Electoral College Winner is Loser; Severe Threat?


Quincy Adams is Lucky Andy Didn't turn to the pistols to resolve the electoral college SNAFU in 1824

Quincy Adams is Lucky Andy Didn't turn to the pistols to resolve the electoral college SNAFU in 1824

 

On This Date in History:  George W. Bush was not the first son of a president to become president.  Benjamin Harrison was the grandson of William Henry Harrison but John Quincy Adams was the son of the second president, John Adams.  But, like the election of GW Bush, the election of the first presidential son did not come without a hitch.  In the case of GW Bush, we had Supreme Court intervention while John Quincy Adams looked even higher. 

When a Win is Not A Win

When a Win is Not A Win

Close But Not Enough for Old Hickory

Close But Not Enough for Old Hickory

Adams did not have a majority of the electoral votes. In fact, Andrew Jackson had more of the popular vote and more electoral votes.  But, neither man had a majority of the electoral college so the election went to the House of Representatives.  How did that happen?  Well, the two party system wasn’t too developed at that time and a whole bunch of people took the Republican mantra.  Remember, this is way before the birth of the modern Republican Party just prior to the Civil War.  In fact, a bunch of state legislatures disdained the slate of candidates and nominated favorite sons.  At one point ,there were 17 candidates but by election day, the field had narrowed to four.

Jackson took the most votes in the popular election as the sitting Senator from Tennessee and war hero.  His opponents said he was a hot head who was  semi-literate who was good for a bar room fight but not fit for national office.  Adams had the second most votes and was the sitting Secretary of State.  He was quite qualified through experience and education, but was considered pretty bland and boring, lacking in any human warmth.  The guy in third was William H. Crawford who had been treasury secretary and collected a bunch of political debts that were redeemed for support for the nation’s top office.  He was so over-the-top with political appointments and trading that President James Monroe threatened him with a pair of fire tongs in a heated discussion on the subject.  Kentucky’s Henry Clay was fourth but he was eliminated by the 12th Amendment that said only the top 3 vote getters could be considered. 

Steve Could Say "no" to Dan and Hank, But Not God

Steve Could Say "no" to Dan and Hank, But Not God

On this date in 1824, the vote was to take place in the House and Adams figured he needed to win on the first ballot if he were to win because after that, Jackson’s popular support would wash over the decks.  John Quincy was certain that he had locked up 12 states, which left him one short.  But, New York stood tied.  If he could take the New York delegation, then he would be the president.  Apparently, Henry Clay was in the Adams camp because he counseled that an old and wealthy landholder who was a representative in the New York legislature was most likely to be swayed.  His name was Stephen Van Rensselaer III and he was led to the chambers of the Speaker of the House where he felt the full force of persuasion than none other than Clay himself and Daniel Webster.  Who could turn that down?  Van Rensselaer that’s who.  Guess he owed a lot to Crawford because thats whom he was supposedly backing.  As it turns out, Webster and Clay had some effect because after they left, the old man bowed his head and prayer, asking for guidance.  When he opened his eyes, the first thing he saw was a piece of paper with the name of John Quincy Adams.  It was possibly a discarded ballot but Van Rensselaer accepted it as Divine intervention and while he could deny Webster and Clay, he could not deny the will of God.  He took the slip of paper, put it in the ballot box and John Quincy Adams became the 6th President of the United States.   While Bush the younger went on to win a second term, Adams the younger lost his re-election bid but went on to serve in the House of Representatives until 1848 when he was literally carried out of the legislative body after suffering a stroke on February 21.

 

Note the lack of CAPE on the NAM Wed Evening but elevated Helicity and SWEAT Index in our area

Note the lack of CAPE on the NAM Wed Evening but elevated Helicity and SWEAT Index in our area

SPC Severe Feb 10-11 7am-7am

SPC Severe Feb 10-11 7am-7am

Weather Bottom Line: 

The front on Sunday did not penetrate too far so the colder air never really got here even though our winds were out of the northwest.  So, it was a nice day.  Sue me.  Clouds will be on the increase as a low swings through the flow out of the Southwest and into the plains.  I would think that we’d see temps in the mid 60’s both Monday and Tuesday but clouds and rain chances may keep a lid on the mercury.  Rain chances will probably be in your local forecast, regardless of what channel you watch, from say Monday night through Wednesday night.  The question will be the biggest threat for t’storms and if we get strong storms or not.  The second storm system that swings around through the flow from the Southwest will be closer to us than the first one.  We will be relatively warm and humid and the wind profile may be decent.  Question is timing.  The NAM has the best dynamics on Wednesday evening.  The GFS has the best dynamics on Wednesday morning. 

SPC Severe Probability Feb 10-11 7am to 7am

SPC Severe Probability Feb 10-11 7am to 7am

Now, the GFS has a Sweat Index in excess of 500 and my observation over the years that, regardless of whatever the other indices say, a Sweat Index over 500 every time that I can recall results in something.  The NAM Sweat index is high but not as high as the GFS.  Both indicate a good bit of helicity as well but neither has much in the way of CAPE.  That is an index of potential energy and there just isnt much to write home about.  The early morning entry of the GFS has a timing issue as well but since we’re talking about wind dynamics with that, I suppose that is not as important.  Bottom line is we do no have a consensus.  The risk of severe weather is marginal at best though some pretty good rumblers with gusty winds are possible.  We’ll have to work out the timing difference later.  The temps following the storm will be chillier…closer to seasonable.  The GFS wants to toss out about a half inch of snow for next Saturday.

The boys at the Storms Prediction Center have picked up on this by kinda splitting the difference.  You can see they have the slight risk for Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning to our west but has the dreaded 5% chance for our area.  A broader, less specific area for “day 4” is for Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.  So, they have their bases covered in case one or both of the model solutions is correct.  I’ve put their discussion that goes along with the “day 4” map below:

Feb 11-12 7am to 7pm

Feb 11-12 7am to 7pm

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0359 AM CST SUN FEB 08 2009
  
   VALID 111200Z – 161200Z
  
   …SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
   APPALACHIANS THIS COMING WEDNESDAY…
  
   MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A REGIONAL
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
   CARRY OVER INTO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY.  MREF MEMBERS SUGGEST A
   HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR A PRE-FRONTAL TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE…CHARACTERIZED BY MID 5OS SURFACE DEW POINTS…TO EXTEND
   AS FAR NORTH AS THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER CONFLUENCE AT 12Z
   WEDNESDAY.  AND…THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
   MAINTAIN A SQUALL LINE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER…PERHAPS AS
   FAR AS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS…AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
   DAY.  STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY
   STRONG MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW /GREATER THAN 50 KT/ CAPABLE OF
   SUPPORTING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS…EVEN IF THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES BECOME DECREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH
   EASTWARD PROGRESSION.  SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY…STORM
   DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BECOME MORE DISCRETE IN THE
   PRESENCE OF WEAKER MID-LEVEL FORCING/GREATER INHIBITION.
   BUT…PRE-FRONTAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
   FOR SUPERCELLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST.
  
   THEREAFTER…UPSTREAM WAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE PROMINENT BELT
   OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. MAY SUPPORT
   ADDITIONAL RISKS FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS COMING WEEK INTO NEXT
   WEEKEND.  BUT…THE PREDICTABILITY OF THESE SYSTEMS IS TOO LOW TO
   CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE ADDITIONAL AREAS…DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY
   LARGE SPREAD AMONG MODEL DATA AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE.

4 Responses

  1. Wow. How far we have fallen as a nation. Mr. Rensselaer would be ridiculed by the media and would likely have to resign if he were living in this time and it was known that he sought God’s counsel in his decision. That seems to have been the norm during that time, that is, our leaders seeking and desiring the guidance of the Almighty in leading this nation. Mr. Rensselaer was not a mindless idiot; he had made his decision by his own logical process but was not afraid to defer to the higher power when he saw what his will was (chances are he was afraid NOT to listen). Whether or not you agree with that decision making process (I do, by the way) I think that it is probably more correct to say that Mr. Rensselaer and the people of his time considered the consequences of their actions not only from a temporal standpoint but also, and perhaps more importantly, from an eternal standpoint knowing that they would be held accountable for their actions by an Almighty God. There is certainly nothing wrong with this consideration, in my opinion–it certainly beats looking at what the polls say!

    So, do we have any colder weather coming up at the end of the mionth? It would be nice to have one more good snow but PLEASE no more ice!

  2. Beyond 7 days, its really guesswork. For the near term, the pattern seems to be set but all that has to happen is for a ridge to build again in the long wave pattern out west and that would create a trof here and cold air comes back down. Then you get the subtropical jet in phase with lows coming up from the NW Gulf or east Texas and presto…there you get your snow. I think you’ll need to call on Mr. Rensselaer’s counsel for anything more substanative. To quote our President…its above my pay grade.

  3. If Jon Meacham’s book about Andrew Jackson is made into a movie, John Kerry should play the former president. Look at that picture and just about any other one of AJ and tell me, isn’t there a resemblance? The bonus for Kerry would be that although he didn’t get to be the actual president, he gets to play one on TV.

    Also, that picture of Stephen Van Rensselaer III reminds me of former Ohio Congressman James Traficant.

  4. Traficant was the greatest bit of entertainment that the Congress has had in years. I loved his “beam me up Scotty” at the end of every floor speech. Wonder if he was that entertaining in jail? I suspect that Andy had more personality in his finger than Kerry has in his whole body. He may resemble him physically, but I doubt if he could carry on the role. Too back Chuck Heston isn’t still around. I think he played Andy a couple of time..one of which was “The Buccaneer” with Yul Brynner as Jean Laffite.

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