Can you Imagine if this was the Bush Administration? So, on Monday, a large low flying commercial jet was reported flying near New York City. What people saw was a 747 with two fighter jets near by. One could easily surmise that there was another attack coming and the Air Force was chasing down the plane. Or maybe some people didn’t see the fighters and only saw a 747 flying low near the Statue of Liberty, which is near the World Trade Center. The public in the area panic and starting running pell mell in all directions. At first it was reported as a “military drill.” As it turns out, it was nothing more than a photo op involving one of the planes that serves as Air Force One. And who approved it? The Obama White House! They wanted to get a photo of Air Force One with two jet fighters flying with the Statue of Liberty as a backdrop. The mayor of New York said he didn’t know about it but some reports say that the military told the city but said that they couldn’t tell anyone because it was classified! Haven’t these people ever heard of photo shop? President Obama is telling us how he is going to reign in spending, yet the White House thought it was a good idea to spend untold thousands of taxpayer dollars to get a photo and scare the very taxpayers that it are supposed to be serviing. Ask yourself…wouldn’t the outrage be deafening if this had been the Bush Administration? Yet…the media seems to be burying the story. Here’s the take from the New York Times from the NY/region page…not the front page. Compare it to the Wall Street Journal, which includes video. The story from Newsweek headline rightly says it “scared the crap” of out New Yorkers.
On This Date In History: Ever noticed how there are some people who feel like that effort or intent is more important than actual results? Symbolism over substance. Today marks such a day because, if that’s not the case, then it would be largely forgotten. On this date in 1915, World War I (then known as the Great War) raged and the International Congress of Women convened at The Hague in the Netherlands. The meeting was one of women’s rights organizations and suffrage groups from around the world. One of the main organizers, Aletta Jacobs, said in her opening remarks that the group meeting would “have its moral effect upon the belligerent countries,” The conference lasted 3 days and concluded in part “…we can no longer endure in this twentieth century of civilization that government should tolerate brute force as the only solution of international disputes.” They outlined specific ways of conflict resolution with continual mediation.
Of course, it didn’t work, not in this war or any other armed conflict. WWI went on for 3 more years. Two decades later we had World War II followed by so many other conflicts. Now, you might say that if these nations had listened to what is often referred to as the Women’s Peace Conference then these other conflicts wouldn’t have happened. But, in WWI no one was giving up an inch on the battlefield nor at the negotiating table. In 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain tried the negotiation route and he ended up sacrificing the people of Czechoslovakia for a piece of worthless paper that precluded a world war.
I mean really…I wonder if these ladies really thought 20 years after their peace conference that one could reason with Adolph Hitler? Gee…if the two sides had only talked more, wonder what would have happened? Negotiations didn’t stop Slobadan Milosevic, it was the bombs of the United States Air Force ordered dropped by President Clinton. When you extend a hand, you have to have a hammer close by. People like these women meant well. But they seem to think that having a meeting and bringing attention to themselves does anything when in fact, it does nothing. Remember, war is defined as nothing more than an extension of political will. The object of war is to get the other side to quit. When there is an impasse in talk, the only thing that is left to do is take action if its important enough. Action requires boldness. However, at the dawn of the 20th century, it became more apparent that the results of action could be devastating and so the total destruction of war became part of the equation….measuring risk vs. reward.
If you look at the Great Seal of the United States. You will find that in the talons of the Eagle, there is an olive branch as well as a cluster of 13 arrows. The most obvious representation is that the 13 arrows is for the 13 original colonies. But, the cluster of arrows and the olive branch indicates “peace through strength.” The founding fathers knew that a strong nation was one more likely to live in peace.
Pragmatism and reality doesn’t seem to disuade or convince folks though because, today there are many associations like International Congress of Women that think they are doing something, that tell people they are doing something and have people tell them they are doing something when, in fact, they accomplish nothing except headlines. Martin Luther King achieved success through action, although it was peaceful action. ..and I’m not talking about walking around with signs. The US achieved freedom through action. The Spirit and words of President Roosevelt do well here:
“It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how
the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat.”
Weather Bottom Line: The pattern looks pretty much holding true to form which is the idea of getting rain with t’storms on Tuesday as a weak front sneaks through. If you noticed the sky on Monday, the clouds had almost no vertical development. This would suggest warmer air aloft considering that we got to the mid to upper 80’s and still had no convective growth. Any jet streaks have also moved out of the area. With a strong front, then one could get enough lift to create some good storms. But, in this case, the front is weak and therefore the slope is gentle. So, it would need some help getting good lift. But with not much of a good lapse rate and no dynamics helping, its tough to get good storms. Hence, you see we have no real severe threat on Tuesday. Clouds and showers will hold the temps down to the mid 70’s.
As I had previously mentioned, the front doesn’t go far south but it appears that it will probably get far enough south to make for a decent Wednesday. Having said that, I wouldn’t call it a slam dunk. The times I got burned the worst on a forecast was when a front didn’t go far enough south. It will be close. Thursday, the front returns as a warm front and brings a risk of showers. Friday, a cold front sags down and rain chances go up again. I think that Oaks Day is iffy. I’ve seen some reports being all kinda optimistic but, here’s the problem; the cold front may get hung up over the area which would enhance rain chances. Then, there is some indication suggests that a wave of energy will run up along the front over us. Timing would be the issue. If the wave comes through in the late afternoon, strong thunderstorms are not out of the question. If it’s in the evening, then, then it may be okay. The European model wants to take the bulk of the energy well north which would put the threat in the plains. The GFS is more interested in bringing a threat to the mid to upper Mississippi Valley and part of the Ohio Valley. It seems to me its a risky bet to call for no chance for rain or a dry day almost any day this week. Good news is that for the Kentucky Derby, it still looks like that high pressure will build in long enough to make for a dry and mild Derby Day with rain then coming back for Sunday.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009
VALID 281200Z – 291200Z
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN TX…
SHORTWAVE TROUGH…CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTRY…WILL EJECT NEWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MERGES WITH A
STRONGER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT EWD THROUGH THE NERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY ON
TUE…WHILE THE WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MS/SRN PLAINS REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SWD THROUGH ORE/NRN CA
IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN STATES NEWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.
…SRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN TX…
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS NRN TX WWD IN THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE DURING THE MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE OCCURRING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT…ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
…WHERE STRONGER FORCING IS EXPECTED DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET/ISENTROPIC LIFT. COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MOISTENING ADVECTION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
HOWEVER…THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S IN NM AND 60S IN TX SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
…WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN TX BY
AFTERNOON…AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG NWD DRIFTING E-W
ORIENTED FRONT…REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONNECTION AND IN
MOISTENING UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS ERN NM. VEERING WINDS IN THE
LOWER 3KM COMBINED WITH MODERATE 40 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KT AND SUPERCELLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK MOST
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL…STRONG TURNING IN THE LOWER 1-2 KM AND A
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FAVORS SOME TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN
ERN NM AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
OVERNIGHT…ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD IN ZONE OF
STRONG WARM ADVECTION…THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS.
…MID MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND…
THOUGH CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID MS/TN AND INTO THE OH VALLEYS IN THE MORNING…WEAK LAPSE RATES
SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE. IN THE NERN STATES
…LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND CONVERGENCE MAY
SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY
…MODERATE/STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS INDICATE A THREAT OF
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 18Z-01Z.