Morakot Hits Taiwan and China: Tropical Storm Morakot went across Taiwan and now has hit China well south of Shanghai in the Fujian Province. It had been a Typhoon but its biggest legacy is the flooding in Taiwan. Around 100 inches of rain…that’s not a type-0…100 inches of rain has fallen in many parts of the island nation. The flooding is causing tremendous damage as depicted in this AP raw video of a hotel collapsing violently into a raging river. At least 6 are dead or missing and 15 are injured. Don’t be surprised to see those numbers increase. Here is Reuters video of Typhoon Mokarot making landfall.
The outer bans of Morakot hit the Phillipines resulting in 10 fatalities. As the tropical storm moved into China, 1,000,000 people were evacuated. Flooding is expected with a rather (in comparison) pedestrian 10-20 inches of rain expected over Southwest China. I suspect that the fact that the storm was more formidable and that Taiwan has mountains is what is behind the huge rain totals over the island with respect to the rather flat terrain of the Chinese provinces. Here is the latest from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center:
WDPN32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W WARNING NR 24//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MORAKOT) HAS SLOWLY TRACKED ACROSS
THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND MADE LANDFALL IN THE FUJIAN PROVINCE OF CHINA.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES, BUT WITH
LIMITED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ALSO EVIDENT IN ANIMATED
INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS A VERY WELL DEFINED RADIAL
OUTFLOW PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 09W IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS,
BUT NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW SOURCE THAT IS CONTRIBUTING
TO THE LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND HEALTHY OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE COMPETING STEERING FLOWS OF THE SOUTHWEST
MONSOONAL FLOW AND THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER
MAINLAND CHINA. POSITION IS BASED ON A FIX BY PGTW WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE POOR DEFINITION OF THE SYSTEM OVER LAND.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. AS THE STR BECOMES ERODED BY THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. DISSIPATION
IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR BY TAU 24. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
REMNANTS OF TS 09W WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES THE EAST CHINA SEA BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72.
FORECAST TEAM: ECHO//
Weather Bottom Line: In the meantime, a very intersting looking tropical wave has emerged off the African coast. The satellite imagery is quite impressive and I betcha that Invest 99L becomes the first tropical storm of the season in pretty short order. It’s way way out there and there are so many variables that it is totally impossible to say what will happen. The trofiness that was over the US for so long has moved out to sea but a big ridge has developed. That ridge will make our weather pretty standard for the time of year today. A weak front may try to bring some activity here early in the week but don’t look for a huge cooldown. First a shortwave will wander by on Monday bringing a chance for rain and t’storms followed by the weak, rather slow moving front. With all of the moisture we have in place, it is a possibility that sometime from Monday afternoon through Tuesday, we could see heavy downpours again with thunderstorm activity. The boundary should sag to the south and east on Wednesday. The ridge is pretty strong so the front is struggling and the long wave pattern really wont change much, which is why I say not to to expect less humid or really cooler weather beyond what occurs with clouds and rain. That ridge building may be indicative of a more typical pattern emerging in the Atlantic, which would lend itself to the idea that Invest 99L would track as normal across the Atlantic so it needs to be watched.
ABNT20 KNHC 091730
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE…ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE…IS
CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 TO 50 PERCENT…OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT…SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.