40% Chance of Being Too Warm, 60% Not; Spectacular Canada Meteor Video; Young Man Tragically Commits Suicide Online

Rain Amount Forecast Monday

Rain Amount Forecast Monday

Well, I was right but wrong.  I had said that the airport would not really represent what you had in your backyard for Saturday morning, but I was looking for 20 or 21.  The airport had 19 while the weather service, the old official site, was 16.  Leitchfield got the booby prize with a low of 11.  Bradfordsville was 12 as was Taylorsville Lake.  Brandenburg was 13.  The other odd man out was the usual co-conspirator of the Louisville was Tell City with 19.  I’m not sure where the thermometer is in Tell City but its usually battling with Louisville’s airport for the warmest location and like the airport is often several degrees warmer than everyone else around it.  Anyway, with clouds over us much of the night, temps only in the mid low to mid 20’s are in the cards for Sunday morning, with the clouds breaking toward daybreak being the only reason we even get that cold.  Dewpoints in the mid teens are the reason why, if you looked at a radar on Saturday night and saw snow, you didn’t have it outside.  The snow falling basically disappeared before it hit the ground.  It’s called sublimation. When a liquid goes to a gas, its called evaporation.  When a solid goes straight to a gas, its called sublimation.  Dry ice sublimates….so did the snow Saturday night.  Sunshine Sunday takes us to the low to mid 50’s on Sunday then a frontal system approaches and Monday brings rain followed by a cold Tuesday.  Right now Thanksgiving still looks decent with partly cloudy skies and seasonal temperatures in the low to mid 50’s.

It Came From Outer Space

It Came From Outer Space

Big Meteor Caught on Tape:  Friday night the folks in western Canada got a big bright surprise.  A meteor came swooping from the sky and it was caught on this video from a cop car video camera.  My guess is that it was from the Leonid Meteor Shower, but if so, it would have been on the tail end of the annual event when the greatest activity was winding down.  This year was forecast to be a less than spectacular year for the Leonids but, it only takes one.  The story here says that officials are still trying to find the remains of the meteor for confirmation.  Maybe it was a UFO.

Couple Of Warm Spots Spoiled It For Everyone

Couple Of Warm Spots Spoiled It For Everyone

October Climate Report: The erroneous data from Russia got looked at again and the numbers are in from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.  Globally, the temperature was .167 above the 20 year average.  September was .161 warmer.  Essentially the same month to month but it’s still warming.  The Russian temperatures were still warmer than they should have been, just not as dramatic as the earlier report.  It was a pretty large area of warm temperatures with a secondary, smaller area northwest of Hudson Bay in Canada.

40% Chance Of Being Warmer...where Does that leave the other 60%?

40% Chance Of Being Warmer...where Does that leave the other 60%?

Update on Winter Forecast:  The Climate Prediction Center has shifted it’s blobs somewhat but we are still in the 40% chance of warmer than average conditions from December through February, which would be a nice change over the past couple of weeks.  It is interesting when you look at the discussion because they talk about no El Nino and La Nina so they are basing this simply on temperature trends.  Couple of problems here. One is the way that this information is typically reported.  You might here that we “are forecast to be warmer than normal.”  Clearly, these guys give statistical probabilities  and they dont have any area greater than 50%. It’s not the CPC’s fault that it gets misreported.  But, the other issue that I have is with relying on “trends.”  I’m not saying that they are wrong because they are experts at climate and I am not.  But, the support is rather thin and I”ve always had a problem with the old 50% forecast. What’s that? That means there is a 50% chance of it being normal or colder, right?   I have yet to see a climate forecast that was more than 55%.

Keep an Eye on your Kids and the internet:  I’m not going to elaborate on this story much because it is said.  This 19 year old in Florida had a live streaming video from his home and said he was going to kill himself.  Some people on the web cheered him on.  He did it for everyone to see. Some were concerned but not enough for someone to call the cops, who tracked down the IP address and found the kid dead.  I’ll leave you with your own thoughts as you watch the story from a Florida TV Station.


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