Invest 97L Still out there; No real strong indications of development yet


Invest 97L satellite image 1715Z July 20 2009

Invest 97L satellite image 1715Z July 20 2009

US Navy Invest Spagetti Model 12Z 7.20.09

US Navy Invest Spagetti Model 12Z 7.20.09

More comprehensive Invest 97L spaghetti model 12Z 07.20.07

More comprehensive Invest 97L spaghetti model 12Z 07.20.07

Invest 97L spaghetti Intensity graph

Invest 97L spaghetti Intensity graph

Invest 97L looks a little better on today’s satellite imagery.  The 12Z spagetti intensity graph looks similar as before with only 7 models reporting.  However, the top guy is not as strong and the weakest one takes it into the tank.  Most continue to advertise a tropical storm.  While  the satellite imagery looks better, the NHC reports that winds aloft are not conducive for any development over the next couple of days.  But, some of the models disagree.  Even if this guy were to develop, the mean long wave pattern is such that the system may get picked up and taken up the east coast or out to sea.  But, some models want to take it into the Yucatan channel into the Gulf or even more westerly into southern Mexico or Central America with the idea that it will sneak under the deep eastern US trof.  So far, nothing to get worked up about and certainly nothing that is imminent as there are many many variables that are working against this guy, but if it were to get enthused, then it would be called Ana. Not much but its the only game in town.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT…LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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