Typhoon Morakot Brings 100 In. of Rain to Taiwan; Storm Brewing in Atlantic


Wave

Morakot Satellite 1057Z 08.10.09

Morakot Satellite 1057Z 08.10.09

trackMorakot Hits Taiwan and China:  Tropical Storm Morakot went across Taiwan and now has hit China well south of Shanghai in the Fujian Province.  It had been a Typhoon but its biggest legacy is the flooding in Taiwan.  Around 100 inches of rain…that’s not a type-0…100 inches of rain has fallen in many parts of the island nation.  The flooding is causing tremendous damage as depicted in this AP raw video of a hotel collapsing violently into a raging river.    At least 6 are dead or missing and 15 are injured.  Don’t be surprised to see those numbers increase. Here is Reuters video of Typhoon Mokarot making landfall.

Hotel Collapse

Hotel Collapse

The outer bans of Morakot hit the Phillipines resulting in 10 fatalities.  As the tropical storm moved into China, 1,000,000 people were evacuated.  Flooding is expected with a rather (in comparison)  pedestrian 10-20 inches of rain expected over Southwest China.  I suspect that the fact that the storm was more formidable and that Taiwan has mountains is what is behind the huge rain totals over the island with respect to the rather flat terrain of the Chinese provinces.  Here is the latest from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center:

WDPN32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

Bridges Washed Out

Bridges Washed Out

2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MORAKOT) HAS SLOWLY TRACKED ACROSS
THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND MADE LANDFALL IN THE FUJIAN PROVINCE OF CHINA.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES, BUT WITH
LIMITED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ALSO EVIDENT IN ANIMATED
INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS A VERY WELL DEFINED RADIAL
OUTFLOW PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 09W IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS,
BUT NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW SOURCE THAT IS CONTRIBUTING

100 In. of Rain Causes Massive Flooding in Taiwan

100 In. of Rain Causes Massive Flooding in Taiwan

GREATLY
TO THE LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND HEALTHY OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE COMPETING STEERING FLOWS OF THE SOUTHWEST
MONSOONAL FLOW AND THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER
MAINLAND CHINA. POSITION IS BASED ON A FIX BY PGTW WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE POOR DEFINITION OF THE SYSTEM OVER LAND.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. AS THE STR BECOMES ERODED BY THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE
Taiwan TyphoonTROUGH, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. DISSIPATION
IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR BY TAU 24. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
REMNANTS OF TS 09W WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES THE EAST CHINA SEA BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72.
FORECAST TEAM: ECHO//

Invest 99L Satellite 1645Z 08.09.09

Invest 99L Satellite 1645Z 08.09.09

SPC Convective Outlook for Mon Aug 10 2009

SPC Convective Outlook for Mon Aug 10 2009

Weather Bottom Line:  In the meantime, a very intersting looking tropical wave has emerged off the African coast.  The satellite imagery is quite impressive and I betcha that Invest 99L becomes the first tropical storm of the season in pretty short order.   It’s way way out there and there are so many variables that it is totally impossible to say what will happen.  The trofiness that was over the US for so long has moved out to sea but a big ridge has developed.  That ridge will make our weather pretty standard for the time of year today.  A weak front may try to bring some activity here early in the week but don’t look for a huge cooldown.  First a shortwave will wander by on Monday bringing a chance for rain and t’storms followed by the weak, rather slow moving front.  With all of the moisture we have in place, it is a possibility that sometime from Monday afternoon through Tuesday, we could see heavy downpours again with thunderstorm activity.  The boundary should sag to the south and east on Wednesday.   The ridge is pretty strong so the front is struggling and the long wave pattern really wont change much, which is why I say not to to expect less humid or really cooler weather beyond what occurs with clouds and rain.  That ridge building may be indicative of a more typical pattern emerging in the Atlantic, which would lend itself to the idea that Invest 99L would track as normal across the Atlantic so it needs to be watched.

ABNT20 KNHC 091730
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE…ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE…IS
CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 TO 50 PERCENT…OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT…SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

9 Responses

  1. Taiwan has airlifted emergency teams into a remote village where dozens are feared to have been trapped by mudslides after Typhoon Morakot brought torrential rain to the island.

    Eight specially trained rescuers and 13 soldiers from an elite unit were helicoptered into Hsiaolin, in southern Kaohsiung county, where reports said up to hundreds of villagers could have been buried by the mud.

    State-funded Central News Agency said the rescuers had found more than 100 villagers who survived the mudslides by seeking shelter on a nearby mountain.

    Rescuers earlier flew 45 people to safety and survivors spoke of family members being engulfed.

    A 46-year-old man, identified only by his surname Weng, told TVBS cable news network that he had narrowly escaped as he checked a makeshift wooden house near his home, but that 10 other family members had disappeared in the mud.

    ”All of them were gone,” he said in tears.

    Rescue authorities plan to send up to 160 rescuers to the village, an official from the disaster contingency center surnamed Liang said.

    ”As long as weather permits, we’ll send more people there,” he said.

    Su Shen-tsun, one the rescuers flown into Hsiaolin by helicopter, told reporters that he was surprised by what he had seen.

    ”I could hardly believe my eyes. For a while, I even suspected we had the wrong search target,” Su said.

    ”The whole village disappeared and even roofs of the houses could not be seen,” he said.

    ”Also, the whole mountain against which the village sat was flattened.”

    Local television reported that 200 homes may have been destroyed by mudslides in Hsiaolin.

    ”To tell the truth, we don’t know how many people were trapped there,” Liang said.

    Lin Chien-chung, a rescued villager, was quoted by the United Evening Newspaper as saying that his home and neighborhood were buried and that up to 600 people could have been buried alive.

    However, rescuers said the figure was an overestimate.

    香港仔時昌迷你倉

  2. About 700 people from the remote mountains of southern Taiwan have been found alive overnight after it was feared they may have been buried by mudslides, but many are still missing, an official said.

    Typhoon Morakot, which ravaged Taiwan over the weekend, has killed 63 people across the island. Over the past week more than 100 people have been killed in Asia due to Morakot and tropical storm Etau.

    In Kaohsiung county in Taiwan’s south, hundreds of survivors from several villages made it to higher ground before walls of mud and rock submerged their homes, said Hu Jui-chou, an army official involved in the rescue effort.

    ”I’ll have to say I feel pretty good to be alive,” said Lin Dong-wen, 45, a villager from Namahsia, sitting in front of a pile of medicine after he was rescued earlier in the day.

    ”If I had been left there any longer, I wouldn’t have made it. I saw the mudslide coming, which was really huge, and I passed out. When I woke up, there was mud all over and I climbed out of it,” said Lin.

    Among those feared buried but later found alive were about 200 people from Hsiao Lin, a village that was wiped out by a landslide, and several others from Namahsia village, officials said
    .
    ”They had already left the main village and gone to another one,” Hu said, adding that they used satellite phones to locate the villagers. ”We don’t need to rescue them. We can just send in food.”

    Helicopters dropped food and supplies to survivors, some perched on hills, while other rescuers in rubber dinghies crossed raging muddy rivers to save victims.

    But many people in villages across Taiwan are still missing, officials said.

    Torrential rains from the typhoon had triggered landslides that wiped out villages and caused low-rise buildings lined along rivers to crash into the waters. Roads and bridges were also destroyed, making rescue efforts difficult.

    Over the past few days, as hundreds of anxious relatives waited at a makeshift search and rescue base, helicopters brought survivors, many injured, back from the villages as mudslides had blocked the roads.

    香港仔時昌迷你倉

  3. I cant see last two photos. Which are fro. satellite.

  4. Thanks for this.
    Would you give web adress of weather ?

  5. I want to see more potos from taiwan.

  6. What do you mean?

  7. The links on the post provide more photos..a whole bunch

  8. I can see the last two photos which are the forecast track of the time for Invest 99L in the Atlantic as well as the then current satellite image.

  9. that is a fantastic 4rum

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