Real Independence Only Half Captured; A Cold Story


 On This Date in History: The independence of this nation was finally ratified on January 14, 1784. The Battle of Yorktown was fought in 1781. The Colonial Army, under General George Washington combined with French forces under General Rochambeau, boxed the British Army in at Yorktown with the French Navy blocking their retreat in the Chesapeake Bay. British General Lord Cornwallis surrendered and the war was over. But, it took until November of 1783 for a final treaty to be signed. This was called the Second Treaty of Paris because there had already been a Treaty of Paris to end the 7 years war. The painting above by Benjamin West was supposed to be of the signing ceremony…but its unfinished because the sore loser British delegation refused to show up and pose. So, its the most famous unfinished painting in history. It wasn’t until this date in 1784 that the treaty was ratified by the United States Congress.

So even though we declared independence in 1776 and finished off the crown in 1781 and a treaty was signed in late 1783 and the last British troops finally left shortly thereafter, Congress didn’t get around to putting the official stamp on the end of hostilities until January of 1784…and Congress has been dragging its feet ever since.

 

GFS Snow Total Thru Midday Sunday

GFS Snow Total Thru Midday Sunday

Even The NAM Fri AM near 0

Even The NAM Fri AM near 0

Weather Bottom Line: One of my regular viewers, Eric, claims that I am out on a limb by myself regarding the duration of the cold spell.  I would say that my limb is getting larger and that others will join.  In fact, I saw one outlet that changed their weekend forecast to keep us at or below freezing.  It will be interesting to see if we get above freezing for a time on Wednesday.  I’m not buying it and the 18Z NAM is even only going to 33 or so.  I say nyet.  Won’t really matter though because if we do, it won’t last and will be largely an academic because the mercury will fall rapidly thereafter.   I’m looking at the 18Z Tue WRF and it even has the 540 Thickness line way out to our West and way South at 6Z Saturday.  Even though that there is another strong short wave diving down through the flow, I suggest that even with this model that has been the warmest outlyer, it will be difficult for that 540 line to get to our north or east. 

NAM Midday Fri less than 15

NAM Midday Fri less than 15

Now, the previously mentioned short wave diving down, I suspect that will represent our best chance for some decent snow for Sunday or so.  It’s too far out to say with any certainty but right now the 12Z ECMWF wants to to take the surface low almost right over the top of Louisville. Typically, the best snow would be to the north of the system so that’s pretty close.  Now, the CMC and the GFS prefers to keep the parent low well to the north with upper support swinging through over us.  That scenario would squeeze out some flurries or light snow but nice accumulations I would think would not be likely.  The GFS is actually advertising another short through the flow for Monday or Tuesday that would bring another chance for snow. 

NAM Fri Eve Still Below 15

NAM Fri Eve Still Below 15

So, the song remains the same…several opportunities for light snow from time to time but really nothing huge.  The story is the cold.  There is some indication that the big ridge out west will not really move but instead broaden in breadth.  This is the first indication that I have seen for a change and would mean warming conditions by next Wednesday.  I still think snow will be minimal. I had previously suggested 1-2 inches maybe at best over 84 hours with never that much on the ground.  Well, Monday night the temps were generally above freezing during the best precip, which wasn’t much.  Temperatures were in the 20’s by midday but only a few flurries fell.  So, the moisture will be limited ,the tracks of the clippers will most likely be too far north and we therefore can expect the cold to be the story.  Still think a low close to zero with some perhaps below zero on Friday morning…teens Thursday and Friday will be the best we can do…some folks perhaps in the low to mid teens.

4 Responses

  1. I am honored to be mentioned by name in your blog, Mr. Symon! That’s as close as I’ll come to my “fifteen minutes of fame”, in all likelihood.

    It does seem like most are coming around closer to what you were saying today. Your buddies at WLKY seem to be lining right up with you. I never should have doubted you! Now, can we just have some SNOW??? It would be nice but I suppose it would be best to be happy with whatever the good Lord sends.

  2. Don’t slap me on the back too soon….I see at 3pm we’re at 38 at the airport. So, we went above freezing for a few hours Wednesday…whoops.

  3. Yes, that’s true but I don’t think that anyone was expecting it to be as sunny today as it has been. I guess it takes these little slips to keep one humble, right?

    The NWS Great Lakes Sector radar is showing a pretty decent area of precipitation moving down to us. Do you think any of that is actually hitting the ground?

  4. Probably some but don’t break out the sleds. This set up is not one that is conducive for us getting some good snow. What we really needed was for this pattern to be in place but not so far south. Then, you’d have to have the subtropical jet, which is way down in Florida now, running up from the SE Texas coast up toward, say Charleston West VA. You get a low running up that jet and it tosses a bunch of moisture over us in the cold air. That is when we get a big snow. This NW to SE flow makes it so that systems have to bring their own moisture and by the time they get here, they’re kinda tapped out and we’re too far away to really benefit from the Great Lakes.

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