT     22/1800Z 33.5N  68.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     23/1800Z 40.5N  65.5W    85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

12 Responses

  1. Great posts for the last few days. I recognize the plummer story–it was worth repeating though. I’ve been busy with some significant issues at home that have kept my mind occupied. Sorry for no comments but I’ve been reading as always.

  2. Me too. My classes at JCC (JCTC) started on Monday. It’s only two classes but it takes some time to prepare.

  3. this is going to be bad

  4. Probably not unless you live in Bermuda, and even that is a big IF. A hurricane’s job in life is to transport heat and moisture from the tropical regions to the polar regions. The trick is to get them to do that without hitting anything. Bill may do just that. Nova Scotia may be interesting though down the line.

  5. In Halifax, NS…looking at projected path and spaghetti models, majority says making landfall on us. Is this going to be another Juan? I’m hearing everything from 50-146 km per hour winds but it is 5 days out. With a hurricane, when do you know it’s path with best certainty? Don’t want to end up hunting for water and canned goods last minute. Think 48-36 hours before good to tell?

  6. This storm is what…1000 miles away. Way to soon to tell. Lets say that the initial motion is off by 2 degrees…that would result in a landfall way way off any of the models. Your 48 hour time frame will probably give you a pretty good idea. What has happened is that the models have picked up on what I had suggested a few days ago and that being the ridge hanging tough or re-establishing itself a bit. Does that happen? Call God. But, I will say that the official forecast calls for some weakening as it approaches. That makes sense due to colder water and running into shearing winds. But, at that lattitude and given the fact its getting shot out of a cannon via the trof, then it should be moving along…lets say 40 mph maybe. Its forward momentum and the fact that it has or had been a very strong storm would lead me to believe that a storm surge higher than what might normally be expected from whatever strength bill is at land fall can be possible and maybe expected. Right now…don’t sweat it, but keep an eye out.

  7. LOL! Live about 50 ft from open ocean, so I’ll be watching. Truth be told I’d love a good storm and hope we get something safe but interesting. Thanks for your reply.🙂

  8. this is great , this is very interesting and useful.

  9. I agree, your insights are great and I appreciate it. Now if only you could help me get all the projectiles off my lawn in NS, I’d be really impressed. LOL.

    So being 50ft away from open ocean, question now is, where is the safest place to hunker down in this wind tunnel of a house? A Southwest corner? The basement if I am at sea level, eg flooding? If we get evac’d I wouldn’t be able to take my 6 pets to a shelter, but wouldn’t ride out here ’cause I am a mum and it is my responsiblity to keep my little guy safe. So What is the safest place in a 2 storey home that sways in 70 km gusts, is the basement off limits to the storm surge potential? Do I reserve a hotel inland just in case now, as I doubt they’ll be any to be had if predictions stay the same. Safe than sorry?

  10. Since I don’t know the exact topography I’ll answer in a general manner…and it should scare you. If the storm is heading toward you…and that’s a big if as there are several scenarios. But, if it looks like its coming…absolutely if you it would hit to your west putting you on the right hand side. Leave. Make sure you take anything and everything that you want to keep. People have no clue as to what a storm surge can do. If you stay with a landfalling hurricane and you are 50 feet from the ocean, your chances of survival will decrease dramatically. Even with say a 75 mph hurricane, I’m betting that this cat comes in at 40 or 50 mph and that momentum will be pushing up a fair amount of water. Even if it loses that much strength…even a 10 foot storm surge would be very dangerous because you’ve got waves on top of that. I don’t know how the shelf hangs out but I doubt if a surge of just 10 feet would happen. Now, if you are on the left side, then its a different story. Listen to the local advisories and if they say to get out…do so and take your animals and anything you want to keep. If you come back and all is well, get on your knees don’t be pissed.

    Scare you enough?

  11. You’re awesome, thanks for advice…I bounce it off of the locals here (of which I am not, as you may be able to tell) and am concerned that no one taking it seriously at all, after all, you well know by all the disaster shows that “Planning a quiet evening at home” is mistake #1-LOL they’re always the ones in trouble. I need the real answers on possible scenarios to make proper contingency plans so that I play it smart.I thought I remembered people saying the west side of the storm is the most powerful, starting to hear that’s what it looks like for Halifax with winds & rain similar to Juan (but that doesn’t give me good comparison – wasn’t here for that) – but I do know that a lot of the province was without power for the better part of a week and I will most definitely be prepared. Good to have you, everyone here so worried about looking scared they undermine what the conditions may be and so it’s been frustrating trying to gauge what I need to think about. The only thing that scares me with a potential storm such as this coming is being dumb! Splitting my emergency kit, food, clothes and pet supplies between the house and the car, getting my photos safe from the basement, will check the reports before bed and if it stays on path booking a room for 3 days inland – so I have one ready if evac’d for all my babies, and If they say “go” all I have to do is get in the car. Thanks for your help.

  12. Make sure you get it right…it’s the right hand side of the storm that is the worst, by far. The wind flow is counter clockwise, so when the storm makes landfall, the right hand side will have the onshore flow which pushes the water up. That in combination with the forward momentum creates the storm surge on the right hand side. The level of the surge depends on the wind speed, the forward momentum of the storm and its mass, how much water was previously pushed up, whether or not you are at high tide and also the contintental shelf/water depth/ topography of the region at landfall. The left hand side of the storm near the eye will have some surge. Remember, New Orleans was just on the left side of Katrina and its surge was still sufficient to have problems but not nearly the 34 foot surge on the right hand side in Mississippi. Technically, New Orleans did not get hit directly by a hurricane, Mississsippi did. But, a little farther west of New Orleans, there was no surge. When Andrew came ashore in Vermillion Bay in Louisiana, Lake Charles about 80 miles west got .03 inches of rain where as 80 miles to the east they had many inches. When Celia came ashore near Corpus Christi Texas in 1970, south of the landfall there was actually a negative surge…the off shore windflow from the left hand side of the storm actually pushed the ocean out so that levels were lower. I was told once that you could walk a mile out where the ocean was supposed to be…not sure if I buy that completely and certainly would not have ventured out not knowing when the ocean would decide to return. But, the forces of nature are incredible. You saw the energy release estimates of a full blow hurricane…a 20 megaton nuclear explosion equivalent every 20 minutes. Humans cannot do a thing about it and most people have no clue as to the force of water and wind at those levels. Forces increase on a logrithmic scale in relation to wind speeds, so 110 mph winds are not just 10% stronger than 100% winds…much greater than that. As I said before, pay attention to the local warnings and advisories and do what they say. Better safe than sorry. Generally most people who decide to “ride out” a hurricane swear they will never do so again because they were so terrified. Even with a fast moving storm, you could expect many hours…like at least 12 of constant winds from 50 to well over 100 mph, depending on your location and the storm strength. Can be pretty terrifying and it gets old after awhile.

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