Don’t Break Out the Sleds Just Yet

NAM 72 Hour Snowfall Accumulation Through Sunday Morning

NAM 72 Hour Snowfall Accumulation Through Sunday Morning

Now, keep in mind that I have been hibernating today. I slept until noon after staying up to watch the

Murray and Dexter look like these two only much bigger

Murray and Dexter look like these two only much bigger

Houston Rockets beat the Phoenix Suns and their cheap shot ways. I did some chores and then Snow White and I went for a little walk to enjoy the relatively warm afternoon. Nit and Wit are having great fun watching the leaves fall from the trees…at least that is when they are awake. Snow White and I visited Murray and Dexter the cool Boston Terriers too.

Now, I see that the early model runs for today are advertising perhaps more in the way of snow for late Saturday. I would suggest that, if this were in January, most people would agree with my assessment that it is largely insignificant. But, given that it is mid November and will be the first snow, well then it takes on bigger meaning. Steve Burgin will be giddy. As you can see from the data above, the NAM is looking at something less than an inch for much of the viewing area and perhaps a shade over an inch to the north. Here is the trouble. First off, the ground temperatures will probably not be below freezing. Also, the extreme low layer of the atmosphere will certainly initially be above freezing and I doubt if it will be precipitating hard enough for it to drag down cold air. So, some of this may fall as rain first and what does fall as snow will more than likely melt.

I’ve just taken a gander and will have a better update later. A lot can change and this data suddenly just showed up as something a little more substantial than previously indicated. But, for now, I’d say that it being largely insignificant still holds water…its just it may be more interesting to look at and still enough to ponder the NOAA long term forecast that it will be a warmer than average winter in our area. What I would do is to watch Cardosi tonight. He’s an ace at this sort of thing. I’ll also put in my two cents on these here pages and try to give some graphics to consider. My other advice would be to take any reports of impending gloom and doom that you hear with a grain of salt. It’s ratings and so there may be a little hype to try and boost viewership and these are the type of situations that don’t generally show themselves at 72 hours. It can go either way but my guess is that it will go the less dramatic route. The greatest concern I would think would be for early church goers as the roads may be wet and temperatures in some areas might get to freezing so some slick spots may be a problem Sunday morning.

We’ll keep you updated as this thing unfolds.


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