Once Mighty Hurricane Paloma Headed To Ash Heep of History


Santa Cruz del Sur Took a Direct Hit

Santa Cruz del Sur Took a Direct Hit

Paloma IR Satellite Image 1110 0215Z

Paloma IR Satellite Image 1110 0215Z

For all intents and purposes, Paloma is dead.  This is really remarkable when you

Paloma NHC Forecast Track 1109 10PM EST

Paloma NHC Forecast Track 1109 10PM EST

consider that 36 hours ago it was pushing 150 mph winds.  What has happened is what I expected would happen and that is the mountains of Cuba took a toll on the low level circulation and,more importantly, the upper flow just blew the top right off of it.  It has gotten separated from its upper support.  You can see on the satellite photo how the action is displaced way to the east of the center of low level circulation.  The storm came ashore as a strong, but weakening hurricane…probably around 135 mph.  Here is a story from CBS with photos and video. Cuba has had a rough go of it this hurricane season as well as other island nations.  The communist island is still trying to recover from Ike and Gustav that collectively destroyed about a third of Cuba’s crops and now this comes on top of the nearly $10 billion in damage from previous storms.  Below is the last discussion from the National Hurricane Center regarding Paloma.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
1000 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

Paloma Spaghetti Model 1110 00Z

Paloma Spaghetti Model 1110 00Z

PALOMA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN
12 HOURS DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER CUBA AND
VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR DISPLACING DEEP CONVECTION
…ALONG WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS…WELL TO THE
EAST NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
CONVECTION…DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAN NOT BE
GENERATED BY TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE…THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 25 KT FOR DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/03 KT. THE REMNANTS OF PALOMA ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO…
AND THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST OR EVEN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS.

Paloma Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1110 00Z

Paloma Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 1110 00Z

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR…MEANDERING OVER LAND
FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS…AND DRY STABLE AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
CIRCULATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS LED TO THE
RAPID DEMISE OF PALOMA. SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS
FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED…THERE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER…UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 30 KT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AROUND THE
CENTER.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION
OCCURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/0300Z 22.0N  78.0W    25 KT…DISSIPATING INLAND
12HR VT     10/1200Z 22.2N  78.1W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
24HR VT     11/0000Z 22.7N  78.2W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     11/1200Z 23.0N  78.4W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     12/0000Z 23.0N  78.8W    20 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     13/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

One Response

  1. […]  for a more recent update on what was once hurricane paloma, including a news story, video and photos from Cuba, CLICK HERE […]

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