Kentucky Derby Forecast: (See Most Recent Update By Clicking Here) The forecast for the next several days remains pretty much in line with my previous outlook. The week leading up to Derby Day will be unsettled with a frontal boundary stalled over or near the area for the remainder of the week. There will be a risk of showers and scattered t’storms each day. On Friday there is a little wave of energy that runs up along a stalled boundary and strong storms will be possible late Friday into Friday night. It is not out of the question that the storms may be here for Oaks Day and the running of the Kentucky Oaks race itself. At this time, it’s too soon to be that accurate with the timing. However, if storms do erupt in the afternoon in the heat of the day, that will only enhance severe chances. If I recall correctly, last year there were severe storms all around the place on Oaks Day and we may see a repeat performance.
The result of the low running along the front is that, once it passes, then it will energize the boundary and start it on its way South. High pressure will build in briefly on Saturday which should make for a mild, but dry Derby Day with highs in the upper 60’s. Handicappers will have to consider the track conditions from the amount of rain the previous afternoon and night. I think it drains pretty well and any shower activity that occurs overnight should be over by Saturday morning. Check back daily for updates. See the SPC Convective Outlook Discussion Below
On This Date In History: Remember how in the Sopranos that the FBI guys were trying to get Tony to help them out to catch terrorists? Well, in real life that sort of thing has happened in war-time. In WWII it has been said that the underworld controlled the docks in New York and that the government turned to the criminal element for national security help to prevent sabotage and capture spies. Though the veracity of the claim is unclear, US Navy Lieutenant Commander Charles Radcliffe Haffenden was put in charge of New York dock security and said:
“I’ll talk to anybody, a priest, a bank manager, a gangster, the devil himself, if I can get the information I need. This is a war. American lives are at stake. ”
When the government approached the mobsters to help out Uncle Sam with domestic dockside security, bigshot Meyer Lansky, recalled not being too impressed. He said, “Everybody in New York was laughing at the way those naive Navy agents were going around the docks. They went up to men working in the area and talked out of the side of their mouths, like they had seen in the movies, asking about spies.” Now, the USS Normadie had been converted to a troop ship and on Feb. 9, 1942 it mysteriously burned while at the New York docks. The suspicion was sabotage and the event spurred both the mob and the Feds to get together for the good of the country and the story is that the government stayed out of the activities of organized crime on the docks in return for security.
While he never actually acknowledged that he and his cohorts helped out in the war effort stateside, it is notable though that Lansky never denied helping the government. Anyway, the real boss in the New York syndicate was Charles “Lucky” Luciano who had risen through the ranks of organized crime after arriving in the US as a poor immigrant from Sicily earlier in the century. He earned the “Lucky” moniker by numerous escapes from “hits” put out on him by his competition. In 1943, Luciano was serving a 30-50 year prison sentence. The allies were planning on invading Sicily but didn’t have much intel. Luciano is portrayed as having an allegiance to the United States but he also had a vendetta against Benito Mussolini who had cracked down on the mafia in Italy in the 1920’s. So, on this date in 1942 US Naval intelligence asked for Luciano’s help as the Allies attempted to invade Italy. Lucky eventually agreed and the results were spectacular. With the hundreds of informants attracted with Luciano’s help,
United States intelligence officers were able to infiltrate Italy’s naval headquarters and get all sorts of maps and documents. It is said that Luciano’s helpers were even able to convince some Italian soldiers not to fight…but they weren’t doing much of that anyway as the German army did most of the heavy lifting. Of course, the invasion was successful and the rest, as they say, is history.
The US Navy tried to cover its trail regarding the work with the underworld but eventually it came out with perhaps the greatest evidence being the inexplicable release of Luciano from prison in 1946 after serving just 10 years of his sentence. Luciano was deported to Sicily continuing his fame as being Lucky Luciano.
Storm Prediction Center Convective Outllook Discussion
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009
VALID 011200Z – 061200Z
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING FUTURE
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW NOW SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW THOUGH
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST. CONSENSUS IS THAT FINAL PIECE
OF THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR INTO THE NRN PLAINS DAY 4 AND BECOME
ABSORBED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF
LARGE VORTEX SITUATED OVER ERN CANADA. THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE
EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
DAY 4…COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND OH
VALLEY FRIDAY AS THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. MOIST AXIS WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR ACROSS THE OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEWD MIGRATING LOW
LEVEL JET. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY REGIONS WHERE MODEST
INSTABILITY BUT STRONG SWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS AND
OK WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY EXIST.
DAY 5…SATURDAY A SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
TRAILING END OF FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF TX WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN. HOWEVER…THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN A HIGHER END SEVERE
DAY 6…THOUGH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES EXIST…MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS WHERE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF DRYLINE
AND SOUTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS…BUT WILL HOLD OFF
DELINEATING AN OUTLOOK AREA GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE.
BEYOND DAY 6 PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW.