Forecast is going as expected…Tuesday the sun comes out but it will be tough to get out of the upper 30’s and low 40’s. Wednesday, we get to the low to mid 50’s but clouds and rain come back for Wednesday evening. Then we are in the low to mid 20’s at night and mid to upper 30’s into the first half of the weekend. If anyone tells you there is snow in the forecast, remember this past Monday. There was a lot of talk and not much reality. The same would be the case….maybe a flake or two on Saturday or even potentially early Thursday morning but nothing worth talking about. Our average high from Nov. 15 until now has been 43 degrees. That is what we expect in January. I’m afraid to open my gas and electric bill.<meta name=”blogcatalog” content=”9BC9289454″ />
I recently got an email from a gentleman who urged me to click on a link regarding new evidence about chemtrails. He had some experience with aviation and so I gave it a shot. It was a link associated with a guy from New Mexico to whom everyone who writes or calls me wants me to link to. Yet, most of these well intentioned people can never really give me any explanations themselves. In the most recent case, I was given the often told tale that contrails do not last a long time but chemtrails do. When I presented the reason why that is a mistaken premise, the gentleman politely told me that he didn’t agree and that was that. I have nothing for today so I am giving a replay of two posts on the subject. This is pretty long..probably too long…but it provides my questions that never get answers and then an explanation about clouds and meteorological references from real live professors whose work is used by mainstream meteorological institutions across the nation.
I beg you folks out there to please give me some good answers to the questions I ask. I’m not saying that the idea is necessarily wrong, but I am saying that I have yet to get reasonable answers. So, here they are….have fun if you have time.
From what I understand, the idea is that someone is spraying the atmosphere with harmful chemicals. I have yet to have a conspiracist tell me who these people are. They will not say its the government or the military or even a foreign entity. But, its someone. They claim that the evidence is visual, that the contrails we see in the sky are really chemicals being sprayed out. They say that real contrails disappear after 60 seconds and that these long lasting trails, that spread out widely are not normal and not like they used to be. They also claim the criss-crossing pattern is not normal air-traffic and offer more evidence.
I have yet to find any credible, substanative evidence to support any of the claims I’ve pointed out or others. On websites there are statistics cited and evidence presented yet there is nothing to go on but the author’s word. I do know that callers have never been able to answer a few questions, nor have I found the answers on a website. Here are four:
1) If this is the effect of something more than just routine aviation, who is doing this and why? (the answer I often get is “that’s for you to find out.)
2)If they are spraying Louisville, why do they do it at 25k to 35k feet? Upper level winds would take those particles in all liklihood to the Atlantic ocean. I offer that there is a reason why crop dusters fly at 30 feet off the plants and not 30,000 feet. (The counter to this is that the chemtrails are low level…. I took the bait last weekend and I’d estimate 25,000 feet)
3)If the conspirators are in this country, how do they prevent themselves from being affected by the spray of the general population.
4)If the trails are indeed sinister “chemtrails”, then the fact that the clouds remain visible means that the particles are indeed suspended at that height and are not descending.(the response typically is verfication that the person has no fundamental understanding of thermodynamics or even simple items such as condensation nuclei)
Now the pictures above are supposedly evidence. It is suggested that air traffic controllers do not allow aircraft to fly on the same plane at the same altitude. I am not certain of the veracity of that claim. In my mind, there is also no possible way to tell with the naked eye the varing levels of the trails from a singular point directly below. Nevertheless, this photo and others seem to show that the crossing trail is above the others. Typically, if you are skeptical of the claims you are called closed minded or riduculed as being part of the societal ostriches with your head in the sand.
Here’s the bottom line: The internet is extremely limited as a research tool. Teach your kids to go to the library and learn library skills. Just because someone makes a claim on the internet that a photo is one thing or a piece of prose is indeed “historical fact”, doesn’t mean its true. Verify the facts with credible sources! I had claims also made to me that the 16th Amendment was fraudulently passed so the income tax is unlawful, that the IRS is headquartered in Puerto Rico and that the Federal Reserve is a fraud, illegal and unconstitutional. Certain aspects of the claims were valid….just enough to make someone think everything stated was true when in fact, the totality of the evidence suggests otherwise.
Its the old adage….don’t believe everything you read! Especially on the internet….which means you should read my work with a skeptics eye. However, I challenge you to offer a different viewpoint or point out errors..in fact I encourage it. The internet is a great place to exchange ideas but its a lousy place to hang your hat on.
Feel free to do a search on chemtrails and find out what is out there on the world wide web. Many of the sites you will find mention Art Bell. Find out of there is any real academic support for this. See what you think. Here is a link from one of the main proponents….from New Mexico.
Here’s a link from a guy who says its the military….at least he has a villain.
(here is a follow up post after readers suggested that “steam” came off jet engines which of course Mr. Watt would have been happy to know…it was obvious we needed a review of basic atmospheric physics and condensation, evaporation and sublimation)
I can tell that we need a little background about condensation and cloud formation if we want to get a handle on this contrail caper. Let’s begin with the definition of a contrail according to the National Audubon Society Field Guide to North American Weather:
“a straight, narrow line of ice crystal clouds produced by flying aircraft. Condensation trails(contrails) may occur in several short segments at various angles to each other, depending on flight paths.”
Contrails are really nothing but man-man cirrus clouds. Like cirrus clouds, contrails are found at high levels of the atmosphere, generally 25,000 to 35,000 feet in a nearly saturated environment where air temperatures are very cold…typically colder than 25 degrees below zero Farenheit. When an aircraft, jet or turbo prop, flies through such an environment, the engine exhaust emits not steam but water droplets. Those water droplets freeze into ice crystals. If the environment is very dry, however, evaporation or sublimation occurs and there is no cloud or trail formation. When a trail of clouds is formed, it will last as long as it is in a nearly saturated environment. If it is marginally saturated then the trail will disappear relatively rapidly. If it is nearly saturated, then it will last. This type of phenomena has been recorded and noted since the advent of higher altitude aviation, most prominently in high altitude bombing by the Allies in WWII with such aircraft as the B-17 Flying Fortress or the B-29 Superfortress. In both cases, long lasting contrails allowed the enemy to pinpoint the aviator’s location so contrails were not a bomber pilot’s friend.
A warming environment or one with dry air intrusion will cause the trail to dissipate through sublimation. A lowering of temperatures or one with moisture intrusion increases condensation and therefore more clouds, not less.
Again, the Aududon Society explains: “When the the air at the aircraft level is near saturation, a contrail may last a long time. When they start to become diffuse, contrails can spread to form a major cloud cover…The amount of air traffic over a region also strongly influences the occurrence of contrails. An increased number of contrails, together with portions of other stratiform clouds moving into an area, may indicate a local atmospheric change due to an advancing weather system.”
I thought about this when I was at the Bats’ game last night. I looked up and saw a jet with a contrail going east while another crossed the trail behind it going south. The trails made a T-formation. Above those two trails was another jet with a trail that lasted for maybe 15 seconds behind it. The environment in which it flew was way too dry to produce a lasting cloud while below, the cold atmosphere had more moisture. At about 2000 feet, there was a SW Airlines plane making a final approach to Standiford Field. There was no contrail. Its not cold enough to produce contrails at low levels and the atmosphere was nothing close to saturation necessary to form other cloud types.
Just remember, while sometimes the simplest explanation is the most reliable, more often the truth is not found on the surface but instead requires careful analysis and thought. Calling someone names does not make them wrong nor change the facts.
For more insight, see the following reputiable sources:
Holton, James R. An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology. 2nd edition (London: Academic
Press Inc, 1979)
Battan, Louis J. Fundamentals of Meteorology. (Englewood, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1979)
McIlveen, Robin. Basic Meteorology: A Physical Outline. (Berkshire, UK: Van Norstrand
Company Ltd., 1986).