“Enemy Combatants” Held Without Trial Is Not New; Enemy Leader Tried Escape in Drag; Storm Threat


 

Gitmo "Enemy Combatants" Are Not The First Held For Years Without Trial...But I don't Think It's As Comfy As All That

Gitmo "Enemy Combatants" Are Not The First Held For Years Without Trial...But I don't Think It's As Comfy As All That

Jeff Davis in Drag?On This Date in History:  I suppose the cartoon at the top may prove irritating to some.  I think it’s funny but not necessarily representative.  But, what you see to the right is an artist’s rendering of ex-Confederate President Jefferson Davis in drag.  The story was that Davis had fled at the end of the Civil War.  After days of trying to track him down, Federal troops finally caught up with him and the word was that he was wearing a dress! That was totally at odds with the image of Southern Gentleman as chivalrous, heroic and manly.  So, the northern papers ran with it and the myth that he was trying to dress like a woman, cowering behind petticoats, was created. Though it’s not clear what the truth is, the claim from the Confederate camp was that Davis grabbed his wife’s shawl as cover for the rain that was falling as he tried to escape as he saw the men in blue approaching.  I believe the kinder story was pushed by his wife.  That seems probably closer to the truth to me except…think about it…if you are trying to escape capture by soldiers….would you really worry about gettng wet?  It’s a mystery as to whether he was dressed up like a woman or if he was worried about getting is coif wet.  But, either way, the myth lives on because it was put in print and we know the press always gets things right and never has slanted coverage.

Beauvoir Before Katrina

Beauvoir Before Katrina

Well, On This Date In 1867, Jeff Davis was released from prison after serving two years in jail, under indictment for treason. He was never tried and he was never even offered bail until May 1867. He had gained much sympathy from his travails with reports of rough treatment and being chained to the walls in his prison at Fort Monroe. 

Beauvoir After Katrina

Beauvoir After Katrina

One of his sureties was Horace Greeley, who had long been a political opponent. He had a northern lawyer volunteer his services of defense.  The case was to come to trial in late 1868 as his lawyers first tried to have the case thrown out.  It went to the Supreme Court but before it could be settled, a general amnesty was granted on Christmas Day and it was determined that the amnesty covered Davis.   Davis later refused to accept a pardon and retired to his home, Beauvoir, on the Mississippi Coast which looked pretty good as a historic site until recently.  It survived Hurricane Camille in 1969 fairly well but Hurricane Katrina did a number on it. 

Jeff Davis In Prison...Not Exactly Gitmo But Still Not Pleasant

Jeff Davis In Prison...Not Exactly Gitmo But Still Not Pleasant

 Anyway, Jeff Davis was held in prison for two years under indictment and he never was even tried.  I believe it is the 6th Amendment that provides the right to a speedy trial but the definition of speed in the case of Davis is probably closer to what the courts call “speedy” today than what was more common in the 19th Century.   I’m not certain though whether or not there was the delimma as today regarding a distinction between the treason charge being part of a military trial and the treason charge being in criminal court.  I mean, if the Union didn’t recognize the Confederacy, then he had to be considered an American citizen.  If they considered it as a war crime, then I suppose it would have been in a military tribunal.  As it was, it was neither.   But, as I’ve said before, next time you hear or read about something like this today, understand it’s happened before and the country didn’t fall apart.

SPC Categorical Severe Outlook Wed 8AM to Thu 8AM

SPC Categorical Severe Outlook Wed 8AM to Thu 8AM

Tornado Probability Wed 8AM to Thu 8AM

Tornado Probability Wed 8AM to Thu 8AM

Weather Bottom Line:  Told you Tuesday would be good.  Now for Wednesday, we have a little small wave approaching ahead of a warm front from the southwest.  But, it would appear that this will probably bypass us just to the north.  North of Louisville may get some rain and t’storms but from my chair, what I see going on is not too impressive.  Now, the GFS gets a little aggressive as does the NAM on the index front so the machines say its possible and that is why you see it on your local forecast.  Shouldn’t be that big of a deal.  But, what it does suggest is that we are at the end of the line regarding good weather.  The warm front comes through in the first part of the day along with the wave which is also a source for rain fears. 

Now, the front lifts north and we get warm and soupy.  That sets the stage for a cold front early Thursday.  The biggest risk for severe weather will be to our west as the front moves through the plains in the heat of the day.  The GFS still goes bonkers with dynamics and other factors but, given the time of day, I would think the less aggressive NAM is more likely.  Look for rain and t’storms on late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.  The SPC has the slight risk just to our West, indicating the boundary’s approach during the overnight as well as the bulk of the energy to our west moving northeast.  The one kink is that there may be some forcing to aid in storm continuance.  I think it’s worth keeping and eye on but not worth losing sleep over. 

Severe Wind Probability Wed 8AM to Thu 8AM

Severe Wind Probability Wed 8AM to Thu 8AM

The front gets hung up just to our South.  That means rain and t’storm chances must be considered for Friday as waves run along the 850 level of the warm front…with the 850 level possibly being right over the top of us depending on the slope.  The front retreats and makes for a soupy Saturday which sets the stage for frontal passage Saturday afternoon or evening which will bring back the rain and t’storm chances.  Timing will determine the level of the severe threat.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009
  
   VALID 131200Z – 141200Z
  
   …THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
  

Severe Hail Probability Wed 8AM to Thu 8AM

Severe Hail Probability Wed 8AM to Thu 8AM

VALLEY TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST TO SOUTHERN
   PLAINS…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   ON THE LARGE SCALE…PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY WILL BE TIED TO A POTENT UPPER
   TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY…AND REACH THE
   UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AS IT
   BEGINS TO TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM…A
   RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY SURGE NORTHEASTWARD
   INTO THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
   THE MIDWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
  
   …MIDWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS…
   INITIALLY…ON THE NOSE OF A RATHER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
   JET AND EASTERN FRINGE OF A PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER…SCATTERED
   TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD ACROSS THE MIDWEST…INCLUDING PORTIONS OF IA/MO/IL/INDIANA.
   AT LEAST SOME OF THESE ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL
   THROUGH THE MORNING.
  
   ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING/DEGREE OF DIURNAL
   DESTABILIZATION WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY ACTIVITY…RAPID
   DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST…WITHIN A
   NARROW PRE-COLD FRONTAL WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR ACROSS MO/SOUTHEAST IA
   INTO ADJACENT IL. PROVIDED SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING…STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD QUICKLY
   DEVELOP…WITH A MIXED MODE OF SUPERCELLS/BOWS POSSIBLE BENEATH 50
   KT MID LEVEL FLOW. ASIDE FROM SEVERE HAIL…TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG 40-50 KT FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AND AMPLE LOW
   LEVEL SRH. THIS THREAT COULD BE HEIGHTENED IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT
   AND/OR ANY REMNANT MODIFIED OUTFLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPI
   VALLEY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF MO/SOUTHEAST IA INTO IL.
   OTHERWISE…DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY ULTIMATELY INCREASE THROUGH
   THE EVENING AS STORMS CONGEAL/RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
  
   FARTHER SOUTHWEST…TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE COLD
   FRONT FROM MO/SOUTHEAST KS INTO OK…AND PERHAPS IN VICINITY OF THE
   DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE
   TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER. EVEN WITH
   WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW AT THIS LATITUDE…VERY STEEP MID LAPSE
   RATES/VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE/POTENTIALLY
   SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE
   POSSIBLE…ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT. AS AN UPSWING IN TSTM COVERAGE CONTINUES THROUGH THE
   EVENING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE…AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
   JET NOCTURNALLY INCREASES ACROSS TX…THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT
   THESE TSTMS COULD CONSOLIDATE AND GROW UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD
   PROPAGATING MCS…WITH HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS
   OK/AR INTO THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX VICINITY.
  
   …CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND FL…
   MAINLY ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING ALONG THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
   AXIS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES…AS WELL AS THE FL SEA BREEZE.
  
   ..GUYER/JEWELL.. 05/13/2009

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2 Responses

  1. I hope that the rain holds off until later Saturday. Our church is having a picnic that day.

    Jeff Davis in drag? That’s the first time I’d ever heard of that, I have to admit. It seems a bit of a stretch to me since these guys esteemed their honor above all else. It’s hard to imagine Jeff Davis thinking that putting on women’s garb and escaping would be very honorable. But, the times were desperate–who knows what he was thinking. Anyway, I vote for “no way” on that one for what little my opinion is worth. Sounds more like the northern press demonizing a hated enemy to me. Of course that was back in the day when we actually fought our enemies instead of worrying about their civil rights and blaming ourselves for doing things that drove them to hate us…but that’s another story, I suppose!

  2. You never heard that about Davis? I pointed out the flaw in Mrs. Davis’ story in that he wasn’t too busy escaping to worry about getting wet? Hmmm. It’s interesting because typically, the Southerners wrote the history which is the opposite of what usually happens when the winners get to write it. But, as part of the revisionism put out by “Lost Cause” advocates, they raised Robert E Lee to diety status and pretty much didn’t do much to rehabilitate Davis. Hence, the story was left to stand instead of a vigorous defense and supporter of the Mrs. Davis version.

    Right now, looks like Satruday afternoon. We’ll probably get a fair amount of rain here late tonight through early Thursday.

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