On This Date in History: If you don’t know what happened on this date in 1968. You should. It’s one of those times where one wonders what would have been had it not happened. Here is the text and video of Martin Luther King Jr and his most memorable speech on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial which has come to be known as the “I Have a Dream Speech”
Weather Bottom Line: Short and sweet. Beautiful weather for Saturday. Chilly start will lead to highs in the upper 60’s. Sunday, we will have a brief opportunity to bring back some moisture. A strong area of low pressure will track almost over us. While the instability may be marginal due to such a short time to bring back the warm moist air, what little there is as well as strong winds aloft should be sufficient to provide enough lift to create some strong storms on Sunday afternoon. We will be in the upper 60’s to around 70 prior to the storms arrival and winds will pick up. Hail and gusty winds appear to be the biggest threat as on Friday my analysis was that the winds may be somewhat unidirectional. Having said that, the proximity of the upper energy does leave one with the idea that an isolated twister could not be ruled out. Snow is still possible on Monday but the ground being so warm really limits any accumulation. Enjoy your Saturday while you can.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SAT APR 04 2009
VALID 051200Z – 061200Z
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VLY…
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SERN STATES…
UPR LOW CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION IS FCST TO MOVE
TO THE CNTRL PLNS BY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DEAMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST
ON SUNDAY. ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE OVER THE MID-MS VLY AT 12Z SUNDAY
WILL DEVELOP ENE ALONG I-70 SUNDAY AFTN…THEN INTO THE LWR GRTLKS
REGION BY 12Z MONDAY. TO THE S OF THE LOW…A CDFNT WILL SWEEP SEWD
CLEARING THE OH VLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE APLCN CREST/SERN
STATES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
NARROW RIBBON OF UPR 40S/LWR 50S SFC DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT NWD
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/CDFNT SUNDAY BENEATH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
/H5 TEMPS AOB MINUS 18 DEG C/. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
INSTABILITY BY SUNDAY AFTN WITH A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG OF MLCAPE
LIKELY FROM SERN IL/CNTRL IND SWD INTO MIDDLE TN. RATHER VIGOROUS
ASCENT/DCVA ASSOCD WITH THE UPR SYSTEM WILL ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO
DEVELOP INVOF THE SFC LOW/CDFNT BY LATE MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A BKN LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL…DMGG WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS WILL
PROGRESS ENE TOWARD SWRN OH/ERN KY/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AFTER DARK
WITH SVR THREATS DIMINISHING WITH EWD EXTENT.
LLVL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE SERN STATES ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN FAIRLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION. MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE
FLUX WILL LIKELY YIELD ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS… GRADUALLY EVOLVING
JUST E OF NEW ORLEANS EARLY SUNDAY…THEN EXPANDING ENE INTO SRN
GA/NRN FL SUNDAY EVE. THE INITIAL STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
OWING TO STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING
SUB-TROPICAL JET CORE. AFTN SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN GULF CSTL REGION AS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
BACKBUILDS INTO THE RICHER LLVL THETA-E AMIDST MEAN WSWLY FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE ALL FACETS OF SVR
WEATHER…INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG THE MARINE FRONT.
MEANWHILE…AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGGING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPR TROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WILL BOOST LOW/MID-LVL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING FROM THE TN VLY SWWD INTO SERN MS/WRN AL. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW
THE GULF CST TSTMS MAY MODULATE THE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS
AREA…ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VEERED PRE-FRONTAL FLOW EXPECTED.
NONETHELESS…INCREASING UPR FLOW AND MASS CONVERGENCE WILL AT LEAST
YIELD A BKN BAND OF TSTMS INVOF THE CDFNT. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SEWD INTO GA/SC AND NRN FL BY 12Z MONDAY WITH RISKS FOR DMGG WIND
GUSTS…HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.