This Date In History
In 1801, Charles Wilson Peale unearthed a previously un-named prehistoric skeleton. It became known as a Mastadon but, at the time, it got the nickname Mammoth for its size. So, the term mammoth became popular in early 19th century America to describe something very large. In 1802, President Thomas Jefferson received a “mammoth” 1200 pound hunk of cheese from a bunch of Baptist from Massachusettes in appreciation for his advocation of religious tolerance. Remember, the Baptists weren’t always welcome in many corners of early American society, but they had been an effective thorn in the side of the Brits in Colonial America, particularly in places like Williamsburg.
In any event, on this date in 1804, Jefferson attended a public party in the Senate that featured a “mammoth loaf” of bread. The big ole loaf of bread was baked to go along with what was left of the two year old cheese….and a giant portion of roast beef….and an ample supply of alcohol. The occasion was to show support for Jefferson’s use of the US Navy to go after the Barbary Pirates. The Barbary Coast was an area of Northern Africa which was supposed to be part of the Ottoman Empire but was really controlled by local powers in Tunis, Algiers and Tripoli. It was a region controlled by Islamists. They had been impairing US commerce so Jefferson sent the US Navy to enforce and, if need be attack, the bad guys. Numerous battles ensued. One note of interest….this military action of the United States against these Islamic states was funded by Congress, but was an undeclared military action by the United States that lasted
for some 4 years. Those who think the Iraq war or the current conflict in Afghanistan, or Vietnam or Korea were unprecedented need to look more at Thomas Jefferson’s presidency. There are differences but the similiarities are worth noting, especially when one looks at Iraq. Oh yes..its also worth noting that written observations say that the event with the “mammoth loaf” and the leftover “mammoth cheese” turned into a drunken, noisy affair…something some folks might say has been going on in the Senate ever since. President Jefferson walked up, pulled out his pockeknife and sliced the first piece of bread and the party was on. The booze was flowing. The war wasn’t over but the party went on anyway.
Now, there had been a big victory on February 16, 1804 in which a daring plan was undertaken when the Americans went into Tripoli Harbor and stealthily boarded the captured American Frigate Philadelphia. The 74 volunteers were led by Lt. Stephen Decatur. The group was successful in torching the Philadelphia but not without a fight. During the hand-to-hand fighting, Botswain’s Mate Reuben James was seriously wounded but still managed to get himself in between and enemy combatant with a very large sword and the group’s commander, Decatur. James literally put
his life on the line to save the commander. James eventually recovered from his injuries and served in the Navy for more than an additional 3 decades. That is why there is a frigate currently in the US Navy called the USS Reuben James (FF 57). His story is one in US Navy lore to exemplify the heroic tradition of the service. And the action taken by Decatur and his entrourage was called “the most daring act of the age” by British Admiral Lord Nelson. So, it was a pretty big deal and its the only reason I can think of to justify such a bash by the Senate…that is of course unless one wants to discount the possibility that the Senators just wanted an excuse to party down. Because, it certainly wasn’t because of the war…it wasn’t over for another year and really wasn’t completely settled until 1815.
Weather Bottom Line:
I’m tempted to break out Colonel Klink but its too early to be offering any “I told you so” comments, especially since its a shade off on timing. But, the above depiction is the SPC Convective Outlook for Friday March 27 to Saturday March 28. Notice how far north they have taken the severe risk area…all the way to Louisville. Now, the reason it doesn’t encompass Loiusville is due to timing. The next day the region is to our east. Hence, when the storms may come over us, it will be well into the night and so the timing issue arises. But, we still will have a risk of t’storms either late Friday or, if the system slows a bit, then a better chance on Saturday. Having said all of that….I would plan on rain on Friday night with possible storms and also look for rain with storms on Saturday and the data seems to support pretty good looking activity through Saturday afternoon. I would not be surprised to see the SPC make a further revision in their slight risk area. Just something to keep in mind. Otherwise, Thursday looks damp the first part of the day and somewhat coolish in the low to mid 60’s. Friday should be decent with highs in the mid to upper 60’s.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009
VALID 271200Z – 281200Z
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX EWD INTO TN VALLEY
AND CNTRL GULF STATES…
A SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY THREE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 100+ KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND
INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE HIGH-LEVELS…BETWEEN CYCLONICLY
CURVED POLAR JET STREAK AND SUBTROPICAL JET SITUATED ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THE NET RESULT WILL BE INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SPREADING EWD THROUGH OK/TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN THE LOW LEVELS…LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS BEING THE
MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPEST SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS HAVE INDICATED
FAIRLY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO FOLLOWED
FOR THE SURFACE PATTERN. AS SUCH…IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP FROM N-CNTRL TX ENEWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX BEFORE
MOVING MORE NNEWD TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS AND OH RIVERS.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WHILE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TOWARD THE OH RIVER.
…ERN TX EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES…
…POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FRI AND FRI
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A RATHER BROAD WARM SECTOR
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FRI FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 60S TO PERHAPS AROUND
70 ALONG THE COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES…RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY
TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FRI MORNING BOTH WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND N OF
WARM FRONT FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT AS A BAND OF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM
OVERSPREADS FRONTAL ZONE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE ALONG
COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE
MODE…DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY…AND WHETHER ANY WEAKER
IMPULSES WILL PRECEDE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH…POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE EVENT. HOWEVER…SHOULD A WARM
SECTOR ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO THE 25/00Z GFS ACTUALLY DEVELOP /I.E.
MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J PER KG AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KT/…THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO EVENT FRI AND FRI
A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WILL BE INTRODUCED ATTM DUE TO THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES. HOWEVER…SHOULD MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENTLY FORECAST
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS…AN UPGRADE TO AT LEAST MODERATE
RISK WILL BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.