People Die But Dreams Don’t; Storms Sunday


king

On This Date in History:  If you don’t know what happened on this date in 1968.  You should.  It’s one of those times where one wonders what would have been had it not happened.   Here is the text and video of Martin Luther King Jr and his most memorable speech on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial which has come to be known as the “I Have a Dream Speech”

SPC Severe Weather Outlook (Convective Outlook) For Sunday

SPC Severe Weather Outlook (Convective Outlook) For Sunday

Weather Bottom Line:  Short and sweet.  Beautiful weather for Saturday.  Chilly start will lead to highs in the upper 60’s.  Sunday, we will have a brief opportunity to bring back some moisture.  A strong area of low pressure will track almost over us.   While the instability may be marginal due to such a short time to bring back the warm moist air, what little there is as well as strong winds aloft should be sufficient to provide enough lift to create some strong storms on Sunday afternoon.  We will be in the upper 60’s to around 70 prior to the storms arrival and winds will pick up.  Hail and gusty winds appear to be the biggest threat as on Friday my analysis was that the winds may be somewhat unidirectional.  Having said that, the proximity of the upper energy does leave one with the idea that an isolated twister could not be ruled out.  Snow is still possible on Monday but the ground being so warm really limits any accumulation.  Enjoy your Saturday while you can.

 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 AM CDT SAT APR 04 2009
  
   VALID 051200Z – 061200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VLY…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SERN STATES…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   UPR LOW CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION IS FCST TO MOVE
   TO THE CNTRL PLNS BY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DEAMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST
   ON SUNDAY.  ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE OVER THE MID-MS VLY AT 12Z SUNDAY
   WILL DEVELOP ENE ALONG I-70 SUNDAY AFTN…THEN INTO THE LWR GRTLKS
   REGION BY 12Z MONDAY.  TO THE S OF THE LOW…A CDFNT WILL SWEEP SEWD
   CLEARING THE OH VLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE APLCN CREST/SERN
   STATES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. 
  
   …OH VLY…
   NARROW RIBBON OF UPR 40S/LWR 50S SFC DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT NWD
   AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/CDFNT SUNDAY BENEATH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
   /H5 TEMPS AOB MINUS 18 DEG C/.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
   INSTABILITY BY SUNDAY AFTN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG OF MLCAPE
   LIKELY FROM SERN IL/CNTRL IND SWD INTO MIDDLE TN.  RATHER VIGOROUS
   ASCENT/DCVA ASSOCD WITH THE UPR SYSTEM WILL ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO
   DEVELOP INVOF THE SFC LOW/CDFNT BY LATE MORNING.  ACTIVITY WILL
   PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A BKN LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL…DMGG WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.  STORMS WILL
   PROGRESS ENE TOWARD SWRN OH/ERN KY/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AFTER DARK
   WITH SVR THREATS DIMINISHING WITH EWD EXTENT. 
  
   …SERN STATES…
   LLVL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE SERN STATES ON SUNDAY
   RESULTING IN FAIRLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION.  MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE
   FLUX WILL LIKELY YIELD ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS… GRADUALLY EVOLVING
   JUST E OF NEW ORLEANS EARLY SUNDAY…THEN EXPANDING ENE INTO SRN
   GA/NRN FL SUNDAY EVE.  THE INITIAL STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
   OWING TO STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING
   SUB-TROPICAL JET CORE.  AFTN SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
   OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN GULF CSTL REGION AS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
   BACKBUILDS INTO THE RICHER LLVL THETA-E AMIDST MEAN WSWLY FLOW
   THROUGH THE COLUMN.  THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE ALL FACETS OF SVR
   WEATHER…INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG THE MARINE FRONT.
  
   MEANWHILE…AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGGING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
   UPR TROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WILL BOOST LOW/MID-LVL FRONTOGENETIC
   FORCING FROM THE TN VLY SWWD INTO SERN MS/WRN AL.  IT IS UNCLEAR HOW
   THE GULF CST TSTMS MAY MODULATE THE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS
   AREA…ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VEERED PRE-FRONTAL FLOW EXPECTED.
   NONETHELESS…INCREASING UPR FLOW AND MASS CONVERGENCE WILL AT LEAST
   YIELD A BKN BAND OF TSTMS INVOF THE CDFNT.  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
   SEWD INTO GA/SC AND NRN FL BY 12Z MONDAY WITH RISKS FOR DMGG WIND
   GUSTS…HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.
  
   ..RACY.. 04/04/2009

 

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