On This Date In History: On this date in 1970, four Kent State students protesting the Viet Nam War were killed by National Guardsman. But I don’t want to talk about that. President Lincoln was buried on this date in 1865 and David Frost interviewed President Nixon on this date in 1975, but I don’t want to talk about those items either. This one is a bit more timely as it relates to those who want to have “buy American” become the policy of the United States and to curtail NAFTA and other various free trade agreements.
On this date in 1930, 1028 economists petitioned Congress warning them against the Smoot-Hawley Act. America was reeling from the 1929 stock market crash and so President Hoover and other politicians thought it was a grand idea to put a huge tariff on imported goods with the idea that it would promote the sale of American goods domestically and help turn the economy around. The economists argued that high duties would effectively shut down foreign trade and create the exact opposite result intended. But, politicians often do what sounds good to the public rather than take the time to explain why what sounds good is often wrong-headed. Smoot-Hawley passed, foreign trade dried up and the result was the Great Depression. Nice going.
Many scholars point to the Smoot-Hawley Act as the cause of everything, though that’s probably not entirely true. However, consider that the market crashed in October 1929 just shortly after Smoot-Hawley was passed. It took months for Hoover to think about it but when he finally did sign the bill in mid 1930, then the economy really tanked and didn’t really recover until the US got into World War II. But, I really didn’t want to talk too much about all of that either…
What I really wanted to talk about was Moe. Moe Howard departed this earth on this date in 1975. He was, of course, the ring-leader of The Three Stooges. Not only was he in charge on the screen but also in real life. His real name was Harry Moses Horwitz and was born on June 19, 1897. He teamed with older brother Samuel (Shemp) and younger brother Jerome (Curly) along with Larry Fine to form the stooges, an act that had its roots in vaudeville in the early 1920’s. Larry and Moe teamed with a rotating third stooge due to health issues and the ultimate death of Curly in 1952. But the act went on in various forms through the 1960’s and continues today in various mediums.
One of my favorite stories about the stooges regards Moe’s hair. Apparently his mother was so enthralled with his hair that she wouldn’t cut it and it often fell to shoulder length. Moe grew tired of being teased at school so he and a chum got a bowl and some scissors and performed surgery on his hair, leaving him with the mop that remained his style for the rest of his life.
The Three Stooges are a remarkable part of popular culture in that it transcended time. Throughout the 20th century there are probably very few entertainment acts that one could go to a kid from any time and ask if they knew who they were and what they did. If you could transport a kid, regardless of race, ethnicity or social status, from the 1930’s to the 1990’s one of the few things they would have in common would be that they knew the funny noises the Curly made or that Moe called everyone “Porcupine.” Given the rapid rate of change in culture, society and technology over that time span, it’s really something else if you think about it. Now, there is a new movie about the Three Stooges beginning production soon with Sean Penn as Larry, Jim Carrey as Curly and Benicio Del Toro as Moe. Carrey is going to gain 40 pounds to take on the role but, it seems to me that while Penn is short, Carrey is pretty tall. I think they’re going to have to do some computer work like they did in Lord of the Rings. Not sure how tall Del Toro is but I do know that the stooges were little short guys. The only way of making this work is for the movie to be about the stooges and not show much of their acts because you can’t recreate the stooges, but you can tell their story.
If you want to read more about Moe, here is a link. It’s even got a way to buy the poster of the photo above along with other trinkets!
Weather Bottom Line: The forecast is right on track and holding steady. Monday featured predawn showers with some malingering showers throughout the morning and then generally cloudy skies for the afternoon as a wave moved off to the east along a frontal boundary to our south. As mentioned yesterday, Look for some sunshine on Tuesday and moderating temperatures as the system moves to the east…but…the front that came through will be on the way back as a warm front as an area of low pressure forms in the Southern Plains. That low will drag the boundary and the soupy air back our direction.
That means rain returns on Wednesday. The SPC woke up and put the slight risk area from generally the Ohio River and points to the southeast. The idea here is that the low tracks up along and ahead of a cold front pressing our way from the northwest. Louisville will be on the edge of the warm air clashing with the front but points to the east should be set up better for severe action as the low drags the warmer air north prior to the front’s arrival. So, it’s possible for some strong stuff here on Wednesday but my guess is that it would be more likely to our east…say from Lexington and south and east of there…as they would have gotten the warm moist air in the morning and then afternoon heating and then the cold front…while in Louisville it would be the warm air coming right about the same time as the front…however….Louisville will have the cold pocket aloft with the low moving over the top of us. That could spell some problems…and…if the low is faster than advertised then that could create some problems..hence, Louisville is in the slight risk area.
Right now it still looks like we do it all again for the end of the week with Thursday not being too bad and then another low swinging out of the southwest dragging back the warm front ahead of a cold front on Friday.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT MON MAY 04 2009
VALID 061200Z – 071200Z
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS SWWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/E TX…
…CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS SWWD TO LOWER MS VALLEY/ERN TX…
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH A
TROUGH TRACKING EWD FROM THE OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SRN/
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OH VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER…MODELS DIFFER IN THE AMPLIFICATION AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
TROUGH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…WITH THE NAM/NAMKF/ GFS
INDICATING A MORE NEGATIVE TILT TO THE SYSTEM…BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS
THE LEAST AMPLIFICATION. THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS
TRANSFER TO THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE GFS LACKING IN MUCH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT…WHILE THE NAM/NAMKF/ECMWF ALL INDICATE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.
MODELS DO TEND TO AGREE THAT A BAND OF 40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID SOUTH TO CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL SUPPORT A LARGE AREA WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. TSTMS…SOME SEVERE…SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
FROM ERN OK/NERN TX EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TO SRN APPALACHIANS.
STRONGER DESTABILIZATION /MODERATE INSTABILITY/ MAY BE LIMITED TO
THE SERN STATES WWD TO TX…ALONG AND S OF ONGOING MORNING
ACTIVITY…WHERE GREATER MOISTURE/STRONGER SURFACE HEATING WILL
OCCUR. WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY EXTEND NEWD FROM THE MID
SOUTH TO THE OH VALLEY.
INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY
EWD TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER WITH NWD EXTEND…THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT PER NAM/NAMKF ACROSS TN/KY INTO OH
VALLEY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
FARTHER SW INTO TX…MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS. SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORE
ISOLATED WITH SWWD EXTENT AS HEIGHT RISES WILL TEND TO SUPPORT A
STRONGER CAP. IF SURFACE HEATING IS STRONG ENOUGH /AROUND 90
F/…THEN SUPERCELLS WOULD BE LIKELY.
…UPPER MS VALLEY…
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EWD INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY…WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WI SWWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD
EWD ACROSS THIS REGION ATOP SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S.
DESPITE THESE FACTORS…LIMITED SURFACE HEATING DUE TO EARLY PERIOD
CLOUDINESS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTICELLS PRODUCING AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.