Allen Funt: Ahead of his Time; Herbert Hoover: Hero; Invest 99L: Potential Ana?


PBDALFU EC004funtOn This Date in History: On this date in 1948, Candid Camera debuted. Its creator, Allen Funt, had originally run the program for radio. It would be a pretty boring show if it relied on a camera so it was called Candid Microphone. Here is a sample of a Candid Microphone episode with Bela Lugosi (part1) (part 2)He took the concept to TV but for the first season he kept the name Candid Microphone. Candid Camera is much catchier and made more sense for TV and it was probably pretty fortunate for Funt that he wised up. With the Internet and camera phones, the concept lives on today but in its day, Candid Camera provided some of the funniest moments in television history. If you think about it, Funt really created reality TV. So I guess we can blame him for Big Brother.

Happy Birthday Herbie

Happy Birthday Herbie

When we hear the name Allen Funt, we think of “smile.” People usually don’t think of smiling when they hear the name Herbert Hoover, but perhaps they should. Hoover was born on this date in 1874. He is best known for holding the presidency during the first part of the Great Depression. He had been elected in 1928 amidst the “Roaring Twenties.” During his first year in office, the stock market crashed, the global economy collapsed and he was left being held accountable as many Americans faulted him for not doing anything. Its rather ironic that he is seen as a failure during a time of crisis because he seemed well suited for the task. Hoover in 1914 is credited with organizing efforts that brought 120,000 Americans home from Europe in six weeks time at the outset of the Great War.

Hoover responsible for feeding millions

Hoover responsible for feeding millions

In 1917, President Wilson appointed him as head of the Food Administration.  He is called in some circles as “the great humanitarian.”  He managed to cut food consumption at home, feed the troops overseas while not resorting to food rationing for Americans. After the War, Hoover is credited with organizing and implementing a massive food lift to Europe.

Millions of Children May Have Lived Because of Herbert Hoover

Millions of Children May Have Lived Because of Herbert Hoover

Many scholars point to Hoover’s efforts through 1921 as being the key to saving the lives of millions of Europeans who otherwise would have starved as the war had decimated agricultural production on the other side of the pond. He faced the task of feeding over 20 million people, many of them children, and he rose to the occasion and got the job done. That is why its rather curious that such a man would fall short in the Depression. But it really wasn’t his fault and while many people credit FDR with pulling the US out of the Depression, many scholars argue that it was war time production with the massive governmental spending that ended the depression. Nevertheless, many people had smiles in the face of despair in the early 20th century because Herbert Hoover was born on this date in 1874. I think history has been quite unkind to him.

Side Tidbit: The only election that Hoover served as a candidate was the 1928 presidential election that he won. He had been appointed to most of his previous jobs. President Hoover and President Carter are the only two presidents who were Engineers. Both men were very very smart yet both presided over economic malaise in the nation. Perhaps its just bad luck for Americans to elect an Engineer as President.
Invest 99L Forecast Track 6z 08.10.09

Invest 99L Forecast Track 6z 08.10.09

Invest 99L Satellite 1315Z 08.10.09

Invest 99L Satellite 1315Z 08.10.09

In The Atlantic:  A tropical cyclone (Invest 99L) is trying to get itself going and it probably will become the first tropical storm of the season.  A goodly number of the models indicate that, but not too many take it into the hurricane category any time soon.  That makes sense because it is very far south. It came off of Africa at 12 N. It’s tough to get a circulation going that far south.  That’s what impressed me about this and why it caught my attention right away as it appeared to have some potential right out of the gate.  But, I also mentioned the trof that was over the US for so long and how it had moved out into the Atlantic.  I think the remnant of that will be influencing this guy a bit as it is forecast to track pretty far northwest. Almost too far northwest for it to be considered a likely threat to the US.  Not impossible, but tough to do.  There is a lot of ocean and coriolis forces alone will want to turn it to the right.  Many models continue it on a northwest track and into the north central Atlantic.  Again, that makes some sense due to the general trofiness.  But, lets lay out this scenario:  It does exactly that then gets caught up in the ridge over the eastern US which is expanding into the Atlantic, moves southwest for a time and then west around the ridge.  That’ why this guy is worth watching.

SPC Severe Threat Today and Tonight

SPC Severe Threat Today and Tonight

SPC Severe Threat Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night

SPC Severe Threat Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night

Weather Bottom Line:  I saw a weather foof on TV this weekend say that the jet stream was going to dive down this week and bring us cooler weather.  Nonsense.  There is a short wave coming across bringing a slight dip in the jet and there will be a weak front.  We have lots of warm moist unstable air.  So, the lead short will initiate big storms this afternoon out west.  We may get the line this evening…probably on the downside of life but the potential energy in our atmosphere may keep them going.  Then the front comes on Tuesday.  When I checked the parameters, the GFS was pretty bullish late in the day on Tuesday with the NAM typically not as agressive.  The GFS even had the SWEAT parameters up into the range in which one might look for twisters.  So, look for the chance for storms this evening with maybe a few troublemakers.  Then look for a better chance for strong storms on Tuesday.  Both models want to continue off and on showers through Thursday.  This is due to the weak front hanging around, so any cooler temperatures we get will be due to clouds and showers, not a change in the jetstream.  With that it mind, it should remain pretty humid and we’ll get back to seasonal temperatures when the threat for showers winds up later in the week.  Rain totals for the first two days both indicate around an inch with about an inch and half total through Thursday.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0925 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009
  
   VALID 101300Z – 111200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLNS THROUGH THE
   MID MS/OH VLYS TO THE NORTHEAST…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE NATION
   THIS PERIOD AS UPR RDG NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST ELONGATES W ACROSS TX
   AND THE SRN RCKYS.  MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW NEAR DLH WILL MOVE E
   ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS INTO SRN ONTARIO…PRECEDED BY AN MCV-TYPE
   IMPULSE NOW OVER LK MI…AND PERHAPS BY A SIMILAR FEATURE NOW NEAR
   BUF.  UPSTREAM…CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED IMPULSE NOW IN SW NEB SHOULD
   CONTINUE ENEWD…BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW
   OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
  
   AT LWR LVLS…DIFFUSE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LK HURON SW THROUGH
   ERN IA INTO CNTRL KS WILL CONTINUE STEADILY ESEWD…WITH TRAILING
   WRN PART BECOMING STNRY OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS.  THE FRONT AND
   PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR
   STRONG TO SVR STORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
  
   …MID MS VLY/GRT LKS INTO THE NERN STATES/SRN NEW ENGLAND…
   ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS NOW OVER NW PA/WRN NY SHOULD STRENGTHEN
   LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN AS HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES
   REGION.  ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM TOWARD MIDDAY OR A BIT LATER
   INVOF COLD FRONT IN LWR MI…AND PERHAPS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN
   IND/OH.
  
   WARM SECTOR AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MOIST /PW RANGING FROM 1.50
   TO 2.00 INCHES/…WITH HEATING BOOSTING SBCAPE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND
   2500 J/KG.  BELT OF MODERATE /35-40 KT/ DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW
   WILL PERSIST ACROSS REGION…RESULTING HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF N/S
   BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND.  THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE
   INTO CLUSTERS…WITH A SVR THREAT THAT COULD LINGER INTO EARLY
   TONIGHT.
  
   …CNTRL PLAINS…
   SFC HEATING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION E/SE
   OF LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW IN NW KS.  THE SYSTEM
   APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED A WEAK MCV STRUCTURE THAT…COUPLED WITH
   GLANCING INFLUENCE OF ASSOCIATED UPR IMPULSE…MAY AUGMENT
   DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.
  
   COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE /30 KT/ DEEP WNW
   SHEAR COULD SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A SUSTAINED…
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS.  EMBEDDED LEWPS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS COULD
   POSE A THREAT FOR SVR WIND/HAIL E/ESE ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND PERHAPS
   WRN MO THROUGH THIS EVE AS MOIST LOW LVL SSW FLOW PERSISTS.
  
   FARTHER W…DIURNAL TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER
   ROUND OF STORMS OVER THE CO MOUNTAINS…DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS IN
   WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR DISTURBANCE.  REGION WILL REMAIN ON SRN FRINGE
   WLY FLOW ALOFT.  COUPLED WITH LIGHT ELY LOW-LVL  WINDS…VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF
   MAINLY HAIL AND DMGG WIND INTO TONIGHT.
  
   ..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 08/10/2009

5 Responses

  1. Yeah, I think that flooding last week is causing our local meteorologists to sensationalize the potential storms this week. MORE FLOODING!!! I think that makes a good headline or so some would think. It will be interesting to see what happens. It wouldn’t take much rain to get flooding I would imagine since everything is still pretty saturated from last week. I did have to water my flowers yesterday for the first time in several weeks!

  2. My sunflowers are nearly 8 feet tall. I had them secure but a wind gust from the northeast took one down…the one that the yard guy had damaged at the base with his weed eater. But, I quickly tied it to the fence post and Snow White and I said a prayer for my sunflower and low and behold, its still going strong. I guess it was able to repair itself and keep the water and nutrients moving up the stem, inspite of the damage at the base.

    I’ve been hearing more sensationalizing of the heat…we finally got to 90 and now its “so hot.” Hey, its’August. But, I will say that with the moisture content, I suspect that there will be a potential for more than just an inch over the 36 hr time from from Monday evening to Wednesday morning. BTW…the paper said on the headline that we had a “record 6.5 inches” last Tuesday…uhh…the record was 4.53″ At my house I had 4 inches. I have an idea of what really happened, but I’ll have to save it.

  3. i remembr when i was in my mother’s sunflower garden, i personally reckon they a thing of beauty and immense relaxation!

  4. Herbert Hoover was not a hero. In fact, he sucked. Pretty badly. Bad President, bad decisions, put the nation into the crapper.

  5. Prior to his presidency, he probably was as responsible for any individual for saving millions of lives. His biggest mistake was Taft Hartley. After that, only the war pulled the naiton out of depression. It’s not clear that FDR really did anything to do so except make people think he was doing something.

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