On This Date In History: On this date in 1923, novelist and “muckraker” Upton Sinclair went to jail in Los Angeles, Cailifornia. The charge against him? He was charged by the LAPD of expressing ideas that were “calculated to cause hatred ann contempt” for the Federal government. Sounds pretty bad. What ideas did he express? Why the dastardly skalawag Sinclair spoke to a group of striking transportation workers and read the Bill of Rights!!!
That’s right….well…sorta….see, he never made it through all ten amendments. He didn’t even make it through the first one. He read part of the First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America which guarantees freedom of speech, of religion, of the press and when he got to the part about the right “of the people peaceably to assemble,” that’s when the men in blue swept in and hustled him off to the pokey. Not only was he in jail for 22 hours, it was 22 hours without being allowed to speak to anyone. The police chief wanted to hold him even longer. But, there was an insider.
An underling to the chief called Sinclair’s wife, who called a lawyer who subsequently gained Sinclair’s release. As for the police chief, he got fired. Oh…not for violating Sinclair’s Constitutional rights or anything….at least officially. Nope…the chief got fired after he was found at night in a parked car with a woman and bottle of whiskey!!! Now that is criminal mischief if I’ve ever heard it before. He’s lucky they didn’t lock him up and throw the keys away.
Just another example of how the police in this country have gone beyond their duties or beyond the law…in this case violating a basis for our Republic and the country didn’t fall apart. The issue got dealt with and so did those involved and the world didn’t stop spinning, nor was Presidnet Warren G. Harding called a liar or blamed. It happens. We are still trying to build a more perfect union but we have yet to have perfect people in every level of government.
Preakness Stakes Weather at Pimlico:
It’s pretty humid in Baltimore on Friday and that will continue into Saturday. Look for a morning start on Preakness Day in the upper 50’s. Guess is that there will be a fairly heavy dew. At first post time, it will be in the low 70’s at Pimlico. Now, a frontal boundary will be approaching by Saturday afternoon. While the front itself won’t come through until after the Run for the Black Eyed Susans, there will be sufficient instability with afternoon heating into the low 80’s and fairly high dewpoints to trigger wandering afternoon showers and t’storms. My guess is that if you do find yourself under a thundershower, there is a fair chance of it being a fairly heavy downpour. Handicappers are advised to hold their bets until as close to the race as possible to see if one of those storms has come to or is heading toward the track. Don’t look for a lot of rain over a period of time like at the Derby, but a roaming t’storm could make a difference should it come and drop a decent little downpour right before the race. I don’t know how Pimlico drains to suggest how the track will react.
Weather Bottom Line: A cold front will move through around midday to early afternoon on Saturday. Given the time of day and lack of dynamics, a wide spread severe event is not anticipated but heavy down pours and t’storms are a fair bet with maybe some gusty winds and small hail. Rain chances should tail off by mid to late afternoon. Cooler dryer air moves in for Sunday and we go through a dry stretch for the first half of next week with temperatures at or slightly below seasonal averages.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009
VALID 152000Z – 161200Z
…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL MO INTO
ERN AND S-CNTRL KS…
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W TX INTO THE PARTS OF THE
OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES…
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY…
…LOWER MO VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT…
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MCS CURRENTLY EVOLVING N OF MKC IS
NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE LOW SITUATED AT INTERSECTION OF WARM
AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. MODIFICATION OF 18Z SGF SOUNDING FOR
IMMEDIATE INFLOW AIR MASS SUGGESTS THAT ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. EWD MIGRATION OF
40-45 KT LLJ ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
A ZONE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FLUX INTO MCS WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO
STRENGTHEN SYSTEM WITH AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND…HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT DEVELOPING ESEWD TOWARD THE STL AREA.
FARTHER E…ADDITIONAL MORE CELLULAR STORMS ARE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME
SUSTAINED OVER NERN MO INTO W-CNTRL IL…NEAR SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT
WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR MKC TO S OF UIN TO NEAR DEC AS OF 18Z.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENVIRONMENT FROM NERN MO INTO
CNTRL/NRN IL WILL UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE MODIFICATION THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH NWD MOVEMENT OF SURFACE WARM FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
40-50 KT SWLY LLJ INTO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION IN ADDITION TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN
ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEWD TOWARD THE QUAD CITIES. AS
SUCH…ONGOING STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY…POTENTIALLY
EVOLVING INTO A SECONDARY BOWING SYSTEM AND/OR SUPERCELLS WITH THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS…HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD/NEWD INTO
PORTIONS OF NRN IND/SRN LOWER MI TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW
AND ALONG LLJ AXIS.
…CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT…
AS OF 18Z…COLD FRONT TRAILING SURFACE LOW NEAR MKC EXTENDED SWWD
THROUGH CNTRL KS INTO THE NRN TX PNHDL WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A STEADY SWD MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARY. 18Z
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDINGS FROM OUN…AMA AND S-CNTRL KS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE
MIDLEVELS…WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
IS RESULTING IN A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE
OF 2000-3500 J/KG. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CAPPED…BUT COMBINATION OF
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ALONG FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODESTLY
STRONG /I.E. 30-40 KT/ MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CNTRL/SRN KS
INTO FAR NRN OK WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT. GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE…IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THIS ZONE OF HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW. WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD…THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS. WITH TIME STORMS MAY
ATTEMPT TO GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR AN MCS ACROSS OK WITH THE
WIND/HAIL THREAT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE…SEE MCD 835.
FARTHER S…ISOLATED STORMS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG DRYLINE IN WRN TX
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN QUITE
WEAK…LEADING TO OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE…SEE MCD 834.
…UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING…
1630Z DISCUSSION FOR THIS REGION REMAINS VALID WITH ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS MADE TO WRN EDGE OF SLIGHT RISK.
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/
…LOWER MO ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS…
SURFACE WARM FRONT IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM NERN KS INTO NRN
MO AND SRN/CENTRAL IL AT MID MORNING. MODEST SWLY LLJ AT 12Z OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE
LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND VEER TO A MORE WSWLY
DIRECTION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ONGOING CLUSTER OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS…ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH
16Z…ENEWD AS WELL. TRAILING CLUSTER OF STORMS REMAINS MORE ROBUST
NEAR THE MO/NE/KS TRI-STATE REGION WHICH MAY BECOME MORE SURFACE
BASED INTO NRN MO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR…TRANSITION TO A WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE WITH
00Z HIGH-RES WRF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING A BOW ECHO/HP-SUPERCELL
EVOLUTION NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN MO BY THE MID AFTERNOON.
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXPAND INTO MORE OF IL AND THE SRN
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE EVENING AS LLJ AND SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFT NEWD. INCREASED ASCENT AHEAD OF MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL OVERSPREAD MODEST INSTABILITY
AND SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO
TONIGHT OVER THIS REGION.
OVERALL FORECAST/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
OUTLOOKS ACROSS THIS REGION. MODEST CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
NEAR SEWD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NWRN MO/NERN KS INTO
CENTRAL KS BY 21Z…WITH DEVELOPMENT NEARER DRY LINE OVER WRN TX
INTO SWRN KS LIKELY BETWEEN 21-00Z. AIR MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE ACROSS OK/SRN KS AND LIKELY SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE CAP BREAKS. WITH WEAK SURFACE WAVE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO NERN KS LATER TODAY ALONG INFLECTION OF E-W
WARM FRONT AND SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT…A MORE PERSISTENT SUPERCELL
THREAT WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES MAY EVOLVE INTO CENTRAL/ERN KS AND
WRN MO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH GRADUAL VEERING OF LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD AID IN TRANSITION TO OUTFLOW DOMINATED
STORMS/SMALL BOW STRUCTURES THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS LESS
CONFIDENCE ATTM IN PERSISTENCE OF INITIAL SUPERCELLS ELSEWHERE INTO
SWRN KS AND SWD INTO WRN TX GIVEN THE WEAKER OVERALL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR…WITH GENERAL EVOLUTION INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES.
REGARDLESS…VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS…WITH
GRADUAL EVOLUTION INTO A LARGER LINEAR MCS THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH
WILL PROGRESS ESEWD ACROSS MUCH OF OK OVERNIGHT.
…UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY…
VERY STRONG DEEP ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH N-S ORIENTED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS MN THROUGH THE DAY. SHEAR WILL BE QUITE
STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION…ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL WITHIN 45-50F SURFACE DEW POINTS. EXPECT STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER
THIS REGION…WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE EVENING
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
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